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Bowe Worth The Dough?
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Ring of Fame


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Location: Lawrence, KS via KCMO
PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 5:54 pm    Post subject: Bowe Worth The Dough? Reply with quote

With no long-term contract signed between Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs before the season started, it appears Bowe's future will be a predominant topic of conversation until the two sides settle one way or the other. Some fans are hopeful Bowe signs a multi-year deal but many remain skeptical Bowe receives the type of offer he's looking for from Pioli and the Chiefs.

The underlying question in this discussion is twofold: how much is Dwayne Bowe worth? Should the Chiefs invest long term in Bowe given that value?

Vincent Jackson signed a 5 year / $55.55 million contract back in March; Sydney Rice signed a 5 year / $41 million contract this Summer. Calvin Johnson's 8 year / $132 million and Larry Fitzgerald's 8 year / $120 million deals were extensions made by their current team in the past couple years.

These provide only a rough gauge of Bowe's value on the open market. He certainly won't make Megatron money but he should command more money than Jackson's 5/55 deal. Bowe is more than 19 months younger than Jackson and doesn't come with the injury risk. I'll assume Bowe's agent wants something around 5 yr./55 million to stay in KC (I also assume he could go elsewhere to a team that will overpay like the Buccaneers did Jackson). When you're spending $55 million, you better be getting a sure thing - that's too much time and money to risk.

So is Bowe worth the price tag given the Chiefs current situation?

Maybe the two most important things you look for in a true No. 1 WR: No. 1 WR's need to play on the outside (I'm not talking Welker, Cruz, Amendola - I'm talking Marshall, Roddy, Nicks) and must be a go-to target despite facing No. 1 CB's every week. Bowe fits that mold. He plays with the 'big boys' outside and consistently proves to be a go-to guy.


Second, durability and receptions. In 5+ seasons with the Chiefs, Bowe started 72 games with the team, missing a handful of starts in his disappointing 2009 season (which appears to be nothing more than an outlier). In each of his other 4 seasons, Bowe has at least 70+ catches for 1000 yards (995 his rookie season) and 5+ TD's.

Bowe's 5 seasons with the Chiefs stack up with any No. 1 in the league (besides Calvin/Fitz (and A.J. Green now) who are in a class by themselves):

Year: GS - REC - YDS - TD

2007: 15 - 70 - 995 - 5
2008: 16 - 86 - 1022 - 7
2009: 9 - 47 - 589 - 4
2010: 16 - 72 - 1162 - 15
2011: 16 - 81 - 1159 - 5

Consider he's never had a consistent quarterback - offensive coordinator relationship and those numbers appear to be slightly deflated. If given a middle to top tier QB, I presume those numbers go up across the board along with his timing, comfort level, and understanding of the system.

Also noteworthy: since Bowe's 2007 draft class, here's a list of WR's who have established themselves as legitimate WR's in the NFL:

2008
DeSean Jackson
Jordy Nelson
Pierre Garcon
Steve Johnson

2009
Michael Crabtree
Percy Harvin
Jeremy Maclin
Kenny Britt
Hakeem Nicks
Mike Wallace

2010
Dem. Thomas
Dez Bryant

2011
AJ Green
Julio Jones
J. Baldwin
Torrey Smith

To me, the true No. 1's who play outside and are legitimate go-to guys I would value AT OR ABOVE Bowe's ability considering age, health, etc.:

H. Nicks
K. Britt
D. Thomas
D. Bryant
A. Green
J. Jones
S. Johnson
(M. Wallace)
(M. Crabtree)

Point being these guys don't come around often so when you do find one, it's an asset many teams don't have.

In my opinion, Bowe has proven he's a cornerstone-type of WR and projects to be around for a long time. He doesn't survive on speed (Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson) and he hasn't shown a history of injury. Bowe makes a living running physical, technical routes and using his god-given athletic ability in shielding defenders and protecting his own neck over the middle. Critical signs you look for in a No. 1.

Where I thought paying B. Carr No. 1 CB type of money would have been a bad investment last year, I don't feel the same about Bowe. Bowe is a Tier 2 WR (remember, Tier 1: Calvin/Fitz/Green), and a franchise player we can't afford to lose.

Only question is, would D. Bowe take a discount to stay in Kansas City?


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nicfre2011


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 6:32 pm    Post subject: Re: Bowe Worth The Dough? Reply with quote

Ring of Fame wrote:
With no long-term contract signed between Dwayne Bowe and the Chiefs before the season started, it appears Bowe's future will be a predominant topic of conversation until the two sides settle one way or the other. Some fans are hopeful Bowe signs a multi-year deal but many remain skeptical Bowe receives the type of offer he's looking for from Pioli and the Chiefs.

The underlying question in this discussion is twofold: how much is Dwayne Bowe worth? Should the Chiefs invest long term in Bowe given that value?

Vincent Jackson signed a 5 year / $55.55 million contract back in March; Sydney Rice signed a 5 year / $41 million contract this Summer. Calvin Johnson's 8 year / $132 million and Larry Fitzgerald's 8 year / $120 million deals were extensions made by their current team in the past couple years.

These provide only a rough gauge of Bowe's value on the open market. He certainly won't make Megatron money but he should command more money than Jackson's 5/55 deal. Bowe is more than 19 months younger than Jackson and doesn't come with the injury risk. I'll assume Bowe's agent wants something around 5 yr./55 million to stay in KC (I also assume he could go elsewhere to a team that will overpay like the Buccaneers did Jackson). When you're spending $55 million, you better be getting a sure thing - that's too much time and money to risk.

So is Bowe worth the price tag given the Chiefs current situation?

Maybe the two most important things you look for in a true No. 1 WR: No. 1 WR's need to play on the outside (I'm not talking Welker, Cruz, Amendola - I'm talking Marshall, Roddy, Nicks) and must be a go-to target despite facing No. 1 CB's every week. Bowe fits that mold. He plays with the 'big boys' outside and consistently proves to be a go-to guy.


Second, durability and receptions. In 5+ seasons with the Chiefs, Bowe started 72 games with the team, missing a handful of starts in his disappointing 2009 season (which appears to be nothing more than an outlier). In each of his other 4 seasons, Bowe has at least 70+ catches for 1000 yards (995 his rookie season) and 5+ TD's.

Bowe's 5 seasons with the Chiefs stack up with any No. 1 in the league (besides Calvin/Fitz (and A.J. Green now) who are in a class by themselves):

Year: GS - REC - YDS - TD

2007: 15 - 70 - 995 - 5
2008: 16 - 86 - 1022 - 7
2009: 9 - 47 - 589 - 4
2010: 16 - 72 - 1162 - 15
2011: 16 - 81 - 1159 - 5

Consider he's never had a consistent quarterback - offensive coordinator relationship and those numbers appear to be slightly deflated. If given a middle to top tier QB, I presume those numbers go up across the board along with his timing, comfort level, and understanding of the system.

Also noteworthy: since Bowe's 2007 draft class, here's a list of WR's who have established themselves as legitimate WR's in the NFL:

2008
DeSean Jackson
Jordy Nelson
Pierre Garcon
Steve Johnson

2009
Michael Crabtree
Percy Harvin
Jeremy Maclin
Kenny Britt
Hakeem Nicks
Mike Wallace

2010
Dem. Thomas
Dez Bryant

2011
AJ Green
Julio Jones
J. Baldwin
Torrey Smith

To me, the true No. 1's who play outside and are legitimate go-to guys I would value AT OR ABOVE Bowe's ability considering age, health, etc.:

H. Nicks
K. Britt
D. Thomas
D. Bryant
A. Green
J. Jones
S. Johnson
(M. Wallace)
(M. Crabtree)

Point being these guys don't come around often so when you do find one, it's an asset many teams don't have.

In my opinion, Bowe has proven he's a cornerstone-type of WR and projects to be around for a long time. He doesn't survive on speed (Mike Wallace, DeSean Jackson) and he hasn't shown a history of injury. Bowe makes a living running physical, technical routes and using his god-given athletic ability in shielding defenders and protecting his own neck over the middle. Critical signs you look for in a No. 1.

Where I thought paying B. Carr No. 1 CB type of money would have been a bad investment last year, I don't feel the same about Bowe. Bowe is a Tier 2 WR (remember, Tier 1: Calvin/Fitz/Green), and a franchise player we can't afford to lose.

Only question is, would D. Bowe take a discount to stay in Kansas City?


.


I agree with this topic and I think his value has been underrated due to the quarterback inconsistency and turnover at the offensive coordinator position - people always talk about that for a quarterback but fail to ever mention it as something that non-quarterback players have to make adjustments for.

I do disagree with your comment about players that are at or above Bowe's level as a true #1. Part of being a true #1 receiver is not only physical ability but also consistency. Bowe has had his concentration issues and has had to mature since coming into the league. But as of right now, in my opinion he has shown more consistency overall than players like Hakeem Nicks, Kenny Britt, Demaryius Thomas, Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, and definitely James Jones. Players like Thomas, Nicks, Britt, and Crabtree might have more potential, but so far it hasn't been realized to the consistet level that Bowe has shown. Stevie Johnson is the player out of your list along with A.J. Green that I would say from your list is at or slightly above Bowe. Johnson has made alot of improvement and like Bowe has suffered from some inconsistency at the quarterback position. I also think Mike Wallace is probably close but I don't think he is quite there yet.

This is just my opinion on the value of Bowe.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bowe is probably a top 7 to maybe 10 WR in the NFL as it stands. I'd say all things considered he deserves a contract worth over $10MM/yr, and to get the total amount up there, we should look for a 6 yr deal. I believe I proposed this past off-season he should get a 6 yr $65MM deal, with about half guaranteed. I have no idea if we will even consider that for him though. I doubt he gives us much of a discount, unless he sees a future QB worth hanging around for.
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ArrowheadRage58


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm curious which WR's other than CJ,Fitz,A.Johnson, and AJ you guys would prefer over Bowe the next 3-5 years? Personally I can't find one. Nobody else has superior numbers or has had a worse QB situation. WR's like Julio COULD develop into better players, but at the moment, there ain't 5 WR's better than Bowe.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 9:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
I'm curious which WR's other than CJ,Fitz,A.Johnson, and AJ you guys would prefer over Bowe the next 3-5 years? Personally I can't find one. Nobody else has superior numbers or has had a worse QB situation. WR's like Julio COULD develop into better players, but at the moment, there ain't 5 WR's better than Bowe.

I'd say depending on what you are looking for you could put Roddy, Julio, Jennings, Wallace, and Marshall ahead of Bowe. All have the talent to be right there with the top guys, but for various reasons haven't quite proven they belong there yet. I could see a case for Bowe being rated at the top of that group, or maybe the bottom depending how much you want a vertical threat, a consistent catcher, or perfect route runner. For what we should want, I'd put him around 5-6.
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Ring of Fame


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ArrowheadRage58 wrote:
I'm curious which WR's other than CJ,Fitz,A.Johnson, and AJ you guys would prefer over Bowe the next 3-5 years? Personally I can't find one. Nobody else has superior numbers or has had a worse QB situation. WR's like Julio COULD develop into better players, but at the moment, there ain't 5 WR's better than Bowe.


I'll throw out Brandon Marshall but I think that's just a toss-up...

You'd have to consider Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas based purely on potential.
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Taylor916


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes bowe is worth 11 million a year or even 12 and Carr was worth 10 million a year. If you want to win you have to pay the talent. Or keep pukeoli and be the royals
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Ring of Fame


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 12:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Taylor916 wrote:
Yes bowe is worth 11 million a year or even 12 and Carr was worth 10 million a year. If you want to win you have to pay the talent. Or keep pukeoli and be the royals


Carr's talent is worth $10 million a year? Or the 14.3 mil he's making this year?

Asomugha makes $15 mil this year, Champ Bailey makes $9 mil, Cortland Finnegan makes $9 mil and Dunta Robinson makes $8 mil. Unless Carr is a top 7 or top 8 Cornerback in the league, you don't shell out that kind of money.

D. Revis
C. Finnegan
B. Flowers
J. Joseph
J. Hayden
P. Peterson
I'd even include B. Browner and S. Smith over Carr.

Many these guys are better than Carr. In my opinion that money would be better spent on something other than maxing out a CB when we have Flowers. But then you look at our lack of depth in the secondary and I see where you're coming from...
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 7:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ring of Fame wrote:
Taylor916 wrote:
Yes bowe is worth 11 million a year or even 12 and Carr was worth 10 million a year. If you want to win you have to pay the talent. Or keep pukeoli and be the royals


Carr's talent is worth $10 million a year? Or the 14.3 mil he's making this year?

Asomugha makes $15 mil this year, Champ Bailey makes $9 mil, Cortland Finnegan makes $9 mil and Dunta Robinson makes $8 mil. Unless Carr is a top 7 or top 8 Cornerback in the league, you don't shell out that kind of money.

D. Revis
C. Finnegan
B. Flowers
J. Joseph
J. Hayden
P. Peterson
I'd even include B. Browner and S. Smith over Carr.

Many these guys are better than Carr. In my opinion that money would be better spent on something other than maxing out a CB when we have Flowers. But then you look at our lack of depth in the secondary and I see where you're coming from...


In our situation, you most definitely do. He was perfect for us and already a known commodity in our system. Keep your good young players unless you can't afford them, they simply don't want to be here, or you plan on using that money somewhere else. Carr wouldn't have been all that much more than Routt and we wouldn't have to worry about investing a high round pick in CB pretty soon. Besides that money WASN'T spent anywhere else.
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DT58_lives_on


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We should have signed him (Carr) during the season, when he came out and said he would give KC a discount. That is when we should have signed him, but alas now it is a moot point.
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DT58_lives_on


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 9:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes...next question.






Seriously though, there is no questioning this, especially to this team. Without Bowe we have almost no threat to throw the ball. Dex is great in the third down slot type of role, but I don't think anyone expects him to be a number 1. Baldwin has the talent, but has yet to show the ability if that make sense and Breaston well, has he even been playing?
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jimmydee


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To the statement that "Baldwin has the talent but has yet to prove himself" is a legitimate statement. But, only so far as he has not been thrown to enough to "prove himself". How do you prove yourself when you get thrown to 1-3 times a game?

And when your QB stares you down from the snap before he throws the ball to you, usually late or high, you have a target on you from the jump.

From my state of pissoffdom Sunday, I only saw Baldwin thrown to once and he made the catch.....from Quinn. Did I miss something, guys?
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nicfre2011


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jimmydee wrote:
To the statement that "Baldwin has the talent but has yet to prove himself" is a legitimate statement. But, only so far as he has not been thrown to enough to "prove himself". How do you prove yourself when you get thrown to 1-3 times a game?

And when your QB stares you down from the snap before he throws the ball to you, usually late or high, you have a target on you from the jump.

From my state of pissoffdom Sunday, I only saw Baldwin thrown to once and he made the catch.....from Quinn. Did I miss something, guys?


IIRC Baldwin was on the receiving end of a 3rd and long pass from Cassel. Again, I might be getting plays confused but I thought I remembered Cassel throwing Baldwin the ball and it was typically high and Baldwin had to make use of his elite vertical jump to go up and get the ball. I seem to remember that was one of Cassel's "wing-and-a-prayer" passes that he did actually complete.
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ArrowheadRage58


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DT58_lives_on wrote:
Yes...next question.






Seriously though, there is no questioning this, especially to this team. Without Bowe we have almost no threat to throw the ball. Dex is great in the third down slot type of role, but I don't think anyone expects him to be a number 1. Baldwin has the talent, but has yet to show the ability if that make sense and Breaston well, has he even been playing?


LOL, first it's "where's jon", now it's "where's steve"...Cassel makes good receivers disappear. He is only good enough to get 3 rb's involved, he ain't gonna get 3 or 4 WR's involved. A decent QB will utilize all 3 B's plus DMX. Maybe more sets without Eachus.
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kcstomp63


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 09, 2012 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cassel has known that he is on thin ice when it comes to his job. He became comfortable with Bowe and that is why he throws to him 90% of the time. He didn't even trust himself to get it to the other guys.
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