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mse326


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:12 am    Post subject: Lineup Optimization Reply with quote

So after reading the Melky Cabrera thread and the manager tangent I figured I'd pose this question.

Do you think there will be a time soon that managers start using sabermetrics in decision making? Specifically lineup optimization.

Here is a decent article on all things managing that goes a bit into optimization.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2011/4/14/2110082/why-dont-sabermetric-gms-have-sabermetric-managers-and-shouldnt-they

It suprises me that no manager has really even tried it yet.
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fishfan13


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 12:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because sabremetricians are socially awkward people who have no business leading a bunch of jock athletes.

/sarcasm... kinda
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ServantofYHWH


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't understand; why bat the pitcher 8th? Also confused on the 5th best batter 3rd.

I wonder if this works on video games.. Hmm
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fishfan13


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ServantofYHWH wrote:
I don't understand; why bat the pitcher 8th? Also confused on the 5th best batter 3rd.

I wonder if this works on video games.. Hmm


I do believe its beacause the 3 hole hitter is most likely to come up with 2 outs.

Not sure about the pitcher rule.
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ServantofYHWH


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fishfan13 wrote:
ServantofYHWH wrote:
I don't understand; why bat the pitcher 8th? Also confused on the 5th best batter 3rd.

I wonder if this works on video games.. Hmm


I do believe its beacause the 3 hole hitter is most likely to come up with 2 outs.

Not sure about the pitcher rule.


To make the top of your order more potent?
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green24


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fishfan13 wrote:
Because sabremetricians are socially awkward people who have no business leading a bunch of jock athletes.

/sarcasm... kinda


Meaning AA?
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Dr. Philly


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dusty Baker needs to read this and put Teir catcher higher in the order
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 2:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yeah.......I don't think managers will try this out for quite some time. Maybe not even during my lifetime.
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Sandybaby716


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 5:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've always wondered about positional optimization and why it isn't more commonplace either.

Last year the blue jays signed Kelly Johnson. Kelly Johnson is a similar defensive second baseman to Brett Lawrie. Brett Lawrie is a similar defensive 3rd baseman to Jose Bautista.

Kelly Johnson made more than 6m dollars to play similar defense to Lawrie, bat .225, have an OBP barely over .300 and a SLG barely over .360.

If that $6m was spent on a RF who plays similar defense to Jose Bautista in RF, you're looking at players like David DeJesus (260/350/400), Josh Willingham (260/365/525), Jason Kubel (250/325/500). Those were the outfielders who were signed to similar contracts to Johnson. They average 257/347/475. Their OPS was .165 higher than Johnson. All while keeping Bautista at his natural position and Lawrie at a position he can handle well. Instead of putting their best hitters at positions of offensive rarity such as 2b and 3b, they move them each to a position where they cannot make as much of an impact.
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DalCowboyzRule


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 6:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So the Rangers optimal lineup (of last year) would look something like

Kinsler 2B
Hamilton LF
Cruz RF
Beltre 3B
Napoli C
Moreland 1B
Andrus SS
Young DH
Gentry CF

Wonder if it would've made a difference.
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the lone star


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 7:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DalCowboyzRule wrote:
So the Rangers optimal lineup (of last year) would look something like

Kinsler 2B
Hamilton LF
Cruz RF
Beltre 3B
Napoli C
Moreland 1B
Andrus SS
Young DH
Gentry CF

Wonder if it would've made a difference.


I doubt it. Crying or Very sad
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titans_5


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
I've always wondered about positional optimization and why it isn't more commonplace either.

Last year the blue jays signed Kelly Johnson. Kelly Johnson is a similar defensive second baseman to Brett Lawrie. Brett Lawrie is a similar defensive 3rd baseman to Jose Bautista.

Kelly Johnson made more than 6m dollars to play similar defense to Lawrie, bat .225, have an OBP barely over .300 and a SLG barely over .360.

If that $6m was spent on a RF who plays similar defense to Jose Bautista in RF, you're looking at players like David DeJesus (260/350/400), Josh Willingham (260/365/525), Jason Kubel (250/325/500). Those were the outfielders who were signed to similar contracts to Johnson. They average 257/347/475. Their OPS was .165 higher than Johnson. All while keeping Bautista at his natural position and Lawrie at a position he can handle well. Instead of putting their best hitters at positions of offensive rarity such as 2b and 3b, they move them each to a position where they cannot make as much of an impact.


That article is really long didnt read the whole thing but its really interesting.

I agree with the idea and generally what you re trying to say with respect to optimizing the lineup for the jays.


only issues i see is lawrie cannot play second base. as soon as the jays got him we said no more second for you. his defense isnt good enough for the middle of the diamond everyday, him playing 2nd in milwaukee has no consequence as to how the jays ever intended to use him.

Also bautista has almost exclusively played right field for us since we got him. He played a handful of games at third base but my understanding is he has always preferred to play in the outfield, with his arm I dont see why the jays would move him.

we got kelly johnson in a trade for aaron hill, and signed him via arbitration so we were in a bind that way anyways, we had a year of arbitration and a hole at second base, thats why we resigned him... unfortunately he had a career worst year in 2012. In the past hes been a pretty productive player.
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ServantofYHWH


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DalCowboyzRule wrote:
So the Rangers optimal lineup (of last year) would look something like

Kinsler 2B
Hamilton LF
Cruz RF
Beltre 3B
Napoli C
Moreland 1B
Andrus SS
Young DH
Gentry CF

Wonder if it would've made a difference.


I think it would be:

Kinsler
Cruz
Beltre
Hamilton
Napoli
Andrus
Moreland
Gentry
Young

idk whos OBP is higher between Hamilton and Cruz. You could probably switch them.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ServantofYHWH wrote:
I don't understand; why bat the pitcher 8th? Also confused on the 5th best batter 3rd.

I wonder if this works on video games.. Hmm


It has to do with how often they come up with people on.

The 4th hitter comes up most often with people on base so you want him as Your best slugger of the top 3 OBP guys. Next most often is the 5th hitter. But since you want 2 of your 3 best OBP guys up top with the other 4th that is the place for the 4th place hitter. The 3rd place hitter is your 3rd place hitter. Preferably with a good slugging percentage. That way he can hit HRs (since he comes up often with no one on) or get himself in scoring position for the 4th and 5th guys.

The reason for a pitcher batting 8th is that they are normally well below everyone else in OBP (if you have a good hitting pitcher just treat him like your 9th best guy) and you want to have a better link to the top of the lineup since they are good OBP guys you want guys on base when they come up to get home.

The more detailed optimization is
1. Top 3 OBP guy
2. Best OBP guy
3. 5th best hitter (generally by OBP but if 5 and 6 are relatively close power wins)
4. Top 3 OBP guy with most power
5. 4th best OBP (preferably with some power)
Then basically decending order of how good they are with the exception for pitchers above.

There is also a thought that in the 6th spot you may want to sacrifice a small amount of OBP for more power. That way the bottom of the lineup which are normally singles hitters have more of a chance to be able to get him in.
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ramssuperbowl99


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most teams get it pretty close to correct. The only major difference that I see that those teams should take their number 3 hitter and either move him to 2nd or 4th, depending on whether he leans power or OBP.
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