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Did Ron Rivera make the correct decision against Atlanta?
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Did Ron Rivera make the right decision?
Yes
59%
 59%  [ 32 ]
No
40%
 40%  [ 22 ]
Total Votes : 54

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wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

PatriotsWin! wrote:
Not his fault his dumb secondary let a sure INT by Ryan turn into a great grab by White. It can't all be on the coaches, the players need to execute.


Obviously, the game mostly comes down to execution by the players. But, you can't really discuss that like you can coaching decisions. I don't think anyone would say the Panthers shouldn't have tried to cover better Laughing.

I think this is significant because it's a miscalculation that so many coaches make so often.
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fretgod99


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
Didn't say you can't criticize it. Said I didn't have a problem with the decision. Bacon thinks it's the worst decision any football coach has ever made in the history of ever. I think it was a fair judgment call, whether the stats favor going for it or not.

Team neutral is irrelevant. The stats are specifically situational. The odds probably favored going for it. I don't have a problem with him punting it. That's all. That's all I've been saying the entire thread. I don't see there being a wrong or right answer in this situation and I said as much to the guy I had a conversation with about this while watching it go down live. You make a decision and count on your players to do their job, regardless of what that decision is.
See I don't get the bolded. If the odds favor going for it then that is the only right decision.
Disagree, but that's why these discussions happen. No worries. I just don't think this particular decision was all that big of a deal in the long run. That certainly wasn't what cost the Panthers the game.
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Zithers


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 3:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

the panthers win 99.9% of the time with that pin on the 1. no one knew haruki would bleep the bed that hard. you, me, the falcons, the panthers, rivera, haruki himself... no one thought for one second that he'd give up a 60 yarder in such an offensively terrible way.

absolutely the right call to make. would be different if it were 4th and inches. but 4th and 1 against a mike nolan defense and everyone knows cam is getting it... with the winning field goal for atlanta right at their backs... i just don't see it happening. our run game has been in a funk this season. not like last year where everything was automatic. glad we punted and didn't even consider that we should go for it.
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cpanthers178990


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GaTechRavens wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:

And I also said that both calls are correct. There is not a wrong call here, really...


Well, I mean...there is. Unless both decisions give you the exact same odds of winning, one is right and one is wrong.



So if the Panthers had went for it on 4th down got stopped and Atlanta turns around and still wins the game, you would think that was the right call?
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Harper41 wrote:
Of course he made the right call. He pinned the Falcons in there own 10 yard line. The Panthers secondary let Roddy White get behind them in what I'm assuming was a deep zone coverage, that's the first rule of being a safety, DONT LET ANYONE GET BEHIND YOU.


Heck, didn't they pin Atlanta down on the 2 yard line? I too blame that loss on the Panthers' D.
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Finnerception wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:

And there was no reason to expect that to be anything other than a fluke. Carolina's defense, over a sufficient sample size, is putrid. I read somewhere that the Panthers are 21 for 24 in 4th and 1 situations with Cam Newton. There's a stat I can believe in.


So shutting down a team for the previous 25 minutes of the same game isn't a sufficient sample size, but results based on a different game are? You expect any NFL defense to not give up a 60 yard pass in a prevent situation.


Sadly, the prevent defense prevents you from winning. I'll never understand why a DC would change his defense that was bottling up the opposition and then wonder why the other team goes down the field at will. Of course in this situation Carolina gave up a 60 yard pass play and that was the ball game. That was one long heave by Matty there!
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
GaTechRavens wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Absolutely he made the right decision, and it showed all the way up until his safety Haruki Nakamura forgot how to play the deep ball (again).

Punter pinned them AT THE 1 YARD LINE! The defense had what, 7 sacks to that point? There should be NO WAY you allow that 60+ yard pass.

Rivera is only being criticized because they lost; that's it. Had they stopped the Falcons like they should have, nobody would be questioning this decision!


I love how he knew they'd punt to the 1 yard line.


His thought process was to punt the ball, pin them deep and make them go the length of the field. That had to be his thought process, and it worked out perfectly until his defense just choked completely.

He made the right call, no doubt in my mind about that.


Except the risk of a touchback was very much present. Then they only gain 20-25 yards.

Unless you think the chances of a 4th and 1 conversion with an elite short yardage attack were bad - which the stats completely disprove - I don't see how this is even a question.


The Atlanta defense had JUST almost forced a turnover on 3rd and short where Cam picked up the first down and it came back to bite him. Yeah, they could've gone for it and maybe have gotten it, but Atlanta's defense is very good in short yardage situations where a run is almost certain to come.

Yes, a touchback was present but look what ACTUALLY happened; the punter did his job, ST did their job, defense just choked. That happens. If they had gone for it and Cam fumbled the ball we'd all be sitting here saying "Was his decision correct" blah blah blah and most of you would be saying "LIKE OMFG PUNT IT!".


So you are scared your franchise QB won't hold onto the ball again. If he fumbles again we deserve to lose.

You can't call a game scared. And the chances of another fumble are incredibly small.

And I can safely say the people that would be complaining of not punting are the ones in here saying it was right. Not the ones saying it was wrong. And they'd be as wrong there as they are in here.


Some are assuming Cam would make it on 4th down. Even if the punt went into the end zone and Atlanta came out to the 20 it is still further away from FG range than it would have been had they gone for it and the Falcons stuffed Cam or one of the RBs for no gain. The real culprit here for the loss is the Carolina D yielding a 60 yard bomb in one play no less.
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Pugger


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 8:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
So basically because Rivera's players didn't execute...there's no blame on him? But if they HAD executed then it would have been a great call by him? Do you see the contradiction here or no?

Isn't he more at fault because he made that call knowing that his players might not be able to execute what he needed them to? Basically you're saying that he doesn't know his own personnel's strengths and weaknesses.....Sounds like bad coaching if you ask me


I put the onus of this loss completely on the players on Carolina's defense. It is indefensible to allow the Falcons to complete that pass in that situation.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
Quote:
If that's really what the percentages are, then yes I would've gone for it.


Did you not just say this 5 minutes ago??

So which is it? Because you are flip-flopping here.


And I also said that both calls are correct. There is not a wrong call here, really...

you're just saying that the decision to pin the Falcons deep and MAKE THEM beat your defense was the wrong call and going for it was the right one. There wouldn't be a discussion about this had the Panthers held them.


Except they didn't!! Isn't it crazy how that works?

He makes a call that reduces his teams odds to win by 30%....and his team loses!! Color me shocked!


You are assuming Cam converts that 4th down play. What if he doesn't? Then Atlanta is even closer to FG range than they would be had the punt gone into the end zone for a touch back.
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DrawABlank


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 9:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pugger wrote:
You are assuming Cam converts that 4th down play. What if he doesn't? Then Atlanta is even closer to FG range than they would be had the punt gone into the end zone for a touch back.


Leaving aside the chances of ATL missing the FG (as that is the same in both scenarios)

Go for it:
80% (+) chance you win the game instantly by converting
4% (1 time in 5) Falcons can't move it from ATL 45 to the CAR 35
So you win about 84% of the time by going for it

Punt:
The average starting position on a punt from there is the ATL 18.

If you are 85% sure that you can stop ATL from going 55 yards in a minute, you should punt. There's no way I'd be that confident in Carolina's D.

---

And this ignores the psychological component:

- If Rivera goes for it and succeeds, Cam is redeemed and is the hero of the game. If he fails, the coach takes the blame.

To protect your QB, you should go for it there.
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The Cryptkeeper


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 10:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cpanthers178990 wrote:



So if the Panthers had went for it on 4th down got stopped and Atlanta turns around and still wins the game, you would think that was the right call?


I'd be the first one on here defending the call.....ok, I'm busy, it might've taken me a few pages to show up.

You invest in power running, you have playmakers in the running game, and a QB who can get the job done. If you're going to lose, I can't fault losing by putting the ball in your best playmaker's hands with the game on the line in that situation. If I'm a coach, and I'm putting the game on someone's shoulders, I'd rather it be Cam than that secondary against the Falcons' exceptional passing talent.

That's what you drafted Cam for. That's why you build the O-line like you did. That's why you paid all that money to Stewart and Williams. It's so when it comes down to 4th and 1 to ice the game, you've got the personnel to get the 1 yard and ice it.

To punt in that situation would've sickened me if I were a Panthers fan- I'm a Colts guy and I still thought it was terrible. Why bother building the offense in that way in the first place if you're not going to trust them there? It's like buying a 4x4 tricked out for offroading and only using it to pick up milk on sunny days.
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cpanthers178990


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Cryptkeeper wrote:
cpanthers178990 wrote:



So if the Panthers had went for it on 4th down got stopped and Atlanta turns around and still wins the game, you would think that was the right call?


I'd be the first one on here defending the call.....ok, I'm busy, it might've taken me a few pages to show up.

You invest in power running, you have playmakers in the running game, and a QB who can get the job done. If you're going to lose, I can't fault losing by putting the ball in your best playmaker's hands with the game on the line in that situation. If I'm a coach, and I'm putting the game on someone's shoulders, I'd rather it be Cam than that secondary against the Falcons' exceptional passing talent.

That's what you drafted Cam for. That's why you build the O-line like you did. That's why you paid all that money to Stewart and Williams. It's so when it comes down to 4th and 1 to ice the game, you've got the personnel to get the 1 yard and ice it.

To punt in that situation would've sickened me if I were a Panthers fan- I'm a Colts guy and I still thought it was terrible. Why bother building the offense in that way in the first place if you're not going to trust them there? It's like buying a 4x4 tricked out for offroading and only using it to pick up milk on sunny days.





I totally get that man, and had he decided to go for it I would have backed him than too, even if we didn't make it and than lost.

I don't feel like there was a wrong call here, Under one minute left and the Falcons had 0 timeouts left(after using 4) all your D has to do is stop the pass, and they couldn't even do that.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cpanthers178990 wrote:
The Cryptkeeper wrote:
cpanthers178990 wrote:



So if the Panthers had went for it on 4th down got stopped and Atlanta turns around and still wins the game, you would think that was the right call?


I'd be the first one on here defending the call.....ok, I'm busy, it might've taken me a few pages to show up.

You invest in power running, you have playmakers in the running game, and a QB who can get the job done. If you're going to lose, I can't fault losing by putting the ball in your best playmaker's hands with the game on the line in that situation. If I'm a coach, and I'm putting the game on someone's shoulders, I'd rather it be Cam than that secondary against the Falcons' exceptional passing talent.

That's what you drafted Cam for. That's why you build the O-line like you did. That's why you paid all that money to Stewart and Williams. It's so when it comes down to 4th and 1 to ice the game, you've got the personnel to get the 1 yard and ice it.

To punt in that situation would've sickened me if I were a Panthers fan- I'm a Colts guy and I still thought it was terrible. Why bother building the offense in that way in the first place if you're not going to trust them there? It's like buying a 4x4 tricked out for offroading and only using it to pick up milk on sunny days.





I totally get that man, and had he decided to go for it I would have backed him than too, even if we didn't make it and than lost.

I don't feel like there was a wrong call here, Under one minute left and the Falcons had 0 timeouts left(after using 4) all your D has to do is stop the pass, and they couldn't even do that.


Exactly, and that's been my point this entire thread. There really wasn't a "wrong" call here because even if you do go for it and fail, at least you put the ball into Cam's hands.

If you punt it away and pin the Falcons at their 1 yard line and they beat you through the air, you just failed to execute. It's the same exact thing except either the offense fails or succeeds, or the defense fails or succeeds. Rivera put his chances on the defense not allowing the Falcons to go 70 freaking yards in under a minute with no timeouts and they blew it.

I'm sure Rivera will take this decision and the next time it comes up, Cam is going to get his shot to seal the game and we will see what happens, though. Either way, I feel like there was no wrong call because eiither call Rivera makes, the players have to execute because either call me makes, they're in a good position to win the game.
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The Cryptkeeper


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 11:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

cpanthers178990 wrote:



I totally get that man, and had he decided to go for it I would have backed him than too, even if we didn't make it and than lost.

I don't feel like there was a wrong call here, Under one minute left and the Falcons had 0 timeouts left(after using 4) all your D has to do is stop the pass, and they couldn't even do that.


That definitely is a situation where you expect your D to get a stop, so even with my little rant, it's not as though going 70 yards in that scenario is THAT probable.

Plus, given that Rivera's a defensive coach through and through for his career, I'm not surprised that's the call he made. Just frustrating to see that when I know most teams in the league would've killed to be in a position to only need 1 yard with your guys' offensive personnel.
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hudson3010


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

no

although after the punt it looked like a good decision because the ball was downed at 1 yard

however the chances of a touchback were high, we were running well and we have cam newton

huge loss that will define our season
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