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The playoff hunt thread.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13094
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SDN40 wrote:
Possible NFC playoffs QB's

Matt Ryan
Aaron Rodgers
Colin Kaepernick
RG III
Russell Wilson

Jay Cutler

Hmmmmmmmmmm me like


Do not want..
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13094
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 1:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How I set up my formula:

Close games 7
Decisive wins 7
Decisive losses 1

Best case: (close games+decisive wins)/games 93.33
Worst case: decisive wins/games 46.67
Adjust Win: (best case+worst case)/2 70.00
SOS: all opponents adjust win/games 49.33
SOS Adj Win: adjust win*SOS 34.53

Opponent Adj SOS: all opponent SOS adj Win/games 25.29
SOS 2 Adj Win: SOS adj win*opponent adj SOS 87.33


SOS 2 Adj Win is the power ranking number
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xDD80x


Joined: 28 Dec 2009
Posts: 942
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 2:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are all 64 non-tie NFC playoff scenarios in graphic form, distribute this graphic as you see fit:

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CWood21


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Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 35190
Location: 'Merica
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's my updated predictions.

AFC
1.) HOU
2.) DEN
3.) NE
4.) BAL
5.) IND
6.) CIN

NE over CIN, BAL over IND
HOU over BAL, DEN over NE
DEN over HOU


NFC
1.) ATL
2.) GB
3.) SF
4.) WAS
5.) SEA
6.) CHI

SF over CHI, SEA over WAS
SEA over ATL, GB over SF
GB over SEA

GB over DEN
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Pack4life7


Joined: 09 Jan 2007
Posts: 3218
Location: Illinois
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
Here's my updated predictions.

AFC
1.) HOU
2.) DEN
3.) NE
4.) BAL
5.) IND
6.) CIN

NE over CIN, BAL over IND
HOU over BAL, DEN over NE
DEN over HOU


NFC
1.) ATL
2.) GB
3.) SF
4.) WAS
5.) SEA
6.) CHI

SF over CHI, SEA over WAS
SEA over ATL, GB over SF
GB over SEA

GB over DEN


Sweet revenge and as we win our 2nd in three years Mike Murphy holds up the trophy and says into the microphone

"This one's for Aaron"

The only things that would have made this run more perfect is if somehow the Giants got in and we beat them. They're an awful matchup for us and it's definitely best that we avoid them but nothing would be sweeter than exercising some demons on the way to ring #2.
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UpTheSeam85


Joined: 23 Aug 2011
Posts: 835
PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we are playing on wild card weekend, the only team we could be playing is Minnesota correct? And in the divisional round, more than likely we will be playing SF unless they lose to either the Vikings, Bears, Giants, or Redskins?
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 24, 2012 3:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

UpTheSeam85 wrote:
If we are playing on wild card weekend, the only team we could be playing is Minnesota correct? And in the divisional round, more than likely we will be playing SF unless they lose to either the Vikings, Bears, Giants, or Redskins?


Correct.
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blankman0021


Joined: 02 May 2007
Posts: 1908
Location: MKE
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 6:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Can somebody help me out ASAP. I need to get my schedule into work to work one weekend day the first weekend of the new year. Which happens to be the first weekend of the playoffs. If the packers lose and end up the 3rd seed, does anybody know what day (saturday or sunday) they would end up playing? If they win, they don't play which would make it easy.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13094
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

blankman0021 wrote:
Can somebody help me out ASAP. I need to get my schedule into work to work one weekend day the first weekend of the new year. Which happens to be the first weekend of the playoffs. If the packers lose and end up the 3rd seed, does anybody know what day (saturday or sunday) they would end up playing? If they win, they don't play which would make it easy.


so you figure
3 Patriots 6 Bengals
4 Ravens 5 Colts

3 Packers 6 Chicago/Minnesota/New York
4 Washington/Dallas 5 Seattle

Packers are probably the 2nd highest rated game (behind Washington/Seattle.)
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Sandybaby716


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
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Location: Rhode Island
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Justo, I would be interested in seeing how your formula does when it only involves their home/away splits. For example, if the Packers have a higher rating overall at home, and the seahwaks have a lower rating on the road, and they play in Lambeau, would that effect the outcomes?

Homefield crowds can be a very big factor.
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In all fairness it is kind of rude to just lay injured at their feet while the Lions defensive players are trying to hold a completely unrelated dance party.

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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13094
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sandybaby716 wrote:
Justo, I would be interested in seeing how your formula does when it only involves their home/away splits. For example, if the Packers have a higher rating overall at home, and the seahwaks have a lower rating on the road, and they play in Lambeau, would that effect the outcomes?

Homefield crowds can be a very big factor.
I haven't really messed with the home and away stuff but I would assume GB would be ahead. Seattle's home and away numbers are way different just by looking at the opponents/scores of games. I'll have them up in a bit
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 2:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
Here's my updated predictions.

AFC
1.) HOU
2.) DEN
3.) NE
4.) BAL
5.) IND
6.) CIN

NE over CIN, BAL over IND
HOU over BAL, DEN over NE
DEN over HOU


NFC
1.) ATL
2.) GB
3.) SF
4.) WAS
5.) SEA
6.) CHI

SF over CHI, SEA over WAS
SEA over ATL, GB over SF
GB over SEA

GB over DEN


I don't know if SEA can go into both ATL and SF and win both. SEA is a beast at home but not so much on the road.
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incognito_man


Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 30901
Location: Madison
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1] Houston
2] Denver
3] New England
4] Baltimore
5] Indy
6] Cincinnati

New England over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Indy

Denver over New England
Houston over Baltimore

Denver over Houston

1] Atlanta
2] Green Bay
3] San Fran
4] Dallas
5] Seattle
6] Chicago

San Fran over Chicago
Dallas over Seattle

Atlanta over Dallas
Green Bay over San Fran

Green Bay over Atlanta

Green Bay over Denver
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HyponGrey


Joined: 23 Jun 2012
Posts: 3727
Location: Down the road from NFL Films
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
1] Houston
2] Denver
3] New England
4] Baltimore
5] Indy
6] Cincinnati

New England over Cincinnati
Baltimore over Indy

Denver over New England
Houston over Baltimore

Denver over Houston

1] Atlanta
2] Green Bay
3] San Fran
4] Dallas
5] Seattle
6] Chicago

San Fran over Chicago
Dallas over Seattle

Atlanta over Dallas
Green Bay over San Fran

Green Bay over Atlanta

Green Bay over Denver
Is it alright if I want CHI to beat SF so we can take them a 3rd time? Won't happen, but it'd be ideal
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jfinley88


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
Posts: 11090
PostPosted: Fri Dec 28, 2012 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We beat Minnesota

Dallas beats Washington

Seattle beats St. Louis

Chicago beats Detroit

San Fran beats Arizona

#1 Atlanta
#2 Green Bay
--------------------
#3 San Francisco
#4 Dallas
#5 Seattle
#6 Chicago

Then we pray Seattle and Chicago win!

Atlanta vs. Seattle

Green Bay vs. Chicago


Green Bay vs. Seattle

Smile
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