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early43


Joined: 06 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JTagg7754 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'll settle this debate. KC is desperate for a QB. They have Houston and Hali, they won't draft Jones.

Jones and Oakland are a good fit. He's a versatile LB. Quick first step as a pass rusher and a stud against the run as well. He's the type you build around.

That is to say, I don't think KC finish worse that Oakland. They have some talent to win games. Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee are my top 3 picks. Buffalo may make some noise too.


I'd be happy with Jones, as he would fill two huge needs: LB and pass rusher. Honestly, I'll be happy with him, a QB, or a stud DE in the first. The only good thing about having so many holes and a high draft pick is that we will have a lot of options.


Pretty much how I feel. There are so many holes, just land a player who can have an early impact and be a franchise staple and I'm happy.


I agree w/ this although I'd like it to be a player who is a factor on almost every play. unfortunately that just leaves linemen and LBs and QBs for the most part. If there's that exception, once in a decade player (ie Luck, Calvin Johnson etc), grab him.


If we're talking once in a decade type player, what do you think of the DT from Utah? Had a lot of hype coming into the season, and I only watch the game against USC but he looked dominant from what I saw. Been compared to Ngata.
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TiberiusRising


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

early43 wrote:
JTagg7754 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'll settle this debate. KC is desperate for a QB. They have Houston and Hali, they won't draft Jones.

Jones and Oakland are a good fit. He's a versatile LB. Quick first step as a pass rusher and a stud against the run as well. He's the type you build around.

That is to say, I don't think KC finish worse that Oakland. They have some talent to win games. Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee are my top 3 picks. Buffalo may make some noise too.


I'd be happy with Jones, as he would fill two huge needs: LB and pass rusher. Honestly, I'll be happy with him, a QB, or a stud DE in the first. The only good thing about having so many holes and a high draft pick is that we will have a lot of options.


Pretty much how I feel. There are so many holes, just land a player who can have an early impact and be a franchise staple and I'm happy.


I agree w/ this although I'd like it to be a player who is a factor on almost every play. unfortunately that just leaves linemen and LBs and QBs for the most part. If there's that exception, once in a decade player (ie Luck, Calvin Johnson etc), grab him.


If we're talking once in a decade type player, what do you think of the DT from Utah? Had a lot of hype coming into the season, and I only watch the game against USC but he looked dominant from what I saw. Been compared to Ngata.

He is good however there are a lot of big DT's with talent this year. None are once in a decade. In fact I dont see any players that have emerged as once in a decade yet.
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ZoomWaffle


Joined: 25 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TiberiusRising wrote:
early43 wrote:
JTagg7754 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'll settle this debate. KC is desperate for a QB. They have Houston and Hali, they won't draft Jones.

Jones and Oakland are a good fit. He's a versatile LB. Quick first step as a pass rusher and a stud against the run as well. He's the type you build around.

That is to say, I don't think KC finish worse that Oakland. They have some talent to win games. Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee are my top 3 picks. Buffalo may make some noise too.


I'd be happy with Jones, as he would fill two huge needs: LB and pass rusher. Honestly, I'll be happy with him, a QB, or a stud DE in the first. The only good thing about having so many holes and a high draft pick is that we will have a lot of options.


Pretty much how I feel. There are so many holes, just land a player who can have an early impact and be a franchise staple and I'm happy.


I agree w/ this although I'd like it to be a player who is a factor on almost every play. unfortunately that just leaves linemen and LBs and QBs for the most part. If there's that exception, once in a decade player (ie Luck, Calvin Johnson etc), grab him.


If we're talking once in a decade type player, what do you think of the DT from Utah? Had a lot of hype coming into the season, and I only watch the game against USC but he looked dominant from what I saw. Been compared to Ngata.

He is good however there are a lot of big DT's with talent this year. None are once in a decade. In fact I dont see any players that have emerged as once in a decade yet.


+1

Theres not one in every draft, hence the term.
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Baggabonez


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:

True. I was thrilled when we traded for him, god was I wrong. I'm a big fan of Trufant. I really dont know if I want a CB in the 1st though. I just have a feeling he will be taken out of the game like Aso was if he turns out to be good. I want a DE or QB- someone who can make an impact. Now, if we get a solid 2nd CB to pair him with, then it would be a different story because QBs wouldnt be able to simply avoid one side of the field and pick on the 2nd CB.




PPPLLLEEAASSE.......


For the love of everything that is good and holy do not attempt to make the argument that an elite CB can be taken out of the game by simply not throwing at him. Because for the umpteen time . . ..
wait for it . . . .
wait for it . . .
There is VALUE in shrinking the opponents field of play & increasing the odds of where a QB will go because you know where he won't go. This ridiculous argument drove me nutso when Aso walked.

Using this analogy:
I was going to put security bars on the back of my house but ultimately the thieves would just come through the front so there's no value in it.
We abandon running up the middle to take Ngata out of the game . . . but you're saying there's no value in that.
We had our QB roll away from Peppers to take him out of the game . . .but there's no value in that?

You can't be picked on in the NFL. You just suck. You can't hide weaknesses by suggesting you're weak all over.

JTagg, part of Sabermetrics assesses how much money you have tied up in positions that actually effect the outcome of games. The rookie salary cap has changed the paradigm of how you can approach the draft and significantly lowered this threshold. LOL. CHEESE & RICE imagine if a rookie CB could come in and shut down his side of the field absent a pass rush! (yet there's no value in that???)

JTagg, please, please, please don't embellish a flawed philosophy simply because it adds to your argument of not taking a CB 1st. If CBs can be completely taken out of the game then why has the 63 front with 2 high safeties not become a staple in the NFL? Just all out blitz every down and QB will only have time to throw the hot route, which the safeties can clean up.

Given the rules, once the Raiders eventually establish a pass rush the Raiders will STILL require a plethora of quality CBs to compliment. It's not the most cost efficient defense but there is such a thing as coverage sacks.
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 6:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Baggabonez wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

True. I was thrilled when we traded for him, god was I wrong. I'm a big fan of Trufant. I really dont know if I want a CB in the 1st though. I just have a feeling he will be taken out of the game like Aso was if he turns out to be good. I want a DE or QB- someone who can make an impact. Now, if we get a solid 2nd CB to pair him with, then it would be a different story because QBs wouldnt be able to simply avoid one side of the field and pick on the 2nd CB.




PPPLLLEEAASSE.......


For the love of everything that is good and holy do not attempt to make the argument that an elite CB can be taken out of the game by simply not throwing at him. Because for the umpteen time . . ..
wait for it . . . .
wait for it . . .
There is VALUE in shrinking the opponents field of play & increasing the odds of where a QB will go because you know where he won't go. This ridiculous argument drove me nutso when Aso walked.

Using this analogy:
I was going to put security bars on the back of my house but ultimately the thieves would just come through the front so there's no value in it.
We abandon running up the middle to take Ngata out of the game . . . but you're saying there's no value in that.
We had our QB roll away from Peppers to take him out of the game . . .but there's no value in that?

You can't be picked on in the NFL. You just suck. You can't hide weaknesses by suggesting you're weak all over.


Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here? He was as shutdown as it gets, but our pass numbers havent changed, here is our completion %, yards per attempt, and QB Rating allowed in the last 4 years:

2008- 56% 7.2 YPA QB rate 79 (Aso)
2009- 53% 8.1 YPA QB rate 89 (Aso)
2010- 53% 7.1 YPA QB rate 85 (Aso)
2011- 53 % 7.1 YPA QB rate 81 (No Aso)

In the first year w/o a stud CB nothing changed. So, then, how is it that last year with Routt, Chris Johnson, and Lito Sheppard we played the pass just as well (or bad) as we did when we had Aso back there?

In theory, taking away half the field is great, but not when the guys covering the other players are terrible. If taking away half the field would work so well, then why did we give up the same numbers when Aso was locking down his side as we did when we had Lito Sheppard and Stanford Routt starting? Now, maybe if the top CB were to stay on the #1 WR all game, but they never did that. And even if they did, we've seen too many times where its not even the #1 doing the damage- a lot of times its the #2's, the slot guys, the TEs or the RBs in the backfield.

We were no better against the pass with a great CB that we were last year with mostly junk back there. The only difference is total yards allowed and that can be 100% attributed to the fact that teams threw on us more last year, and thats why I went with completion % and YPA because volume doesnt change those stats. You know why they threw on us less prior to 2011? Because we sucked so bad at stopping the run that teams knew they could run at will and they knew there was a good CB back there. So yea, he shut down one side of the field and what happened? They threw to the other side and/or ran the ball. They exploited the other weaknesses.

I'm not syaing we dont need good cover CBs. Of course we do. But I think a decent run D and a couple good pass rushers would affect the entire D a whole lot more than good CBs would.

Same thing happened in AZ when they drafted Patrick Peterson:

2009- 58% 5.9 YPA (No PP)
2010- 60% 6.5 YPA (PP)
2011- 58% 6 YPA (PP)

Their interceptions decreased each year, too. From 21 the year prior to Peterson coming, to 17, to 10. Obviously locking down one side of the field, or one WR, is a good thing, but whats the real value when it doesnt change the big picture. He locked down one guy per game, but opponents were able to pass just as well as they had before, just to other targets. Having a shutdown CB is valuable, but when there isnt a respectable guy across the field doing his job, the value is severely decreased.

Just looking at Chap Bailey's first year in Denver- same story. I'm not gonna post even more numbers but it proves the point.

The top 3 defenses in 2011 in terms of completion % allowed were Houston, Baltimore and us. YPA? Pittsburgh, Houston, and Baltimore. QB rating? Baltimore, Houston and NYJ. Those teams rely on pass rush. The Jets were the only ones with a star CB, but they had a good CB opposite Revis. Coencidence?

Pass rush > CBs
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Last edited by ZoomWaffle on Tue Oct 09, 2012 6:54 pm; edited 1 time in total
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:

How creative can you be with your starting FS playing CB, no depth, no pass rushers, a liability MLB and 2 old DTs not getting any push?

Need talent to be creative. These guys can't even cover basic routes or get to the QB in any situation.


Lacking pure talent doesn't mean you lack the smart to execute a more complex scheme, one who would somewhat confuse opposing offenses. In case you didn't notice, we're not confusing anyone. Our defense isn't at the point where our lack of talent allows opposing offenses to breakthrough on occasions, it's at the point where it never stops anyone. That's a huge difference, one that falls on the coaching staff as well as the players.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:

Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here?


The Raiders are a terrible example. They never used a dfiferent scheme to take advantage of their elite CB. They never rolled coverage opposite of him. They just left their FS right in the middle and let the other CB handle his WR one on one. They didn't even match him up with the opponent #1 WR (note that most teams play sides with their CBs but most teams don't have an Aso).
The Jets, for example, did and they got results from it.
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CaliforniaKid7


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here?


The Raiders are a terrible example. They never used a dfiferent scheme to take advantage of their elite CB. They never rolled coverage opposite of him. They just left their FS right in the middle and let the other CB handle his WR one on one. They didn't even match him up with the opponent #1 WR (note that most teams play sides with their CBs but most teams don't have an Aso).
The Jets, for example, did and they got results from it.


This, Aso was terrible under utilized here. We didnt have him mirror other teams number one or anything. He was just there. He did shut down whatever and whoever he was guarding though.
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Baggabonez


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ZoomWaffle wrote:
EDITED: for length

Pass rush > CBs


You are comparing the play of a unit which is affected by numerous variables v. the play of an individual. When a CB shuts his side of the field down his value is intrinsic. Just because his play doesn't produce tangible stats he wasn't easily "taken out of the game". Similar to the way a true NT doesn't produce tangible stats yet he makes everyone around him better if he does his job correctly.

That being said pass rush is always greater than CBs. However, what do you do when there isn't an edge rusher available? Reach on an edge rusher and pass on a transcendent player at CB? Stats are just a tool and rule of thumb is just a guideline. There are exceptions to the rule.

I'll try to make a better argument tomorrow as my wino alter ego has taken over.
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JTagg7754


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

early43 wrote:
JTagg7754 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:
big_palooka wrote:
I'll settle this debate. KC is desperate for a QB. They have Houston and Hali, they won't draft Jones.

Jones and Oakland are a good fit. He's a versatile LB. Quick first step as a pass rusher and a stud against the run as well. He's the type you build around.

That is to say, I don't think KC finish worse that Oakland. They have some talent to win games. Oakland, Jacksonville and Tennessee are my top 3 picks. Buffalo may make some noise too.


I'd be happy with Jones, as he would fill two huge needs: LB and pass rusher. Honestly, I'll be happy with him, a QB, or a stud DE in the first. The only good thing about having so many holes and a high draft pick is that we will have a lot of options.


Pretty much how I feel. There are so many holes, just land a player who can have an early impact and be a franchise staple and I'm happy.


I agree w/ this although I'd like it to be a player who is a factor on almost every play. unfortunately that just leaves linemen and LBs and QBs for the most part. If there's that exception, once in a decade player (ie Luck, Calvin Johnson etc), grab him.


If we're talking once in a decade type player, what do you think of the DT from Utah? Had a lot of hype coming into the season, and I only watch the game against USC but he looked dominant from what I saw. Been compared to Ngata.


Star is a great player but I don't think he fits that description. I don't think anyone does coming out this season. This isn't to say no one will turn out to be one of the best but no one is standing out like that right now.
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JTagg7754


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To add what Zoom has already brought up, I'll use my Jets example again. Revis is the best CB in the league and that defense didnt' miss a beat against a potent offense. If the league voted top 5 most important player goes down, you would think there'd be a fallback, right? There didn't seem to be here. In fact, they played great.

Bagga, you're correct in the rookie cap not making it as ridiculous w/ money tied up but still, in the position we're likely to be picking, I want THE MOST out of my prospect. I don't want a guy who is maybe only a factor is 50% of the plays (running plays, QBs not even looking at him etc) I want a guy who is a factor every, single, play. That is getting the most out of our investment and the pick that we had.

I cannot find any reason why a CB should be taken in the first round. Ever.
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big_palooka


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
big_palooka wrote:

How creative can you be with your starting FS playing CB, no depth, no pass rushers, a liability MLB and 2 old DTs not getting any push?

Need talent to be creative. These guys can't even cover basic routes or get to the QB in any situation.


Lacking pure talent doesn't mean you lack the smart to execute a more complex scheme, one who would somewhat confuse opposing offenses. In case you didn't notice, we're not confusing anyone. Our defense isn't at the point where our lack of talent allows opposing offenses to breakthrough on occasions, it's at the point where it never stops anyone. That's a huge difference, one that falls on the coaching staff as well as the players.


I disagree. When you don't have decent CBs who are not immediately beaten, it's hard to execute much of anything. QBs are completing 70%+ passes. Hard to confuse them when they are playing pitch and catch with each other.

I've see a number of plays where Tarver dropped an end into coverage expecting a slat or dig. Didn't matter as the DB was beaten and the pass was out almost instantly.

I'd like to hear an example of what creativity you expect to see. They are blitzing, stunting, helping in coverage, etc. But it's all for nothing because they lack talented players who can get pressure the QB or cover receiver.
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ZoomWaffle


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

oakdb36 wrote:
ZoomWaffle wrote:

Then why has nothing changed from when Aso was here?


The Raiders are a terrible example. They never used a dfiferent scheme to take advantage of their elite CB. They never rolled coverage opposite of him. They just left their FS right in the middle and let the other CB handle his WR one on one. They didn't even match him up with the opponent #1 WR (note that most teams play sides with their CBs but most teams don't have an Aso).
The Jets, for example, did and they got results from it.


I realize this, and thats why I made mention of it in my post. Obviously, you want your top CB on the top WR all game to limit his impact. However, look at the game logs from the past couple seasons- it was most often the #2 or slot WRs, TEs or RBs that did the most damage in the pass game. Even if the #1 was completely taken out, it seemed like we always gave up 80+ yards to a guy who has never cracked 500 in a season. Even if the top WR is locked down, you NEED someone who can at least hold their own on the other side. If I'm a QB and my top guy is covered by the best CB in the league, why throw to him when I can go after their other CB, who is awful? Thats what QBs do, they exploit your weaknesses.
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oakdb36


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

big_palooka wrote:

I'd like to hear an example of what creativity you expect to see. They are blitzing, stunting, helping in coverage, etc. But it's all for nothing because they lack talented players who can get pressure the QB or cover receiver.


When you're gonna have CBs play 10 yards off on every play maybe you could compensate for the wide open WRs underneath with sending LBs or safeties to cover the flat which has been picked on regularly.

Our CBs are beaten before the play begins with the cushion they give. It's like we're playing cover 3 or 4 on every down. I understand why we're doing it but it will never work unless there's coverage underneath. Opposing offenses are happy to throw bubble screens, quick slants or outs all day since we're leaving the zone empty. At the moment, we could have the best pass rusher in the league and it wouldn't make a difference since the QB has an open man the moment the ball is snapped.
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TiberiusRising


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 10, 2012 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We dont need shutdown corners. We just need good corners. I like the mix they got in SEA. Its unfortunate that Bartell and Spencer got injured.
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