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Patriots Draft Prospects 2013
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 16, 2012 6:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:


Quote:
I don't know about that. I don't think the Pats say "let's not take a guy who can 'flat out play'"


Yeah, that was probably worded poorly. What I mean is, a guy who just really looks the part you know? Someone who passes the eye ball test - we never seem to covet 'that guy' when it comes to secondary players. I realise I'm talking in generics - but the 'template' of the kind of guy we have been putting out, isn't someone who can jam his man at the line and dominate his opponent. Ras-I aside, there's generally been more preference for a lighter, fleet of foot, quick-witted - high calibre guy.


I think the problem that exists is that we (as fans) see those types of guys succeed elsewhere and the "small fleet of foot" guys fail here and assume that the reason the "small" guys fail and the "big dominating" guy succeeds is based on size.

Revis is 5'10, Finnegan is 5'11, Joseph is 5'11. Webb is 5'11 etc, Samuel 5'10 etc.

The Pats like guys who can flip their hips quickly and can project either outside or inside (the all important versatility). If there has been one real knock on the pre-2010 Pats DB selections (and I'd posit that McCourty and Dowling are both breaks from the previous mold) it is that the CB's tended to be "soft" in style and not aggressive. Not aggressive hitters, not aggressive in their play on the ball. I'd say that they haven't done a good job identifying or prioritizing "instincts". Their CB's have - year after year - been burned on simple fake outs from WR's. The safeties they've drafted have - year after year - have been atrocious on playaction fakes.

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.
I wonder if, given how good the front-7 has been against the run this year, they'll just start instructing at least one of the safeties to just play pass all the way on 1st and 2nd down. It feels like they've gotten to the point where they have to break with conventional tactics to improve in certain areas.
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.


Where they are drafting, they will not be able to get talented players like Claiborne, Haden, or Peterson.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nextsuperstar wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.


Where they are drafting, they will not be able to get talented players like Claiborne, Haden, or Peterson.


Just like the Falcons would never be able to get a talent like Julio Jones (especially when we had a multitude of picks like in 2010)
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nextsuperstar wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.


Where they are drafting, they will not be able to get talented players like Claiborne, Haden, or Peterson.


I appreciate that whilst you miss out on the better prospects - that doesn't mean you can't do your job properly as a talent evaluator, whether Bill truly has the time to dedicate time to that is another question. None of the guys below were out of trading reach for us (for example).

Antonio Cromartie - Pick 19, 1st round
Johnathan Joseph - Pick 24, 1st round
Nnamdi Asomugha - Pick 31, 1st round
Brandon Flowers - pick 35, 2nd round
Charles Tillman, pick 35, 2nd round
Ladarius Webb - pick 88, 3rd round
Cortland Finnegan - pick 215, 7th round
Brent Grimes - UDFA
Tramon Williams - UDFA
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
nextsuperstar wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.


Where they are drafting, they will not be able to get talented players like Claiborne, Haden, or Peterson.


I appreciate that whilst you miss out on the better prospects - that doesn't mean you can't do your job properly as a talent evaluator, whether Bill truly has the time to dedicate time to that is another question. None of the guys below were out of trading reach for us (for example).

Antonio Cromartie - Pick 19, 1st round
Johnathan Joseph - Pick 24, 1st round
Nnamdi Asomugha - Pick 31, 1st round
Brandon Flowers - pick 35, 2nd round
Charles Tillman, pick 35, 2nd round
Ladarius Webb - pick 88, 3rd round
Cortland Finnegan - pick 215, 7th round
Brent Grimes - UDFA
Tramon Williams - UDFA


Obviously there are great CBs drafted outside the top ten just like every other position. Nevertheless, besides Devon McCourty, the Patriots have been unable to find those talented players recently despite dedicating numerous draft picks on the position.

Mcmurty noted there does not seem to be answer to this dilema without drafting a top ten level talent, i.e. someone who is considered NFL ready and unlikely to bust. The problem is players who are well rounded enough, polished enough and talented enough too be drafted in the top ten are, inevitably, drafted in the top ten, and those beyond the reach of the patriots.

Finding players like the ones you listed takes talent in scouting (looking for something others have not seen) and a good deal of luck. Recently the Patriots have had little luck and shown little talent when it comes to selecting DBs (Which is why McMurtey said he didn't "know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.")
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nextsuperstar wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
nextsuperstar wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:

I don't know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.


Where they are drafting, they will not be able to get talented players like Claiborne, Haden, or Peterson.


I appreciate that whilst you miss out on the better prospects - that doesn't mean you can't do your job properly as a talent evaluator, whether Bill truly has the time to dedicate time to that is another question. None of the guys below were out of trading reach for us (for example).

Antonio Cromartie - Pick 19, 1st round
Johnathan Joseph - Pick 24, 1st round
Nnamdi Asomugha - Pick 31, 1st round
Brandon Flowers - pick 35, 2nd round
Charles Tillman, pick 35, 2nd round
Ladarius Webb - pick 88, 3rd round
Cortland Finnegan - pick 215, 7th round
Brent Grimes - UDFA
Tramon Williams - UDFA


Obviously there are great CBs drafted outside the top ten just like every other position. Nevertheless, besides Devon McCourty, the Patriots have been unable to find those talented players recently despite dedicating numerous draft picks on the position.

Mcmurty noted there does not seem to be answer to this dilema without drafting a top ten level talent, i.e. someone who is considered NFL ready and unlikely to bust. The problem is players who are well rounded enough, polished enough and talented enough too be drafted in the top ten are, inevitably, drafted in the top ten, and those beyond the reach of the patriots.

Finding players like the ones you listed takes talent in scouting (looking for something others have not seen) and a good deal of luck. Recently the Patriots have had little luck and shown little talent when it comes to selecting DBs (Which is why McMurtey said he didn't "know how to solve the issue outside of taking a top 10 type talent like Haden or Claiborne.")


Yeah, I guess it's a chicken or egg kind of scenario. Certainly the coaching of DB's has to seriously be brought into question. Why guys look good in College and in their first season regress and seemingly lose their ability to locate the football is a major concern. You have to wonder just what is going on there.

From a talent evaluation point - and I know Ty Law has been banging on about this, is whether BB truly has the time to evaluate prospects fully. Although he has been pleasantly surprising at times (the blown coverage in the Seahawks game not withstanding), the Tavon Wilson pick continues to be a headscratcher. Not a single team, journalist of analyst came out and said they graded Wilson where he went - you can't help but wonder if the homework on his draft value was done on him properly.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 17, 2012 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:

Yeah, I guess it's a chicken or egg kind of scenario. Certainly the coaching of DB's has to seriously be brought into question. Why guys look good in College and in their first season regress and seemingly lose their ability to locate the football is a major concern. You have to wonder just what is going on there.

From a talent evaluation point - and I know Ty Law has been banging on about this, is whether BB truly has the time to evaluate prospects fully. Although he has been pleasantly surprising at times (the blown coverage in the Seahawks game not withstanding), the Tavon Wilson pick continues to be a headscratcher. Not a single team, journalist of analyst came out and said they graded Wilson where he went - you can't help but wonder if the homework on his draft value was done on him properly.


Would you expect a pro front office guy to come out and say "Hey listen! I graded Tavon Wilson as a 2nd rounder too! Get off Bill Belichick's sack!" If so, that's kind of silly - we'll never know what he was "really graded as" and we don't for pretty much every draft pick.

Besides, look at the top five or six guys who got drafted this past season to play safety. Barron, Harrison Smith, then.... Tavon Wilson, Brandon Hardin, Jerron McMillian, Matt Johnson, Christian Thompson? Drastically different from the rankings that the media put out there. I think what it takes to play safety in college is diverging from what it takes in the NFL, so "analysts" are simply out of the loop.

Think finding a 3-4 outside linebacker. It used to be about finding a 4-3 DE who can convert. The analysts didn't get this so they never knew what they were talking about. Now, with the way passing offenses have proliferated at the FBS level, guys come into the pros standing up and playing 3-4 outside linebacker, and everyone knows who is a good fit for the position. I think safety following the opposite trajectory - becoming a conversion position like 3-4 OLB used to be.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 3:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

24isthelaw wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:

Yeah, I guess it's a chicken or egg kind of scenario. Certainly the coaching of DB's has to seriously be brought into question. Why guys look good in College and in their first season regress and seemingly lose their ability to locate the football is a major concern. You have to wonder just what is going on there.

From a talent evaluation point - and I know Ty Law has been banging on about this, is whether BB truly has the time to evaluate prospects fully. Although he has been pleasantly surprising at times (the blown coverage in the Seahawks game not withstanding), the Tavon Wilson pick continues to be a headscratcher. Not a single team, journalist of analyst came out and said they graded Wilson where he went - you can't help but wonder if the homework on his draft value was done on him properly.


Would you expect a pro front office guy to come out and say "Hey listen! I graded Tavon Wilson as a 2nd rounder too! Get off Bill Belichick's sack!" If so, that's kind of silly - we'll never know what he was "really graded as" and we don't for pretty much every draft pick.

Besides, look at the top five or six guys who got drafted this past season to play safety. Barron, Harrison Smith, then.... Tavon Wilson, Brandon Hardin, Jerron McMillian, Matt Johnson, Christian Thompson? Drastically different from the rankings that the media put out there. I think what it takes to play safety in college is diverging from what it takes in the NFL, so "analysts" are simply out of the loop.

Think finding a 3-4 outside linebacker. It used to be about finding a 4-3 DE who can convert. The analysts didn't get this so they never knew what they were talking about. Now, with the way passing offenses have proliferated at the FBS level, guys come into the pros standing up and playing 3-4 outside linebacker, and everyone knows who is a good fit for the position. I think safety following the opposite trajectory - becoming a conversion position like 3-4 OLB used to be.


Whilst I'm not a Mel Kiper guy and fully aware that teams evaluate players differently to those types of fraudulent TV analaysts - actually, I would have expected at least one GM to say they had a high grade on Wilson. That sort of stuff happens all the time - especially when there is a 'shock' pick. Analysts talk to GM's all the time and whilst there is a lot of mis-information thrown around before the draft - there's not the need to be so coy afterwards. The guys from NEPatriotsdraft.com spoke to every single GM after the draft and only one said they had a higher than 4th round grade on Wilson. I'm not saying he's a bad pick - merely that, from what I'm reading - I'm convinced we could have got him later in the draft.

Also, I'd say the weakness of the Safety class dictated as much to what happened on draft day. It was a real tough class to evaluate. Outside of Barron and Smith (who seemed to main beneificiary of a weak class), teams probably had their guy and that was it.

It's only a theory - not saying I buy into 100% (or even half-way), but does Bill really have the time to fully evaluate these players in a way that a fully-fledged GM would? I think that's a fair question.
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Troy Brown


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 4:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would the key to drafting a capable safety be drafting a collegiate corner with the purpose of playing him exclusively at safety?
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 5:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Troy Brown wrote:
Would the key to drafting a capable safety be drafting a collegiate corner with the purpose of playing him exclusively at safety?


A lot of people thought that would happen with Dowling, and if IIRC, didn't Tavon Wilson play a lot of Corner at Illinois/?
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:
Troy Brown wrote:
Would the key to drafting a capable safety be drafting a collegiate corner with the purpose of playing him exclusively at safety?


A lot of people thought that would happen with Dowling, and if IIRC, didn't Tavon Wilson play a lot of Corner at Illinois/?


Wilson did for all 4 years though in his junior and senior year, he played (esp his junior year) he did play the Star and SS spot.
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nextsuperstar


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:

It's only a theory - not saying I buy into 100% (or even half-way), but does Bill really have the time to fully evaluate these players in a way that a fully-fledged GM would? I think that's a fair question.


Maybe it is time to borrow the old baseball term tinstaapp ("There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect") and apply it to DBs. TINSTAADBP-here Is No Such Thing As A Defensive Back Prospect.

Well, the Patriots might be left with only two possible courses of action this offseason. The first is overpay for a good defensive back. The second is do what BB did with TE, RB, and DE recently: Draft multiple players at the position in one draft and hope that at least one turns out to be a good player.
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What about Ezekiel Ansah?

6'5 270lbs.
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Richter


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NinjaZX6R wrote:
What about Ezekiel Ansah?

6'5 270lbs.

Yeah, I mentioned him earlier in the thread.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

nextsuperstar wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:

It's only a theory - not saying I buy into 100% (or even half-way), but does Bill really have the time to fully evaluate these players in a way that a fully-fledged GM would? I think that's a fair question.


Maybe it is time to borrow the old baseball term tinstaapp ("There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect") and apply it to DBs. TINSTAADBP-here Is No Such Thing As A Defensive Back Prospect.

Well, the Patriots might be left with only two possible courses of action this offseason. The first is overpay for a good defensive back. The second is do what BB did with TE, RB, and DE recently: Draft multiple players at the position in one draft and hope that at least one turns out to be a good player.


Let's do both. I think a veteran is a must - someone out there who is going to get others lined up properly. Other than that, we need an interior sub-package pass-rusher. We're not getting anything like a consistent enough pas-rush up front and that'll help secondary play a huge deal. Certainly did for the Texans when Wade Phillips rolled into town.
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