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Bills (3-5) 2013 "Wish List"
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Maxmw22


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK I have my official wish list right now,



New Head Coach:

Ken Whisenhunt (I think he gets the axe this year)

1st rd: LB Manti T'eo


2nd rd: QB Tajh Boyd (yah that's right)


3rd rd: WR Jared Abrrederis

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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cards are my favorite NFC team - I lived there for 8 years...it was bound to happen. Wink Anyway, in Ken's career as a HC he has ran the ball an average of 39% of the time! He stresses the pass 1st in a passing league philosophy even more than Chan does! No freakin' thank you.
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Trentwannabe


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yibbyl wrote:
Cards are my favorite NFC team - I lived there for 8 years...it was bound to happen. Wink Anyway, in Ken's career as a HC he has ran the ball an average of 39% of the time! He stresses the pass 1st in a passing league philosophy even more than Chan does! No freakin' thank you.


I wonder if that stat is skewed due to the Cards having had Warner, Fitz, and Boldin at one point. Not to mention their RBs were never much to write home about, where as in Buffalo clearly our o-line is built to run and we arguably have the best RB tandem in the league. Getting Whisenhunt would be a huge upgrade for us and I would be all for it.
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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Strongly disagree. Whis is who he is. He calls plays based on his comfort with those plays in his system, not based on the strengths of the team. Please read this conversation from the Cards forum:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15140200#15140200
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khodder


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trentwannabe wrote:
I wonder if that stat is skewed due to the Cards having had Warner, Fitz, and Boldin at one point. Not to mention their RBs were never much to write home about, where as in Buffalo clearly our o-line is built to run and we arguably have the best RB tandem in the league. Getting Whisenhunt would be a huge upgrade for us and I would be all for it.


Look at 2010 for a perfect example. Anderson/Skelton/Hall at QB. Wells at RB with Hightower.

The Cardinals ran 931 plays of those, 320 were running plays. We had a running back that averaged 4.8 YPC for the 2010 season and we handed him the football 153 times.
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Maxmw22


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yibbyl wrote:
Strongly disagree. Whis is who he is. He calls plays based on his comfort with those plays in his system, not based on the strengths of the team. Please read this conversation from the Cards forum:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15140200#15140200


I see what you are saying, even this year with Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley and he is averaging about 39.5 passing attempts to 22.7 rushing attempts per game.

As a reference the Bills are averaging 32.5 passing attempts per game and 27 rushing attempts per game.


Take that how you wish, I think the climate that Buffalo plays in has a little bit to do with it, but overall with a passing/rushing distribution of plays, it would more than likely be a lateral move.
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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some more info, so as to get a better idea of what Whisenhunt had to deal with in terms of a running game since he came aboard in `07...Watch what happens to the attempts as the productivity improves. I included the Bills rankings as well for comparision:

2007
Cardinals 25th in attempts, 30th in YPC
Bills 12th in attempts, 15th (t) in YPC

2008
Cardinals 32nd in attempts, 31st in YPC
Bills 13th in attempts, 14th (t) in YPC

2009
Cardinals 32nd in attempts, 19th in YPC
Bills 21st in attempts, 8th (t) in YPC

2010
Cardinals 32nd in attempts, 10th (t) in YPC
Bills 25th (t) in attempts, 10th (t) in YPC

2011
Cardinals 28th in attempts, 15th (t) in YPC
Bills 27th in attempts, 4th (t) in YPC

2012 (so far)
Cardinals 28th in attempts, 29th in YPC
Bills 15th in attempts, 3rd (t) in YPC

Kind of did the same thing that Chan did his 1st 2 seasons here, huh? We complain that Chan doesn't run the ball enough, but Ken has not proven willing to lean on his running game when it works, either. Sure he didn't have the same quality of a running game as we did, but there were years when it was quite effective and he still shrugged it off! Another thing to think about, with fewer attempts, also comes fewer possibilities of breaking a long run, so he takes himself out of the running so to speak for that. Ken doesn't emphasize the running game, because his philosophy heavily favors a passing attack. It's really that simple.

Again, no thanks.
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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maxmw22 wrote:
Yibbyl wrote:
Strongly disagree. Whis is who he is. He calls plays based on his comfort with those plays in his system, not based on the strengths of the team. Please read this conversation from the Cards forum:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15140200#15140200


I see what you are saying, even this year with Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley and he is averaging about 39.5 passing attempts to 22.7 rushing attempts per game.

As a reference the Bills are averaging 32.5 passing attempts per game and 27 rushing attempts per game.


Take that how you wish, I think the climate that Buffalo plays in has a little bit to do with it, but overall with a passing/rushing distribution of plays, it would more than likely be a lateral move.


Now we're closer to being on the same page.
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leeevans83d


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

With today's move, I think Alex Smith is out. I would LOVE to have him here.
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TommyC376


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

leeevans83d wrote:
With today's move, I think Alex Smith is out. I would LOVE to have him here.
I think the asking price would be too much for a trade. If he were to come her it would be via free agency, once he is cut.


Max, I love Taj Boyd
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Maxmw22


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TommyC376 wrote:
leeevans83d wrote:
With today's move, I think Alex Smith is out. I would LOVE to have him here.
I think the asking price would be too much for a trade. If he were to come her it would be via free agency, once he is cut.


Max, I love Taj Boyd




I ran some numbers on Fitzpatrick's contract too guys, here is the breakdown of it:

2013: salary $4.25mil, bonus $6.2 mil (3 mil roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2014: salary $4.35 mil, bonus $6.2 mil ($3 mil roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2015: salary $7.2 mil , bonus $3.2 mil ($200k workout bonus)
2016: salary $8.75 mil, bonus $1.2 mil ($200k workout bonus)
2017: salary $9.45 mil, bonus $200k workout bonus


So if we cut him after this year, all his bonus minus the workout bonuses and roster bonuses count against the 2013 cap. So cap hits if and when we cut him:

after 2012 season: $5.75 mil cap hit (17 mil in bonus money owed, $6 mil being roster and $1 mil being workout bonuses recouped, save 4.25 mil in salary)

after 2013 season : $2.65 mil cap hit (10.8 mil in bonus money owed, $3 mil in roster bonus, $800k in workout bonuses recouped, 4.35 mil in salary recouped

This makes me think that after next year, Fitzpatrick will be gone, We still take a hit in the cap, but we really will only take a hit of $2.65 mil (and before you say it, yes it is technically $7 mil in dead cap money, which is true, but you save $4.35 mil in his base salary, you just can't spend that money, ie/ the Bills should just take their cap ceiling and lower by $2.65 mil for the following year)



and Tommy

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TommyC376


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maxmw22 wrote:
TommyC376 wrote:
leeevans83d wrote:
With today's move, I think Alex Smith is out. I would LOVE to have him here.
I think the asking price would be too much for a trade. If he were to come her it would be via free agency, once he is cut.


Max, I love Taj Boyd




I ran some numbers on Fitzpatrick's contract too guys, here is the breakdown of it:

2013: salary $4.25mil, bonus $6.2 mil (3 mil roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2014: salary $4.35 mil, bonus $6.2 mil ($3 mil roster bonus, $200k workout bonus)
2015: salary $7.2 mil , bonus $3.2 mil ($200k workout bonus)
2016: salary $8.75 mil, bonus $1.2 mil ($200k workout bonus)
2017: salary $9.45 mil, bonus $200k workout bonus


So if we cut him after this year, all his bonus minus the workout bonuses and roster bonuses count against the 2013 cap. So cap hits if and when we cut him:

after 2012 season: $5.75 mil cap hit (17 mil in bonus money owed, $6 mil being roster and $1 mil being workout bonuses recouped, save 4.25 mil in salary)

after 2013 season : $2.65 mil cap hit (10.8 mil in bonus money owed, $3 mil in roster bonus, $800k in workout bonuses recouped, 4.35 mil in salary recouped

This makes me think that after next year, Fitzpatrick will be gone, We still take a hit in the cap, but we really will only take a hit of $2.65 mil (and before you say it, yes it is technically $7 mil in dead cap money, which is true, but you save $4.35 mil in his base salary, you just can't spend that money, ie/ the Bills should just take their cap ceiling and lower by $2.65 mil for the following year)



and Tommy

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Maxmw22


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yibbyl wrote:
Maxmw22 wrote:
Yibbyl wrote:
Strongly disagree. Whis is who he is. He calls plays based on his comfort with those plays in his system, not based on the strengths of the team. Please read this conversation from the Cards forum:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15140200#15140200


I see what you are saying, even this year with Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley and he is averaging about 39.5 passing attempts to 22.7 rushing attempts per game.

As a reference the Bills are averaging 32.5 passing attempts per game and 27 rushing attempts per game.


Take that how you wish, I think the climate that Buffalo plays in has a little bit to do with it, but overall with a passing/rushing distribution of plays, it would more than likely be a lateral move.


Now we're closer to being on the same page.


Yah I am currently looking at some stats and what not and I think I have changed my mind on head coahes, Norv Turner will probably be availble, but he is not as pass happy as Whiz, but a little more than Chan, though if we get a young QB, I think Norv would be good at bringing him along. It is tough finding a coach that is run heavy and a track record of winning that is out of a job (or will be).

Believe it or not, even Andy Reid has averaged more runs per game than us this year (us 27 per game, Eagles 27.5 per game), but don't make that seem like we are both low, the Bills are 15th this year in run attempts.
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TommyC376


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 5:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maxmw22 wrote:
Believe it or not, even Andy Reid has averaged more runs per game than us this year (us 27 per game, Eagles 27.5 per game), but don't make that seem like we are both low, the Bills are 15th this year in run attempts.
We should be in the top 10 in rush attempts with the 2 RBs we have on our roster.
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Yibbyl


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 6:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Maxmw22 wrote:
Yibbyl wrote:
Maxmw22 wrote:
Yibbyl wrote:
Strongly disagree. Whis is who he is. He calls plays based on his comfort with those plays in his system, not based on the strengths of the team. Please read this conversation from the Cards forum:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15140200#15140200


I see what you are saying, even this year with Kolb, Skelton, and Lindley and he is averaging about 39.5 passing attempts to 22.7 rushing attempts per game.

As a reference the Bills are averaging 32.5 passing attempts per game and 27 rushing attempts per game.


Take that how you wish, I think the climate that Buffalo plays in has a little bit to do with it, but overall with a passing/rushing distribution of plays, it would more than likely be a lateral move.


Now we're closer to being on the same page.


Yah I am currently looking at some stats and what not and I think I have changed my mind on head coahes, Norv Turner will probably be availble, but he is not as pass happy as Whiz, but a little more than Chan, though if we get a young QB, I think Norv would be good at bringing him along. It is tough finding a coach that is run heavy and a track record of winning that is out of a job (or will be).

Believe it or not, even Andy Reid has averaged more runs per game than us this year (us 27 per game, Eagles 27.5 per game), but don't make that seem like we are both low, the Bills are 15th this year in run attempts.

I'd love to see Turner here as an OC, but do have some concerns of him as a HC. Long story short though, I still think he would be better than Gailey. (And could you imagine if we could snag Rivers as well?!?) Also, Norv has been all over the map in calling running plays. If you look at his combined career as both HC & OC, he averages just under 46%, which is my desired target. I think his repeatedly fluctuating % is an indication that he maximizes the skills of his players. Now Gailey has averaged closer to 48% as OC & HC, but there was an obvious change in philosophy to a pass dominant offense since 2008 and he hasn't looked back.

I have many reasons why I want a coach who will run the ball 46% of the time or even more:

1. Our defense still is not as good as we had hoped and the more time we eat up, the less opportunities for the opponent to exploit our D.
2. The weather, especially the winds in the Ralph - not only tough on kickers, but only strong-armed QB's with respectable or better accuracy thrive here. Fitz doesn't have that arm strength and most rookies won't either.
3. This being a passing league, most defenses focus on the passing attack first, sometimes at the expense of defending the run. This makes a good running game even more valuable.
4. Most importantly, our OL & RB's rock!
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