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Matt Ryan is not an MVP candidate
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bbllstr22


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
Posts: 6349
Location: Hell. The only place where the devil's advocate can reside.
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tonyto3690 wrote:
I'm not going to spend my time doing in depth analysis when all I get is troll responses. Whenever I post either it's a personal attack, a deflection, or just flat out ignoring my post because they have no rebuttal. I'm also not going to spend my time crunching numbers just for the sake of crunching numbers. All of the things stated are true and incredibly easy to look up if you don't believe me.

Anyone who has followed the NFL this year knows my post is true. It takes all of three seconds to go to ESPN and look at their stats and to see my post is true. It's hard for my personal bias to be involved when yards, PPG, YPG, bulk TDs, record, head to head, etc. are all COMPLETELY TRUE AND UNOPINIONATED.

Heck, I don't know how I could make that an opinion if I wanted to.

Brady blew out Peyton head to head.
Brady has more yards than Peyton
Peyton has more TDs than Brady
Brady has a worse defense
Brady is leading the (by far) #1 PPG offense
Brady is leading the (by far) #1 YPG offense

There is no qualitative opinion in any of that. It's all supported by numbers and facts that extremely easy to look up.

As for the attempts part, that's not surprising. The Patriots again, have by far the best offense in the NFL. You can't blame Brady for getting his team to the goal line more than Peyton. The real thing that matters is that Brady has had more opportunities to stat pad and throw TDs, but he does the smart thing and either does a QB sneak or a HB dive into the endzone the majority of the time.

It's not quantitative if you add in "BY FAR" at the end of every advantage Brady has over Manning.
And don't worry, I gathered the (raw) numbers for you so your head won't hurt from all the math.
bbllstr22 wrote:
Here are the rankings for the MVP candidates being thrown out there right now:

Peyton Manning (7/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 2nd
Yards: 7th
Completion %: 2nd
Passing Y/A: 1st
TDs: 3rd
TOs: 9th
Record: 5th
Average: 4.0

Tom Brady (6/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 4th
Yards: 6th
Completion %: 11th
Passing Y/A: 9th
TDs: 4th
TOs: 1st
Record: 5th
Average: 5.85714286

Aaron Rodgers (5/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 1st
Yards: 11th
Completion %: 5th
Passing Y/A: 13th
TDs: 2nd
TOs: 2nd
Record: 5th
Average: 5.57142857

Drew Brees (5/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 7th
Yards: 5th
Completion %: 15th
Passing Y/A: 8th
TDs: 1st
TOs: 10th
Record: 15th
Average: 8.71428571

Matt Ryan (6/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 9th
Yards: 1st
Completion %: 3rd
Passing Y/A: 7th
TDs: 7th
TOs: 20th
Record: 1st
Average: 6.85714286

Order of Average Rankings (limited to these 5 QBs)
1. Peyton Manning (4)
2. Aaron Rodgers (5.57)
3. Tom Brady (5.86)
4. Matt Ryan (6.86)
5. Drew Brees (8.71)

Disclaimer: The averaging procedure assumes that all 7 statistics are of equal importance. You can perform your own calculations, weighting whichever you think are most important. But I didn't want to seem to favor one statistic or one QB over the other.

These numbers aren't an argument; this is raw data un-manipulated by me or any website.

Fact
--------
Personal Opinion

Note: I believe all 7 forms of data are of similar importance; they may not be equal, but they are close in my humble opinion. If I would weight one of the seven over the other six, it would be the record.

Based on this information, even leaving out the averages, it's ludicrous to say Ryan isn't in contention. You'd be entirely entitled to say that Ryan isn't the leader. But he's undeniably in contention, as the length of this thread shows. You could make the argument that Brees isn't however.

Finally, the average ranking reflects my own personal ranking for MVP except with Brady and Ryan about tied at 3rd; after last week I need to see more to say who has the edge there. Manning is lengthening his lead on Rodgers.

There they are, 6 numbers that reflect the play of the quarterbacks and 1 that doesn't necessarily but is considered important for the MVP. If we weight wins to be half as important as stats, Ryan passes Brady but Manning still has a large lead on Brady.

FINALLY, this thread is about Matt Ryan and his MVP candidacy. We've already established that he is. Don't bring in your Brady obsession and Manning hatred and make it one of those worthless threads. Manning is the lead MVP favorite, Rodgers is second, Ryan and Brady are neck-and-neck. But again, comparisons need to be made to Ryan or else it has no relevance in this thread.
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Dunderhead


Joined: 13 Nov 2009
Posts: 2559
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no formula for MVP. And having all those "things" (their record isn't a stat) throws this out of wack. Yards is a very dubious at best "stat" as you only use a ranking and not the actual yards...

I'm calling crap on it. No way anyone uses that.
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bbllstr22


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dunderhead wrote:
There is no formula for MVP. And having all those "things" (their record isn't a stat) throws this out of wack. Yards is a very dubious at best "stat" as you only use a ranking and not the actual yards...

I'm calling crap on it. No way anyone uses that.

Nowhere did I say the average was a formula. It's an average.

bbllstr22 wrote:

Disclaimer: The averaging procedure assumes that all 7 statistics are of equal importance. You can perform your own calculations, weighting whichever you think are most important. But I didn't want to seem to favor one statistic or one QB over the other.

These numbers aren't an argument; this is raw data un-manipulated by me or any website.

In addition, a record is indeed a statistic. It is a percentage of wins against total games played, like a percentage of people that enjoy sushi against total sample polled. If you don't want wins considered as a factor for MVP, it's hard to argue against RGIII then. As for yards and ranks, see bolded.

If you want to be lazy and just criticize others' efforts to shed some light on where QBs rank statistically instead of making your own attempts at making a good format, then that's your problem.
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Wolverine_Joe


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J Pep 4 Step wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The way I look at it, if a QB throws FIVE interceptions and his team still wins, obviously he's not THAT valuable to his team, or at least not the MVP of the league.


The MVP award has nothing to do with a players individual value to his team.


disagree. many voters put a great emphasis on player's value. Manning won his last 2 mvps because many voters thought Manning is the Indianapolis Colts. yes, manning did have a very good season, but did he really won those 2 because he put up best overall stats? no.
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BBIB


Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Posts: 8771
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Blink wrote:
We'll just have to disagree, that's cool.

Ryan has been outplayed all year by 4 superior QBs, why you think that will all of the sudden change is beyond me, but whatever.

He has never showed the ability to be on that level in the past, is not doing it currently, but I'm supposed to believe he will now, and on top of that have 4 proven elite MVP QBs will also regress? Yeah, don't think so.


Ryan beat Peyton Manning head to head and Peyton Manning is 1-3 vs teams with winning record this year.
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Pats#1


Joined: 19 Aug 2011
Posts: 10406
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 2:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbllstr22 wrote:
tonyto3690 wrote:
I'm not going to spend my time doing in depth analysis when all I get is troll responses. Whenever I post either it's a personal attack, a deflection, or just flat out ignoring my post because they have no rebuttal. I'm also not going to spend my time crunching numbers just for the sake of crunching numbers. All of the things stated are true and incredibly easy to look up if you don't believe me.

Anyone who has followed the NFL this year knows my post is true. It takes all of three seconds to go to ESPN and look at their stats and to see my post is true. It's hard for my personal bias to be involved when yards, PPG, YPG, bulk TDs, record, head to head, etc. are all COMPLETELY TRUE AND UNOPINIONATED.

Heck, I don't know how I could make that an opinion if I wanted to.

Brady blew out Peyton head to head.
Brady has more yards than Peyton
Peyton has more TDs than Brady
Brady has a worse defense
Brady is leading the (by far) #1 PPG offense
Brady is leading the (by far) #1 YPG offense

There is no qualitative opinion in any of that. It's all supported by numbers and facts that extremely easy to look up.

As for the attempts part, that's not surprising. The Patriots again, have by far the best offense in the NFL. You can't blame Brady for getting his team to the goal line more than Peyton. The real thing that matters is that Brady has had more opportunities to stat pad and throw TDs, but he does the smart thing and either does a QB sneak or a HB dive into the endzone the majority of the time.

It's not quantitative if you add in "BY FAR" at the end of every advantage Brady has over Manning.
And don't worry, I gathered the (raw) numbers for you so your head won't hurt from all the math.
bbllstr22 wrote:
Here are the rankings for the MVP candidates being thrown out there right now:

Peyton Manning (7/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 2nd
Yards: 7th
Completion %: 2nd
Passing Y/A: 1st
TDs: 3rd
TOs: 9th
Record: 5th
Average: 4.0

Tom Brady (6/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 4th
Yards: 6th
Completion %: 11th
Passing Y/A: 9th
TDs: 4th
TOs: 1st
Record: 5th
Average: 5.85714286

Aaron Rodgers (5/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 1st
Yards: 11th
Completion %: 5th
Passing Y/A: 13th
TDs: 2nd
TOs: 2nd
Record: 5th
Average: 5.57142857

Drew Brees (5/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 7th
Yards: 5th
Completion %: 15th
Passing Y/A: 8th
TDs: 1st
TOs: 10th
Record: 15th
Average: 8.71428571

Matt Ryan (6/7 in top 10)
Passer Rating: 9th
Yards: 1st
Completion %: 3rd
Passing Y/A: 7th
TDs: 7th
TOs: 20th
Record: 1st
Average: 6.85714286

Order of Average Rankings (limited to these 5 QBs)
1. Peyton Manning (4)
2. Aaron Rodgers (5.57)
3. Tom Brady (5.86)
4. Matt Ryan (6.86)
5. Drew Brees (8.71)

Disclaimer: The averaging procedure assumes that all 7 statistics are of equal importance. You can perform your own calculations, weighting whichever you think are most important. But I didn't want to seem to favor one statistic or one QB over the other.

These numbers aren't an argument; this is raw data un-manipulated by me or any website.

Fact
--------
Personal Opinion

Note: I believe all 7 forms of data are of similar importance; they may not be equal, but they are close in my humble opinion. If I would weight one of the seven over the other six, it would be the record.

Based on this information, even leaving out the averages, it's ludicrous to say Ryan isn't in contention. You'd be entirely entitled to say that Ryan isn't the leader. But he's undeniably in contention, as the length of this thread shows. You could make the argument that Brees isn't however.

Finally, the average ranking reflects my own personal ranking for MVP except with Brady and Ryan about tied at 3rd; after last week I need to see more to say who has the edge there. Manning is lengthening his lead on Rodgers.

There they are, 6 numbers that reflect the play of the quarterbacks and 1 that doesn't necessarily but is considered important for the MVP. If we weight wins to be half as important as stats, Ryan passes Brady but Manning still has a large lead on Brady.

FINALLY, this thread is about Matt Ryan and his MVP candidacy. We've already established that he is. Don't bring in your Brady obsession and Manning hatred and make it one of those worthless threads. Manning is the lead MVP favorite, Rodgers is second, Ryan and Brady are neck-and-neck. But again, comparisons need to be made to Ryan or else it has no relevance in this thread.


1.) I'm pretty sure he wasn't the first poster to mention Brady or Manning in this thread.

2.) I'm even more sure that many will agree that Brady and Ryan are not "neck and neck" in the MVP race.

I have the three contenders being...Rodgers in front with Manning and Brady pretty much neck and neck.

Matty Ice is still in the conversation...but not close to these three.
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J Pep 4 Step


Joined: 01 Apr 2007
Posts: 32401
Location: Greenvillain, NC
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 3:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolverine_Joe wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The way I look at it, if a QB throws FIVE interceptions and his team still wins, obviously he's not THAT valuable to his team, or at least not the MVP of the league.


The MVP award has nothing to do with a players individual value to his team.


disagree. many voters put a great emphasis on player's value. Manning won his last 2 mvps because many voters thought Manning is the Indianapolis Colts. yes, manning did have a very good season, but did he really won those 2 because he put up best overall stats? no.


No. It was a combination of stats and wins. And when in doubt, add a dash of popularity.
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Tom Shean


Joined: 10 Oct 2012
Posts: 4739
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 5:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J Pep 4 Step wrote:
Wolverine_Joe wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The way I look at it, if a QB throws FIVE interceptions and his team still wins, obviously he's not THAT valuable to his team, or at least not the MVP of the league.


The MVP award has nothing to do with a players individual value to his team.


disagree. many voters put a great emphasis on player's value. Manning won his last 2 mvps because many voters thought Manning is the Indianapolis Colts. yes, manning did have a very good season, but did he really won those 2 because he put up best overall stats? no.


No. It was a combination of stats and wins. And when in doubt, add a dash of popularity.


Because Drew Brees is just sooo unpopular right?

The real reason Manning won that award was because he hadn't lost a game he played in fully, put up stats that were only marginally less than Brees' in some aspects, and engineered 7 fourth quarter comebacks.

Or was it the Illuminati deciding that all MVPs ever will go to Manning and nobody else?

btw this wasn't directed specifically at you Jpep
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Pats#1


Joined: 19 Aug 2011
Posts: 10406
PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 7:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Shean wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
Wolverine_Joe wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The way I look at it, if a QB throws FIVE interceptions and his team still wins, obviously he's not THAT valuable to his team, or at least not the MVP of the league.


The MVP award has nothing to do with a players individual value to his team.


disagree. many voters put a great emphasis on player's value. Manning won his last 2 mvps because many voters thought Manning is the Indianapolis Colts. yes, manning did have a very good season, but did he really won those 2 because he put up best overall stats? no.


No. It was a combination of stats and wins. And when in doubt, add a dash of popularity.


Because Drew Brees is just sooo unpopular right?

The real reason Manning won that award was because he hadn't lost a game he played in fully, put up stats that were only marginally less than Brees' in some aspects, and engineered 7 fourth quarter comebacks.

Or was it the Illuminati deciding that all MVPs ever will go to Manning and nobody else?

btw this wasn't directed specifically at you Jpep



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J Pep 4 Step


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Shean wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
Wolverine_Joe wrote:
J Pep 4 Step wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The way I look at it, if a QB throws FIVE interceptions and his team still wins, obviously he's not THAT valuable to his team, or at least not the MVP of the league.


The MVP award has nothing to do with a players individual value to his team.


disagree. many voters put a great emphasis on player's value. Manning won his last 2 mvps because many voters thought Manning is the Indianapolis Colts. yes, manning did have a very good season, but did he really won those 2 because he put up best overall stats? no.


No. It was a combination of stats and wins. And when in doubt, add a dash of popularity.


Because Drew Brees is just sooo unpopular right?

The real reason Manning won that award was because he hadn't lost a game he played in fully, put up stats that were only marginally less than Brees' in some aspects, and engineered 7 fourth quarter comebacks.

Or was it the Illuminati deciding that all MVPs ever will go to Manning and nobody else?

btw this wasn't directed specifically at you Jpep


Well Manning was, without a doubt, more popular than Brees. Particularly in 2008/2009. Brees hadnt won a SB up until 2009. He wasnt the household name he is now. While Manning was already an established and well embraced star.

I think the reasons you mentioned are all great arguments in Mannings favor. But I dont think they played a factor in the voting process. I think they played a factor in message board arguments. But not the voting process.

Regardless, in 2008, Brees had an 8-8 record. Clearly 8-8 QBs arent valuable. So he was out of the running.

Keep in mind I am not trying to argue Manning did or didnt deserve any MVP. I'm not trying to suggest he wasnt a legitimate MVP. I'm just trying to point out the obvious and simplistic formula that gets a QB considered for the award and helps him winj it.
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Dunderhead


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a quick question to J Pep (and of course anyone else), because you seem knowledgeable, is it in Drew Brees' favor if he basically runs the table, gets in the playoffs, and has comparable stats to the rest. He's considered one of the elites, set records last year, and yet has never won an MVP.

It'd be a heck of a thing if he carried the New Orleans team to the playoffs, that was dead and still is only on life support. To me, his story and that of his teams, I would find it unbelievable if he didn't get it. But I don't know how much story line means in the voting - thought you might know more.
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J Pep 4 Step


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dunderhead wrote:
Just a quick question to J Pep (and of course anyone else), because you seem knowledgeable, is it in Drew Brees' favor if he basically runs the table, gets in the playoffs, and has comparable stats to the rest. He's considered one of the elites, set records last year, and yet has never won an MVP.

It'd be a heck of a thing if he carried the New Orleans team to the playoffs, that was dead and still is only on life support. To me, his story and that of his teams, I would find it unbelievable if he didn't get it. But I don't know how much story line means in the voting - thought you might know more.


Well the voting process is finished before the playoffs, so they wont play a factor.

But I do think storyline helps. Its helped in the distant past. If Brees pulls the team up by its bootstraps and ends up winning a bunch of games from here on out, I think it stands to reason it would be a great story and would help his case.

But at the same time I wonder how much the whole scandal would play a negative roll as well. Not to turn this into a debate on that subject. But I have to wonder if anyone that has a vote sees Brees as kinda complicit in the whole "bounty" scandal, or are turned off by the whole bounty thing and dont want to see any Saints succeed this season. Tough to say.

That isnt to say I feel that way. I have to add that disclaimer before I am killed. Just saying I wonder if the voters might feel that way.

I really dont know. Perhaps you were right. Maybe its a tad more nuanced than I suggested. Wink
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Dunderhead


Joined: 13 Nov 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 22, 2012 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

J Pep 4 Step wrote:


Well the voting process is finished before the playoffs, so they wont play a factor.

But I do think storyline helps. Its helped in the distant past. If Brees pulls the team up by its bootstraps and ends up winning a bunch of games from here on out, I think it stands to reason it would be a great story and would help his case.

But at the same time I wonder how much the whole scandal would play a negative roll as well. Not to turn this into a debate on that subject. But I have to wonder if anyone that has a vote sees Brees as kinda complicit in the whole "bounty" scandal, or are turned off by the whole bounty thing and dont want to see any Saints succeed this season. Tough to say.

That isnt to say I feel that way. I have to add that disclaimer before I am killed. Just saying I wonder if the voters might feel that way.

I really dont know. Perhaps you were right. Maybe its a tad more nuanced than I suggested. Wink


I wasn't trying to be disingenuous, but as I wrote up my question I thought that exact same thing... It certainly would make it a lot easier to vote for those 5 other guys (Matt Ryan, Brady, Rodgers, Manning, Schaub) who are all clean.
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Wolverine_Joe


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

looking like a 3 horse race now. rodgers-manning-brady. let's see who will finish the strongest.
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