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justo's close games are lucky thread
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13387
PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:54 pm    Post subject: justo's close games are lucky thread Reply with quote

So a theory I have bought into the past couple years is that close games are generally a toss up. That in a games in which teams lose or win by 8 or less points usually end up around 50%. I first bought into this theory when Dennis Erikson's college career with Arizona State started and everyone was excited that he jump started the program so quickly. IIRC he had a ten win season. He never even came close to that again. Why? Because every close game his team was in they won. That's luck. I want to track each NFL team's luck this year and I think there is finally enough data to start this week. The theory is to make this thread to show posters which teams are "overrated" and which ones are "underrated" before we see teams have a late season collapse or we see one rise. All that being said I have never done this for the NFL before, only the NCAA and I know they are very different. Either way it should be pretty fun.

First off I'll state why 8 point games. 8 point games mean that in one opportunity the game can be totally flipped. A rushing touchdown, sack fumble touchdown, pick six, a passing TD. One play, either side of the ball, and you can try for a two point conversion. Now I know you aren't promised you will make that two pointer, but you are promised you get a shot at it. You aren't promised that touchdown before the two pointer either. You could use 6, 7, or even 3 as close game cutoff but I choose to use 8.

Okay, so we got that out of the way. Now we need to find out teams and how many close games they have had. We are going to list them like this:

TEAM: Real Record (Best Case Scenario Record, Worst Case Scenario Record)

Best case scenario is when they win all possible "close" games and worst case scenario is when they lost all of said games.

Example:

justo's pirates vs PML's warriors 7-10
justo's pirates @ SoS's monkeys 10-7
justo's pirates vs tyty's swag 24-0
justo's pirates @ bucs' monsters 0-24
justo's pirates vs ET's knees 20-13

justo's pirates record is 3-2 but three games were decided by less than or 8 points.

justo's pirates best case is that he's 4-1. Only lost one game by more than 8 points (bucs' monsters)

justo's pirates worst case is that he's 1-4. Only won one game by more than 8 points (tyty's swag)

the layout (shown before the example) again is:

TEAM: Real Record (Best Case Scenario Record, Worst Case Scenario Record)

so it's:
justo's pirates 3-2 (4-1, 1-4)

here are the results for the NFL

NFL Standings


New England: 3-2 (5-0, 3-2)
New York J: 2-3 (3-2, 1-4)
Miami: 2-3 (4-1, 1-4)
Buffalo: 2-3 (2-3, 2-3)

Baltimore: 4-1 (5-0, 1-4)
Cincinnati: 3-2 (4-1, 1-4)
Pittsburgh: 2-2 (3-1, 1-3)
Cleveland: 0-5 (3-2, 0-5)

Houston: 5-0 (5-0, 3-2)
Indianapolis: 2-2 (3-1, 0-4)
Jacksonville: 1-4 (2-3, 0-5)
Tennessee: 1-4 (1-4, 0-5)

San Diego: 3-2 (4-1, 2-3)
Denver: 2-3 (4-1, 2-3)
Oakland: 1-3 (2-2, 0-4)
Kansas City: 1-4 (2-3, 0-5)

Philadelphia: 3-2 (4-1, 0-5)
New York G: 3-2 (5-0, 2-3)
Dallas: 2-2 (2-2, 0-4)
Washington: 2-3 (5-0, 0-5)

Minnesota: 4-1 (5-0, 2-3)
Chicago: 4-1 (4-1, 4-1)
Green Bay: 2-3 (5-0, 1-4)
Detroit: 1-3 (4-0, 0-4)

Atlanta: 5-0 (5-0, 2-3)
Tampa Bay: 1-3 (4-0 ,0-4)
Carolina: 1-4 (4-1, 0-5)
New Orleans: 1-4 (5-0, 0-5)

Arizona: 4-1 (4-1, 1-4)
San Francisco: 4-1 (4-1, 2-3)
St. Louis: 3-2 (4-1, 1-4)
Seattle: 3-2 (5-0, 1-4)

Interesting notes:

Winning Worst Case Scenarios:
Chicago (4-1)
Houston (3-2)
New England (3-2)

These are pretty much teams that no matter what would have been winning. Odd to see Chicago up there to be honest. Didn't think they would have been on this list.

Losing Best Case Scenarios:

Buffalo (2-3)
Jacksonville (2-3)
Kansas City (2-3)
Tennessee (1-4)

These are pretty much teams that would have been bad no matter what.

Teams playing at "peaks" (teams that have won 100% of close games):
Atlanta (5-0)
Houston (5-0)
Arizona (4-1)
San Francisco (4-1)
Tennessee (1-4)
Dallas (2-2)

I realize there may be a problem here with teams that have only won games (Houston, Atlanta) but I'm not sure how to fix this nor do I really think it matters. I just want this thing to play out. These teams' records should decrease as the season goes on and they average out.

Teams playing at "valleys" (teams that have lost 100% of close games):
New England (3-2)
Denver (2-3)
Cleveland (0-5)

Ditto the comment about Houston and Atlanta above about Cleveland. These teams' records should improve as the season goes on and they average out.

(no close games):
Chicago (4-1)
Buffalo (2-3)

Nothing to really say here. No data to be found on these two. Should change over the next couple week though. Bound to play a close game at some point.

WTF teams (could be winless and undefeated):
Washington (5-0, 0-5)
New Orleans (5-0, 0-5)
Detroit (4-0, 0-4)
Tampa Bay (4-0, 0-4)

Craziest teams in the NFL. Must be crazy to be a fan of these teams. No real input either way on this one but it should be noted that all four have losing records and only Washington has more than one win although they "could" have been undefeated.
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Last edited by justo on Sun Jan 13, 2013 9:19 pm; edited 8 times in total
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13387
PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is how each team ranks based on how "lucky" they have been in close games this year. The way I ranked them was by percentage first, then sample size (figure bigger sample size would give a more accurate result), then alphabetical.

Arizona 100% (3/3)
Atlanta 100% (3/3)
Dallas 100% (2/2)
Houston 100% (2/2)
San Francisco 100% (2/2)
Tennessee 100% (1/1)

Baltimore 75% (3/4)
Philadelphia 75% (3/4)

Cincinnati 66% (2/3)
Indianapolis 66% (2/3)
Minnesota 66% (2/3)
New York G 66% (2/3)
St. Louis 66% (2/3)

New York J 50% (1/2)
Seattle 50% (2/4)

Jacksonville 50% (1/2)
Kansas City 50% (1/2)
Oakland 50% (1/2)
Pittsburgh 50% (1/2)
San Diego 50% (1/2)

Washington 40% (2/5)

Miami 33% (1/3)

Carolina 25% (1/4)
Detroit: 25% (1/4)
Green Bay 25% (1/4)
Tampa Bay 25% (1/4)

New Orleans 20% (1/5)

Cleveland 0% (0/3)
Denver 0% (0/2)
New England 0% (0/2)

Buffalo NA% (0/0)
Chicago NA% (0/0)
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
Posts: 13387
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adjusted win percentage: So if you buy into the fact that close wins are pretty much a toss up then let's treat each close win or loss as a tie and find each teams adjusted win % and find out what their win % would be. I would think that in some ways this would give a more accurate "win percentage" than just raw numbers.

Ranked in conference by adjusted win % and then alphabetically
TEAM ADJ WIN % ((worst case wins+best case wins/2) / # games)
(actual win % with positive or negative stock marks) (actual win % - adjusted win %)


NFL Standings
New England 80% (^60%) (-20%)
Miami 50% (^40%) (-10%)
Buffalo 40% (-40%) (0%)
New York J: 40% (-40%) (0%)

Baltimore 60% (v80%) (+20%)
Cincinnati 50% (v60%) (+10%)
Pittsburgh 50% (-50%) (0%)
Cleveland 30% (^0%) (-30%)

Houston: 80% (v100%) (+20%)
Indianapolis 37.5% (v50%) (+12.5%)
Jacksonville 20% (-20%) (0%)
Tennessee 10% (v20%) (+10%)

San Diego 60% (-60%) (0%)
Denver 60% (^40%) (-10%)
Oakland 25% (-25%) (0%)
Kansas City 20% (-20%) (0%)

New York G 70% (^60%) (-10%)
Washington 50% (^40%) (-10%)
Philadelphia 40% (v60%) (+20%)
Dallas 25% (v50%) (+25%)

Chicago 80% (-80%) (0%)
Minnesota 70% (v80%) (+10%)
Green Bay 60% (^40%) (-20%)
Detroit 50% (^20%) (-30%)

Atlanta 70% (v100%) (+30%)
New Orleans 50% (^20%) (-30%)
Tampa Bay 50% (^25%) (-25%)
Carolina 40% (^20%) (-20%)

San Francisco 60% (v80%) (+20%)
Seattle 60% (-60%) (0%)
Arizona 50% (v80%) (+30%)
St. Louis 50% (v60%) (+10%)


Teams ranked by adjusted win percentage. Essentially a power ranking without factoring in SOS. First I went by % then alphabetically.

Chicago 80%
Houston 80%
New England 80%

Atlanta 70%
Minnesota 70%
New York G 70%

Baltimore 60%
Denver 60%
Green Bay 60%
San Diego 60%
San Francisco 60%
Seattle 60%

Arizona 50%
Cincinnati 50%
Detroit 50%
Miami 50%
New Orleans 50%
Pittsburgh 50%
St. Louis 50%
Tampa Bay 50%
Washington 50%

Buffalo 40%
Carolina 40%
New York J 40%
Philadelphia 40%

Indianapolis 37.5%

Cleveland 30%

Dallas 25%
Oakland 25%

Jacksonville 20%
Kansas City 20%

Tennessee 10%



Here are teams ranked by difference of adjusted win percentage and actual win percentage. (Essentially from overrated to underrated based on actual win %) Ranked from percentage, then alphabetically.

Arizona (+30%)
Atlanta (+30%)

Dallas (+25%)

Baltimore (+20%)
Houston (+20%)
Philadelphia (+20%)
San Francisco (+20%)

Indianapolis (+12.5%)

Cincinnati (+10%)
Minnesota (+10%)
St. Louis (+10%)
Tennessee (+10%)

Buffalo (0%)
Chicago (0%)
Jacksonville (0%)
Kansas City (0%)
New York J (0%)
Oakland (0%)
Pittsburgh (0%)
San Diego (0%)
Seattle (0%)

Denver (-10%)
Miami (-10%)
New York G (-10%)
Washington (-10%)

Carolina (-20%)
Green Bay (-20%)
New England (-20%)

Tampa Bay (-25%)

Cleveland (-30%)
Detroit (-30%)
New Orleans (-30%)

Most underrated winning team: New England, Green Bay (-20%)
Most underrated losing team: New Orleans, Detroit, Cleveland (-30%)
Most overrated losing team: Dallas (+25%)
Most overrated winning team: Arizona, Atlanta (+30%)

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GSUeagles14


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A lot of flaws in this theory. Way too many variables to only look at the end core and decide what game was close and what wasn't. What happens if an team was up big, the team that is down scores a td and then the other drains the clock for the next 7minutes. Was it really close? Or what if a team kept it close for 57 minutes but then had a couple turnovers. Does that mean it wasn't close?
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RandyMossIsBoss


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So what your saying is that a win is only meaningful if it's by more than one score?...

[removed a bunch of silly gifs]
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JammerHammer21


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GSUeagles14 wrote:
A lot of flaws in this theory. Way too many variables to only look at the end core and decide what game was close and what wasn't. What happens if an team was up big, the team that is down scores a td and then the other drains the clock for the next 7minutes. Was it really close? Or what if a team kept it close for 57 minutes but then had a couple turnovers. Does that mean it wasn't close?


Yep. Like the Chargers-Raiders game. Chargers were in complete control and were only "threatened" at the end because of a penalty.
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justo


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Picks (straight up adjusted win %, take nothing into account unless it's a tie and that goes to the team with the home field)
Steelers (50) @ Titans (10)
Chiefs (20) @ Buccaneers (50)
Colts (37.5) @ Jets (40)
Bengals (50) @ Browns (30)
Lions (50) @ Eagles (40)
Raiders (25) @ Falcons (70)
Rams (50) @ Dolphins (50)
Cowboys (25) @ Ravens (60)
Bills (40) @ Cardinals (50)
Patriots (80) @ Seahawks (60)
Giants (70) @ 49ers (60)
Vikings (70) @ Redskins (50)
Packers (60) @ Texans (80)
Broncos (60) @ Chargers (60)

Last five games will be huge for this. Pats +20 on the road, Giants +10 on the road, Packers -20 away, Broncos+Chargers a tie in SD, Vikings a surprise team against a team that could be undefeated or winless on the road.

Power rankings:

1-3: Chicago, Houston, New England

4-6: Atlanta, Minnesota, New York G

7-12: Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle

13-21: Arizona, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington

22-25: Buffalo, Carolina, New York J, Philadelphia

26: Indianapolis

27: Cleveland

28-29: Dallas, Oakland

30-31: Jacksonville, Kansas City

32: Tennessee
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bbllstr22


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

So really, the last few super bowls have been shams because they've all been close.
I see.
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another critique is that this measure would be biased against good defensive teams in favor of good offensive teams, since you are using a fixed point spread to indicate "close game".
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Warpticon


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This has already been done, basically, by groups like Football Outsiders and PFF, with more/better data.
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RandyMossIsBoss


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
Picks (straight up adjusted win %, take nothing into account unless it's a tie and that goes to the team with the home field)
Steelers (50) @ Titans (10)
Chiefs (20) @ Buccaneers (50)
Colts (37.5) @ Jets (40)
Bengals (50) @ Browns (30)
Lions (50) @ Eagles (40)
Raiders (25) @ Falcons (70)
Rams (50) @ Dolphins (50)
Cowboys (25) @ Ravens (60)
Bills (40) @ Cardinals (50)
Patriots (80) @ Seahawks (60)
Giants (70) @ 49ers (60)
Vikings (70) @ Redskins (50)
Packers (60) @ Texans (80)
Broncos (60) @ Chargers (60)

Last five games will be huge for this. Pats +20 on the road, Giants +10 on the road, Packers -20 away, Broncos+Chargers a tie in SD, Vikings a surprise team against a team that could be undefeated or winless on the road.

Power rankings:

1-3: Chicago, Houston, New England

4-6: Atlanta, Minnesota, New York G

7-12: Baltimore, Denver, Green Bay, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle

13-21: Arizona, Cincinnati, Detroit, Miami, New Orleans, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Washington

22-25: Buffalo, Carolina, New York J, Philadelphia

26: Indianapolis

27: Cleveland

28-29: Dallas, Oakland

30-31: Jacksonville, Kansas City

32: Tennessee


The Packers are a 7-12 team, but the Eagles are a 22-25 team? Let me guess, the Eagles got lucky beating Baltimore and Giants while the Packers got unlucky in losing to the Colts...
[removed silly gifs]

(Obvious thread to pimp own team is obvious)
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Come on guys, it's just a first-order analysis, it doesn't have to be perfect. In fact, there is no perfect model.

I don't know how much work any of you have done in statistics, but all a model needs to do is outperform a base model (which may be base winning % here or plus/minus) to prove there is some predictive power in the new model.
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burlow


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

And just to add to the confusion, what if a team loses a 7 point game at home, a place where vegas (bookies etc.) give the home team a 3 point advantage.

Or maybe a team was up by two touchdowns and allows the other team to drive for 3 minute to make a TD to get it to within 7 after dominating them the whole game...

Or, maybe a packer fan is unhappy and thinks his team is just unlucky to be in the situation they are in, this whole thing has very many holes in it and is a bit of a crock to me.
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justo


Joined: 05 Aug 2012
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wackywabbit wrote:
Come on guys, it's just a first-order analysis, it doesn't have to be perfect. In fact, there is no perfect model.

I don't know how much work any of you have done in statistics, but all a model needs to do is outperform a base model (which may be base winning % here or plus/minus) to prove there is some predictive power in the new model.
Pretty much this Laughing
And no I didn't make this to pimp out the Packers Laughing it doesnt hurt though. Bears (possible #1 NFL team Shocked ) and Vikings still ahead of them for division and the Lions are the tied with the Rams for the best 4th place team in a division.
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Meco


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Location: Las Vegas
PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

What do you know, a fan of a team that is losing close games is saying that winning close games is lucky. Who'd-uh-thunk-it?
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