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justo's close games are lucky thread
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GSUeagles14


Joined: 21 Jan 2011
Posts: 6289
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
Some folks struggle with math...


I'll make you a bet for whatever you want. If the falcons win more than 10 games I win, at or under 10 obviously you do. Deal?
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JCamGOPACKGO


Joined: 14 Jan 2012
Posts: 753
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GSUeagles14 wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Some folks struggle with math...


I'll make you a bet for whatever you want. If the falcons win more than 10 games I win, at or under 10 obviously you do. Deal?


I'd be eager to make that bet too! All they have to do is win 2 of 8 games after winning 8 in a row lmao. You're a real daredevil of a bettor, arencha?
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GSUeagles14


Joined: 21 Jan 2011
Posts: 6289
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JCamGOPACKGO wrote:
GSUeagles14 wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Some folks struggle with math...


I'll make you a bet for whatever you want. If the falcons win more than 10 games I win, at or under 10 obviously you do. Deal?


I'd be eager to make that bet too! All they have to do is win 2 of 8 games after winning 8 in a row lmao. You're a real daredevil of a bettor, arencha?


Pay attention there guy, see if you can figure out why the terms are what they are

And they would have towin three games Wink
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JCamGOPACKGO


Joined: 14 Jan 2012
Posts: 753
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GSUeagles14 wrote:
JCamGOPACKGO wrote:
GSUeagles14 wrote:
incognito_man wrote:
Some folks struggle with math...


I'll make you a bet for whatever you want. If the falcons win more than 10 games I win, at or under 10 obviously you do. Deal?


I'd be eager to make that bet too! All they have to do is win 2 of 8 games after winning 8 in a row lmao. You're a real daredevil of a bettor, arencha?


Pay attention there guy, see if you can figure out why the terms are what they are

And they would have towin three games Wink


I have paid attention and read this entire thread. Except for your posts, I skim those because there isn't usually much good in there "guy" - so that would explain the 2 wins gaffe. But the one thing I've noticed from paying attention is that you struggle tremendously with basic statistics and are taking every word written in this thread literally. I've also noticed you either struggle with typing, the English language in general, or alcoholism...I haven't been able to figure that one out yet.
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maggot


Joined: 18 Aug 2008
Posts: 720
Location: Sunny Coast
PostPosted: Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

oh man my lucky little leprechaun said the falcons would keep winning if i stopped rubbing him on the head so we can't go 10-6 either your system is way off or my leprechaun is lying to me. why would my leprechaun do this to
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

maggot wrote:
oh man my lucky little leprechaun said the falcons would keep winning if i stopped rubbing him on the head so we can't go 10-6 either your system is way off or my leprechaun is lying to me. why would my leprechaun do this to


Quote:
Cool 74.66 Carolina
9) 70.71 Chicago
10) 69.70 Dallas
11) 68.53 Washington
12) 68.03 St. Louis
13) 66.37 New York Jets
14) 66.06 New Orleans
15) 66.05 Tampa Bay
16) 65.70 Atlanta


The games are going to be close. If they play to their averages every single NFC South team will have a slight lean in their games against Atlanta. Do I think that they will no. The point of this thread is to weight wins because close games are crap shots. The NFC South teams are really close in talent. I think the Falcons go around 50 in the games against the NFC South from here on out.
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Superman(DH23)


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
Posts: 19336
Location: Abdi on the sick sig
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
maggot wrote:
oh man my lucky little leprechaun said the falcons would keep winning if i stopped rubbing him on the head so we can't go 10-6 either your system is way off or my leprechaun is lying to me. why would my leprechaun do this to


Quote:
Cool 74.66 Carolina
9) 70.71 Chicago
10) 69.70 Dallas
11) 68.53 Washington
12) 68.03 St. Louis
13) 66.37 New York Jets
14) 66.06 New Orleans
15) 66.05 Tampa Bay
16) 65.70 Atlanta


The games are going to be close. If they play to their averages every single NFC South team will have a slight lean in their games against Atlanta. Do I think that they will no. The point of this thread is to weight wins because close games are crap shots. The NFC South teams are really close in talent. I think the Falcons go around 50 in the games against the NFC South from here on out.
Saw a stat on Fox that 49% of games in the NFL are decided by 1 score or less, that would mean half of all games under your theory are just lucky. So there are no good teams in the NFL, just lucky teams if you believe your theory (which I have to believe that you don't really)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
justo wrote:
maggot wrote:
oh man my lucky little leprechaun said the falcons would keep winning if i stopped rubbing him on the head so we can't go 10-6 either your system is way off or my leprechaun is lying to me. why would my leprechaun do this to


Quote:
Cool 74.66 Carolina
9) 70.71 Chicago
10) 69.70 Dallas
11) 68.53 Washington
12) 68.03 St. Louis
13) 66.37 New York Jets
14) 66.06 New Orleans
15) 66.05 Tampa Bay
16) 65.70 Atlanta


The games are going to be close. If they play to their averages every single NFC South team will have a slight lean in their games against Atlanta. Do I think that they will no. The point of this thread is to weight wins because close games are crap shots. The NFC South teams are really close in talent. I think the Falcons go around 50 in the games against the NFC South from here on out.
Saw a stat on Fox that 49% of games in the NFL are decided by 1 score or less, that would mean half of all games under your theory are just lucky. So there are no good teams in the NFL, just lucky teams if you believe your theory (which I have to believe that you don't really)


Lucky in the sense of who won. Look at who the close games were against and the picture gets a lot clearer.
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Flaccomania


Joined: 12 Aug 2008
Posts: 23196
Location: Parkville, MD
PostPosted: Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Superman(DH23) wrote:
justo wrote:
maggot wrote:
oh man my lucky little leprechaun said the falcons would keep winning if i stopped rubbing him on the head so we can't go 10-6 either your system is way off or my leprechaun is lying to me. why would my leprechaun do this to


Quote:
Cool 74.66 Carolina
9) 70.71 Chicago
10) 69.70 Dallas
11) 68.53 Washington
12) 68.03 St. Louis
13) 66.37 New York Jets
14) 66.06 New Orleans
15) 66.05 Tampa Bay
16) 65.70 Atlanta


The games are going to be close. If they play to their averages every single NFC South team will have a slight lean in their games against Atlanta. Do I think that they will no. The point of this thread is to weight wins because close games are crap shots. The NFC South teams are really close in talent. I think the Falcons go around 50 in the games against the NFC South from here on out.
Saw a stat on Fox that 49% of games in the NFL are decided by 1 score or less, that would mean half of all games under your theory are just lucky. So there are no good teams in the NFL, just lucky teams if you believe your theory (which I have to believe that you don't really)


I feel like you (and several other posters) are missing the point of the research.

It's not saying "Hey, every close game is a pure toss up so people are just lucky all the time".

It's about putting records into context to allow people to look past pure records and more into how the team got to that record so you can get a better understanding of the strength of that team. By doing that, you can better predict the outcome of games on paper (ie using statistics and not watching games).

An example:

If I told you Team A with a 10-3 record was squaring off against Team B with a 7-6 record, and that's all the information you had (again, this is paper that doesn't have the ability to actually watch the teams play), which team would you believe had the better chance of winning?

I'd have to assume you'd think Team A should be the favorite, right?

Now, let me give you some additional information:

Team A's 10 wins have come via the following scores:

24-23
17-14
21-17
29-28
17-15
31-27
24-21
24-20
30-24
31-28

That's 10 wins by a combined 31 points, or 3.1 points per win.

And their 3 losses came by the scores:

55-24
31-13
34-10

That's 3 losses by a combined 73 points or 24.3 points per loss.

In summary: Team A has won 10 games by close margins and their 3 losses they have been blown out of the water.

Now, for Team B's wins:

31-14
27-13
28-21
17-14
24-9
26-17
35-7

That's 7 wins by a combined 93 points, or 13.3 points per win.

And their 6 losses:

20-17
24-23
30-24
31-27
14-10
21-17

That's 6 losses by a combined 21 points, or 3.5 points per loss.

Summary: Team A has the better record, but has squeaked by in most of it's wins, and in it's 3 losses they've been blown out of the water. On the other hand, Team B's 7 wins have all been fairly decisive, yet their 6 losses have all been very close (within 1 score).

Now, back to the original question:

Team A 10-3 vs. Team B 7-6. Is Team A still favored? Has the difference between the two teams now changed your confidence level in the prediction? I'd have to assume yes, right? That is what his research is trying to do -- put the records into context by removing the 1 score games in which a single play, a bounce one way or another, a single bad call, etc can impact the final result. Does a 2-0 team who won on their opponents dropping last second TDs really have much of a difference over a team who had two last second TDs dropped? The records would show yes, but the context tells us otherwise. We have the benefit of watching the games themselves to form our opinions, but statistics do not and his research is going towards adding context to the records to give a more accurate model of determining which team will win based on paper alone.
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th87


Joined: 04 Aug 2008
Posts: 521
PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bbllstr22 wrote:
justo wrote:
Season predictions:
Atlanta Falcons 10-6 (16)

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
Falcons apparently are going 2-6 after going 8-0. Love it.


It's a model. There will be outliers.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Buffalo (41.25) New England (101.32) 60.07
Denver (107.29) Carolina (74.80) 32.49
New York Giants (76.98) Cincinnati (49.77) 27.21
San Diego (44.90) Tampa Bay (66.10) 21.20
Indianapolis (41.38) Jacksonville (27.38) 14.00
Tennessee (47.75) Miami (60.47) 12.72
Oakland (44.48) Baltimore (56.10) 11.62
Detroit (55.03) Minnesota (47.79) 7.24
Atlanta (65.67) New Orleans (66.20) 0.53


1-0
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2012 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Buffalo (41.25) New England (101.32) 60.07
Denver (107.29) Carolina (74.80) 32.49
Dallas (71.73) Philadelphia (42.90) 28.83
New York Giants (76.98) Cincinnati (49.77) 27.21
St. Louis (64.32) San Francisco (85.95) 21.63
San Diego (44.90) Tampa Bay (66.10) 21.20
New York Jets (64.83) Seattle (84.60) 19.77
Indianapolis (41.38) Jacksonville (27.38) 14.00
Tennessee (47.75) Miami (60.47) 12.72
Oakland (44.48) Baltimore (56.10) 11.62
Detroit (55.03) Minnesota (47.79) 7.24
Atlanta (65.67) New Orleans (66.20) 0.53


6-3
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Buffalo (41.25) New England (101.32) 60.07
Denver (107.29) Carolina (74.80) 32.49
Dallas (71.73) Philadelphia (42.90) 28.83
New York Giants (76.98) Cincinnati (49.77) 27.21
St. Louis (64.32) San Francisco (85.95) 21.63
San Diego (44.90) Tampa Bay (66.10) 21.20
New York Jets (64.83) Seattle (84.60) 19.77
Indianapolis (41.38) Jacksonville (27.38) 14.00
Chicago (72.96) Houston (87.78) 14.82
Tennessee (47.75) Miami (60.47) 12.72
Oakland (44.48) Baltimore (56.10) 11.62
Detroit (55.03) Minnesota (47.79) 7.24
Atlanta (65.67) New Orleans (66.20) 0.53


8-3-1?
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incognito_man


Joined: 11 Jan 2007
Posts: 31978
Location: Madison
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

used this partially for my 3-team parlay this week:

Dallas @ -1: Win
New Orleans @ +3: Win
Houston @ +1: Win

thanks justo Very Happy
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13422
PostPosted: Sun Nov 11, 2012 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

incognito_man wrote:
used this partially for my 3-team parlay this week:

Dallas @ -1: Win
New Orleans @ +3: Win
Houston @ +1: Win

thanks justo Very Happy


De nada. I was thinking about doing betting research but we can't talk about it on here and I'm not sure how it would work with lines. It would have to be like money line research. Almost did a Dallas, Seattle, San Francisco parlay today. Almost pulled the trigger. I would have lost it
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