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Patriots Draft Prospects 2013
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's way too soon to render any sort of judgment on Talib. He looked bad against the Colts, but then he was likely not really in game shape yet and new to the defense. He looked good against the Jets, but they're the Jets.
I think we probably won't really know if he's worth keeping around until the final 3 games of the season.
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
1. Terrence Williams
2. Cordarelle patterson
3. Justin Hunter
4. nobody else
Keenan Allen?
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
1. Terrence Williams
2. Cordarelle patterson
3. Justin Hunter
4. nobody else


You realize the Pats offense is just fine and the defense is a dumpster fire..........right?
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
1. Terrence Williams
2. Cordarelle patterson
3. Justin Hunter
4. nobody else


You realize the Pats offense is just fine and the defense is a dumpster fire..........right?
You really have to ask?
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
tonyto3690 wrote:

Garbage time time stats are irrelevant. Yards are also irrelevant. It doesn't matter if you get yards if you throw 3 interceptions and the secondary forces an additional fumble or two.


Yards aren't irrelevant when they're indicative of the quality of the defense. You think allowing 12.2 yards per completion is irrelevant? Sure, you can argue that if they don't end in points, the yards are wasted (i.e. irrelevant). However, those yards still tell a story which is:

The secondary is awful and can't get off the field without the opposing team turning the ball over. Think that's not important as long as you're holding the opponent to field goals? How about continually losing the field position battle because you're letting the other team go 50-60 yards? How about the impact of long drives in keeping the Pats own offense off the field? How about the fact that good teams (the ones the Pats will face in a few weeks and in the playoffs) often are more careful with the ball than the teams that the Pats feast on (in regard to turnovers).

Yards get used incorrectly by people, that doesn't make them irrelevant. Look at the Pats playoff runs lately. They haven't gotten a lot of takeaways and their porous secondary has collapsed in the late stages of many games (almost losing the AFCCG, losing the Super Bowl).

Recovering fumbles is largely luck. We've seen that in both Super Bowls and numerous big games. Good QB's tend not to turn the ball over as much as garbage like Sanchez and Fitzpatrick.

Playing bad teams, you might be able to give up 400 yards and hold the opponent to 25 points (and maybe that's good enough to win). Playing good teams, giving up 400-500 yards is a recipe for a loss.


Quote:
Talib hasnt' shown anything worth resigning? Really? I'm not saying we're going to sign him like he's some superstar big name guy like Tillman, but come on. He is way better than Arrington and way better than anyone else we've tried to bring in/develop/draft besides McCourty.


Talib looked bad vs. Indianapolis and it's tough to gauge against the Jets given their awful WR corps. I will say though that Arrington played well vs Buffalo and was similarly tough to evaluate in the Jets game.

I haven't seen anything to indicate he's actually an improvement or worth re-signing given that he might get a decent offer elsewhere.

Saying he is "way better than anyone else we've tried to bring in" is ridiculous. Hopefully you just mean the current crop of CB's. Even then, he's not "way better" than Dennard.

People want Talib to be good. People think Talib is good because of his play in Tampa Bay. That doesn't mean that the two games he has played have shown him to be a good fit for the team. I admitted that there is time for him to show he belongs, but as of now, calling him a big upgrade over Arrington is a bit much.


Ok, doing to do the rare thing and talk defending behind hyping Chandler...

Corners in our system are difficult to judge, in some cases extremely difficult to judge. McCourtey lucked his way into half his 2010 interceptions, and was named a pro bowler - in 2011, he came crashing down to Earth. Arrington lead the NFL in interceptions last season - enough said. Asante was a ball hawk gambler. We haven't a legit #1, lock down corner since Ty Law left.

As if current passing stats werent enough evidence, There are not many good corners in todays game. Every 'great' corner has plays made on him; be it old man Moss totally embarrassing Revis in 2010 or rookie AJ Green tooling on Jonathan Joseph last year.

Reality is, NAME RECOGNITION does more for a corner back than anything else. If QB's eyed whoever Revis was covering as they would normally, he would give up more yards and catches. Similarly, if a QB decides to treat a CB like a #1 and not test him, that greatly helps said CB. ATM, having a 'good' game at Cornerback right now basically means doing several things:

1. Not getting beat routinely. Getting beat a few times a game is simply a given, but if one can hold his own for most of the game, it is a success. Offenses in general have obvious talent advantages, and will design plays to get certain receivers open which have incredible success rates. A CB losing on these plays is frankly to be expected; any time a corner can hold his own on even some of these plays, it has to be considered a success.

2. Make plays when they come to you. Don't drop picks. Bat balls within vicinity away. This is the #1 way to make QB's begin excluding whatever receiver a CB is covering - make plays when they're there to be made. Make the QB know the throw will have to be perfect.

3. Limit penalties. Pretty simple. Don't commit pass interference penalties.

Do those 3 enough, and QB's will stop throwing the ball the CB's way.

I am not going to say Aqib Talib looked 'good' against Indy. But, in our defense, he did pretty much all that was asked of him. The 1st touchdown he gave up was great coverage and an amazing pass. The 2nd TD, he got beat. But, he also made the pic when it was there (even if it was a gift) and returned it for 6.

I have high expectations, but Talib has done well thus far. Teams will be looking his way less and less as we get going.
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
It's way too soon to render any sort of judgment on Talib. He looked bad against the Colts, but then he was likely not really in game shape yet and new to the defense. He looked good against the Jets, but they're the Jets.
I think we probably won't really know if he's worth keeping around until the final 3 games of the season.


I agree. Even if he is somewhat inconsistent the rest of the year, he still might be a success next season. Few football players change teams midyear and those that do often struggle. It takes time to learn a defensive scheme.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

nextsuperstar wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
It's way too soon to render any sort of judgment on Talib. He looked bad against the Colts, but then he was likely not really in game shape yet and new to the defense. He looked good against the Jets, but they're the Jets.
I think we probably won't really know if he's worth keeping around until the final 3 games of the season.


I agree. Even if he is somewhat inconsistent the rest of the year, he still might be a success next season. Few football players change teams midyear and those that do often struggle. It takes time to learn a defensive scheme.


Problem is, he's unsigned at the end of the year and likely to attract some interest around the league.

He might be a success next year, but would you be willing to see the Pats hand him a moderately large contract on that risk?
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
nextsuperstar wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
It's way too soon to render any sort of judgment on Talib. He looked bad against the Colts, but then he was likely not really in game shape yet and new to the defense. He looked good against the Jets, but they're the Jets.
I think we probably won't really know if he's worth keeping around until the final 3 games of the season.


I agree. Even if he is somewhat inconsistent the rest of the year, he still might be a success next season. Few football players change teams midyear and those that do often struggle. It takes time to learn a defensive scheme.


Problem is, he's unsigned at the end of the year and likely to attract some interest around the league.

He might be a success next year, but would you be willing to see the Pats hand him a moderately large contract on that risk?


The advantage the patriots have is that BB will get a chance to see how Talib fits within the scheme, even if the results are not reflected on the field of play.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
Secondary has seen improvement


???

The secondary was appalling vs. the Bills and Colts. Sure, they looked "better" vs. the Jets insofar as they gave up "only" 301 yards and "only" a 72.2% completion percentage to one of the worst QB's in the NFL - which was, as you said, an improvement over the first game vs. the Jets.

They have one decent safety (McCourty) and one decent under-contract CB (Dennard). Talib hasn't shown anything worth re-signing - though he might come along a bit as he settles in. Arrington is likely gone. Dowling was riding the pine before his injury so can't count on him.

They need to invest heavily in the secondary with free agents and draft picks. Chung and Arrington are likely gone. Ebner, Gregory, Dowling, Cole, Wilson are all unimpressive or outright bad.


I didn't say it was doing well, merely improving - which it is. At this point, I have no idea if its personel, scheme or the coaching. We certainly seem to be playing some sort of bend-don't-break system, that is entireley reliant on turning the ball over. Trouble is we look God-awful when that doesn't happen. At least we're making plays now.

Anyway, do we re-build through the draft again or go FA? We've been unable to fix our secondary problems via the draft forever. Like you say, Talib might not be back - so, we're going to have holes.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

NBT's 2013 wide receiver rankings, diagnosis, and acceptable draft range:

1. Cordarelle Patterson
Percy Harvin at 6'3ish. Just tremendous speed and quickness in all areas of his game. Elite agility, change of direction & short-area quickness for someone of his size. From a pure speed perspective, the most gifted athlete I've watched since Randy Moss. Julio and Calvin have stiff hips & are more awkward out breaks than the fluid Patterson; they also take a few steps to "build up" to speed, while Patterson can cut on a dime, and instantly switch it back into gear. Allowing him to maximize his athleticism is his incredible vision - the combination of these two will make him the leagues most lethal weapon in the open field. His overall receiving skills are more raw than one would like, but the talent is so obvious that it cannot be ignored. The term "threat to score every touch" is overused, but it fits Patterson.

As a rookie, Patterson would instantly take over kick returns and punting duties. He projects in our offense a 40-50 catch kind of guy a rookie, with a very high YPC, and someone who could blossom into an elite, top 3 weapon in the NFL. If he is available at 32, we must take him. In fact, if he drops into the 20s, he is worthy of a trade up.

2. Terrance Williams
More polished than Patterson, and would have a bigger instant impact at the receiver position. Lacks the upside and ability to contribute in other faucets of the game.Lanky 6'2 with very quick feet & excellent top end speed, think Mike Wallace with 4.3 speed instead of 4.2. Could be an excellent deep throat for us from the get go. Not quite a go to guy, but someone who can consistently get behind the defense. If he is available in the 1st, we should take him.

3. Da'rick Rodgers
Intriguing prospect. Not quite as gifted as the other two, but more accomplished. Big bodied, athletic, and physical, he reminds a tad of a current Andre Johnson or even Dwayne Bowe. He plays with an edge, a swagger which could make him a love/hate player here in NE, but is a confidence which can help rookies. Potential go-to #1 wide out as a rookie, but less of a sure thing than the top 2, who have pretty defined roles. if he;s available in the 1st, and the 2 above are gone...i'd take him.

4. Justin Hunter
Basically the exact same breakdown as Williams, but with slower feet and a tendency to drop passes. My top receiver coming in 2012, but his film is all kinds of sloppy. If he is there in the 2nd, I'd take him.

5. Aaron Dobson
Big guy who can explode up field in a straight line. Will make occasional ridiculous catch. Not really a go-to guy type of player, but as a situational deep threat, he could be pretty effective. Good 3rd round value.

6. Robert Woods
He pretty much is Bradon Lloyd/Chad Johnson. So....maybe in the 3rd.

6. Tavarres King
Burner, not much else. I'd take a flyer on hm in the 4th and use him as a situational deep thread; reminds me of Tiquan Underwood who si currently playing pretty well in Tampa Bay
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 01, 2012 2:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vx6pGFvDqt0

This is who we must get. Skills that cannot be taught.
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young juice


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think draft should be like

1st - OL or CB
2nd - OL or CB or DL
3rd - DL or WR

Hopefully we make some trades to get 4th and 5th
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young juice


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

not a college expert at all but from some sites and reading some stuff this isn't a mock at all just maybe some guys I would maybe like with our first few picks.

1st: CB Xavier Rhodes
2nd: OL/OT DJ Fluker
3rd: DT Kwame Geathers

probably is bad but I have plenty of time to do more research

Draft is months away
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

young juice wrote:
not a college expert at all but from some sites and reading some stuff this isn't a mock at all just maybe some guys I would maybe like with our first few picks.

1st: CB Xavier Rhodes
2nd: OL/OT DJ Fluker
3rd: DT Kwame Geathers

probably is bad but I have plenty of time to do more research

Draft is months away


I'd be a little upset if we came away with that. Xavier Rhodes is a specimen, but has lived up to the hype. Fluker has bricks for feet, nice run blocker - but I wouldn't want him protecting Brady's right side. Geather is a nose tackle. I'd prefer a pass-rushing UT to make use of blockers Vince swallows up.
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tonyto3690


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyler Eiffert is expected to be available around our pick.

Draft him, let Welker walk, and sign Goldson/Byrd with that money. Then you have Gronk and Eiffert on the line with Hernandez + Edelman/Lloyd out wide.


JUMBO SPREAD OFFENSE. Plus if Gronk/Hernandez gets dinged up, you can still run the base 2TE set.
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