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clarkfn2284


Joined: 07 Jan 2007
Posts: 3198
Location: Modesto,CA
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
Ataal wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
Chrissooner49er wrote:
As a friend of mine put it (who is not an 9ers fan, by the way) when he found out how the 9ers lost: "There is no substitute for experience." Alex would not have made the mistake Kaepernicus did that put the Rams back into that game.


My cop friend who never even liked Alex much sent me a text after the game saying "Alex!Alex!Alex!" and we texted about it for a while. This just feels pretty crappy for me, and it's not even remotely about who was right or wrong. Harbaugh doing what he did just feels... wrong. I hope we win out.. I hope Ck7 is elite one day for us.. I really do. But the timing of this feels.. wrong... and I no longer have that warm and fuzzy SB vision in my head any time soon.



While I like Colin a lot, I've been most critical about the timing. Felt wrong to me from the start. Seems like the "hot hand" keeps getting colder. I don't know if that's because of coaching, trying to open up the playbook because of the "new toy" they have, or people have more tape on Kaep now.

I don't know how much authority Colin's been given on the field to change plays, but that 3rd and 3 inside our own 10 should have been changed. The absolute best we could have gotten on that play after reading the defense was 0 yards gained, and most likely would have lost yardage. Which, wouldn't have been the end of the world with Andy Lee on the team, but throw in the bad toss by Kaep and Ginn going all CSI on the football, and we let the Rams back in with 8 points.

In Harbaugh I trust, but I don't feel we're a Superbowl team right now. I think we should've stuck with experience this close to the playoffs.


I honestly haven't felt like a Superbowl team since the loss to the Giants. Not to sound cliche, but to be the best you have to beat the best, and we didn't even come close to competing with the Giant's. There's a good chance we'll see them in the NFCCG again, and I'm not so sure the outcome would be different. Many of you are knocking experience, but Alex had none going into last year and he did alright. Kaep seems like a strong individual, and once he gets all the butterflies out, then I think he'll come out and dominate.



Alex beat the Giants last year, in the regular season. Then, we all agree the Giants didn't deserve to win in the playoffs. We gave them a couple of fumbles that should never have been, and there was the non-fumble on Bradshaw too. That one game against the Giants was terrible. Everything went terribly. The entire team sucked, Alex included. But I still felt like a superbowl team after that game. With Kap, I'm scared of an ill-timed interception in the fourth quarter, or a fumble on a scramble returned for a TD. He might pull it off. But the odds aren't really in his favor.
Some people liked to point out Kap's energy on the sideline and his demeanor, and how he high fived teammates and all.. Did you see his face on the sideline during the 4th quarter? His face said: "Damn, I just lost us that game". He's not ready. If there's one thing Alex has always had, it's mental toughness and an unbreakable character. The kind of character that allowed him to make two TD drives in the last 4 minutes of the saints game. Does Kaepernick have the same kind of character, and is it the right time to find it out?


please explain the formula after 3 games that explains your statements that i bolded. That is such a generalization that it clearly shows your bias and lack of depth to see past your personal feelings in this situation.

The second bolded one is even worse. I love how everybody knows what someone is thinking on a sideline in St. Louis based on a facial expression. What a joke of a interpretation.

I agree with you on Alex's mental toughness, but to imply that Colin may not have that same mental toughness is unfair because we havent been given a large enough sample size. From what i have seen he definitely has the ability to bounce back. At clutch moments yesterday he led the team into would be game winning scenarios 2 times.[/b]
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rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clarkfn2284 wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
Ataal wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
Chrissooner49er wrote:
As a friend of mine put it (who is not an 9ers fan, by the way) when he found out how the 9ers lost: "There is no substitute for experience." Alex would not have made the mistake Kaepernicus did that put the Rams back into that game.


My cop friend who never even liked Alex much sent me a text after the game saying "Alex!Alex!Alex!" and we texted about it for a while. This just feels pretty crappy for me, and it's not even remotely about who was right or wrong. Harbaugh doing what he did just feels... wrong. I hope we win out.. I hope Ck7 is elite one day for us.. I really do. But the timing of this feels.. wrong... and I no longer have that warm and fuzzy SB vision in my head any time soon.



While I like Colin a lot, I've been most critical about the timing. Felt wrong to me from the start. Seems like the "hot hand" keeps getting colder. I don't know if that's because of coaching, trying to open up the playbook because of the "new toy" they have, or people have more tape on Kaep now.

I don't know how much authority Colin's been given on the field to change plays, but that 3rd and 3 inside our own 10 should have been changed. The absolute best we could have gotten on that play after reading the defense was 0 yards gained, and most likely would have lost yardage. Which, wouldn't have been the end of the world with Andy Lee on the team, but throw in the bad toss by Kaep and Ginn going all CSI on the football, and we let the Rams back in with 8 points.

In Harbaugh I trust, but I don't feel we're a Superbowl team right now. I think we should've stuck with experience this close to the playoffs.


I honestly haven't felt like a Superbowl team since the loss to the Giants. Not to sound cliche, but to be the best you have to beat the best, and we didn't even come close to competing with the Giant's. There's a good chance we'll see them in the NFCCG again, and I'm not so sure the outcome would be different. Many of you are knocking experience, but Alex had none going into last year and he did alright. Kaep seems like a strong individual, and once he gets all the butterflies out, then I think he'll come out and dominate.



Alex beat the Giants last year, in the regular season. Then, we all agree the Giants didn't deserve to win in the playoffs. We gave them a couple of fumbles that should never have been, and there was the non-fumble on Bradshaw too. That one game against the Giants was terrible. Everything went terribly. The entire team sucked, Alex included. But I still felt like a superbowl team after that game. With Kap, I'm scared of an ill-timed interception in the fourth quarter, or a fumble on a scramble returned for a TD. He might pull it off. But the odds aren't really in his favor.
Some people liked to point out Kap's energy on the sideline and his demeanor, and how he high fived teammates and all.. Did you see his face on the sideline during the 4th quarter? His face said: "Damn, I just lost us that game". He's not ready. If there's one thing Alex has always had, it's mental toughness and an unbreakable character. The kind of character that allowed him to make two TD drives in the last 4 minutes of the saints game. Does Kaepernick have the same kind of character, and is it the right time to find it out?


please explain the formula after 3 games that explains your statements that i bolded. That is such a generalization that it clearly shows your bias and lack of depth to see past your personal feelings in this situation.

The second bolded one is even worse. I love how everybody knows what someone is thinking on a sideline in St. Louis based on a facial expression. What a joke of a interpretation.

I agree with you on Alex's mental toughness, but to imply that Colin may not have that same mental toughness is unfair because we havent been given a large enough sample size. From what i have seen he definitely has the ability to bounce back. At clutch moments yesterday he led the team into would be game winning scenarios 2 times.[/b]



Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.

What are the odds that an inexperienced QB win the Superbowl, against the odds of an experienced QB? Sure, there are the Bradys of this world (and who knows, if Bledsoe hadn't played well in the conference championship when Brady was injured, maybe Brady would enver have had a chance to play that Superbowl), but all QBs usually lose a playoff game before winning the superbowl. Eli lost in the playoffs, before winning the Superbowl. Peyton lost in the playoffs before winning. Drew Brees lost in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers lost in the playoffs. So, really, we're going to go in the playoffs with a QB who has started 7-8 games, and expect him to play flawlessly? Sure, he's exciting. But we would have lost last week, if it weren't for the defense, and defense should have won us the game, yesterday, until Kap just gave it to the Rams. He needs experience, I get it. But I think the right moment to gain experience would have been Week 1 of 2013. This way, he would have had the whole year to work out the kinks, and would have been a proven performer come playoff time. Maybe he can do it this year too. I sure hope so. I sure hope the last four games of the season will be enough to get him to the point were he can be who we need him to be. But are the odds in his favor? Hell no.

How does my statement reflect on my bias and lack of depth? And tell me, if everyone else's analysis of Alex's body language is a valid argument on this board, why can't my observation on Kaepernick's body language be a valid argument either?
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.


I could be wrong, but I don't recall people complaining about Alex's sideline body language. I think people were talking about his body language in games, how he's start sulking when things went wrong, it's like he didn't want to be there.

I can only speak for myself, but I've never knocked Alex's "quietness", on the sideline, but more so praising Kaep's fire and excitement.
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Ataal


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sideline presence is a bit skewed, in my opinion. Unless we're actually at the game and sitting close enough, the only time we see these guys on the sideline is when the network decides to show us. And, that's usually only when they see frustration from someone. They panned to Alex quite a bit this last game. He was checking the playbook often, listening to the radio in his helmet, etc... He seemed frustrated. And, rightly so, because his team wasn't doing well. I'd expect that frustration from anyone. You could make the argument that your quarterback should not show his frustration, but that's a very high standard to place upon someone. Even Rodgers has looked ticked off after a bad play.

Kaepernick does seem to show more "fire" on the sideline, but who's to say Alex hasn't done the same? We'd never know unless the network showed us.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.

What are the odds that an inexperienced QB win the Superbowl, against the odds of an experienced QB? Sure, there are the Bradys of this world (and who knows, if Bledsoe hadn't played well in the conference championship when Brady was injured, maybe Brady would enver have had a chance to play that Superbowl), but all QBs usually lose a playoff game before winning the superbowl. Eli lost in the playoffs, before winning the Superbowl. Peyton lost in the playoffs before winning. Drew Brees lost in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers lost in the playoffs. So, really, we're going to go in the playoffs with a QB who has started 7-8 games, and expect him to play flawlessly? Sure, he's exciting. But we would have lost last week, if it weren't for the defense, and defense should have won us the game, yesterday, until Kap just gave it to the Rams. He needs experience, I get it. But I think the right moment to gain experience would have been Week 1 of 2013. This way, he would have had the whole year to work out the kinks, and would have been a proven performer come playoff time. Maybe he can do it this year too. I sure hope so. I sure hope the last four games of the season will be enough to get him to the point were he can be who we need him to be. But are the odds in his favor? Hell no.

How does my statement reflect on my bias and lack of depth? And tell me, if everyone else's analysis of Alex's body language is a valid argument on this board, why can't my observation on Kaepernick's body language be a valid argument either?


I agree with everything except the bold which I incredibly dislike. If you take the 14 points away that the defense scored, it's still a 21-17 game and the offense isn't playing keep-away from the Saints, they're trying to score. There is no way to prove that we would have been settling for two field goals (both of which were missed) if we were down by 4 points. He only had one pass on those last two drives, which means all of his passing yardage came before we were in kill-the-clock mode (2 drives). The fact that the defense scored those points dictated that we needed to run out the clock, nothing about how the game would have ended otherwise. If both of those touchdowns came while we were losing in the 4th quarter, you may have a point. However, with the game tied 14-14, Kaepernick drove the defense down the field to go up 21-14 to start the third (51 passing yards and the TD were his). Then the second defensive TD came to put us up 28-14. Kaepernick was moving the ball fine. His second drive of the half was halted by 2 penalties, then he drove the team down the field from our 6 for a field goal, and the other two drives of the half were missed field goals as we were trying to tack on to the 31-21 lead.

The defense didn't bail him out. They played well and held the Saints to 21 points. The offense did enough to put the team in a position to win and hold onto the win as well.
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clarkfn2284


Joined: 07 Jan 2007
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Location: Modesto,CA
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
clarkfn2284 wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
Ataal wrote:
oldman9er wrote:
Chrissooner49er wrote:
As a friend of mine put it (who is not an 9ers fan, by the way) when he found out how the 9ers lost: "There is no substitute for experience." Alex would not have made the mistake Kaepernicus did that put the Rams back into that game.


My cop friend who never even liked Alex much sent me a text after the game saying "Alex!Alex!Alex!" and we texted about it for a while. This just feels pretty crappy for me, and it's not even remotely about who was right or wrong. Harbaugh doing what he did just feels... wrong. I hope we win out.. I hope Ck7 is elite one day for us.. I really do. But the timing of this feels.. wrong... and I no longer have that warm and fuzzy SB vision in my head any time soon.



While I like Colin a lot, I've been most critical about the timing. Felt wrong to me from the start. Seems like the "hot hand" keeps getting colder. I don't know if that's because of coaching, trying to open up the playbook because of the "new toy" they have, or people have more tape on Kaep now.

I don't know how much authority Colin's been given on the field to change plays, but that 3rd and 3 inside our own 10 should have been changed. The absolute best we could have gotten on that play after reading the defense was 0 yards gained, and most likely would have lost yardage. Which, wouldn't have been the end of the world with Andy Lee on the team, but throw in the bad toss by Kaep and Ginn going all CSI on the football, and we let the Rams back in with 8 points.

In Harbaugh I trust, but I don't feel we're a Superbowl team right now. I think we should've stuck with experience this close to the playoffs.


I honestly haven't felt like a Superbowl team since the loss to the Giants. Not to sound cliche, but to be the best you have to beat the best, and we didn't even come close to competing with the Giant's. There's a good chance we'll see them in the NFCCG again, and I'm not so sure the outcome would be different. Many of you are knocking experience, but Alex had none going into last year and he did alright. Kaep seems like a strong individual, and once he gets all the butterflies out, then I think he'll come out and dominate.



Alex beat the Giants last year, in the regular season. Then, we all agree the Giants didn't deserve to win in the playoffs. We gave them a couple of fumbles that should never have been, and there was the non-fumble on Bradshaw too. That one game against the Giants was terrible. Everything went terribly. The entire team sucked, Alex included. But I still felt like a superbowl team after that game. With Kap, I'm scared of an ill-timed interception in the fourth quarter, or a fumble on a scramble returned for a TD. He might pull it off. But the odds aren't really in his favor.
Some people liked to point out Kap's energy on the sideline and his demeanor, and how he high fived teammates and all.. Did you see his face on the sideline during the 4th quarter? His face said: "Damn, I just lost us that game". He's not ready. If there's one thing Alex has always had, it's mental toughness and an unbreakable character. The kind of character that allowed him to make two TD drives in the last 4 minutes of the saints game. Does Kaepernick have the same kind of character, and is it the right time to find it out?


please explain the formula after 3 games that explains your statements that i bolded. That is such a generalization that it clearly shows your bias and lack of depth to see past your personal feelings in this situation.

The second bolded one is even worse. I love how everybody knows what someone is thinking on a sideline in St. Louis based on a facial expression. What a joke of a interpretation.

I agree with you on Alex's mental toughness, but to imply that Colin may not have that same mental toughness is unfair because we havent been given a large enough sample size. From what i have seen he definitely has the ability to bounce back. At clutch moments yesterday he led the team into would be game winning scenarios 2 times.[/b]



Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.

What are the odds that an inexperienced QB win the Superbowl, against the odds of an experienced QB? Sure, there are the Bradys of this world (and who knows, if Bledsoe hadn't played well in the conference championship when Brady was injured, maybe Brady would enver have had a chance to play that Superbowl), but all QBs usually lose a playoff game before winning the superbowl. Eli lost in the playoffs, before winning the Superbowl. Peyton lost in the playoffs before winning. Drew Brees lost in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers lost in the playoffs. So, really, we're going to go in the playoffs with a QB who has started 7-8 games, and expect him to play flawlessly? Sure, he's exciting. But we would have lost last week, if it weren't for the defense, and defense should have won us the game, yesterday, until Kap just gave it to the Rams. He needs experience, I get it. But I think the right moment to gain experience would have been Week 1 of 2013. This way, he would have had the whole year to work out the kinks, and would have been a proven performer come playoff time. Maybe he can do it this year too. I sure hope so. I sure hope the last four games of the season will be enough to get him to the point were he can be who we need him to be. But are the odds in his favor? Hell no.

How does my statement reflect on my bias and lack of depth? And tell me, if everyone else's analysis of Alex's body language is a valid argument on this board, why can't my observation on Kaepernick's body language be a valid argument either?


Who cares if others dont like Alex's demeanor on the sideline? It doesnt make it a correct judgement. So two wrongs make a right? Thats stupid logic. Like Ataal said we have no clue about what is happening between someone's ears. Therefore its a ridiculous statement to make because it has zero factual backing.

In terms of Kaep's odds of winning the Super Bowl this year..... if he goes 4-0 and finishes 6-1 in his starts does that change anything? No. Does Alex being in an NFC title game increase his odds? No. Odds are made from educated guesses.

Using that logic Alex's odds are real bad because no QB named Smith has ever won the Super Bowl. There always has to be a first. When is Kaep considered to be experienced enough in order to have the odds in his favor to win a Super Bowl then?

Does he have things to learn and experience? Absolutely. Im willing to watch him experience it because he has shown in a small sample size that he can handle the adversity(that he has had so far). It's what makes it so interesting.

Also, Alex had 7 years of NFL experience and went out and beat the Saints in his first playoff game so these things are not beyond the realm of possibility.

Your bias is so clear because the only thing you continue repeating is that there is a double standard when it comes to comparisons to Kaep and Smith. Just dont act like there isnt a bias.

I dont care if you are a Smith guy, i get it, i have seen enough of Alex to know that i've seen too much. I think he has played well the past year and a half. I'm just not against seeing what is there with Kaep and from what i've seen it looks pretty intriguing.

Lastly, is the timing ideal? Not for me necessarily, but im not at the team facility and im not Jim Harbaugh and this decision is not so obviously absurd(as seen by the split amongst fans and analysts) that i feel the need to question it. You want to? You dont need anyones permission to do so, but lets try and keep our tinted shades off and not discredit what any of the guys involved have done to this point.
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rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
But the odds aren't really in his favor.


clarkfn2284 wrote:
please explain the formula after 3 games that explains your statements that i bolded. That is such a generalization that it clearly shows your bias and lack of depth to see past your personal feelings in this situation.


You see bias in Rudy's statements, do you? You think he's the one showing lack of depth in his football analysis? OK then if you're willing to do some research please tell us all how many playoff games have been won by second year or rookie QBs with a grand total of less than 8 games of total NFL experience.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
49ers4life wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
49ers4life wrote:
Worst decision ever! I honestly think Alex Smith will take us to the super bowl this year! We all know he doesn't put up WOW stats, but the dude can play and manage the playclock. He's a smart QB, I don't care if he doesn't throw 5 tds or 400 yards in a game, he wins game!!!!! He prove it in every game he played this season. I think any team would've destroyed the saints d, look how poorly they played all year long. I hope Alex Smith wins his job back because the only chance we have is Smith back at the helms! Not a big fan of Colin Kaepernick!


I guess Kaep's long drive that ate up 9 minutes is due to his inability to manage a play clock? Apparently Kaep wins games too 2-0 so far in his young career.


In terms of anyone destroying the Saints defense, the Falcons sure seemed to have issues with them.


Let's revise that record buddy, make that 2-1 Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


If you look at the date of the post, it was obviously before today. He's still 2-1, and it's a winning record.


Let's not forget he also played 3 and a half quarters, which is just short of a full game, in the first Rams game. Yes, when he came in we were 7 down. But that's like a team taking the opening kickoff and using up 7 or 8 minutes to get a score. Then our QB comes in and he's got 3 and a half quarters to make up the 7 and give us a win. That didn't happen.

It's not all on him since Alex played some. But he had more than an adequate chance to pull that one out. Remember Alex was near the top of the league last year in late game come from behind victories, not to mention what he did in the NO playoff game. So I'm thinking he's closer to 2-1-1 than to just 2-1.

Bottom line is that Kap played one full game plus 3 and a half quarters of another against at team with a losing record and we're 0-1-1 in thos two games.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.

What are the odds that an inexperienced QB win the Superbowl, against the odds of an experienced QB? Sure, there are the Bradys of this world (and who knows, if Bledsoe hadn't played well in the conference championship when Brady was injured, maybe Brady would enver have had a chance to play that Superbowl), but all QBs usually lose a playoff game before winning the superbowl. Eli lost in the playoffs, before winning the Superbowl. Peyton lost in the playoffs before winning. Drew Brees lost in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers lost in the playoffs. So, really, we're going to go in the playoffs with a QB who has started 7-8 games, and expect him to play flawlessly? Sure, he's exciting. But we would have lost last week, if it weren't for the defense, and defense should have won us the game, yesterday, until Kap just gave it to the Rams. He needs experience, I get it. But I think the right moment to gain experience would have been Week 1 of 2013. This way, he would have had the whole year to work out the kinks, and would have been a proven performer come playoff time. Maybe he can do it this year too. I sure hope so. I sure hope the last four games of the season will be enough to get him to the point were he can be who we need him to be. But are the odds in his favor? Hell no.

How does my statement reflect on my bias and lack of depth? And tell me, if everyone else's analysis of Alex's body language is a valid argument on this board, why can't my observation on Kaepernick's body language be a valid argument either?


I agree with everything except the bold which I incredibly dislike. If you take the 14 points away that the defense scored, it's still a 21-17 game and the offense isn't playing keep-away from the Saints, they're trying to score. There is no way to prove that we would have been settling for two field goals (both of which were missed) if we were down by 4 points. He only had one pass on those last two drives, which means all of his passing yardage came before we were in kill-the-clock mode (2 drives). The fact that the defense scored those points dictated that we needed to run out the clock, nothing about how the game would have ended otherwise. If both of those touchdowns came while we were losing in the 4th quarter, you may have a point. However, with the game tied 14-14, Kaepernick drove the defense down the field to go up 21-14 to start the third (51 passing yards and the TD were his). Then the second defensive TD came to put us up 28-14. Kaepernick was moving the ball fine. His second drive of the half was halted by 2 penalties, then he drove the team down the field from our 6 for a field goal, and the other two drives of the half were missed field goals as we were trying to tack on to the 31-21 lead.

The defense didn't bail him out. They played well and held the Saints to 21 points. The offense did enough to put the team in a position to win and hold onto the win as well.


I agree with this. If you take away a play early in a game you never know what the team would be doing differently later in the game because of that play. So it's not fair to say the two pick 6's won the game for us. It is fair to say though that they made the game a whole lot easier to win than if they hadn't happened.
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clarkfn2284


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
But the odds aren't really in his favor.


clarkfn2284 wrote:
please explain the formula after 3 games that explains your statements that i bolded. That is such a generalization that it clearly shows your bias and lack of depth to see past your personal feelings in this situation.


You see bias in Rudy's statements, do you? You think he's the one showing lack of depth in his football analysis? OK then if you're willing to do some research please tell us all how many playoff games have been won by second year or rookie QBs with a grand total of less than 8 games of total NFL experience.


yeah i do, i think i made that pretty clear.....

well let's see you would ask this question because you know no QB has won the Super Bowl as arookie, but i will say that our very own Joe Montana won the Super Bowl in his first time in the playoffs, as did Brady and Roethlisberger. Doug Williams, though not a rookie, inly started in 2 games in 1987 and went on to be named the starter for the Washington Redskins and win Super Bowl XXII.

So there is that. None of them were rookies, but they wouldnt be what i would call experienced when it came to playoff football...... neither was Alex by the way.

remember last year when all we heard from the Saints fans was that Alex couldnt win that game because he was a game manager and didnt have the playoff experience.....its hypocritcal to do the same in this situation when we all so vehemently refused to hear it last year, but i value being consistent i guess.
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NextBigThing wrote:
rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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clarkfn2284


Joined: 07 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

and to actually answer your rookie QB playoff wins question......


Shaun King TB 1999

Ben Roethlisberger Pit 2004

Joe Flaaco Bal 2008 with a rookie head coach

Mark Sanchez NYJ 2009

and just last year

TJ Yates HOU 2011

so............ you were saying?
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NextBigThing wrote:
rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
rudyZ wrote:
Hey, I wasn't the one who used to complain about the way Alex looked on the sideline. I've read it several times, how he doesn't bring energy or tries to rally his guys. Now, when I see Kaepernick on the sideline doing even worse, it shouldn't be brought up? Double standard.

What are the odds that an inexperienced QB win the Superbowl, against the odds of an experienced QB? Sure, there are the Bradys of this world (and who knows, if Bledsoe hadn't played well in the conference championship when Brady was injured, maybe Brady would enver have had a chance to play that Superbowl), but all QBs usually lose a playoff game before winning the superbowl. Eli lost in the playoffs, before winning the Superbowl. Peyton lost in the playoffs before winning. Drew Brees lost in the playoffs. Aaron Rodgers lost in the playoffs. So, really, we're going to go in the playoffs with a QB who has started 7-8 games, and expect him to play flawlessly? Sure, he's exciting. But we would have lost last week, if it weren't for the defense, and defense should have won us the game, yesterday, until Kap just gave it to the Rams. He needs experience, I get it. But I think the right moment to gain experience would have been Week 1 of 2013. This way, he would have had the whole year to work out the kinks, and would have been a proven performer come playoff time. Maybe he can do it this year too. I sure hope so. I sure hope the last four games of the season will be enough to get him to the point were he can be who we need him to be. But are the odds in his favor? Hell no.

How does my statement reflect on my bias and lack of depth? And tell me, if everyone else's analysis of Alex's body language is a valid argument on this board, why can't my observation on Kaepernick's body language be a valid argument either?


I agree with everything except the bold which I incredibly dislike. If you take the 14 points away that the defense scored, it's still a 21-17 game and the offense isn't playing keep-away from the Saints, they're trying to score. There is no way to prove that we would have been settling for two field goals (both of which were missed) if we were down by 4 points. He only had one pass on those last two drives, which means all of his passing yardage came before we were in kill-the-clock mode (2 drives). The fact that the defense scored those points dictated that we needed to run out the clock, nothing about how the game would have ended otherwise. If both of those touchdowns came while we were losing in the 4th quarter, you may have a point. However, with the game tied 14-14, Kaepernick drove the defense down the field to go up 21-14 to start the third (51 passing yards and the TD were his). Then the second defensive TD came to put us up 28-14. Kaepernick was moving the ball fine. His second drive of the half was halted by 2 penalties, then he drove the team down the field from our 6 for a field goal, and the other two drives of the half were missed field goals as we were trying to tack on to the 31-21 lead.

The defense didn't bail him out. They played well and held the Saints to 21 points. The offense did enough to put the team in a position to win and hold onto the win as well.


I agree with this. If you take away a play early in a game you never know what the team would be doing differently later in the game because of that play. So it's not fair to say the two pick 6's won the game for us. It is fair to say though that they made the game a whole lot easier to win than if they hadn't happened.



When I say the defense won us that game, I'm not talking only about the 14 points they scored. Sure, take away the points and we still win. But those two drives that were terminated with defensive drives are potentially drives that could have resulted in offensive points, especially for a team like the Saints. We're talking about a potential 28 points shift, not just a 14 points shift. Maybe we could have gotten the ball back without allowing the points, and we would have won by a closer margin. But it's still the defense having an impact. Against St. Louis, the offense gave up as many points as the defense did... and here's the funny thing: OFFENSES AREN'T SUPPOSED TO GIVE UP POINTS! Offenses are supposed to score them. So the offense is doubly at fault here, first for not scoring enough, and second for giving up any. So yeah, the defense has done more than its fair share in the last three games.
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clarkfn2284


Joined: 07 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
49ers4life wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
49ers4life wrote:
Worst decision ever! I honestly think Alex Smith will take us to the super bowl this year! We all know he doesn't put up WOW stats, but the dude can play and manage the playclock. He's a smart QB, I don't care if he doesn't throw 5 tds or 400 yards in a game, he wins game!!!!! He prove it in every game he played this season. I think any team would've destroyed the saints d, look how poorly they played all year long. I hope Alex Smith wins his job back because the only chance we have is Smith back at the helms! Not a big fan of Colin Kaepernick!


I guess Kaep's long drive that ate up 9 minutes is due to his inability to manage a play clock? Apparently Kaep wins games too 2-0 so far in his young career.


In terms of anyone destroying the Saints defense, the Falcons sure seemed to have issues with them.


Let's revise that record buddy, make that 2-1 Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


If you look at the date of the post, it was obviously before today. He's still 2-1, and it's a winning record.


Let's not forget he also played 3 and a half quarters, which is just short of a full game, in the first Rams game. Yes, when he came in we were 7 down. But that's like a team taking the opening kickoff and using up 7 or 8 minutes to get a score. Then our QB comes in and he's got 3 and a half quarters to make up the 7 and give us a win. That didn't happen.

It's not all on him since Alex played some. But he had more than an adequate chance to pull that one out. Remember Alex was near the top of the league last year in late game come from behind victories, not to mention what he did in the NO playoff game. So I'm thinking he's closer to 2-1-1 than to just 2-1.

Bottom line is that Kap played one full game plus 3 and a half quarters of another against at team with a losing record and we're 0-1-1 in thos two games.


Bottom line is he is 2-1 as a starter...... he played very well against the "vaunted" Bears defense and he went toe to toe with the Saints and came out on top, but the bias clouds the memory of this and that 1 loss because it's Monday morning QB time sticks out..........
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NextBigThing wrote:
rice wasn't close to do as good as his stats would lead one to assume


okie dokie!!! He only had 1200 rec yards at 40, but he clearly isnt as good as it appears.
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CaptainKaep7


Joined: 11 Nov 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We would have won if Harbaugh could have actually challenged a scoring drive but he couldn't so the safety counted.


Hi Guys.
Go 49ers.
Go Sexy Kaep.
Go Beautiful Alexis.
We'll still win guys.
Laughing

Superbowl?
Who knows, Harbaugh sees things we don't. Kaep made mistakes, Alex has made mistakes too. We've seen it. It is just one game, do we need to panic? Somewhat, just for the fact we're only 1.5 games in first in our division. But I believe Kaep gives us the same chance of winning during the regular season as Alex does. But Alex has two playoff games, one where he looked amazing, and one where he and the team looked awful. I say ride it out with Kaep, stay committed. We've witness Alex for what, 8 seasons now? His time will come up because a "conservative" QB may not be able to win us it all in this league now.

Bye guys.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 6:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

clarkfn2284 wrote:
and to actually answer your rookie QB playoff wins question......


Shaun King TB 1999

Ben Roethlisberger Pit 2004

Joe Flaaco Bal 2008 with a rookie head coach

Mark Sanchez NYJ 2009

and just last year

TJ Yates HOU 2011

so............ you were saying?


Excellent knowledge! Don't know how you were able to find that so fast. Three of those five guys - Roethlisberger, Flacco and Sanchez all played pretty close to a full season. Only Yates and King played part of a season. So that would make two. So ... what I was saying, or at least implying, was that it would not be an example of bias to suggest that odds of winning a playoff game would not be good for a QB with less than a half season's worth of experience. Of course he could, and you provided examples. But why attack Rudy for his making a perfectly ordinary and reasonable statement about playoff wins for inexperienced QBs not being very likely.
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