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(Alex) Smith makes it too easy for defenses
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chrissooner49er wrote:
It's because it makes too much sense...


Because something makes too much sense means absolutely nothing in this debate. And that goes for both sides.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:


I am a simple man. I call things as I see them. Many of these posts I have been reading are completely laced with disdain for Alex Smith. They are just sugar-coated all nice and pretty in the guise of "innocent criticism".



May I just ask, why does everything have to be so black and white?
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

John232 wrote:
oldman9er wrote:


I am a simple man. I call things as I see them. Many of these posts I have been reading are completely laced with disdain for Alex Smith. They are just sugar-coated all nice and pretty in the guise of "innocent criticism".



May I just ask, why does everything have to be so black and white?


This is a fan forum. My reaction was a gut reaction to what I read. Why go through so much effort to combat someone else throwing positives at our team's QB?

I was hungover and was not in a friendly state of mind to be reading a long elaboration of why another long elaboration was created in an effort to minimize our QB. Just is what it is. I am not interested in apologizing for such a reaction. As I said, I am a simple man. I trust my instincts, and I judge situations my own way.

None of this or what I just said is important though. Let's get on with it...

Go Niners... Go Alex.. Go Kaepernick... whateverz...
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 2:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Continued from here:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15075162#15075162

(moved it here as it will end up about Alex)


big9erfan wrote:
Spoken like a guy who believes QBR is completely meaningless, even though most people accept it, even if somewhat flawed, as the best measure of a QB's overall performance.


Who accepts it as such? ESPN thought it flawed enough to create a whole new formula that they felt was a better indicator of overall QB performance. Advanced stats like expected points added, win probability, and adjusted yards/pass were created to give a better view of who was succeeding. Some people think simple stats like yards/attempt and interception percentage are more important. I haven't heard QBR considered the best in years.

I googled what's the most effective way to judge how good a quarterback is, and this is the first result:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=503286

Plus at it's most basic, QBR favors completion percentage which is just goofy. What would you rather - a quarterback who completes 3 straight passes for 9 yards and has to punt? Or a quarterback who completes 1 of 3 passes for 20 yards and a first down?

3 of 3 for 9 yards. (79.2 QBR)

1 of 3 for 20 yards. (57.6 QBR)


Or who had the better game?

17 of 20 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs (127.1 QBR) sacked 5 times in a loss

29 of 45 for 400 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (113.2 QBR) never sacked in a win.

QBR might be an interesting stat, but it's outdated and very flawed (which I recognize you admitted), and again - there are plenty of people who disagree that it's the best measure of a QB's overall performance.
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Ataal


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 3:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
Continued from here:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15075162#15075162

(moved it here as it will end up about Alex)


big9erfan wrote:
Spoken like a guy who believes QBR is completely meaningless, even though most people accept it, even if somewhat flawed, as the best measure of a QB's overall performance.


Who accepts it as such? ESPN thought it flawed enough to create a whole new formula that they felt was a better indicator of overall QB performance. Advanced stats like expected points added, win probability, and adjusted yards/pass were created to give a better view of who was succeeding. Some people think simple stats like yards/attempt and interception percentage are more important. I haven't heard QBR considered the best in years.

I googled what's the most effective way to judge how good a quarterback is, and this is the first result:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=503286

Plus at it's most basic, QBR favors completion percentage which is just goofy. What would you rather - a quarterback who completes 3 straight passes for 9 yards and has to punt? Or a quarterback who completes 1 of 3 passes for 20 yards and a first down?

3 of 3 for 9 yards. (79.2 QBR)

1 of 3 for 20 yards. (57.6 QBR)


Or who had the better game?

17 of 20 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs (127.1 QBR) sacked 5 times in a loss

29 of 45 for 400 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (113.2 QBR) never sacked in a win.

QBR might be an interesting stat, but it's outdated and very flawed (which I recognize you admitted), and again - there are plenty of people who disagree that it's the best measure of a QB's overall performance.


When you put it into terms of one drive, or even one game, yes. QBR is a horrible way to "rate" your quarterback. However, if you use it for a full season and take other contextual things into account, like wins and other key factors, you have a darn good feel of how your quarterback is doing. Still not perfect, but it is still the best, when used in context, out there, in my opinion. Name something better?

Top 10 QBR:
1st Aaron Rodgers QB, GB
2nd Peyton Manning QB, DEN
3rd Alex Smith QB, SF
4th Tom Brady QB, NE
5th Robert Griffin III QB, WAS
6th Ben Roethlisberger QB, PIT
7th Drew Brees QB, NO
8th Matt Schaub QB, HOU
9th Matt Ryan QB, ATL
10th Josh Freeman QB, TB

Only one guy there on a losing team. One guy at .500. 8 out of 10 have a winning record. Half of them are on teams currently at the top of their divisions and I think that will go up by the season's end.

I don't think anyone's claiming Alex Smith is the 3rd best quarterback in the league, but he's certainly in the top 10 this year and his QBR supports that. Eli Manning is 22nd in the league in QBR and is obviously an outlier, but the team's recent spiral is what is contributing to that. At the end of the season, when we can see it as a whole, he'll most likely be in the top 15, maybe even top 10, where he should be.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ataal wrote:
When you put it into terms of one drive, or even one game, yes. QBR is a horrible way to "rate" your quarterback. However, if you use it for a full season and take other contextual things into account, like wins and other key factors, you have a darn good feel of how your quarterback is doing.


Before I really answer this, keep in mind that what I'm going to do is eventually argue that Alex Smith IS playing well this year, and much of what he does IS a product of our offensive philosophy. I want that up front so the following about QBR can be looked at a bit more objectively.

The bad thing about QBR is it DOESN'T take contextual things like wins and key factors into account, but I get your general point. I agree that QBR is an interesting tool to help get you there, and factoring in wins/other key factors does help. But even QBR over a full season isn't necessarily completely meaningful:

QB A: 275 of 500, 4800 yards, 44 TDs, 14 INTs (105.6 QBR)

QB B: 245 of 350, 3100 yards, 18 TDs, 6 INTs (107.3 QBR)


If both finished the seasons 13-3, both had the same quality defense, same quality offensive line - who played better? Not the guy who got his team 1700 extra yards and 26 extra TDs? Even if you assume that all 8 of those extra INTs were returned for TDs by the opposing teams for a full 100 yards, that means the one quarterback still netted 900 more yards than the other, netted 18 extra TDs, yet isn't rated higher. Football at its most basic is a game of points - and in my eyes, the one quarterback does it clearly better than the others, and it's the lower rated QB.

Or just look at your list - Brady is listed below Alex Smith despite having more yards, more TDs, and less INTs. In what way is Brady a worse QB this year?

I think QBR is what it is - an interesting stat to help indicate how players are performing. I think it is what it is. But when someone says "This guy's the third-rated QB in the league" it doesn't mean anything because I know why (completion percentage) that's looking that way. Completion percentage is factoring in way too strongly in QBR, and when our philosophy involves throwing the ball 3 yards to the WR/RB/TE and letting them make plays or just control clock - well, of course the completion percentage is going to be high, which in turn is going to raise the QBR. In fact, I think it's better when used situationally than over a full-year. What good is it if in those stats above QB B is 175 of 210 for 2100 yards, 13 TDs, 1 INT when playing with a lead but is 70 of 140 for 1000 yards, 5 TDs, 4 INTs when losing?

Either way, I agree 100% when you say this:

Quote:
I don't think anyone's claiming Alex Smith is the 3rd best quarterback in the league, but he's certainly in the top 10 this year and his QBR supports that.


Absolutely. His QBR (as well as the other items I mention) is an indicator that he's been a top 10 QB. I truly believe that. But it's just that - it's an indicator. I would probably place him in the 8-10 range. He's played extremely well, he's ran our offense, he's been efficient. He has areas he can improve on. That's how it goes. Can he improve there? That's the question. But if someone says "if you can find an improvement over the 3rd highest rated QB," then that's taking one statistic and assuming that's the be-all end-all of QB ranking.

Now - our philosophy relies heavily on a strong running game, a great run-blocking offensive line, and controlling the clock so our defense, one of the best, if not the best in the NFL, is constantly fresh and even more difficult to run on. Again, at its most basic - the idea is to score more points than the other team. Our philosophy is incredibly sound because it focuses on the two biggest strengths of this team (running attack and defense) and allows those two to combine to lead us to wins. Everyone should understand that. We do that very well. Therefore, the passing attack (which is secondary) doesn't need to be one of the top passing offenses (in terms of yards/TDs) in the NFL.

I don't know about others in this debate, but that's how I see it, and I think if you accept only that last paragraph, you have the basic truth of the matter.

Quote:
Still not perfect, but it is still the best, when used in context, out there, in my opinion. Name something better?


I can't - but I can name things that aren't worse. Any of the stats I mentioned above (expected yards added, win probability added, adjusted yards per pass attempt, ESPN's QBR) all have merit to them and all give a different look to how a QB is doing. But it's just a look - none of them are perfect either (Alex ranks 19th, 17th, 6th, and 8th respectively). I know a lot of people dislike it but I think ESPN's does the best job of all the ones mentioned (Alex ranks 8th), but it's not without its faults as well.

In almost any one you look at - Alex is in the top half of the league, and the ones that take into numerous factors (ESPN QBR, QBR, and AY/A) all have him in the top 10.

Now while the offense itself may be run and ball-control-oriented, that doesn't mean that there aren't occasions when the defense might not hold up well and the offense needs to put up points quickly, or that the team might need to do better with it's ball-control and convert some third downs.

Well, in terms of 3rd downs, the team ranks 21st in conversion percentage, which is not good for a ball-control-oriented team.

That's not to say it's all on Alex, as plenty can be put on playcall/other outside forces, but he can take some of it for being constantly too cautious.

And people say that we're not built to come back from a deficit? It's true - Alex is the 18th-rated QB when playing from behind. That's not to say that's all on Alex either, as there are certainly other variables in there.

What it does say, though, is even with Alex having a really good season, he can improve. That's all I want out of him. I want a top QB, because there are times when you need one. If we say the top 4 QBs are without a doubt Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, and Brees, then you have the guys who not only rank in the top 10 in QBR (and the assorted other stats), but they're guys who lead the 1st, 5th, 6th, and 8th ranked offenses on 3rd down. These are the guys, who when losing the game, are ranked 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 5th in QBR. It's not JUST that they put up exciting stats. You take the guys that I think are #5 and #6 this year (Matt Ryan and Matt Schaub), and they're leading the 3rd and 9th ranked 3rd down offenses, and are 4th and 6th when trailing.

Just because Alex is playing really well, doesn't mean he doesn't have some glaring weaknesses at the moment. He HAS been able to bring this team from behind in the past, yes, but not consistently, and not consistently as well as others. If we're not leading, it's not a good sign. Still on third downs - things aren't going very well because sometimes you have to take chances.

If Alex can improve in those two areas, as well as pocket awareness (which who knows how to rank that effectively), I very well think he COULD be a top 5 QB.

Until then, I'll agree he's playing very well, I'll agree it fits our offensive philosophy, but even with those two things - there is still room for improvement. I don't need to see QB A numbers from Alex (as listed above), and in the right scenarios maybe QB B is all that's needed. But in the areas in which he CAN still improve - I'd love to see it.

As it is, without combining some form of every statistic used in this scattered post, I don't think there's a great single statistic to prove how well one QB is doing. I don't think Kaepernick would or will do any better than what Alex has this year, and I've said it since the beginning of the year - I'm not interested in him starting (if Alex is healthy, of course). I like his potential for the future and feel comfortable with his longterm role with the squad if he can take from Harbaugh everything that Alex has.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
I would probably place him in the 8-10 range. He's played extremely well, he's ran our offense, he's been efficient. He has areas he can improve on.


Well, then I think (to my surprise) that we are actually of like mind on this topic.

y2lamanaki wrote:
But if someone says "if you can find an improvement over the 3rd highest rated QB," then that's taking one statistic and assuming that's the be-all end-all of QB ranking.


When I did state this, I didn't state it to be taken so literally. My only meaning was that Alex is doing well and doesn't deserve to be replaced or harshly criticized. Exactly how well has he played? 3rd best in blah blah blah? or 8th best in blah blah blah? That doesn't really interest me much. Just that he is playing well is enough. Can and should he improve in some areas? Oh, for sure. My uncool reactions stem from the years of Alex wars. When I read through some posts, you'd think Alex has been a horrible QB lately, and I just don't understand why some would go out of their way to post things that detract from what he does.

... but that's my problem. Sorry I was such a ____ earlier. I'd say I will change my ways, but at this point in life, I guess I am what I am.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 7:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oldman9er wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
I would probably place him in the 8-10 range. He's played extremely well, he's ran our offense, he's been efficient. He has areas he can improve on.


Well, then I think (to my surprise) that we are actually of like mind on this topic.

y2lamanaki wrote:
But if someone says "if you can find an improvement over the 3rd highest rated QB," then that's taking one statistic and assuming that's the be-all end-all of QB ranking.


When I did state this, I didn't state it to be taken so literally. My only meaning was that Alex is doing well and doesn't deserve to be replaced or harshly criticized. Exactly how well has he played? 3rd best in blah blah blah? or 8th best in blah blah blah? That doesn't really interest me much. Just that he is playing well is enough. Can and should he improve in some areas? Oh, for sure. My uncool reactions stem from the years of Alex wars. When I read through some posts, you'd think Alex has been a horrible QB lately, and I just don't understand why some would go out of their way to post things that detract from what he does.

... but that's my problem. Sorry I was such a ____ earlier. I'd say I will change my ways, but at this point in life, I guess I am what I am.


Sorry for misinterpreting what you posted. It seemed a lot more like 'How can we do better than the guy who's #3' to me, but that's that.

Either way, all of us better be cheering for Kaepernick tonight.
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 19, 2012 8:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:

Either way, all of us better be cheering for Kaepernick tonight.


Absolutely! Typed this out mere minutes ago...



Really hope everyone can avoid being petty and just enjoy the game while giving Ck7 our full support.

Winning >>>>>> player preference

If he has a terrible or remarkable game, it's probably a good idea to not assume every game would go this way. It's just one game... and he's a youngling that can improve greatly over the months/years or he could eventually be figured out and fizzle like others before him have.

Go Ck7 !!! Go NIners !!!!
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 20, 2012 12:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
Continued from here:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?p=15075162#15075162

(moved it here as it will end up about Alex)


big9erfan wrote:
Spoken like a guy who believes QBR is completely meaningless, even though most people accept it, even if somewhat flawed, as the best measure of a QB's overall performance.


Who accepts it as such? ESPN thought it flawed enough to create a whole new formula that they felt was a better indicator of overall QB performance. Advanced stats like expected points added, win probability, and adjusted yards/pass were created to give a better view of who was succeeding. Some people think simple stats like yards/attempt and interception percentage are more important. I haven't heard QBR considered the best in years.

I googled what's the most effective way to judge how good a quarterback is, and this is the first result:

http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=503286

Plus at it's most basic, QBR favors completion percentage which is just goofy. What would you rather - a quarterback who completes 3 straight passes for 9 yards and has to punt? Or a quarterback who completes 1 of 3 passes for 20 yards and a first down?

3 of 3 for 9 yards. (79.2 QBR)

1 of 3 for 20 yards. (57.6 QBR)


Or who had the better game?

17 of 20 for 210 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs (127.1 QBR) sacked 5 times in a loss

29 of 45 for 400 yards, 4 TDs, 1 INT (113.2 QBR) never sacked in a win.

QBR might be an interesting stat, but it's outdated and very flawed (which I recognize you admitted), and again - there are plenty of people who disagree that it's the best measure of a QB's overall performance.


There are certainly plenty of people who think there could be a better measure. Problem is the only ones I've seen are worse than QBR. I certainly wouldn't use ESPN as a source to support this point. Theirs is utterly ridiculous
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