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Why Do Teams Waste Mid-Round Picks On QB's?
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kenney


Joined: 24 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This obviously won't end the discussion, but in 2011, the Texans had three QBs on their depth chart to start the season: Matt Schaub, Matt Leinart, and TJ Yates.

Schaub: originally a mid-round backup who has the best record of any starting QB in their last 13 games played.
Leinart: former top 10 pick; veteran backup QB
Yates: weak-armed 5th rounder; secured the franchise's first playoff berth and win by beating Atlanta and Cincinnati (and Cincinnati again in the playoffs)

Mid-round backup QBs, with good coaching, can provide cheap, safe, emergency stop gaps with good coaching. Leinart doesn't do what Yates did. Former 1st-round, veteran back-ups come with egos, baggage, and whatever mental or technical flaws that landed them on your bench.

If I had to pinpoint it, just about every QB coach in the league loves the mid-round rookie QB because he believes he is something like a blank slate that he has time (unlike with 1st round QBs) to coach the flaws out of and form into a perfect disciple for his system. Whether or not this belief is misguided is another discussion entirely.
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because if you don't you end up with the likes of Byron Leftwhich, Luke McCown, David Carr, Joe Webb, Chad Henne, and the like backing up your Quarterback, and when he goes down your season is all but lost.
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MNPackfan32 wrote:
You draft a mid round guy so you don't end up with Graham Harrell on your 53 man roster.


Laughing Or maybe I shouldn't laugh... Anxious
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Meco


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because you need depth. And because every so often you hit on a pick, see Joe Montana, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Matt Schaub and now it looks like Russell Wilson and Nick Foles could join the "good non round 1 QB" club. And even if you don't hit on a QB, you can pretend like you did and get picks out of it ala Kevin Kolb and AJ Feeley.
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shazor4 wrote:
I'm happy with our mid round pick Cool


Of course had Russel been a few inches taller he would have been chosen in the first.
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Colt45fool wrote:
The back up argument is the obvious argument here...and I don't understand why people say just pick up a veteran in FA. So you mean you want teams to just draft guys in the first 2 rounds and then every other QB becomes a UDFA? That doesn't make any sense...teams don't stop drafting DL after the 4th round and use the rest as UDFAs even though the success rate drops.

You don't draft QBs late to become your franchise QB...and you don't draft any other position late to become your top DL/corner/RB/whatever.


You almost have to develop your own backup by drafting one later on. Competent veteran backups just don't become available on the open market very often. Teams hang onto these guys.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pugger wrote:
Colt45fool wrote:
The back up argument is the obvious argument here...and I don't understand why people say just pick up a veteran in FA. So you mean you want teams to just draft guys in the first 2 rounds and then every other QB becomes a UDFA? That doesn't make any sense...teams don't stop drafting DL after the 4th round and use the rest as UDFAs even though the success rate drops.

You don't draft QBs late to become your franchise QB...and you don't draft any other position late to become your top DL/corner/RB/whatever.


You almost have to develop your own backup by drafting one later on. Competent veteran backups just don't become available on the open market very often. Teams hang onto these guys.


Yep. I know the Rams went off Shaun Hill hard and he ended up returning to Detroit. They obviously saw value in having a competent backup. Instead we're stuck with Kellen Clemens who is garbage.

Most of our fans are hoping that our 3rd string rookie Austin Davis would get PT since he actually has some potential and talent.

But a backup QB is a lot more important position than it's made out to be.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
I'm guessing what the OP is saying is, you expect a mid-round pick to at least challenge for a starting spot in most other positions on the field - whereas a QB, in most circumstances, is drafted as a back-up. At a position where one guy gets all the snaps, is there that much value drafting a mid-round guy as a back-up over, say a FA or a UDFA? Not saying I necessarily agree - but it might be an interesting study to assess the value of those picks with a large sample.


It's also the most important position on the field and there are numerous examples of just how important backup QBs can be if you do have an injury.


Yeah, but that's more an argument for having a quality back-up Quarterback. How many back-ups in the league were drafted by same team in the mid-rounds? Ryan Mallett is definitely one, any others?
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Jellyfish


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mid-round(3-5) QB's that are currently starters for the team that drafted them:

Nick Foles, 0 starts
Russell Wilson, 10 starts

Matt Schaub should also be mentioned, as he was traded away for two 2nd rounders.

Still, not worth it.....


It's funny, but late round/undrafted QB's seem to be better than mid-round QB's, and there is probably a reason for it. The mid-rounders are the guys that have some huge flaw, but on the other hand some huge strong point, which makes scouts fall in love with them and think their coaches can fix them(which almost never seems to happen). The late rounders and undrafted guys who end up making it, are almost always guys from small colleges, or guys who saw limited time on the field in college, so they couldn't be scouted as well as the big school guys.

Here are the rounds current starting QB's were picked

QB

1st 23,5 (Vick counted as )
2nd 2,5 (Kolb counted as )
3rd 1,5 (Foles counted as )
4th 0
5th 0,5 (Skelton counted as )
6th 1
7th 2
Und. 1
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steelcurtain29


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 11:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I actually would argue that teams should do it more often.

You can argue Kevin O'Connell, but someone like Kirk Cousins is a must-pick. I think the Redskins made a very bold move by selecting him, but at the same time it was an excellent move.

Why not select a QB who was a good college QB for more than 1-2 years on a well-known team? If you made the argument with guys like Dan LeFevour, I'd understand. But for someone like Nick Foles or Cousins; I think they're excellent picks.

Quarterback is clearly the most important position in the game. No QB is superman. They do get injured, and it changes your team's offensive gameplan completely when he's injured. Teams have to have back-up plans. You can't go "Seasons over" because you lost your QB.

In short, you can't throw away a season over one QB being injured. The Patriots didn't select Mallett for no reason. If he comes in; no one expects Tom Brady. However, no one wants someone to lead your team off a cliff. You need a back-up plan to assure that you don't take 2 steps back everyone you try to take one forward.

Here's the kicker. If you can find someone who is talented enough to be a starting QB on top of what you got, you've either found a future replacement, or trade him for much higher value than you paid for him.

Arrow Packers drafted Flynn in the 7th round. They nearly traded him for a 1st.
Arrow Falcons drafted Matt Schaub in the mid-3rd. The return was that of a top-20 pick (two seconds and swapped firsts).

While it is a gamble, it's definitely something teams with depth, or teams in dire need have to try. The return you get for a QB that pans out (whether it's for your future or trading to another team) is far more valuable than that of say, finding a great player in rounds 3 through 5.

Consider this; what if Wallace and Schaub were in the same draft class. Wallace goes 84th overall; becomes an elite WR. Schaub goes 90th overall; becomes a top-10 QB.

Wallace can be traded for a 1st and signed long-term; no one bites.

Schaub throws less than 100 passes in his first three years in the NFL and shows some promise; Texans give two seconds and drop back 2 picks in the first round of the upcoming draft.

Not all QB's will go down this road, but look at the value? Mike Wallace was a very young WR, who was breaking NFL receiving records with his speed and playmaking abilities and no one would give up a first to keep him for the rest of his career. Schaub showed promise behind a clipboard for most of his time in Atlanta and he got his original draft team their original draft value back plus the value of a first round pick.

If you are smart about drafting QB's in the middle rounds of the draft, the payout can be explosive.
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xjayex


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Teams waste mid round picks on qb's because Tom Brady.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
I'm guessing what the OP is saying is, you expect a mid-round pick to at least challenge for a starting spot in most other positions on the field - whereas a QB, in most circumstances, is drafted as a back-up. At a position where one guy gets all the snaps, is there that much value drafting a mid-round guy as a back-up over, say a FA or a UDFA? Not saying I necessarily agree - but it might be an interesting study to assess the value of those picks with a large sample.


It's also the most important position on the field and there are numerous examples of just how important backup QBs can be if you do have an injury.


Yeah, but that's more an argument for having a quality back-up Quarterback. How many back-ups in the league were drafted by same team in the mid-rounds? Ryan Mallett is definitely one, any others?


Would have to look into it. Regardless of how many actually are...backup QBs are in demand. If you have proven yourself a competent backup, you have a job for a good decade making 2+ million a year. It's why guys like David Carr, Shaun Hill, AJ Feeley, etc. have stuck around so long.

Even if that's all you get(a Shaun Hill), it's more than worth it.
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PARROTHEAD


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

xjayex wrote:
Teams waste mid round picks on qb's because Tom Brady.


And they waste them cause their backup is Rex Grossman.
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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 10:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The real question here is why is it a waste to draft a QB in later rounds but it is completely acceptable for other positions?
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J Pep 4 Step


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

4th and 5th round picks are for depth and projects. Why shouldnt teams take QBs in those rounds?
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