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ServantofYHWH


Joined: 25 Jan 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Didn't the saints start resting there starters for the last 3 games during their super bowl season?
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Pastor Dillon


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we will finish the season 13-3. I can see us losing to the pats and colts

This should get us a bye and possibly the #1 seed

I can remember when the falcons were 14-2 and finished 2nd
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texandominance


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 23, 2012 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pastor Dillon wrote:
I can remember when the falcons were 14-2 and finished 2nd


So does everyone in Minnesota. Damn Gary Anderson!
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Pastor Dillon


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

im thinking we might have to beat the colts once to win the division, they have had a surprisingly good year
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lumberjackchris


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pitt and possibly Balt losing today along with the Broncos barely holding on against the Chiefs are some promising signs
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Longhorns90


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 25, 2012 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baltimore holds on, so nothing that really helps us this weekend as far as home field advantage goes (as Pitt was already out after losing last week), and we still need Baltimore to fall twice, Denver to fall once and Indianapolis to fall once to get the Week 14 HFA, which is probably asking a bit much.

Week 15 HFA requirements haven't changed, assuming we can beat the Pats two weeks from now.
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lumberjackchris


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 12:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) TEN loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss + SD loss or tie
2) TEN loss or tie + MIA loss or tie + NYJ loss or tie + CIN loss or tie + PIT loss

There's the 2 ways we clinch a playoff spot this week.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Found a better home for this than the march to 11k thread.

While I understand the sentiment, it is important that we keep a 2 game lead on the Pats heading into that game or it becomes a winner take all battle for home field advantage as they would gain the head to head tiebreaker in addition to evening the records. They don't exactly have a cakewalk this week heading to Miami who seemed to get back on track this week and usually play the Pats tough. As far as I'm concerned, the biggest threat to us getting to the Super Bowl is having to play in Foxboro in January when they will have Gronk back and we need to keep the pedal down thru week 15 when beating the Colts hopefully will lock everything up and give us some time to get everyone healthy for the 2nd season. Frankly, I'm kind of glad that the Colts are at least keeping things somewhat interesting in the division, or it would be really easy to get complacent and take a bad loss like to a Tenn team who's season pretty much ended last week.

Will save detailed playoff seeding analysis for later, but know that if there is a 3 way tie with NE, Balt, and us it gets really complicated since presumably head to head would get cancelled out since we would have lost to NE and they lost to Balt. Conf record would be tied as well and we won't have 4 common games so it goes to strength of victory which will likely tip to NE since they have a +163 point diff, vs 116 for us and 64 for them (they compute it per game, but I doubt we'll catch NE there). We CANNOT afford to lose a conference game (aka Titans, Colts) as it's essentially a double hit. The stupid Chargers really did us a disservice by letting Balt convert that 4th and 22 which would have given us much more breathing room (bye bye Norv). The Pats and Ravens still have some tough games out of conference coming up, but if they lose to the 49ers (Pats) or Giants (Ravens) it doesn't hurt them if we drop two conference games. I'm not forgetting about the Broncos who get a chance to get a tiebreaker of their own vs. Balt in Week 15 (Denver already lost to us and NE, so losing to Balt will push them to 4th with a 4 way tiebreaker). Denver has a cupcake schedule remaining aside from that game and perhaps Tampa this week.

Seriously though, understand that there remains a very fine line between us currently having to win two games at Reliant in the playoffs to get to New Orleans and us drawing the dreaded 4th seed which means a 3rd game to play (most likely against a healthy Steelers team?) and having to go to Balt, Denver, or NE in the 2nd round which is no better than last year and all poor weather locations we want no part of with a cutback based offense and a weak legged kicker.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Found a better home for this than the march to 11k thread.

While I understand the sentiment, it is important that we keep a 2 game lead on the Pats heading into that game or it becomes a winner take all battle for home field advantage as they would gain the head to head tiebreaker in addition to evening the records. They don't exactly have a cakewalk this week heading to Miami who seemed to get back on track this week and usually play the Pats tough. As far as I'm concerned, the biggest threat to us getting to the Super Bowl is having to play in Foxboro in January when they will have Gronk back and we need to keep the pedal down thru week 15 when beating the Colts hopefully will lock everything up and give us some time to get everyone healthy for the 2nd season. Frankly, I'm kind of glad that the Colts are at least keeping things somewhat interesting in the division, or it would be really easy to get complacent and take a bad loss like to a Tenn team who's season pretty much ended last week.

Will save detailed playoff seeding analysis for later, but know that if there is a 3 way tie with NE, Balt, and us it gets really complicated since presumably head to head would get cancelled out since we would have lost to NE and they lost to Balt. Conf record would be tied as well and we won't have 4 common games so it goes to strength of victory which will likely tip to NE since they have a +163 point diff, vs 116 for us and 64 for them (they compute it per game, but I doubt we'll catch NE there). We CANNOT afford to lose a conference game (aka Titans, Colts) as it's essentially a double hit. The stupid Chargers really did us a disservice by letting Balt convert that 4th and 22 which would have given us much more breathing room (bye bye Norv). The Pats and Ravens still have some tough games out of conference coming up, but if they lose to the 49ers (Pats) or Giants (Ravens) it doesn't hurt them if we drop two conference games. I'm not forgetting about the Broncos who get a chance to get a tiebreaker of their own vs. Balt in Week 15 (Denver already lost to us and NE, so losing to Balt will push them to 4th with a 4 way tiebreaker). Denver has a cupcake schedule remaining aside from that game and perhaps Tampa this week.

Seriously though, understand that there remains a very fine line between us currently having to win two games at Reliant in the playoffs to get to New Orleans and us drawing the dreaded 4th seed which means a 3rd game to play (most likely against a healthy Steelers team?) and having to go to Balt, Denver, or NE in the 2nd round which is no better than last year and all poor weather locations we want no part of with a cutback based offense and a weak legged kicker.


Is that what strength of victory means?

I thought it mean best winning percentage of the teams beat. So it isn't about point differential, but record of the teams we beat.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:
Found a better home for this than the march to 11k thread.

While I understand the sentiment, it is important that we keep a 2 game lead on the Pats heading into that game or it becomes a winner take all battle for home field advantage as they would gain the head to head tiebreaker in addition to evening the records. They don't exactly have a cakewalk this week heading to Miami who seemed to get back on track this week and usually play the Pats tough. As far as I'm concerned, the biggest threat to us getting to the Super Bowl is having to play in Foxboro in January when they will have Gronk back and we need to keep the pedal down thru week 15 when beating the Colts hopefully will lock everything up and give us some time to get everyone healthy for the 2nd season. Frankly, I'm kind of glad that the Colts are at least keeping things somewhat interesting in the division, or it would be really easy to get complacent and take a bad loss like to a Tenn team who's season pretty much ended last week.

Will save detailed playoff seeding analysis for later, but know that if there is a 3 way tie with NE, Balt, and us it gets really complicated since presumably head to head would get cancelled out since we would have lost to NE and they lost to Balt. Conf record would be tied as well and we won't have 4 common games so it goes to strength of victory which will likely tip to NE since they have a +163 point diff, vs 116 for us and 64 for them (they compute it per game, but I doubt we'll catch NE there). We CANNOT afford to lose a conference game (aka Titans, Colts) as it's essentially a double hit. The stupid Chargers really did us a disservice by letting Balt convert that 4th and 22 which would have given us much more breathing room (bye bye Norv). The Pats and Ravens still have some tough games out of conference coming up, but if they lose to the 49ers (Pats) or Giants (Ravens) it doesn't hurt them if we drop two conference games. I'm not forgetting about the Broncos who get a chance to get a tiebreaker of their own vs. Balt in Week 15 (Denver already lost to us and NE, so losing to Balt will push them to 4th with a 4 way tiebreaker). Denver has a cupcake schedule remaining aside from that game and perhaps Tampa this week.

Seriously though, understand that there remains a very fine line between us currently having to win two games at Reliant in the playoffs to get to New Orleans and us drawing the dreaded 4th seed which means a 3rd game to play (most likely against a healthy Steelers team?) and having to go to Balt, Denver, or NE in the 2nd round which is no better than last year and all poor weather locations we want no part of with a cutback based offense and a weak legged kicker.


Is that what strength of victory means?

I thought it mean best winning percentage of the teams beat. So it isn't about point differential, but record of the teams we beat.


You could be right there as I recall our victories against the Colts last year not helping us much last year when I was computing playoff scenarios. If that's the case I still don't think we'll separate much from the Pats since our victories over Balt and Denver will be pretty much cancelled out by Tenn and Jax crappy records while the North and the East provide a better lower class. It would be ironic if victories over the Colts actually helps us since we catch them twice still while the Pats get 5-6 Miami twice. Again, not quite worth the time to calculate tie breakers that deep this far out, but would be an interesting factor to know with some precision. Beating NE makes this all academic and I sure think it would be cool to say we beat the division champs from each division (plus Chicago) heading into the playoffs (and certainly still be underrated by the national press).
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Confirmed. Somebody get out their abacus.

Quote:
A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.

Examples:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.


Ironically, beating the Texans would skyrocket the Pats strength of victory, again highlighting the double whammy of that game. Strangely we need to root a bit for the Vikings to win a few and for the Colts to keep winning, aside from weeks 15 & 17. Strikes me that this is a really bogus tiebreaker as it sure seems to me that beating 3 division champs ought to count for more than them beating a few more 6-10 teams while we only got to beat 5-11 teams and 2-14.
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Longhorns90


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Current strength of victory for the AFC division leaders, as requested:

Denver: (31-57), (.352)
New England: (39-48-1), (.449)
Baltimore: (39-60), (.394)
Houston: (50-60), (.455)
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Darn. I want a superb owl. I only have this POS barn owl. Hedwig would be a major upgrade.
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Grasspike


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Longhorns90 wrote:
Current strength of victory for the AFC division leaders, as requested:

Denver: (31-57), (.352)
New England: (39-48-1), (.449)
Baltimore: (39-60), (.394)
Houston: (50-60), (.455)


So a win against New England would pretty much guarantee the 1-seed...
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Longhorns90


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, a win against New England would pretty much guarantee the one seed because we'd have tiebreakers against the only teams that have a chance at catching us.
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SUPERB OWL
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mse326


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 10:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Confirmed. Somebody get out their abacus.

Quote:
A part of the NFL's tiebreaking proceedure, strength of victory is figured by calculating the combined winning percentage of the opponents a team has beaten.

Examples:
If two teams end with identical records, combine the records of the opponents in each of the team's wins and calculate the total winning percentage. The team whose opponents have the higher winning percentage wins the tiebreaker.


Ironically, beating the Texans would skyrocket the Pats strength of victory, again highlighting the double whammy of that game. Strangely we need to root a bit for the Vikings to win a few and for the Colts to keep winning, aside from weeks 15 & 17. Strikes me that this is a really bogus tiebreaker as it sure seems to me that beating 3 division champs ought to count for more than them beating a few more 6-10 teams while we only got to beat 5-11 teams and 2-14.


Not really. It is a non issue in the scenerio. It only comes about if Baltimore, New England, and us have the same record and are 1-1 against each other. Therefore we'd offset New Englands win over us with ours over Baltimore and all the vice versas.

Broncos are equal for us and New England and Baltimore has them late so that will be a big game.

The Bears game will be major for us. And if Minnesota and Detroit can pick up some wins that will also help.

Having the NFC North is big to offset the Jags and Titans.
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