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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 6:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:


I think the staff perusing Peyton was enough to show me that they were fine with Alex walking, and were ready to move on to a new QB.


All it shows is that we weren't ready to go into this season with Kap as our starter. Remember Alex wasn't under contract and he was looking elsewhere. Any and every management team would have been looking at option in case we couldn't re-sign him. All looking at Peyton showed was that our managment team wasn't totally and completely incompetent.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 16, 2012 7:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mrscottso wrote:
They were willing to let him walk for Manning. There are plenty of teams that would do that. He is the exception to the rule.


It's not only the Manning part too, it's that we were willing to let him walk while Manning was still in the stages of figuring out which team to go to. When Manning signed with Denver, it didn't seem like we were in a panic to sign Alex. We initially kept the same deal, it was sightly improved, but it seemed like they were fine with Alex walking. What I get from that is they don't think too highly of Alex. It's hard to deny that Alex was basically stepped all over this off-season. Again, it's all speculation because none of us know what was going on behind closed doors.

Anyway, that's my piece on it, and I rather not pollute the Kaepernick thread with more Alex stuff. I'd be happy to continue the conversation in the Alex thread.
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wilmtalk


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 9:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:


This is one area where I disagree with you. Alex is exceptional at not throwing ints. Everyone seems to agree that it's hard to throw for 4000 yards, or things like that, but people seem to think anyone can avoid ints. Yeah? Well why did Alex have one of the lowest int rates ever last year? And why is he low again this year - even after a horrible 3-int game? The fact is that there are NOT a lot of guys who are as careful with the ball as Alex. I understand you don't value that the same way the coaching staff does, but I don't believe it's accurate to say lots of guys are as good at that as he is.

Yes Alex is exceptional at not throwing interceptions- I agree. And under the right conditions that might be a trait that takes precedence over other factors. I just feel that the situation and conditions of the team have changed so that now there are better options available. Last year without a doubt he was the best available option. Early this year he was in my opinion still the best option. Now I feel that he might no longer be the best available option for the team. What has changed- I will get to that. First I would like to respond to some other parts of your argument.

A QB's stats are not always a true reflection of a players actual value to a teams record. It depends on how those stats were acquired. Interceptions in Alex's case being one. Alex low interception rate reflects his caution not his accuracy. There is a time when caution is merited. Last year it was ideal because the defense dominated and kept the other teams out of the end zone. This along with special teams and turnovers provided constantly good field position for the offense. It was not necessary for the offense to score that much. Most scoring was done through field goals. The offense lack of efficiency on third down and in the red zone did not hurt them that much. That was the trade off for Alex's caution and lack of interceptions. he did not have to make higher risk throws that are a necessity under different conditions. Alex was ideal. But it required other factors.

The problem is that those factors have changed this year. Aikers is not as consistant. Field position is not as ideal as last year. Turn overs are down from last year as well. And most important the defense has not been able to contain certain teams this year. We need to score more often. Being careful has become a liability against certain teams.

There have been game managing QB's that have taken their teams to the Superbowl and won, but it was a one time thing. That's because it requires a lot of different factors to all come out favorably. It requires luck. The idea is to build a team that requires the least amount of extraneous circumstances to get you there. So that you might have your own fate in hand.

What some of the Alex's supporters do not seem to grasp is that a change in circumstances requires a change in how we deal with it. Alex despite his numbers and stats is limited. He doesn't use the entire field and this does not take advantage of the offense weapons that are now available to a niner QB.

Until this year I didn't pay as much attention to who should be playing Qb because their were no many other variables that interfered with a clear evaluation of the position. This year it is obvious that Alex can be improved upon. It's just a question of when. I am becoming more convinced that Kamp might be a better option even now. Some of you should take a real objective look at Alex and you will see that the team makes him not the other way around. This is his 8th year. He is not going to get better. He is not a bad QB, It's just that the team can do better. Remember no other QB has played for this team under Harbough either.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wilmtalk wrote:
It's just that the team can do better. Remember no other QB has played for this team under Harbough either.


Well if we can do better than the 3rd best QB in passer rating and 3rd best QB of an offense ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency? Hells yes... give me THAT quarterback!
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wilmtalk wrote:
big9erfan wrote:


This is one area where I disagree with you. Alex is exceptional at not throwing ints. Everyone seems to agree that it's hard to throw for 4000 yards, or things like that, but people seem to think anyone can avoid ints. Yeah? Well why did Alex have one of the lowest int rates ever last year? And why is he low again this year - even after a horrible 3-int game? The fact is that there are NOT a lot of guys who are as careful with the ball as Alex. I understand you don't value that the same way the coaching staff does, but I don't believe it's accurate to say lots of guys are as good at that as he is.

Yes Alex is exceptional at not throwing interceptions- I agree. And under the right conditions that might be a trait that takes precedence over other factors. I just feel that the situation and conditions of the team have changed so that now there are better options available. Last year without a doubt he was the best available option. Early this year he was in my opinion still the best option. Now I feel that he might no longer be the best available option for the team. What has changed- I will get to that. First I would like to respond to some other parts of your argument.

A QB's stats are not always a true reflection of a players actual value to a teams record. It depends on how those stats were acquired. Interceptions in Alex's case being one. Alex low interception rate reflects his caution not his accuracy. There is a time when caution is merited. Last year it was ideal because the defense dominated and kept the other teams out of the end zone. This along with special teams and turnovers provided constantly good field position for the offense. It was not necessary for the offense to score that much. Most scoring was done through field goals. The offense lack of efficiency on third down and in the red zone did not hurt them that much. That was the trade off for Alex's caution and lack of interceptions. he did not have to make higher risk throws that are a necessity under different conditions. Alex was ideal. But it required other factors.

The problem is that those factors have changed this year. Aikers is not as consistant. Field position is not as ideal as last year. Turn overs are down from last year as well. And most important the defense has not been able to contain certain teams this year. We need to score more often. Being careful has become a liability against certain teams.

There have been game managing QB's that have taken their teams to the Superbowl and won, but it was a one time thing. That's because it requires a lot of different factors to all come out favorably. It requires luck. The idea is to build a team that requires the least amount of extraneous circumstances to get you there. So that you might have your own fate in hand.

What some of the Alex's supporters do not seem to grasp is that a change in circumstances requires a change in how we deal with it. Alex despite his numbers and stats is limited. He doesn't use the entire field and this does not take advantage of the offense weapons that are now available to a niner QB.

Until this year I didn't pay as much attention to who should be playing Qb because their were no many other variables that interfered with a clear evaluation of the position. This year it is obvious that Alex can be improved upon. It's just a question of when. I am becoming more convinced that Kamp might be a better option even now. Some of you should take a real objective look at Alex and you will see that the team makes him not the other way around. This is his 8th year. He is not going to get better. He is not a bad QB, It's just that the team can do better. Remember no other QB has played for this team under Harbough either.


Exceptional post. Applause

I agree with pretty much everything, especially this part:

Quote:
A QB's stats are not always a true reflection of a players actual value to a teams record. It depends on how those stats were acquired. Interceptions in Alex's case being one. Alex low interception rate reflects his caution not his accuracy. There is a time when caution is merited. Last year it was ideal because the defense dominated and kept the other teams out of the end zone. This along with special teams and turnovers provided constantly good field position for the offense. It was not necessary for the offense to score that much. Most scoring was done through field goals. The offense lack of efficiency on third down and in the red zone did not hurt them that much. That was the trade off for Alex's caution and lack of interceptions. he did not have to make higher risk throws that are a necessity under different conditions. Alex was ideal. But it required other factors.

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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

A list of quarterbacks who have finished as one of the top 5 rated QBs in the league over the last 20 years:

Chad Pennington (2008 - 2nd, 2002 - 1st)
David Garrard (2007 - 3rd)
Marc Bulger (2005 - 5th)
Jake Plummer (2003 - 5th)
Brad Johnson (2002 - 3rd, 1996 - 3rd)
Brian Griese (2000 - 1st)
Steve Beuerlein (1999 - 2nd)
Jeff George (1999 - 3rd, 1997 - 4th)
Vinny Testaverde (1998 - 2nd, 1996 - 5th)
Chris Chandler (1998 - 4th, 1997 - 2nd)
Jim Harbaugh (1995 - 1st)
Erik Kramer (1995 - 4th)
Scott Mitchell (1995 - 5th)
Jim Everett (1994 - 5th)
Chris Miller (1992 - 2nd)

And then there've been guys like Aaron Brooks, Elvis Grbac, Charlie Batch, Neil O'Donnell, Jeff Hostetler, and Ty Detmer who've made it into the top 10 (sometimes on more than one occasion).



In fact, 1995 is a really fun year to look at, because Steve Young, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, John Elway, and Jim Kelly, all future Hall-of-Famers, did not finish in the top 5 for passer rating. Young, Moon, and Marino all went to the Pro Bowl. Kramer and Mitchell did not.

Of the 15 players listed on the list above - only Chad Pennington, David Garrard, Marc Bulger, and Jake Plummer played for less than 3 teams. In other words, they were mostly all the definition of journeymen quarterbacks. Pennington, Garrard, Plummer, Johnson, and Griese are the only ones with career winning records. Plummer and Garrard each have 2 more wins than losses on their resumes. Grieseand Pennington boast 7. Johnson - the only one with a winning record worth having (and a Superbowl ring for that matter).

Basically, being a highly-rated passer isn't all it's cracked up to be, and doesn't mean the position cannot be improved upon. In this case - I like Alex, and agree he's doing a good job, but the "he's the 3rd highest-rated passer" argument I'm not buying as anything more than him having a great ability to be cautious with the football.

Also, Pennington, George, Testaverde, Harbaugh, Everett, and Miller were all former first rounders as well. Not really much of a point of proof or anything, just wanted to say there was a fair share of talent in that group itself.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
I'm not buying as anything more than him having a great ability to be cautious with the football.


Being cautious with the ball while picking the right moments to take shots is what helped give us much success over these last two years. I'm cool with that.

y2lamanaki wrote:
In this case - I like Alex


Not that it matters, but I don't believe you. No one would go to this much trouble to try and hack down on a player they liked. There are a handful on this site that go far out of there way to get their lil digs in... to the point where it is painfully obvious what they really want.

Really... don't much care.. just had to say that. I don't think that this is breaking your forum rules by saying that much... but if it is... then do what ya gotta do. Totally prepared for it.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good post Y2. Shows that stats or ratings aren't the end all be all, and it's easy to overrate/underrate players based on them.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

wilmtalk wrote:


What some of the Alex's supporters do not seem to grasp is that a change in circumstances requires a change in how we deal with it. Alex despite his numbers and stats is limited. He doesn't use the entire field and this does not take advantage of the offense weapons that are now available to a niner QB.



What most of Alex's detractors do not seem to grasp is that there is such a thing as "offensive philosophy" and we clearly have one - and it's different from most other teams. Alex executes the offense as it is designed. To me many of the criticisms I continually read about Alex are actually criticisms about our coaching staff and their offensive philosophy. While I appreciate how much fun it is to watch a team sling the ball all over the place, personally I prefer watching my team win. After watching the game last week you're thinking Kap should replace Alex. Funny how people react differently because I'm thinking that if Alex wasn't hurt we would likely have won the game. Kap might be fun to watch, but Alex's "dink and dunk" style took us to a 19-5 record the last year and a half (not sure but is there any team with a better record over last season and the first half of this year?) and to a very nice TD drive that got us back into the game last week before he was hurt.

Another thing many detractors don't seem to grasp is why we run the offense we do, and why Alex is important to it'success. Prior to Alex leaving the game the Time of Possession favored us by almost 2 to 1. After he left and Kap took over it was almost 2 to 1 in the Rams' favor. It's seems ironic to me that you, and others are talking about the defense not being as strong without accounting for ball control and time of possession. Just before Alex left the game he had just led us on a TD drive that consumed over 8 minutes of clock time. That's over eight minutes of rest for the defense, and over of eight minutes less time for the Rams' offense to sit on the bench.

A clock eating, ball control offense is who we WANT to be, not who we are forced to be because of Alex's "limitations". Alex wasn't forced on Harbaugh. He has had two chances to find another QB. He picked the guy he wanted - to run the kind of offense he wants to run.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
Good post Y2. Shows that stats or ratings aren't the end all be all, and it's easy to overrate/underrate players based on them.


Ummm ... With Alex as QB we were 13-3 last year and 6-2 this year before he went out with his injury. That makes us 19-5 over a season and a half of play. Now that we're winning, is the team's record not as relevant as it used to be when people said he was responsible for us not winning.
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SoCalNiner


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Edit: I posted in the Alex thread. No need to bring him up in the Kaepernick thread anymore.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
A list of quarterbacks who have finished as one of the top 5 rated QBs in the league over the last 20 years:

Chad Pennington ...

In fact, 1995 is a really fun year to look at, because Steve Young, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, John Elway, and Jim Kelly, all future Hall-of-Famers, did not finish in the top 5 for passer rating. Young, Moon, and Marino all went to the Pro Bowl. Kramer and Mitchell did not.


Interesting stats, but I'm wondering about how they relate to the discussion in this thread. I interpret them as meaning that a guy can finish high in QBR in a season and still not have a very good career. True, but that's because they didn't have seasons like those every year. If you look at career stats the list of highest career QBR is a who's who list of NFL QBs. So saying a guy who had a good year is not in the HOF doesn't negate the fact that in that particular year he played well. And it says nothing about how his play affected his team's ability to win in that year.

It is after all about winning. While none of the guys you cited ended up in the HOF, look at the records of their teams in those good years they had. Chandler's team was 14-2 in 98, Testaverde's team 12-4 inb 98, Griese's team 11-5 in 00, Pennington's team 11-5 in 08, Johnson's team 12-4 in 02. I didn't check every season of every qb you mentioned, but out of 15 I checked, 12 had winning records, and many had very good records. So what I take from your stats is that a QB having a very good year can really help his team to a good record.

You highlighted 95, and again it would be worth going beyond whether that year's QBR equated to entry to the HOF. What I want to point out is their teams' records that year. Young's team was 11-5, Marino's 9-7, Moon's 8-8, Kelly's 10-6. Now for the other guys you mentioned - Harbaugh's team was 9-7, Mitchell's 10-6 and Kramer's 9-7. I'm not saying those latter three guys were as good as the others, just as I am not suggesting Alex is better than Brees or Stafford because he has a higher QBR. What I AM saying is that Alex fine play is contributing to our success - contrary to the suggestion that we are winning inspite of him, not because of him.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 17, 2012 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Interesting stats, but I'm wondering about how they relate to the discussion in this thread. I interpret them as meaning that a guy can finish high in QBR in a season and still not have a very good career. True, but that's because they didn't have seasons like those every year. If you look at career stats the list of highest career QBR is a who's who list of NFL QBs. So saying a guy who had a good year is not in the HOF doesn't negate the fact that in that particular year he played well. And it says nothing about how his play affected his team's ability to win in that year.


This is 100% what it meant. And it was in reference to Alex Smith specifically because he HASN'T ever been rated this highly before (same as those players) and because he is this first time doesn't mean he will again, and certainly doesn't mean he's exempt from being improved upon, which was wilmtalk's point. Because the offensive team CAN do better. It just remains to be seen if Alex or Kaepernick can be the QB to lead them through it.
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Forge


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 18, 2012 9:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
A list of quarterbacks who have finished as one of the top 5 rated QBs in the league over the last 20 years:

Chad Pennington (2008 - 2nd, 2002 - 1st)
David Garrard (2007 - 3rd)
Marc Bulger (2005 - 5th)
Jake Plummer (2003 - 5th)
Brad Johnson (2002 - 3rd, 1996 - 3rd)
Brian Griese (2000 - 1st)
Steve Beuerlein (1999 - 2nd)
Jeff George (1999 - 3rd, 1997 - 4th)
Vinny Testaverde (1998 - 2nd, 1996 - 5th)
Chris Chandler (1998 - 4th, 1997 - 2nd)
Jim Harbaugh (1995 - 1st)
Erik Kramer (1995 - 4th)
Scott Mitchell (1995 - 5th)
Jim Everett (1994 - 5th)
Chris Miller (1992 - 2nd)

And then there've been guys like Aaron Brooks, Elvis Grbac, Charlie Batch, Neil O'Donnell, Jeff Hostetler, and Ty Detmer who've made it into the top 10 (sometimes on more than one occasion).



In fact, 1995 is a really fun year to look at, because Steve Young, Dan Marino, Warren Moon, John Elway, and Jim Kelly, all future Hall-of-Famers, did not finish in the top 5 for passer rating. Young, Moon, and Marino all went to the Pro Bowl. Kramer and Mitchell did not.

Of the 15 players listed on the list above - only Chad Pennington, David Garrard, Marc Bulger, and Jake Plummer played for less than 3 teams. In other words, they were mostly all the definition of journeymen quarterbacks. Pennington, Garrard, Plummer, Johnson, and Griese are the only ones with career winning records. Plummer and Garrard each have 2 more wins than losses on their resumes. Grieseand Pennington boast 7. Johnson - the only one with a winning record worth having (and a Superbowl ring for that matter).

Basically, being a highly-rated passer isn't all it's cracked up to be, and doesn't mean the position cannot be improved upon. In this case - I like Alex, and agree he's doing a good job, but the "he's the 3rd highest-rated passer" argument I'm not buying as anything more than him having a great ability to be cautious with the football.

Also, Pennington, George, Testaverde, Harbaugh, Everett, and Miller were all former first rounders as well. Not really much of a point of proof or anything, just wanted to say there was a fair share of talent in that group itself.


Interesting stats. Out of all those QBs, the only one I would have termed "good" and not just average/above average is Pennington. I always felt that if not for the multiple shoulder surgerys that sapped every ounce of throwing power from Pennington, he would have been one of the better QBs of the last 20 years...I really thought he was talented and smart enough to be "that guy". Out of the rest, Testeverde and George definitely had the talent, they just never totally capitalized on it.
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ilovenastia


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 4:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

You guys are insane. Alex is a top 10 QB in this league, probably around 8 and you want to replace him with some raw 2nd year player? I'm not sure if you guys noticed, but the offense went down the drain with Kaepernick in the game. He missed WIDE open players for sure fire touchdowns.

He's not ready. I doubt he'll be ready next year. Why do you guys want to replace Alex so badly? It doesn't make any sense.
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