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clarkfn2284
Joined: 07 Jan 2007
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 Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:12 am Post subject: |
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Alex isnt staying, i cannot formulate a way in my mind where the niners who have talent they need to sign to extensions will keep a backup QB at a rate of roughly 9-10 million when you include his 1.5 million guarantee.
as far as his value goes....am i the only one who sees that his value outside of this forum and this team over the last 1 1/2 years is pretty much nil across the NFL landscape?
He is referred to as a game manager by everyone in NFL. The thing is that Harbaugh and Roman adjusted their gameplan to Alex Smith. Most teams throughout the NFL will not be willing to do that. These coaches have their system and they would expect Alex to learn it and then they will want him to play beyond what his talent level will allow.
I can definitely see a team signing him to battle against a young rookie, but outside of that i cant imagine a scenario where a team is going to look at what Harbaugh did and think they can do that. Most teams do not have both a defense and running game capable of allowing for such a limited offense.
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oldman9er
Joined: 24 Oct 2006
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:26 am Post subject: |
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^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother )
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rudyZ
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:44 am Post subject: |
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| Ronnie's Pinky wrote: | | rudyZ wrote: | | The other angle of this is: most teams will pay over 15 million for ONE QB, and we pay less than 10 mil for TWO starting caliber QB. If Alex can swallow his pride and accept a back-up role and help the team win by helping CK grow into his role, there is a strong possibility that we keep him at his current salary. Sure, it seems too much to pay for a back-up if you look at it individually. But 10 million is NOT too much to pay to have a great starting QB and probably the best back-up (starting quality) QB in the league. It all comes down to what Alex wants, if he thinks he can start elsewhere, or if he likes his life in the bay area. |
We're gonna be hard up against the cap as it is in the next few years trying to resign all of our players. If we can bring in some journeyman for 2-3 million to replace Alex and roll the 14-15 million we save into contract extensions, that is the best way forward. The difference between Alex Smith and [insert mediocre veteran backup here] is not worth the difference in cash. I think the potential lingering "QB controversy" if Smith stays on the roster is the biggest reason to get rid of him, though. I don't want a situation where everytime Kap's farts don't smell like roses people are calling for him to sit. Joe Staley is just going to have to suck it up and find a new boyfriend. |
This is overstated. We don't have that many players to sign, really. Let's take a look.
Randy Moss: Will we re-sign him? I doubt that. He's proving this year that he still has his legs and can be a team player. If we win a superbowl, he might simply retire. If not, he'll probably go somewhere he could get the ball more.
Teddy Ginn: Does anyone think we'll bring him back?
Leonard Davis: Enough said.
Tavares Gooden: If we re-sign him, it will be at a very low cost. It's a non-issue.
Larry Grant: He will probably look to be a starter somewhere. He's gone.
Clark Haggans: With Darius Fleming back from injury, and maybe some progress with Cam Johnson, Haggans is gone.
Brandon Jacobs: Enough said.
Darcel McBath: Cheap enough.
RJF and Sopoaga: We'll most likely sign only one of the two, and most likely cheaper than what Sopoaga made over his last contract, so we're saving money here.
Now, the two big pieces:
Delanie Walker: He might want to go elsewhere and try to be a #1. He will probably test the market. But honestly, he's not a #1 caliber TE, so maybe the market won't be that hot for him. We might get him back with a small raise.
Dashon Goldson: We're already allocating over 7 million to him via the franchise tag this year. If we re-sign him, his cap hit won't be much higher than that.
I can see a scenario where we sign both Walker and Goldson and still have more cap space than we currently have. Add in the prospect of extending Justin Smith and Michael Crabtree, and making their deals more cap-friendly (I never really believed the last year of a player's contract really meant anything.. either he declines in production and gets cut before the end, or he plays well and gets extended before the end of the contract).
We don't have to get rid of Alex because of the money. The money is manageable. If we do release or trade him, it will be for other reasons. Maybe it annoys certain fans that the back-up makes so much money, but it doesn't bother me. I loved the fact that Kendall Hunter got the carries instead Jacobs, even though Jacobs makes three times his salary. One player's salary does not dictate his contribution on the field. We all know Harbaugh won't play Alex just because he's paid more. So, what does it matter really that we keep Alex for one more year or not? If we keep him, we have a more than capable back-up in case of injury.
Do we really expect to need the cap space to make a big splash in free agency? If so, at what position?
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SoCalNiner
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 11:51 am Post subject: |
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| Ronnie's Pinky wrote: | | rudyZ wrote: | | The other angle of this is: most teams will pay over 15 million for ONE QB, and we pay less than 10 mil for TWO starting caliber QB. If Alex can swallow his pride and accept a back-up role and help the team win by helping CK grow into his role, there is a strong possibility that we keep him at his current salary. Sure, it seems too much to pay for a back-up if you look at it individually. But 10 million is NOT too much to pay to have a great starting QB and probably the best back-up (starting quality) QB in the league. It all comes down to what Alex wants, if he thinks he can start elsewhere, or if he likes his life in the bay area. |
We're gonna be hard up against the cap as it is in the next few years trying to resign all of our players. If we can bring in some journeyman for 2-3 million to replace Alex and roll the 14-15 million we save into contract extensions, that is the best way forward. The difference between Alex Smith and [insert mediocre veteran backup here] is not worth the difference in cash. I think the potential lingering "QB controversy" if Smith stays on the roster is the biggest reason to get rid of him, though. I don't want a situation where everytime Kap's farts don't smell like roses people are calling for him to sit. Joe Staley is just going to have to suck it up and find a new boyfriend. |
Yes, I think it's best that Jim cuts ties with Alex. I doubt our locker room will be divided, but I'd rather not take that risk. Letting Alex is a big sign that we're all in for Kaepernick, that's what he needs IMO.
We might not even have to sign a mediocre back up QB. I think we're fine with Kaepernick and Tolzein for the future, maybe draft a guy for the practice squad.
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clarkfn2284
Joined: 07 Jan 2007
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Location: Modesto,CA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 12:07 pm Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | ^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother ) |
oh i agree completely with the your take on those being the only plausible ways that Alex stays and i would even say if that were to happen that it would still be hard. At some point Alex has to look at himself and determine if he feels he is better then how he is viewed.
For lack of a better and at the risk of making this heavier then it needs to be analogy i refer to Alex being similar to a battered woman that just keeps going back to the assaulter.
I like Alex and think that his story of perseverance is something that i could use as my son gets older and struggles at things, but i also understand that this is a business. I also see that Alex is limited as a QB in the NFL, it's kind of what makes the story even better.
I know Alex is your guyoldman, but try not to be too frustrated by it. Alex was more than taken care of by the organization and really thats all anyone owes anyone in the end. It is kind of crappy the way it appears to have gone down, but that is the nature of the beast and we saw this stuff happen in the early 90's with Walsh as HC, The only difference is that we now live in a 24 hour news cycle so we know everything that happens in these situations.
That and those really awful lines thats us kids had shaved into the sides of our hair 
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rudyZ
Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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Location: Québec
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:00 pm Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | ^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother ) |
<
Two years ago, we said there was no way Alex would come back. Yet he did. I don't think anyone should place any large bet on him not being back next year. It wouldn't be the first time he goes against current.
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clarkfn2284
Joined: 07 Jan 2007
Posts: 2597
Location: Modesto,CA
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:10 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | oldman9er wrote: | ^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother ) |
<
Two years ago, we said there was no way Alex would come back. Yet he did. I don't think anyone should place any large bet on him not being back next year. It wouldn't be the first time he goes against current. |
It wont be his decision imo
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Miami49er
Joined: 15 Mar 2007
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Location: Miami, FL (Wade County)
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SoCalNiner
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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| Miami49er wrote: | http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/11/inside-the-49ers/cosell-kaepernick-gives-you-more-passing-dimensions-and-you-need-those-if-you-want-to-be-a-champion/
Great Greg Cosell interview about the difference between Kap and Alex. |
Love this part:
| Quote: | | COSELL: What Kaepernick gives you is more passing dimensions (than Smith). There are two elements to that: No.1. Kaepernick is willing to pull the trigger on throws that I’m not sure Alex Smith would be willing to pull the trigger on. There was a great example last week in the fourth quarter on the field goal drive. It was third and 10, and he hit Delanie Walker down the seam. That was a tough throw. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on a throw like that first and foremost. Then, the second part of that is he’s capable of making some throws that I’m not sure Alex can make. What Kaepernick gives you is more passing dimensions, and you need those dimensions if you want to be a champion. |
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Ronnie's Pinky
Joined: 17 Sep 2012
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 1:35 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | This is overstated. We don't have that many players to sign, really. Let's take a look. |
Don't we have Brown, J. Smith, Whitner and Manningham to resign (or at least replace) in 2013 and then a whole pile of guys in 2014 - all of the 2011 draftees plus Crabs, I think? Look, Davis, Iupati and Aldon are already looking at big raises on their next contracts, and if Kap is the truth, so is he. Plus Culliver...I dunno, man. I can't see the finances being too easy at that point. We'll probably shed Justin Smith's deal by then, or at least re-sign him at a lower salary (he'll be 34 at the end of this contract), but we're going to have to put up big money to keep that great draft class intact.
I'm not a cap expert, but 2014 looks like it could be a difficult summer contract-wise. If we can roll Alex's money into an extension for one or more of the young guys in this offseason, we can effectively save ourselves the money later, when things will be tighter. I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but I know that in the cap era, finances always catch up with the really talented teams eventually. Alex's money can help us stay ahead of the curve. |
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cHaInBrEaKeRiii
Joined: 21 Dec 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:04 pm Post subject: |
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| oldman9er wrote: | ^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother ) |
This is true. Alex will only be back if Colin really messes it up. I really hope that doesn't happen since he's the future of our franchise.
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cHaInBrEaKeRiii
Joined: 21 Dec 2005
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:08 pm Post subject: |
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| Miami49er wrote: | http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/11/inside-the-49ers/cosell-kaepernick-gives-you-more-passing-dimensions-and-you-need-those-if-you-want-to-be-a-champion/
Great Greg Cosell interview about the difference between Kap and Alex. |
I listened to this interview a few days back. Very good and accurate interview.
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steadypimpin
Joined: 01 Jan 2009
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Location: Rockville, Maryland
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:14 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | oldman9er wrote: | ^ doesn't matter anymore.
The only scenarios where Alex is still a 49er after this season...
Ck7 fails miserably in the coming games... or gets injured. Alex replaces him and gets us ring #6, or comes very close while playing very well.
None of that happens? then Alex will once again walk away, and would not be deterred by Jim's BS again. ( not that Jim would likely bother ) |
<
Two years ago, we said there was no way Alex would come back. Yet he did. I don't think anyone should place any large bet on him not being back next year. It wouldn't be the first time he goes against current. |
yeah he trolls this team hard. Just when you think he's about to be kicked to the curb he has a good garbage game right before season's end to keep hope in him for another year. I will be relieved when he is finally off the roster. I'm ready to move on from the Alex Smith era.
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big9erfan
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:28 pm Post subject: |
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| SoCalNiner wrote: | | Miami49er wrote: | http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/11/inside-the-49ers/cosell-kaepernick-gives-you-more-passing-dimensions-and-you-need-those-if-you-want-to-be-a-champion/
Great Greg Cosell interview about the difference between Kap and Alex. |
Love this part:
| Quote: | | COSELL: What Kaepernick gives you is more passing dimensions (than Smith). There are two elements to that: No.1. Kaepernick is willing to pull the trigger on throws that I’m not sure Alex Smith would be willing to pull the trigger on. There was a great example last week in the fourth quarter on the field goal drive. It was third and 10, and he hit Delanie Walker down the seam. That was a tough throw. You have to be willing to pull the trigger on a throw like that first and foremost. Then, the second part of that is he’s capable of making some throws that I’m not sure Alex can make. What Kaepernick gives you is more passing dimensions, and you need those dimensions if you want to be a champion. |
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Agree with all this. What two games is not nearly sufficient to show us as fans is how good his judgement is in situations like this. There are tons of qbs that have been williing to force the ball into tight windows - and in the process have thrown a lot of ints and cost their teams games. I'm not saying Kap is one of those guys. In fact, Jim going with him indicates that from tons and tons of practice and film he believes he is not. All I'm saying is that making risky throws and throwing into tight windows isn't all by itself the only thing that matters. I've read some posts here praising his willingness to make risky throws. The whole thing is a balance between risk and reward. I'm sure the coaching staff will help Colin find the right balance between the two.
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big9erfan
Joined: 26 Feb 2007
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| Posted: Thu Nov 29, 2012 2:34 pm Post subject: |
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| rudyZ wrote: | | Ronnie's Pinky wrote: | | rudyZ wrote: | | The other angle of this is: most teams will pay over 15 million for ONE QB, and we pay less than 10 mil for TWO starting caliber QB. If Alex can swallow his pride and accept a back-up role and help the team win by helping CK grow into his role, there is a strong possibility that we keep him at his current salary. Sure, it seems too much to pay for a back-up if you look at it individually. But 10 million is NOT too much to pay to have a great starting QB and probably the best back-up (starting quality) QB in the league. It all comes down to what Alex wants, if he thinks he can start elsewhere, or if he likes his life in the bay area. |
We're gonna be hard up against the cap as it is in the next few years trying to resign all of our players. If we can bring in some journeyman for 2-3 million to replace Alex and roll the 14-15 million we save into contract extensions, that is the best way forward. The difference between Alex Smith and [insert mediocre veteran backup here] is not worth the difference in cash. I think the potential lingering "QB controversy" if Smith stays on the roster is the biggest reason to get rid of him, though. I don't want a situation where everytime Kap's farts don't smell like roses people are calling for him to sit. Joe Staley is just going to have to suck it up and find a new boyfriend. |
This is overstated. We don't have that many players to sign, really. Let's take a look.
Randy Moss: Will we re-sign him? I doubt that. He's proving this year that he still has his legs and can be a team player. If we win a superbowl, he might simply retire. If not, he'll probably go somewhere he could get the ball more.
Teddy Ginn: Does anyone think we'll bring him back?
Leonard Davis: Enough said.
Tavares Gooden: If we re-sign him, it will be at a very low cost. It's a non-issue.
Larry Grant: He will probably look to be a starter somewhere. He's gone.
Clark Haggans: With Darius Fleming back from injury, and maybe some progress with Cam Johnson, Haggans is gone.
Brandon Jacobs: Enough said.
Darcel McBath: Cheap enough.
RJF and Sopoaga: We'll most likely sign only one of the two, and most likely cheaper than what Sopoaga made over his last contract, so we're saving money here.
Now, the two big pieces:
Delanie Walker:/[b] He might want to go elsewhere and try to be a #1. He will probably test the market. But honestly, he's not a #1 caliber TE, so maybe the market won't be that hot for him. We might get him back with a small raise.
[b]Dashon Goldson: We're already allocating over 7 million to him via the franchise tag this year. If we re-sign him, his cap hit won't be much higher than that.
I can see a scenario where we sign both Walker and Goldson and still have more cap space than we currently have. Add in the prospect of extending Justin Smith and Michael Crabtree, and making their deals more cap-friendly (I never really believed the last year of a player's contract really meant anything.. either he declines in production and gets cut before the end, or he plays well and gets extended before the end of the contract).
We don't have to get rid of Alex because of the money. The money is manageable. If we do release or trade him, it will be for other reasons. Maybe it annoys certain fans that the back-up makes so much money, but it doesn't bother me. I loved the fact that Kendall Hunter got the carries instead Jacobs, even though Jacobs makes three times his salary. One player's salary does not dictate his contribution on the field. We all know Harbaugh won't play Alex just because he's paid more. So, what does it matter really that we keep Alex for one more year or not? If we keep him, we have a more than capable back-up in case of injury.
Do we really expect to need the cap space to make a big splash in free agency? If so, at what position? |
Nice analysis of the numbers. We have been one of the best teams in the league at managing the cap and I expect we'll figure out whther we can afford his contract or not. But I do think it comes down to what we think of Tolzein. We are at the brink of the SB, not just for this year but at least for another year or two. Given how rare it is for a QB to go uninjured over long stretches of games I would think our management would not put us in the position of saying our SB chances ride on our ability to keep Kap healthy. We would want a capable backup on the roster. There are options besides Alex. But he's got to be considered on the short list of best options.
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