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Madmike90


Joined: 25 Jan 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
I don't touch Peppers deal again or it is going to become a dead money albatross in 2 years.

Looks like Melton and a couple of tier 2 OLmen are reasonable expectations.

Man I would love Vollmer, but what can you do.


2015 the Cap is forecast to take a big jump according to the article above...

Quote:
The salary cap is expected to remain mostly flat through 2014, with it finally getting a considerable bump in 2015. Teams may use that 2015 season, when the cap is expected to escalate, to help ease cap issues this year and next.

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AZBearsFan


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Madmike90 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
The cap is going up at least 1.4 million from what they thought maybe a little more which helps.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/02/19/source-cap-will-be-north-of-122-million/


http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-chicago-bears-operating-with-105-million-in-salary-cap-room-20130219,0,6988743.story

Quote:
The NFL has not yet set its salary cap for 2013. It was $120.6 million in 2012 and is expected to move up just slightly to $121 million or perhaps $121.5 million, as reported by Pro Football Talk on Monday. Using $121.5 million as a benchmark, the Bears have roughly $10.5 million in cap space. That means if the team were to place the franchise tag on Pro Bowl defensive tackle Henry Melton at a charge of $8.3 million, it would exhaust the majority of the available space.


Cliff Stein will have to work some magic if we are to sign any big name FAs.

There is certainly some fat to be trimmed with Davis, Spaeth and possibly Hester, and I fully expect Peppers to be restructured to reduce his $17M cap hit significantly. I disagree with Windy that doing so would create an albatross contract down the road - that can be done without back loading a ton of guarantees, especially when the current deal really doesn't have any more guarantees. I wouldn't be surprised to see Tillman's deal extended to reduce the 2013 hit either.

I still think we'd be better off going 2nd tier or even 3rd tier and getting multiple guys than spending the whole budget on one guy. I think we have too many needs for that.
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AZBearsFan


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Double post Embarassed
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WindyCity


Joined: 26 Jun 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Madmike90 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
I don't touch Peppers deal again or it is going to become a dead money albatross in 2 years.

Looks like Melton and a couple of tier 2 OLmen are reasonable expectations.

Man I would love Vollmer, but what can you do.


2015 the Cap is forecast to take a big jump according to the article above...

Quote:
The salary cap is expected to remain mostly flat through 2014, with it finally getting a considerable bump in 2015. Teams may use that 2015 season, when the cap is expected to escalate, to help ease cap issues this year and next.


That is good news because Peppers deal already has decent guarantees worked into it,

2014: 3.3 million
2015: 3.3 million

Anything we do with the remaining 32 million in salary will get stacked on those numbers and could be dead money.

It would be nice if 2015 was a bigger year and we could shed some salary in there.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]
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ChicagoAl


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
I am beginning to believe that we will be going into the 2nd tier of OL talent to fill our needs this season. I think this for a couple of reasons,

1. By spending on a big name like Albert and Levitre you are making a very big commitment that could hurt your cap down the road and we have Cutler to sign next season and Melton this season.

2. Emery was brought in to build through the draft and by spending less on competent starters on the OL he can focus on the true stars coming from the draft. If we sign Levitre for 5 years his deal will be at its biggest when this draft class needs to be re-signed.

2nd Tier Rankings


1. OT Jermon Bushrod [New Orleans]

Has has been solid at LT, but pass protection struggles have left him as a versatile starter and not a top tier LT.

2. OT Sam Baker [Atlanta]

The only true LT on the list, when healthy Baker is a very good pass protector and his price tag will reflect some of his struggles, but he does one thing really well.

3. OT Gosder Cherilus [Detroit]

Big, mean and has held up in a pass happy offense.

4. OG Matt Slauson [NY Jets]

Slauson has th size [6'5" 320lbs] that the Bears are looking for and he allowed 0 sacks last season.

5. OG Ramon Foster [Pittsburgh]

He is big [6'6" 325lbs] and he has started for a couple of seasons and he will come pretty cheap.

6. OG Brandon Moore [NY Jets]

He is the best OG on the list, but at 34 years old he offers a 1-2 year stop gap instead of some development room like others on the list.
Good points.
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ChicagoAl


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MonserinNC wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
MonserinNC wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
I am beginning to believe that we will be going into the 2nd tier of OL talent to fill our needs this season. I think this for a couple of reasons,

1. By spending on a big name like Albert and Levitre you are making a very big commitment that could hurt your cap down the road and we have Cutler to sign next season and Melton this season.

2. Emery was brought in to build through the draft and by spending less on competent starters on the OL he can focus on the true stars coming from the draft. If we sign Levitre for 5 years his deal will be at its biggest when this draft class needs to be re-signed.


This has been my thinking as well, I just dont see a rookie beating out Webb or Carimi in camp. The only 2 rookie options I see would be Warmack or Jones.


I agree at OT we probably need a veteran to beat out Webb or to start at RT.

Bushrod/Baker or Cherilus.

But there are a number of guys on the interior who I think can start day 1 for us. If you are not starting a 1st/2nd round OG then you are no starting any rookie because it is the easiest position to translate in my opinion.


The more I think about it, I could see us drafting an interior OL more and more...Louis is no guarantee to make it back this year and essentially we have a Carimi/Spencer/Scott thing going on as the other OG.

I actually think Warmack would be perfect for us....or Jones
The appeal in Jones is his versatility in addition to his great success. I am afraid the Pack is going to take him if we don't.
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ChicagoAl


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

topwop1 wrote:
Bushrod is just meh, not much of an upgrade over Webb and I have a strong feeling that NO is going to find a way to keep him because they don't have many other options unless they are looking at a rookie in the 1st round, in which I think they're going to focus on defense there anyway with the switch to the 3-4.

If I were Phil Emery I'd try and make a big push for a guy like Louis Vasquez if he hits the open market and then try to draft a guy like Lane Johnson in the 1st. If not, then I think Webb deserves some time to further develop under Kromer's tutelage and is decent enough to be the LT for at least another year. Then they can draft a guy like Jonathan Cooper, or a center prospect in the 2nd to develop for when Garza is done which will be very soon IMO.

Keep in mind that any available LTs in FA are buyer beware. Teams just don't let capable franchise LTs hit the market unless there's something wrong with them that the rest of us don't know. If a guy is capable enough then usually teams will find a way to keep them regardless of $ and cap situation. These guys don't grow on trees.
No, but they do grow LIKE trees.
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AZBearsFan


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]

You're doing it backwards. When you're redoing a vet contract not expecting him to play out the end of it you don't push the guarantees off - you build them into the years you know they'll be on the roster.

Assuming your numbers are right regarding still owing him $9.3M then we need at least that in guarantees on a restructured deal but probably an increase in guarantees since the only way guys will typically agree to a restructuring is if we were guaranteeing more now to save later.

In Peppers' case you don't even really need to change the base salaries - you can use them as the new cap numbers and just accelerate the guarantees. His deal calls for $12.9M, $13.9M and $16.5M in base salary through 2015. What you do is take the 2013 number (the only year we are SURE he will be on the team) and make it FULLY guaranteed. 100%. Then you guarantee, say, $6M of 2014 (when he will probably be on the team but not certainly) then have minimal to no guarantees in 2015 when the deal will either be restructured again or he will be released. Essentially what you've done is reduced his cap number by $5M each of the next 2 years in trade for guaranteeing a 2013 salary you know you're going to pay him anyway plus an additional $5M in guarantees toward a season you fully expect him to play out at a once again favorable cap number.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]

You're doing it backwards. When you're redoing a vet contract not expecting him to play out the end of it you don't push the guarantees off - you build them into the years you know they'll be on the roster.

Assuming your numbers are right regarding still owing him $9.3M then we need at least that in guarantees on a restructured deal but probably an increase in guarantees since the only way guys will typically agree to a restructuring is if we were guaranteeing more now to save later.

In Peppers' case you don't even really need to change the base salaries - you can use them as the new cap numbers and just accelerate the guarantees. His deal calls for $12.9M, $13.9M and $16.5M in base salary through 2015. What you do is take the 2013 number (the only year we are SURE he will be on the team) and make it FULLY guaranteed. 100%. Then you guarantee, say, $6M of 2014 (when he will probably be on the team but not certainly) then have minimal to no guarantees in 2015 when the deal will either be restructured again or he will be released. Essentially what you've done is reduced his cap number by $5M each of the next 2 years in trade for guaranteeing a 2013 salary you know you're going to pay him anyway plus an additional $5M in guarantees toward a season you fully expect him to play out at a once again favorable cap number.


I do not understand how your math works out or how Peppers would agree to it. He still has bonuses owing and money cannot disappear we still need to have 52.7 million on the books in some way shape or form.

Right now

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [16.1 total]
2014: 14 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [17.1 total]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [19.6 total]

How does guaranteeing the 13 million salary in 2013 save us any money?

You have to turn it into guaranteed money and spread it our across the other years. The only way to save money in 2013 is to move it from that year.

In your plan what would the years look like,

2013:
2014:
2015:
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Last edited by WindyCity on Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:37 pm; edited 1 time in total
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AZBearsFan


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]

You're doing it backwards. When you're redoing a vet contract not expecting him to play out the end of it you don't push the guarantees off - you build them into the years you know they'll be on the roster.

Assuming your numbers are right regarding still owing him $9.3M then we need at least that in guarantees on a restructured deal but probably an increase in guarantees since the only way guys will typically agree to a restructuring is if we were guaranteeing more now to save later.

In Peppers' case you don't even really need to change the base salaries - you can use them as the new cap numbers and just accelerate the guarantees. His deal calls for $12.9M, $13.9M and $16.5M in base salary through 2015. What you do is take the 2013 number (the only year we are SURE he will be on the team) and make it FULLY guaranteed. 100%. Then you guarantee, say, $6M of 2014 (when he will probably be on the team but not certainly) then have minimal to no guarantees in 2015 when the deal will either be restructured again or he will be released. Essentially what you've done is reduced his cap number by $5M each of the next 2 years in trade for guaranteeing a 2013 salary you know you're going to pay him anyway plus an additional $5M in guarantees toward a season you fully expect him to play out at a once again favorable cap number.


I don' think your math works out.

Normally you take unguaranteed income and you turn it into guaranteed money and amortize it over the length of the deal. You save money by spreading it out over more years.

I do not understand how your math works out or how Peppers would agree to it.

Right now

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [16.1 total]
2014: 14 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [17.1 total]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [19.6 total]

How does guaranteeing the 13 million salary in 2013 save us any money?

You have to turn it into guaranteed money and spread it our across the other years.

You can amortize a signing bonus over the length of the deal but you don't have to do that. If you're signing a 27 year old QB to a huge new 5 year extension with a huge signing bonus then yeah you do that but if you're restructuring a 33 year old's deal to make it cheaper cap-wise then it's probably to your advantage to take it all right away versus spreading it out specifically to avoid future dead money. I'm not saying to give him a $13M signing bonus though, only to guarantee the $13M. That doesn't have to be in the form of a bonus (see the Briggs restructuring where he got over $8M in guarantees but only $3M as a signing bonus). I would expect that some of that would be in the form of a bonus but again, they don't have to amortize it if they don't wish to do so.

What we don't know (at least not from a source than confirm how it was done) was how they amortized his original deal.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]

You're doing it backwards. When you're redoing a vet contract not expecting him to play out the end of it you don't push the guarantees off - you build them into the years you know they'll be on the roster.

Assuming your numbers are right regarding still owing him $9.3M then we need at least that in guarantees on a restructured deal but probably an increase in guarantees since the only way guys will typically agree to a restructuring is if we were guaranteeing more now to save later.

In Peppers' case you don't even really need to change the base salaries - you can use them as the new cap numbers and just accelerate the guarantees. His deal calls for $12.9M, $13.9M and $16.5M in base salary through 2015. What you do is take the 2013 number (the only year we are SURE he will be on the team) and make it FULLY guaranteed. 100%. Then you guarantee, say, $6M of 2014 (when he will probably be on the team but not certainly) then have minimal to no guarantees in 2015 when the deal will either be restructured again or he will be released. Essentially what you've done is reduced his cap number by $5M each of the next 2 years in trade for guaranteeing a 2013 salary you know you're going to pay him anyway plus an additional $5M in guarantees toward a season you fully expect him to play out at a once again favorable cap number.


I don' think your math works out.

Normally you take unguaranteed income and you turn it into guaranteed money and amortize it over the length of the deal. You save money by spreading it out over more years.

I do not understand how your math works out or how Peppers would agree to it.

Right now

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [16.1 total]
2014: 14 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [17.1 total]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [19.6 total]

How does guaranteeing the 13 million salary in 2013 save us any money?

You have to turn it into guaranteed money and spread it our across the other years.

You can amortize a signing bonus over the length of the deal but you don't have to do that. If you're signing a 27 year old QB to a huge new 5 year extension with a huge signing bonus then yeah you do that but if you're restructuring a 33 year old's deal to make it cheaper cap-wise then it's probably to your advantage to take it all right away versus spreading it out specifically to avoid future dead money. I'm not saying to give him a $13M signing bonus though, only to guarantee the $13M. That doesn't have to be in the form of a bonus (see the Briggs restructuring where he got over $8M in guarantees but only $3M as a signing bonus). I would expect that some of that would be in the form of a bonus but again, they don't have to amortize it if they don't wish to do so.

What we don't know (at least not from a source than confirm how it was done) was how they amortized his original deal.


Those are the number off of sportrac so I think they are accurate.

What does the deal look like in your plan

2013:
2014:
2015:

We still need to make 52 million dollars that he is owed for into 3 years.

Because I do not see where the money is moving in your plan?
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 19, 2013 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

WindyCity wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
This is what we have to work with Peppers,

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed
2014: 14 salary/3.1 guaranteed
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed

Lets say we cut Peppers 2013 salary in half and make it guarantees 3.3 and 3.2 respectively.

2013: 6.5 salary/ 3.1 guaranteed [9.6]
2014: 14 salary/ 6.4 guaranteed [12.7 cost to cut] [20.4]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 6.3 guaranteed [6.3 cost to cut] [22.8]

You're doing it backwards. When you're redoing a vet contract not expecting him to play out the end of it you don't push the guarantees off - you build them into the years you know they'll be on the roster.

Assuming your numbers are right regarding still owing him $9.3M then we need at least that in guarantees on a restructured deal but probably an increase in guarantees since the only way guys will typically agree to a restructuring is if we were guaranteeing more now to save later.

In Peppers' case you don't even really need to change the base salaries - you can use them as the new cap numbers and just accelerate the guarantees. His deal calls for $12.9M, $13.9M and $16.5M in base salary through 2015. What you do is take the 2013 number (the only year we are SURE he will be on the team) and make it FULLY guaranteed. 100%. Then you guarantee, say, $6M of 2014 (when he will probably be on the team but not certainly) then have minimal to no guarantees in 2015 when the deal will either be restructured again or he will be released. Essentially what you've done is reduced his cap number by $5M each of the next 2 years in trade for guaranteeing a 2013 salary you know you're going to pay him anyway plus an additional $5M in guarantees toward a season you fully expect him to play out at a once again favorable cap number.


I don' think your math works out.

Normally you take unguaranteed income and you turn it into guaranteed money and amortize it over the length of the deal. You save money by spreading it out over more years.

I do not understand how your math works out or how Peppers would agree to it.

Right now

2013: 13 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [16.1 total]
2014: 14 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [17.1 total]
2015: 16.5 salary/ 3.1 signing bonus [19.6 total]

How does guaranteeing the 13 million salary in 2013 save us any money?

You have to turn it into guaranteed money and spread it our across the other years.

You can amortize a signing bonus over the length of the deal but you don't have to do that. If you're signing a 27 year old QB to a huge new 5 year extension with a huge signing bonus then yeah you do that but if you're restructuring a 33 year old's deal to make it cheaper cap-wise then it's probably to your advantage to take it all right away versus spreading it out specifically to avoid future dead money. I'm not saying to give him a $13M signing bonus though, only to guarantee the $13M. That doesn't have to be in the form of a bonus (see the Briggs restructuring where he got over $8M in guarantees but only $3M as a signing bonus). I would expect that some of that would be in the form of a bonus but again, they don't have to amortize it if they don't wish to do so.

What we don't know (at least not from a source than confirm how it was done) was how they amortized his original deal.


Those are the number off of sportrac so I think they are accurate.

What does the deal look like in your plan

2013:
2014:
2015:

Because I do not see where the money is moving in your plan?

Sportrac shows $9,749,000 in remaining bonus money on the current deal's amortization and $43M in actual money (not cap dollar money) due him the next 3 years, so something like this:

2013: $10.75M base (inclusive of full $9.749M of rollover amortized bonus), fully guaranteed, plus a $2.25M signing bonus, amortized.
Cap Hit $11.5M ($10.75M salary, $750k bonus

2014: $12.5M base, $6.5M of which is guaranteed (including remaining $1.749M carryover bonus amortization).
Cap Hit $13.25M ($12.5M salary, $750k bonus)

2015: $14M base, none of which is guaranteed, with a $5.5M roster bonus due March 15th.
Cap Hit: $20.25M ($14M salary, $5.5M bonus, $750k bonus)

Total: 3 years, $43M, $19.5 of which is guaranteed (most or all of which is new guarantees money since I'm pretty sure he has actually received the guaranteed money from the 2010 contract, and approximately $7M more in guaranteed money than he was set to earn in actual dollars (not inclusive of prorated bonus which he got 3 years ago) in 2013.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

But Peppers is owed 52 million in the next 3 years?

You still have to work in 9 million.

The sportrac site is accurate as far as I know to total cap hit which is his salary plus his amortized signing bonus which totals 52 million for 2013, 14 and 15.
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WindyCity


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PostPosted: Wed Feb 20, 2013 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Peppers cap hits

2013: 16.183
2014: 17.183
2015: 19.683

53.049 million dollars is owed to him 9 of which is amortized signing bonus and guaranteed. But any restructure has to have 53.049 million worth of cap hits accounted for. The bonus was paid but 9 million of it is still on the books and counts against the cap.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/chicago-bears/julius-peppers/
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