Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

Why Do Teams Waste Mid-Round Picks On QB's?
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL General
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
joru1000


Joined: 23 Jan 2012
Posts: 2644
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SFaithful97 wrote:
joru1000 wrote:
If you think drafting a QB in the mid rounds year after year because you may grab the next Joe Montana or Tom Brady is a good idea, then you should not be a general manager. That's like working at an investment firm and buying a couple million shares of some measly penny stock simply because you think it might be the next Google. You should be fired.
First off, nearly everybody has made it clear that you don't often need a 3-5 round pick to be a top 5 QB of all time, and I doubt anyone expected Montana or Brady to be that when they were drafted. They did however see that they had the tools and the football mind to be a successful player in the league given the right circumstances, and if as a coach and a GM you don't believe you are good enough to bring the best out of your players and/or put them in position to be successful then you shouldn't be a coach or a GM.

Second, it is nothing like your analogy but even if it were that wouldn't support your point. A third round pick is not a huge investment nor is the money said third rounder would earn (in comparison to the average NFL salary, and cap issues). A couple million or even a couple hundred thousand dollars is a really big deal to a firm, and to the clients whose money they are investing. However, if you saw a stock that after doing your homework you (as a qualified stock broker) thought was the next google, AND could be had for pennies a share?.... you would be a fool to not take a flyer and at least put some money in that stock. That is what would get you fired.

Some here are acting like the scouts and draft minds of the NFL are just picking names from a bloggers mock draft and deciding to give them a whirl. They do extensive research into every one of these guys and believe the young men they pick can be contributors in some fashion or another to a championship team.


LOL it is exactly like my analogy.

You have 7 picks each draft, trades and transactions not withstanding. You have to make the most of them. Just like an investment firm or venture capitalist firm only has so many assets to purchase securities with. I'm assuming you think you know basic microeconomics and business, so you should know that scarcity is one of the the most important fundamental concepts. Assets and capital aren't unlimited - draft picks aren't unlimited. I'm assuming you think you know what it takes to be a general manager so you should surely know the success/failure rates of non first round quarterbacks. You should surely know a salary cap exists and any money spent on a players salary is still relevant regardless of cost. So try explaining to your boss that you consistently use the team's or companies' scarce resources year after year, time after time to try and draft a mid-round graded QB (an historically low success rate), or a stock or bond that has a low rate of return or has poor liquidity. YOU WILL BE FIRED MY FRIEND.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 48578
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

joru1000 wrote:


It's exactly like my analogy.

You have 7 picks each draft, trades and transactions not withstanding. You have to make the most of them. Just like an investment firm or venture capitalist firm only has so many assets to purchase securities with. I'm assuming you think you know basic microeconomics and business, so you should know that scarcity is one of the the most important fundamental concepts. Assets and capital aren't unlimited - draft picks aren't unlimited. I'm assuming you think you know what it takes to be a general manager so you should surely know the success/failure rates of non first round quarterbacks. You should surely know a salary cap exists and any money spent on a players salary is still relevant regardless of cost. So try explaining to your boss that you consistently use the team's or companies' scarce resources year after year, time after time to try and draft a mid-round graded QB (an historically low success rate), or a stock or bond that has a low rate of return or has poor liquidity. YOU WILL BE FIRED MY FRIEND.


Lol I love the fact that none of us have taken the the stance that you draft a QB year after year and yet you keep arguing this.

That's not even what the thread is about.

As for the success rate, go ahead and give us the success rate on non 1st round players for other positions vs. non first round QBs...
_________________
The LBC wrote:
Harper41 wrote:
Don't worry. Sean Payton would pass the ball in a Tornado.

But would he do it in a Sharknado?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bednarik60


Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 33180
Location: Jortland, Oregon<3
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nabbs4u wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Tatupu_64 wrote:
Interesting topic for a guy who has had a HOF QB drafted in the 6th round starting for him.
I honestly think that's why he cut off the argument at rounds 3-5. Brady likely would have went undrafted if this plan of not drafting QB's in the middle rounds were actually used.


Was the point I was about to make as well. Fact is every Franchise is hoping to cash in that one and a million lottery ticket. When players like Montana and Brady are after thoughts in their respective drafts and undrafted players like Kurt Warner and Warren Moon all have HOF careers. It ends up being the what if that can be us type game.


THIS! to say there can't be another Brady out there is ignorant as the

And this is the image that flashes before there eyes every time they pull the trigger and draft one of these kids Arrow



The ego of the head coach has to be he can develop the next Brady. His conditioning coaches and offensive coordinators have to be like "we will build him up". That what coaches are for. Instilling the attitude that any one can make it and produce in this league if they buy into there system. And this applies for every position. A coach is a teacher showing the player knowledge/skills inside him self he didnt know existed in him as a player. The coaches believe more in the kids they draft and there potential in this league more then any one else ever will. Its there job to.
_________________

Sig/Art by The Great Silo
#championCHIP #CHIPlife #Sparkles
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 48288
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its not ignorant,you have to realize the odds. How many great starting QBs has the league seen that were drafted after round 3 (in recent memory)?

I think its borderline arrogant for a coach to expect a team to draft a QB after round 3 and turn that player into a starter. Its arrogant simply because of the odds of failure.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
joru1000


Joined: 23 Jan 2012
Posts: 2644
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Its not ignorant,you have to realize the odds. How many great starting QBs has the league seen that were drafted after round 3 (in recent memory)?

I think its borderline arrogant for a coach to expect a team to draft a QB after round 3 and turn that player into a starter. Its arrogant simply because of the odds of failure.


Exactamundo.

And my post was a reaction to several people alluding to the fact that Joe Montana and Tom Brady were mid/late rounders as if that is some sort of justification for consistently drafting mid round QBs and signing career journeymen instead of biting the bullet taking a first rounder like many teams do.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
BBIB


Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Posts: 8771
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's See:

29 Quarterbacks have won a Super Bowl

15 guys drafted in 1st round
14 guys drafted after 1st round
11 guys drafted after 2nd round
9 guys drafted after 3rd round


Looks like you can find talent anywhere. Sure in recent memory you have Big Ben, Eli and Aaron Rodgers as 1st round guys who tilt the numbers even more in favor of the 1st round guys but again talent is talent

And again QB gets too much credit for Super Bowls anyway.

Big Ben and Eli are both clutch but neither one sniff the Super Bowl without elite efforts from their defense. Big Ben has constantly had an elite defense and Eli's defense stifled the Patriots in the Super Bowl TWICE
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 48578
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

joru1000 wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
Its not ignorant,you have to realize the odds. How many great starting QBs has the league seen that were drafted after round 3 (in recent memory)?

I think its borderline arrogant for a coach to expect a team to draft a QB after round 3 and turn that player into a starter. Its arrogant simply because of the odds of failure.


Exactamundo.

And my post was a reaction to several people alluding to the fact that Joe Montana and Tom Brady were mid/late rounders as if that is some sort of justification for consistently drafting mid round QBs and signing career journeymen instead of biting the bullet taking a first rounder like many teams do.


Huh? Nobody here is advocating the bold.

You've created some elaborate strawman that you seem to believe in.
_________________
The LBC wrote:
Harper41 wrote:
Don't worry. Sean Payton would pass the ball in a Tornado.

But would he do it in a Sharknado?


Last edited by jrry32 on Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:15 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Bednarik60


Joined: 23 Mar 2007
Posts: 33180
Location: Jortland, Oregon<3
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 9:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Its not ignorant,you have to realize the odds. How many great starting QBs has the league seen that were drafted after round 3 (in recent memory)?

I think its borderline arrogant for a coach to expect a team to draft a QB after round 3 and turn that player into a starter. Its arrogant simply because of the odds of failure.


is it arrogant? yeah ...comes with the nature of the job.

Part of there job is instilling a "next man up" culture in every position cause bad luck doesn't have a agenda to any single position or way to be predicted.

If there quarterback is lost for the season fans see it one way and coaches see it another.

Fan: "WERE DOOMED!!!!!ALLizLOST!"

Head Coach: "Damn it... Its going to be hard but we got to save our jobs and finish it out to the end.. Johnnys bright and has been really throwing well in practice and we know Willy can run with the best of them... and you know Brett is on pace to catch 100 balls.. yeah we might not be that bad off after all.. Defense limit big plays.. a lot of check downs. yeaaa we might be ok.."

You got to win to save your job. they dont care about the draft or anything like that. Just how can save there job to fight another day with "there guy".
_________________

Sig/Art by The Great Silo
#championCHIP #CHIPlife #Sparkles
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
darnell


Joined: 07 Nov 2007
Posts: 1954
PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maybe in some cases, not all though, GMs think they have truely pulled a "fast one" by exploiting a market deficiency (such as the reaction to Wilson's height).
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
BBIB


Joined: 20 Jan 2008
Posts: 8771
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

darnell wrote:
Maybe in some cases, not all though, GMs think they have truely pulled a "fast one" by exploiting a market deficiency (such as the reaction to Wilson's height).


Its the same for drafting of any position in that regard as well

Teams may have passed on a player because of character, size, small school, etc

It's an inexact science and sometimes we give the experts too much credit especially at the QB position where they miss as often as they hit
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
vikingsrule


Moderator
Joined: 15 Nov 2005
Posts: 48288
Location: Land of 10,000 Lakes!
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BBIB wrote:
darnell wrote:
Maybe in some cases, not all though, GMs think they have truely pulled a "fast one" by exploiting a market deficiency (such as the reaction to Wilson's height).


Its the same for drafting of any position in that regard as well

Teams may have passed on a player because of character, size, small school, etc

It's an inexact science and sometimes we give the experts too much credit especially at the QB position where they miss as often as they hit


They miss more often than they hit. Thats why if teams need a starter, they try and get it taken care of within the first two rounds. You need depth, dont take a QB in the mid rounds. Unless youre a genius at developing QBs and you think you can flip that player for picks.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
dante9876


Joined: 23 Dec 2008
Posts: 21986
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 3:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wonder how many years will have to past before people stop using the "AL Davis approach to drafting" as examples.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
goldfishwars


Joined: 27 Mar 2011
Posts: 8631
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm guessing what the OP is saying is, you expect a mid-round pick to at least challenge for a starting spot in most other positions on the field - whereas a QB, in most circumstances, is drafted as a back-up. At a position where one guy gets all the snaps, is there that much value drafting a mid-round guy as a back-up over, say a FA or a UDFA? Not saying I necessarily agree - but it might be an interesting study to assess the value of those picks with a large sample.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
Posts: 23206
Location: Parkville, MD
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

joru1000 wrote:
SFaithful97 wrote:
joru1000 wrote:
If you think drafting a QB in the mid rounds year after year because you may grab the next Joe Montana or Tom Brady is a good idea, then you should not be a general manager. That's like working at an investment firm and buying a couple million shares of some measly penny stock simply because you think it might be the next Google. You should be fired.
First off, nearly everybody has made it clear that you don't often need a 3-5 round pick to be a top 5 QB of all time, and I doubt anyone expected Montana or Brady to be that when they were drafted. They did however see that they had the tools and the football mind to be a successful player in the league given the right circumstances, and if as a coach and a GM you don't believe you are good enough to bring the best out of your players and/or put them in position to be successful then you shouldn't be a coach or a GM.

Second, it is nothing like your analogy but even if it were that wouldn't support your point. A third round pick is not a huge investment nor is the money said third rounder would earn (in comparison to the average NFL salary, and cap issues). A couple million or even a couple hundred thousand dollars is a really big deal to a firm, and to the clients whose money they are investing. However, if you saw a stock that after doing your homework you (as a qualified stock broker) thought was the next google, AND could be had for pennies a share?.... you would be a fool to not take a flyer and at least put some money in that stock. That is what would get you fired.

Some here are acting like the scouts and draft minds of the NFL are just picking names from a bloggers mock draft and deciding to give them a whirl. They do extensive research into every one of these guys and believe the young men they pick can be contributors in some fashion or another to a championship team.


LOL it is exactly like my analogy.

You have 7 picks each draft, trades and transactions not withstanding. You have to make the most of them. Just like an investment firm or venture capitalist firm only has so many assets to purchase securities with. I'm assuming you think you know basic microeconomics and business, so you should know that scarcity is one of the the most important fundamental concepts. Assets and capital aren't unlimited - draft picks aren't unlimited. I'm assuming you think you know what it takes to be a general manager so you should surely know the success/failure rates of non first round quarterbacks. You should surely know a salary cap exists and any money spent on a players salary is still relevant regardless of cost. So try explaining to your boss that you consistently use the team's or companies' scarce resources year after year, time after time to try and draft a mid-round graded QB (an historically low success rate), or a stock or bond that has a low rate of return or has poor liquidity. YOU WILL BE FIRED MY FRIEND.


The bolded is what I disagree with.

Can you show that the success rate of finding an above average middle-round (3-5) QB is quite a bit lower than finding an above average player at a different position? Because I certainly can't.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 48578
PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 8:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
I'm guessing what the OP is saying is, you expect a mid-round pick to at least challenge for a starting spot in most other positions on the field - whereas a QB, in most circumstances, is drafted as a back-up. At a position where one guy gets all the snaps, is there that much value drafting a mid-round guy as a back-up over, say a FA or a UDFA? Not saying I necessarily agree - but it might be an interesting study to assess the value of those picks with a large sample.


It's also the most important position on the field and there are numerous examples of just how important backup QBs can be if you do have an injury.

Plus, unlike other positions, if you manage to find even an average or slightly below average starter at QB, you can typically flip them for more compensation than you gave up.

And the expectation that a mid round pick will start or challenge for a starting job would be a mistake imo. If they do, great. But I think you'd find the success rate of that happening isn't overly high. Probably much much much much smaller than the rate of mid round picks who are out of the NFL or off the team by the end of Year 3.
_________________
The LBC wrote:
Harper41 wrote:
Don't worry. Sean Payton would pass the ball in a Tornado.

But would he do it in a Sharknado?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL General All times are GMT - 5 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next
Page 6 of 8

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group