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So, 5k Yards and 40 TDs......Not The Norm??
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x0x


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:27 am    Post subject: So, 5k Yards and 40 TDs......Not The Norm?? Reply with quote

There were many people who last year said was an anomaly. A product of a sparse off-season and defenses not meshing early.


There were of course those that said, like when 4,000 yards and 30 TDs became a season occurence, the era had changed.



So, with 6 weeks in the books (except Chargers/Broncos) the following players are projected for either 5,000 passing yards or 40 TDs or more:

Drew Brees-45 TDs & 5,504 Yards
Aaron Rodgers-43 TDs

Brady is projected for 4,920 Yards

Matt Ryan and Peyton are currently projected for 4,800 yards and 36+ TDs.


And of course several QBs are projected for 4,500+ and 30+ TDs so that's not even in the discussion.
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joru1000


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i don't even know what an elite QB season should look like statistically anymore.
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x0x


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

joru1000 wrote:
i don't even know what an elite QB season should look like statistically anymore.


If it's not 4,500 yards and at least 30 TDs.

You got a bum throwing the ball for your team. Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Wolverine_Joe


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

still the pace is much slower than the last year. i think brees is the only one whoas a legitimate shot at 5000 yards again. and i think only 1 QB will get to 40+tds this year.
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lionslicer


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Season so far has been up and down and odd... I think a few weeks ago, there weren't any quarterbacks on set for 40 TD's, but there were a few who were projected to get 5000 yards, including Vick.

Last season was odd enough, and this season isn't much different. Wait a couple weeks before we start projecting 5000 yards for everyone and their mother.
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Vikefan79


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I absolutely hate it. It's really not fun to watch. Corners can't play defense anymore. It's pass interference if you just brush up next to the guy after 5 yards. Deion Sanders would have a hard time stopping these timing routes.

Terry Bradshaw summed up my feelings perfectly when he spoke about Brees breaking Unitas' record.


Quote:

"I was a little upset that (Brees) went to the NFL to get (suspended coach Sean) Payton and everybody back to watch him break a record," Bradshaw said in an interview with WFAN in New York. "I'm like, 'Are you kidding me?' I never would have gone and asked for them back ... I thought it was disrespectful to the San Diego Chargers. ... So break it, go ahead. Hell, you're throwing it 50 times a game ... I'm just against stuff like that. I just don't believe in doing stuff like that."

And that wasn't all the Pittsburgh Steelers icon and Fox analyst had to say.

"(The record) didn't blow me away," Bradshaw said. "I'm not much on that stuff ... I'm not into records, fellas. I'm just into winning football games. (The Saints) hadn't won a game ... I'm not into records, I'm into winning Super Bowls ... These things aren't important. We lose sight of why we play. We play to win and to win championships, not to break records."
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Are there just an abnormal level of HOF QBs (Brady, Arod, Manning (x2), Brees, Big Ben?) playing in this era or is this era more prone to producing more HOF worthy QBs?

Might be a combination of both. Numbers seem to be up in the grand scheme of things, but looking at some of the elite mile stones 40 TDs and 5000 yards, my guess is there are just an abundance of HOF Worthy QBs.

Stafford did hit 5000 last year, I am not implying that he is a HOF QB, but he is throwing to a WR with HOF potential in an offense that had no running game. I think more teams are becoming more accepting that you dont really need to run the ball to be a good team, so my guess would be passing attempts are probably up now versus the past decade.

Eventually it will probably climax and we will probably see offenses become more balanced once again. Right now, if you dont have a QB who can potentially fling it around and put up a 4000 yard season with ease, your probably toast. The 49ers seemed like the rare exception last yr.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The more astounding thing to me is how little receiving totals have changed comparatively.

In 2000, the league saw 18 1000 yard receivers, 10 over 1300, and 6 over 1400. 5 guys topped 10 TDs, with 10 topped 9 TDs. Yet you only had 3 4000 yard passers (the leader topped out at 4413), 3 guys over 30 passing TDs (the max was 33), and only one 65% completion rate.

Fast forward to 2011, and the QB numbers skyrocket. 4 guys completing 65% of their passes (one at over 70%), 10 4000 yard passers (and 3 5000 yarders), and 5 guys tossing over 30 TDs (3 over 40.)

But receivers in 2011 still only saw 19 1000 yard receivers, only 7 over 1300, and 4 over 1400. Still just 5 guys with over 10 receiving TDs. 10 had 9 or more.

Hell, you can go back to 1985 and still find 11 1000 yard receivers and 6 guys with over 10 receiving TDs. But that year will only give you one 4000 yard passer (Marino at just over 4100), one 30 TD passer (Marino locked right at 30) and no one completing over 62% of their passes, let alone 65% or the ridiculous 70% that was hit last year.

The proficiency with which modern passers are spreading the ball around and maximizing what they have really is astonishing.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:

Stafford did hit 5000 last year, I am not implying that he is a HOF QB, but he is throwing to a WR with HOF potential in an offense that had no running game. I think more teams are becoming more accepting that you dont really need to run the ball to be a good team, so my guess would be passing attempts are probably up now versus the past decade.


Matt Stafford is the perfect example of the craziness of this though, and the proof that it isn't simply the bold. Stafford's EFFICIENCY numbers last year would've even been elite in prior decades. It isn't just the bulk stats. He threw for 7.6 ypa and 63.5% of his passes were complete. Going back one decade, to the 2001 season, those numbers were good for 5th each in the NFL. Going back to 1991, those numbers would be good for 5th and 4th, respectively. Further than that, it gets a little weird because of the nature of passing, and his ypa would stay around 5th-10th in the NFL, and his completion percentage would just blow everyone out of the water, so I'll stop there.

In 2011 however, Stafford's 7.6 ypa was good for 13th in the NFL, and his completion percentage was good for 5th in the NFL.

It isn't just bulk stats due to attempts. Efficiency numbers are going way up for QBs as well.
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IrishGreen


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
Are there just an abnormal level of HOF QBs (Brady, Arod, Manning (x2), Brees, Big Ben?) playing in this era or is this era more prone to producing more HOF worthy QBs?

Might be a combination of both. Numbers seem to be up in the grand scheme of things, but looking at some of the elite mile stones 40 TDs and 5000 yards, my guess is there are just an abundance of HOF Worthy QBs.

Stafford did hit 5000 last year, I am not implying that he is a HOF QB, but he is throwing to a WR with HOF potential in an offense that had no running game. I think more teams are becoming more accepting that you dont really need to run the ball to be a good team, so my guess would be passing attempts are probably up now versus the past decade.

Eventually it will probably climax and we will probably see offenses become more balanced once again. Right now, if you dont have a QB who can potentially fling it around and put up a 4000 yard season with ease, your probably toast. The 49ers seemed like the rare exception last yr.


well there is a big age gap between like manning and rodgers. not like they were in the same draft class or anything.
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x0x


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:

The proficiency with which modern passers are spreading the ball around and maximizing what they have really is astonishing.



This is due to more advanced game planning.

Back in the day, star receivers wouldn't get double teamed as often. You'd just put your best DB on him.

Now some games you'll see a guy like Calvin Johnson get triple coverage.

This inevitably opens up catches for other WRs, etc.


Considering the NFL has a deeper pool of talent than ever, it's no wonder lesser WRs can take advantage of the opportunity.


vikingesrule wrote:
Are there just an abnormal level of HOF QBs (Brady, Arod, Manning (x2), Brees, Big Ben?) playing in this era or is this era more prone to producing more HOF worthy QBs?

Might be a combination of both. Numbers seem to be up in the grand scheme of things, but looking at some of the elite mile stones 40 TDs and 5000 yards, my guess is there are just an abundance of HOF Worthy QBs.


And the 90s saw an abundance of Hall of Fame worthy RBs right?


Nah, it's just a numbers game. If the Hall of Fame doesn't expand the number of yearly inductees, a lot of these "Hall of Fame worthy" guys won't make it in.


Also don't forget that guys like Brady and Peyton span many seasons in the NFL so you can't really count them in this era effectively.


I mean, when you boil it down, it's not an over-abundance of Hall of Fame QBs at all. Lynn Dickey once lead the NFL in passing yards didn't he?

Consider that there was a time in the NFL when the following Hall of Fame QBs were all still more than serviceable:

John Elway
Joe Montana
Dan Marino
Jim Kelly
Steve Young
Troy Aikman
Warren Moon
Brett Favre

That's 8 guys. And this is from 92-94.

Obviously Favre, Young and Aikman weren't considered sure Hall of Famers yet. But that still leaves 5 guys many believed to be headed to Canton.

And don't forget guys like Phil Simms & Randall Cunningham.

Dave Krieg was basically Donovan McNabb of his time, etc.


So no, I don't think there's an over-abundance of Hall of Fame QBs, but let's take a look:


Tom Brady
Peyton Manning
Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers
Eli Manning
Ben Roethlisberger

Philip Rivers
Jay Cutler



No more than 8 at the moment, and of course Rivers and Cutler are on the bubble and I'm being premature like many here in putting Aaron Rodgers in the likely category (Boomer Esiason probably looked like a likely Hall of Famer too once)



If we go back 2 years ago, you'd add Brett Favre and Kurt Warner to that list but probably take away Eli, Rodgers and Cutler.



So I think for every era there's probably 6-8 Hall of Fame QBs. As that is the position that gets overdone in Canton anyway.




For trivial purposes,


John Elway
Dan Marino
Steve Young
Troy Aikman
Warren Moon
Brett Favre
Kurt Warner
Peyton Manning

As active Hall of Famers+


Drew Bledsoe
Steve McNair
Randall Cunningham



Probably the most Hall of Fame worthy QBs in one season that I can think of.
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Wolverine_Joe


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

x0x wrote:



John Elway
Dan Marino
Steve Young
Troy Aikman
Warren Moon
Brett Favre
Kurt Warner
Peyton Manning

As active Hall of Famers+


Drew Bledsoe
Steve McNair
Randall Cunningham



Probably the most Hall of Fame worthy QBs in one season that I can think of.


warner didn't play in 1998. steve mcnair in 98 wasn't anything special yet, not even close to HOF worhty. cunningham in 98 wasn't considered HOF material even with that great season. he never was HOF worthy. peyton in 98 was a rookie.


this year we have

brees
rodgers
brady
eli
big ben
peyton

true HOF worthy players.

and then dudes who can be HOF worthy with few successful playoff runs

rivers
ryan
romo


Last edited by Wolverine_Joe on Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:27 am; edited 2 times in total
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MysticLeviathan


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also think a lot of it has to do with the safety reforms. In the past, defenses could smack the stuffing out of a receiver; now it's a 15 yard penalty. Defenses have had to change the way they play and how they can attack the QB, and I don't think they'll ever fully adjust to it.
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DannyB


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know this isn't supposed to be the sole focus of this thread, but just for my two cents: If every active QB's career ended today, I still think Peyton and Brady are the only two who have their tickets punched to Canton, no questions asked. Brees maybe, or is knocking on the door at least. The others, again, if their careers ended today, have either too many question marks or their resumés are too incomplete for me to say "definitely".
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x0x


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wolverine_Joe wrote:


warner didn't play in 1998. steve mcnair in 98 wasn't anything special yet, not even close to HOF worhty. cunningham in 98 wasn't considered HOF material even with that great season. he never was HOF worthy. peyton in 98 was a rookie.


this year we have

brees
rodgers
brady
eli
big ben
peyton

true HOF worthy players.

and then dudes who can be HOF worthy with few successful playoff runs

rivers
ryan
romo



Refer to my first list, in 1994 the league had 7 sure Hall of Famers and Favre emerging.

The second list was trivial as a reference to who was in the league, Warner was on the Rams and even threw a few passes so it counts.


Saying true Hall of Famers is subjective.

I can see Ben and Rodgers not making it.
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