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justo's close games are lucky thread
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Buffalo (41.25) New England (101.32) 60.07
Kansas City (16.94) Pittsburgh (63.97) 47.03
Denver (107.29) Carolina (74.80) 32.49
Dallas (71.73) Philadelphia (42.90) 28.83
New York Giants (76.98) Cincinnati (49.77) 27.21
St. Louis (64.32) San Francisco (85.95) 21.63
San Diego (44.90) Tampa Bay (66.10) 21.20
New York Jets (64.83) Seattle (84.60) 19.77
Indianapolis (41.38) Jacksonville (27.38) 14.00
Chicago (72.96) Houston (87.78) 14.82
Tennessee (47.75) Miami (60.47) 12.72
Oakland (44.48) Baltimore (56.10) 11.62
Detroit (55.03) Minnesota (47.79) 7.24
Atlanta (65.67) New Orleans (66.20) 0.53


9-3-1?
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

31-8-1 in the past three weeks. 79.26% success rate at predicting games. Most of the 8 "lost" games were close games. I'll update everything after the MNF game. I could crunch in the numbers assuming Pittsburgh wins big though...I hate that these numbers are live. I wish I could just crank them all out at once instead of doing them by sets of games at a time. It's not much of a change but in games like the ATL/NO ones they matter and the "confidence" matters too I guess.
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MathMan


Joined: 10 Oct 2007
Posts: 20296
Location: wisconsin
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
31-8-1 in the past three weeks. 79.26% success rate at predicting games. Most of the 8 "lost" games were close games. I'll update everything after the MNF game. I could crunch in the numbers assuming Pittsburgh wins big though...I hate that these numbers are live. I wish I could just crank them all out at once instead of doing them by sets of games at a time. It's not much of a change but in games like the ATL/NO ones they matter and the "confidence" matters too I guess.


your close wins and losses should be eliminated as well.

Only your W and L above what is it, 8 points, should be counted in your personal records.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MathMan wrote:
justo wrote:
31-8-1 in the past three weeks. 79.26% success rate at predicting games. Most of the 8 "lost" games were close games. I'll update everything after the MNF game. I could crunch in the numbers assuming Pittsburgh wins big though...I hate that these numbers are live. I wish I could just crank them all out at once instead of doing them by sets of games at a time. It's not much of a change but in games like the ATL/NO ones they matter and the "confidence" matters too I guess.


your close wins and losses should be eliminated as well.

Only your W and L above what is it, 8 points, should be counted in your personal records.


I can do that. I'll do that tonight. Would help me in the long run. Like all of the losses the first two weeks were close games. I feel like that might not totally tell the story though. I think it should probably be a mix of both, you know? I don't know why I think this, I just do.
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MathMan


Joined: 10 Oct 2007
Posts: 20296
Location: wisconsin
PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
MathMan wrote:
justo wrote:
31-8-1 in the past three weeks. 79.26% success rate at predicting games. Most of the 8 "lost" games were close games. I'll update everything after the MNF game. I could crunch in the numbers assuming Pittsburgh wins big though...I hate that these numbers are live. I wish I could just crank them all out at once instead of doing them by sets of games at a time. It's not much of a change but in games like the ATL/NO ones they matter and the "confidence" matters too I guess.


your close wins and losses should be eliminated as well.

Only your W and L above what is it, 8 points, should be counted in your personal records.


I can do that. I'll do that tonight. Would help me in the long run. Like all of the losses the first two weeks were close games. I feel like that might not totally tell the story though. I think it should probably be a mix of both, you know? I don't know why I think this, I just do.


i agree to keep both metrics, but the added 2nd metric would add relevance
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 12, 2012 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Predictions: Decisive Games vs Close Games
Week: Total Record (Decisive Record) (Close Game Record)
Week 6: 8-8 (4-3) (4-5)
Week 7: 7-6 (2-0) (5-6)
Week 8: 11-3 (7-2) (4-1)
Week 9: 12-2 (9-0) (3-2)
Week 10 9-3-1 (6-3) (3-0-1)
Total: 47-22-1 (28-8) (19-14-1)
Total: 67.86% (77.78%) (57.35%)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Buffalo (41.25) New England (101.32) 60.07
Kansas City (16.94) Pittsburgh (63.97) 47.03
Denver (107.29) Carolina (74.80) 32.49
Dallas (71.73) Philadelphia (42.90) 28.83
New York Giants (76.98) Cincinnati (49.77) 27.21
St. Louis (64.32) San Francisco (85.95) 21.63
San Diego (44.90) Tampa Bay (66.10) 21.20
New York Jets (64.83) Seattle (84.60) 19.77
Indianapolis (41.38) Jacksonville (27.38) 14.00
Chicago (72.96) Houston (87.78) 14.82
Tennessee (47.75) Miami (60.47) 12.72
Oakland (44.48) Baltimore (56.10) 11.62
Detroit (55.03) Minnesota (47.79) 7.24
Atlanta (65.67) New Orleans (66.20) 0.53


10-3-1?
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 1:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adjusted Win Rate (what a teams average win % would be in a an average year)
77.77 Green Bay
72.22 Chicago, Denver, Houston, New England, Tampa Bay
70.00 New York Giants
66.66 Atlanta
65.00 Seattle
61.11 Baltimore
55.55 Pittsburgh
50.00 Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, Minnesota, New Orleans, Washington
44.44 Dallas, Indianapolis
38.88 Arizona, Carolina, Cleveland, New York Jets, St. Louis, Buffalo
33.33 Oakland
30.00 Tennessee
27.77 Philadelphia
16.66 Jacksonville, Kansas City

Opponent Adjusted SOS
1) 31.10 Carolina
2) 29.34 St. Louis
3) 28.82 Dallas
4) 27.15 San Francisco
5) 26.88 Seattle
6) 26.83 New York Jets
7) 26.81 Denver
8-9) 26.72 Arizona, Washington
10) 26.52 New England
11) 26.29 New Orleans
12) 26.24 Jacksonville
13) 25.90 Tennessee
14) 25.62 Green Bay
15) 25.45 Buffalo
16) 25.43 Philadelphia
17) 25.14 Kansas City
18) 25.13 Houston
19) 25.12 New York Giants
20) 24.61 Cincinnati
21) 24.52 Cleveland
22) 24.20 Chicago
23) 23.60 Oakland
24) 23.33 Tampa Bay
25) 23.30 Minnesota
26) 23.00 Baltimore
27) 22.98 Atlanta
28) 22.93 Detroit
29) 22.71 Pittsburgh
30) 22.45 Miami
31) 22.01 San Diego
32) 21.58 Indianapolis

SOS Adjusted Win Rate 2
1) 105.19 Denver
2) 100.51 Green Bay
3) 98.97 New England
4) 93.35 Houston
5) 88.34 Seattle
6) 84.04 New York Giants
7) 80.37 San Francisco
8) 80.27 Chicago
9) 77.43 Dallas
10) 75.63 Carolina
11) 75.53 Tampa Bay
12) 73.09 Washington
13) 68.98 New Orleans
14) 67.41 St. Louis
15) 65.26 Atlanta
16) 61.99 Cincinnati
17) 61.61 Baltimore
18) 58.42 New York Jets
19) 55.08 Minnesota
20) 54.98 Arizona
21) 54.54 Pittsburgh
22) 51.74 Detroit
23) 49.23 Cleveland
24) 48.52 San Diego
25) 48.09 Miami
26) 47.91 Buffalo
27) 43.17 Tennessee
28) 41.69 Indianapolis
29) 40.32 Oakland
30) 37.33 Philadelphia
31) 24.03 Jacksonville
32) 22.76 Kansas City
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Season projection:

New England Patriots 6-3 (7-0) (13-3)
Miami Dolphins 4-5 (3-4) (7-9)
New York Jets 3-6 (5-2) (8-8)
Buffalo Bills 3-6 (2-5) (5-11)

Baltimore Ravens 7-2 (3-4) (10-6)
Pittsburgh Steelers 6-3 (3-4) (9-7)
Cincinnati Bengals 4-5 (6-1) (10-6)
Cleveland Browns 2-7 (2-5) (4-12)

Houston Texans 6-3 (6-1) (12-4)
Indianapolis Colts 4-5 (1-6) (5-11)
Tennessee Titans 3-6 (3-4) (6-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-8 (0-7) (1-15)

Denver Broncos 6-3 (7-0) (13-3)
San Diego Chargers 4-5 (1-6) (5-11)
Oakland Raiders 3-6 (1-6) (4-12)
Kansas City Chiefs 1-8 (0-7) (1-15)

New York Giants 6-4 (5-1) (11-5)
Dallas Cowboys 4-5 (7-0) (11-5)
Philadelphia Eagles 3-6 (0-7) (3-13)
Washington Redskins 3-6 (4-3) (9-7)

Chicago Bears 7-2 (4-3) (11-5)
Green Bay Packers 6-3 (7-0) (13-3)
Minnesota Vikings 6-4 (0-6) (6-10)
Detroit Lions 4-5 (1-6) (5-11)

Atlanta Falcons 8-1 (2-5) (10-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-4 (5-2) (10-6)
New Orleans Saints 4-5 (2-5) (6-10)
Carolina Panthers 2-7 (7-0) (9-7)

San Francisco 49ers 6-2-1 (5-2) (11-4-1)
Seattle Seahawks 6-4 (6-0) (12-4)
Arizona Cardinals 4-5 (1-6) (5-11)
St. Louis Rams 3-5-1 (4-3) (7-8-1)


New Standings

New England Patriots 13-3
New York Jets 8-8
Miami Dolphins 7-9
Buffalo Bills 5-11

Baltimore Ravens 10-6
Cincinnati Bengals 10-6
Pittsburgh Steelers 9-7
Cleveland Browns 4-12

Houston Texans 12-4
Tennessee Titans 6-10
Indianapolis Colts 5-11
Jacksonville Jaguars 1-15

Denver Broncos 13-3
San Diego Chargers 5-11
Oakland Raiders 4-12
Kansas City Chiefs 1-15

Dallas Cowboys 11-5
New York Giants 11-5
Washington Redskins 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles 3-13

Green Bay Packers 13-3
Chicago Bears 11-5
Minnesota Vikings 6-10
Detroit Lions 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10-6
Atlanta Falcons 10-6
Carolina Panthers 9-7
New Orleans Saints 6-10

Seattle Seahawks 12-4
San Francisco 49ers 11-4-1
St. Louis Rams 7-8-1
Arizona Cardinals 5-11

AFC Playoffs

New England, Denver-Bye
Pittsburgh @ Houston
Cincinnati @ Baltimore

Cincinnati @ New England
Houston @ Denver

Denver @ New England

NFC Playoffs

Green Bay, Seattle-Bye
Chicago @ Dallas
San Francisco @ Tampa Bay

Chicago @ Green Bay
San Francisco @ Seattle

Seattle @ Green Bay

SUPERB OWL

Denver v Green Bay
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bbllstr22


Joined: 08 Jan 2007
Posts: 6349
Location: Hell. The only place where the devil's advocate can reside.
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
SUPERB OWL

Denver v Green Bay

Darn.
I want a superb owl. I only have this POS barn owl. Hedwig would be a major upgrade.
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Playoffs--------92 receptions (2nd), 1242 yards (4th), 9 TDs (7th)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbllstr22 wrote:
justo wrote:
SUPERB OWL

Denver v Green Bay

Darn.
I want a superb owl. I only have this POS barn owl. Hedwig would be a major upgrade.




You can haz this one. Plenty to share
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SaveourSonics


Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45415
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seattle vs Green Bay would be an awesome NFCCG.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 12951
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SaveourSonics wrote:
Seattle vs Green Bay would be an awesome NFCCG.
Yeah, hopefully the Packers can win again [/bitterness]
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Tom Shean


Joined: 10 Oct 2012
Posts: 4740
Location: Tha 703
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Uhhh... Colts are 6-3 right now, you have them finishing 5-11?
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49ersfan


Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 6390
PostPosted: Tue Nov 13, 2012 11:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Falcons out of the playoffs? That's certainly a bold prediction (i know its mathematical, not your own personal prediction).
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