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Patriots Draft Prospects 2013
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Franchising Volmer only if we cant sign him to a long term deal, obviously. Point blank, I do not see how we can let him walk.

As far as Welker is concerned, I would keep Edleman who can help negate the loss of WW. He wont be Welker, but if we combine with a more athletic wide out, the loss will be entirely negated.

Look around the league at how many instant impact receivers there are at the moment. Don't think for a second that the right pick couldn't do well with Tom Brady & all the other guys drawing attention from him. Frankly, Williams is more NFL ready than anybody last season. The Pats coaches would have to screw up pretty big for him to produce as a rookie.

For what it's worth, McDaniels may play a part of it. Brandon Lloyd and Brandon Marshall instantly picked up his system in their 1st years with it in Denver, as did Demaryius Thomas (who tore his achilles early on). Moss, Welker, Stallworth, Gaffney, Caldwell, etc. Chad Jackson really wasn't THAT bad for the minimal time he was healthy in 2006. Taylor Price and Brandon Tate were developed under Bill Obrien.

I don't think McDaniels is that complicated, to be honest. A guy like Terrance Williams would have little trouble producing here early on. In fact he would be our #1 fairly soon.
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Nihc


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NBT,

Got your WR rankings bookmarked. I'm going to (hopefully) check back at the end of next year and see how you did. You're always talking up WRs, so I'm interested to see how well you evaluate them.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nihc wrote:
NBT,

Got your WR rankings bookmarked. I'm going to (hopefully) check back at the end of next year and see how you did. You're always talking up WRs, so I'm interested to see how well you evaluate them.


It really depends on where they get drafted. There is no AJ Green in this draft, so some will de. develop differently than expected. Rueban Randle was my fave last year, and he has shown flashed of being a big time player.

It goes without saying that I view our team as an ideal spot for any talented rookie. Price, Tate and co. do not fit that bill. Chad tore acl's 2 years in a row. So, when I evaluate their talent, ability, and potential, I suspect their production in NE would be on the higher end of their potential. Williams is a guy I like a lot if we let Welker go. He is extremely NFL ready. If we keep Welker, I want Coleman.

But, when you see guys like Mike Wallace, Josh Gordon, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, T.Y. Hilton, Torrey Smith, Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, and countless others all contributing pretty much right away....there is no reason to think the right player cant do that here. What round was Hilton drafted in? Especially in this year, we can find an instant impact receiver in round 2.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YTpFB0dKtQ

Watch this tape. Guy would dominate here from day 1.

The only issue that FA comes before the draft. So we dont do a wr in fa, we better make damn sure we grab one in the draft.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
Nihc wrote:
NBT,

Got your WR rankings bookmarked. I'm going to (hopefully) check back at the end of next year and see how you did. You're always talking up WRs, so I'm interested to see how well you evaluate them.


It really depends on where they get drafted. There is no AJ Green in this draft, so some will de. develop differently than expected. Rueban Randle was my fave last year, and he has shown flashed of being a big time player.

It goes without saying that I view our team as an ideal spot for any talented rookie. Price, Tate and co. do not fit that bill. Chad tore acl's 2 years in a row. So, when I evaluate their talent, ability, and potential, I suspect their production in NE would be on the higher end of their potential. Williams is a guy I like a lot if we let Welker go. He is extremely NFL ready. If we keep Welker, I want Coleman.

But, when you see guys like Mike Wallace, Josh Gordon, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, T.Y. Hilton, Torrey Smith, Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, Dez Bryant, Randall Cobb, Cecil Shorts, Denarius Moore, and countless others all contributing pretty much right away....there is no reason to think the right player cant do that here. What round was Hilton drafted in? Especially in this year, we can find an instant impact receiver in round 2.


There is reason to think the right player can't do that in New England. The offense is damn complicated and Brady expects perfection from his receivers. As much as it might disappoint you, the Pats aren't going to draft a guy in the 1st or 2nd and tell him just to run a 9 route.

And for those success you mention, there are a whole host of duds taken in rounds 1-4 at WR. 2009 yielded Wallace, yes, but the other 2nd-3rd round WR's were awful: Brian Robiskie, Mo Massaquoi, Derrick Williams, Brandon Tate, Patrick Turner, Deon Butler, Juaquin Iglesias.

2008 yielded Jordy Nelson and DeSean Jackson in the 2nd and Mario Manningham in the 3rd. But also had Donnie Avery (not worth an early 2nd rounder), Devin Thomas, James Hardy, Eddie Royal (not terrible), Jerome Simpson, Malcolm Kelly, Limas Sweed, Dexter Jackson, Earl Bennett, Early Doucet, Harry Douglas, and Andre Caldwell. Now. some of those guys aren't bad and are useful to some degree but they're not guys you make a focal part of the offense.

2007 was even worse for 2nd-3rd round WR's: Sidney Rice, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith (NYG), Jacoby Jones, Yamon Figurs, Laurent Robinson, Jason Hill, Jason Jones, Mike Sims-Walker, Paul Williams, Johnnie Lee Higgins

Finding a good WR in the draft is really hard which is why the few young WR's who make it (the guys you listed) are so special. It's easy to sit there and say "NBT knows everything about WR's, any of these top 10 WR's will work" but history tells us that probably 6 of those 10 are going to be failures or mediocrities (which is a failure for a top pick).
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YTpFB0dKtQ

Watch this tape. Guy would dominate here from day 1.

The only issue that FA comes before the draft. So we dont do a wr in fa, we better make damn sure we grab one in the draft.


The odds of the Pats going into the draft without a veteran WR (Welker or a Welker replacement) is nil.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The success of almost all of those guys depends on the situation, though. This year is also a much better year tan any of those. 2008 was especially awful

The Patriots are indeed looking for a specific player. All of those top 10 guys can run every route. They will need to be taught to read the coverages to know what to run, but that is on the coaches.

Frankly, if Hernandez can do it, all of those guys can do it.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YTpFB0dKtQ

Watch this tape. Guy would dominate here from day 1.

The only issue that FA comes before the draft. So we dont do a wr in fa, we better make damn sure we grab one in the draft.


The odds of the Pats going into the draft without a veteran WR (Welker or a Welker replacement) is nil.


Edleman is a veteran who can run all of Welkers routes. Lloyd is a veteran receiver. I wont be upset if we sign somebody to play the position, I just think the money would better spent on volmer, talib, and a safety.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
NextBigThing wrote:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YTpFB0dKtQ

Watch this tape. Guy would dominate here from day 1.

The only issue that FA comes before the draft. So we dont do a wr in fa, we better make damn sure we grab one in the draft.


The odds of the Pats going into the draft without a veteran WR (Welker or a Welker replacement) is nil.


Edleman is a veteran who can run all of Welkers routes. Lloyd is a veteran receiver. I wont be upset if we sign somebody to play the position, I just think the money would better spent on volmer, talib, and a safety.


Edelman is a veteran who can't stay healthy (and the idea of him being the #1 is depressing) and Lloyd is the #2. There has to be a viable receiver atop the depth chart going into the draft. What happens if, on draft day, the Pats miss out on the WR's who they like? Or if they're sitting there at pick #64 in your scenario and there is an irresistible trade offer or a non-WR prospect?

Belichick has never boxed himself in like that with his most valuable positions and after the 2006 debacle with Branch/Caldwell etc I don't think he's going to do it with WR. Either Welker is retained (or franchise tagged) or a quality WR is coming in pre-draft.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Jan 01, 2013 11:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
The success of almost all of those guys depends on the situation, though. This year is also a much better year tan any of those. 2008 was especially awful

The Patriots are indeed looking for a specific player. All of those top 10 guys can run every route. They will need to be taught to read the coverages to know what to run, but that is on the coaches.

Frankly, if Hernandez can do it, all of those guys can do it.


This is just wrong on every level. Yes, success can be dependent upon the situation but good players are going to succeed or show flashes of talent even in bad situations.

And to say all of those 10 guys can "run every route" is just nuts. There's no way every one of those guys can run the entire route tree at an NFL level. That's pure fantasy.

As for "that is on the coaches" - the same coaches who have failed to get many veteran and young WR's on the same page as Brady? You think it's that easy just because these are the shiny new objects of your desire? No, it doesn't work that way.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Edelman is a veteran who can't stay healthy (and the idea of him being the #1 is depressing) and Lloyd is the #2. There has to be a viable receiver atop the depth chart going into the draft. What happens if, on draft day, the Pats miss out on the WR's who they like? Or if they're sitting there at pick #64 in your scenario and there is an irresistible trade offer or a non-WR prospect?

Belichick has never boxed himself in like that with his most valuable positions and after the 2006 debacle with Branch/Caldwell etc I don't think he's going to do it with WR. Either Welker is retained (or franchise tagged) or a quality WR is coming in pre-draft.


Well, lets be fair. Belichick clearly went into the 2008 season knowing we had a poor secondary. He went into 2009 knowing we had poor pass rush. Before you BB never backs himself into those positions, those are two examples. He let Asante walk & 'solved' it be signing Dhelta Oneill. He traded Seymour after FA and the draft, but openly let the Pats enter the season without a top defensive end. Everybody viewed those spots as weakness and yet both took several season to seriously address. To be totally honest with you, it would not surprise if Welker leaves and BB doesn't do anything overly large to address the receiver position. I mean that too.

I see it this way: we will sign a free agent receiver - including Welker - if the price is right. If it isn't right, it won't happen. At which point, we will enter the draft. It is the same reason we went 2008 and 2009 with pathetic incompetence at cornerback. I cannot imagine the patriots paying the type of money most of the free agents receivers will command. Not with Volmer, Talib, and Edleman all needing to be paid this off season too.

Quote:

This is just wrong on every level. Yes, success can be dependent upon the situation but good players are going to succeed or show flashes of talent even in bad situations.


And how many of those guys literally showed nothing in their careers? A few perhaps, but even Johnny Lee Higgins made some plays for that dreadful Raiders team.

Obviously not a big part of an offense, but none of those guys are on the level of any of my top 10 either. Any analysis you will read will say this draft class for wr's is exceptionally deep.

Quote:
And to say all of those 10 guys can "run every route" is just nuts. There's no way every one of those guys can run the entire route tree at an NFL level. That's pure fantasy.


Williams, Woods, and several others can run the full route tree as well as a college player can run it. Williams is an exceptionally polished prospect. 100 catches and 1800 yards in 11 games shows it.

Call whatever you wish fantasy. Every single one of those guys is capable of contributing in a large fashion on this team. If guys like Shorts and Blackmon can do it on the Jaguars, our offense can find ways to utilize their skills, because they have plenty of them.

Quote:
As for "that is on the coaches" - the same coaches who have failed to get many veteran and young WR's on the same page as Brady? You think it's that easy just because these are the shiny new objects of your desire? No, it doesn't work that way.


Who did who? Bill Obrien tried and failed with Galloway, Holt, Ochocinco, Price, and Tate. He found success with Moss and Welker, who inherited. He found success with Branch, who had been here before. He found success with Gronkowski and Hernandez, who he drafted.

Josh McDaniels only failure, as far as I know, is Chad Jackson. And Chad showed flashes of talent but tore his acl twice. Bradon Lloyd, Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Jabar Gaffney, Donte Stallworth, Reche Caldwell - they all played pretty much to their abilities under him.

Not saying a rookie is assured success under McD, but most of the high profile busts here were under a different oc.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 3:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Richter wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Richter wrote:
If Chung is a key guy, the Pats are in more trouble than I thought...


He's a key guy insofar as it's a hole that needs to be filled and finding even a mediocre safety is difficult (both in general and in New England). He's not good, but he's known mediocrity (or a little worse). I'm still not convinced they'll find an upgrade anywhere unless they want to invest big bucks in a free agent. How many draft picks are likely enough to be better than Chung/Gregory/Wilson to be worth pulling the trigger on? Probably nobody outside of the top 50 picks in this draft.

I like this safety class compared to last year's, and Vaccaro, Jefferson and some of the bigger corner prospects could all end up being considerable upgrades. Or they could look at the free agent class, though that seems less likely.


This Safety class is the deepest in recent memory. I don't think there's a question someone falls to us in the 2nd round who would conceivably be an upgrade on what we have. Tony Jefferson can man both spots and is a real physical presence despite his 5'11 stature. There's a couple of fast, physical Strong Safeties a few have been talking about in Phillip Thomas from Fresno State and Duke Williams from Nevada who are worth a close look.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
Richter wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Richter wrote:
If Chung is a key guy, the Pats are in more trouble than I thought...


He's a key guy insofar as it's a hole that needs to be filled and finding even a mediocre safety is difficult (both in general and in New England). He's not good, but he's known mediocrity (or a little worse). I'm still not convinced they'll find an upgrade anywhere unless they want to invest big bucks in a free agent. How many draft picks are likely enough to be better than Chung/Gregory/Wilson to be worth pulling the trigger on? Probably nobody outside of the top 50 picks in this draft.

I like this safety class compared to last year's, and Vaccaro, Jefferson and some of the bigger corner prospects could all end up being considerable upgrades. Or they could look at the free agent class, though that seems less likely.


This Safety class is the deepest in recent memory. I don't think there's a question someone falls to us in the 2nd round who would conceivably be an upgrade on what we have. Tony Jefferson can man both spots and is a real physical presence despite his 5'11 stature. There's a couple of fast, physical Strong Safeties a few have been talking about in Phillip Thomas from Fresno State and Duke Williams from Nevada who are worth a close look.


Or we can just scoop up John Boyett in the late rounds, who's gonna be the best one.
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TGShabba


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd love to see us bring Jennings in if we can't work something out/don't tag Welker. Unfortunately that only happens if he's willing to take a low-ball offer for a solid shot at another ring.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TGShabba wrote:
I'd love to see us bring Jennings in if we can't work something out/don't tag Welker. Unfortunately that only happens if he's willing to take a low-ball offer for a solid shot at another ring.


If he's willing to take a paycut to chase a ring, why would he leave GB?
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