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Did Ron Rivera make the correct decision against Atlanta?
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Did Ron Rivera make the right decision?
Yes
59%
 59%  [ 32 ]
No
40%
 40%  [ 22 ]
Total Votes : 54

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fretgod99


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear.
This is the problem with your argument. It didn't cost the Panthers the win. You can argue their probability of winning was higher had they gone for it, but saying it caused the loss is a rather unwarranted and large logical leap.

Bottom line, you're grumpy because you lost a bet.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Bacon, I really can't make myself more clear here, but since you can't comprehend I guess I'll just restate my arguement AGAIN for the 50th darn time on THIS page...

Ron Rivera made THE RIGHT call. Why?

HIS PLAN: Pin the Falcons deep with a punt, make them drive at the very least 50 yards (starting at the 20 with a touchack) and at the very most 70 yards (starting at the 1) to beat them with a little over a minute left and no timeouts.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: His punter pinned the team at the one (fantastic job by the punter, exactly how Rivera planned it). Then on the very next play the DB's get beat and they allow a huge gain (THIS IS NOT RIVERA'S FAULT). How do you NOT understand that part? All the coach can do is draw something up, he can't execute it, but the way he drew it up was perfect until the PLAYERS failed to execute.

But apparently I need to reiterate my point in several ways, so here, watch this and tell me how this is Ron Rivera's fault:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU5IO0BOoqM

Also, if you want to just judge the calls: Both of them would've been the right call. THE THING I AM ARGUING IS THAT ONE OF THEM WAS THE WRONG CALL! Does that make sense? Probably not, but if you don't understand that, that's not my problem.

In the end, I 100% back the decision in theory to punt the ball and make the other team's offense drive 70 yards to beat you as opposed to going for it on 4th and 1 when you just fumbled and if you fail, the other team has to go 30 yards instead of 70.

Got it?


I understand perfectly what your point in this post is.

It's just that you have been completely flip-flopping with your argument the entire time.

Both can't be the right call.

I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear. You can ignore statistics and logic all you want. Keep arguing if you want, too, because I won't be responding. There's no point in going any further with this debate. Your mind is clearly just frazzled.

I'm not surprised that you think that either call is the right call, seeing how you also have two different favorite teams.


Why can't they both be the right call? Does one of the calls HAVE to be wrong solely because it didn't work? They both seem pretty logical:

If you go for it; you can end the game right there, but you run the risk of not making it and making it easy for the offense.

If you punt it; you can make the opposing offense go twice as farther down the field but if your defense fails, you lose.

I do love your last paragraph; I must be wrong because I root for 2 teams (No, I do NOT have 2 favorite teams). Good argument!


At some point you'll realize not one person has said it was wrong because it didn't work. It's wrong because it decreases his teams chance of winning.

And yes only 1 can be right in this case. Because the decision should be what gives your team the best chance. The decision he made doesn't and is therefore wrong.

The only time where both can be right is if they are pretty much equal in terms of win probability.


Page 7, Bacon said it was wrong because the Panthers lost.

What is the percentage of teams driving down the field, starting at their own 1-yard line with no timeouts and a minute left in the game, needing a FG to win?
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fretgod99 wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear.
This is the problem with your argument. It didn't cost the Panthers the win. You can argue their probability of winning was higher had they gone for it, but saying it caused the loss is a rather unwarranted and large logical leap.

Bottom line, you're grumpy because you lost a bet.



OK. Come in here and try and skew it all you want, but bottom line is that Rivera gave his team a substantially smaller chance to win by punting it. So if you want to say that that didn't cost his team the game, then so be it.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
Here's a quick snippet from Bill Barnwell's article on Grantland.com.....He talked a bit about how Rivera's decision was the wrong one and why.....I just want people defending Rivera to read this real quick.

Quote:
To set the scene, the Panthers came within a fumble of winning this game. Cam Newton actually got the ball past the sticks on a key third-and-2 run, but fumbled backward to the point where the ball was a yard short of the sticks, setting up a fourth-and-1 on Atlanta's 44-yard line. With 1:44 on the clock and no timeouts left for the Falcons, a conversion for the Panthers would allow them to kneel three times and hold onto their hard-earned 28-27 victory. A failed conversion would give the ball to the Falcons with excellent field position, and a punt would give Atlanta the ball with inferior field position.

The "indeterminate" field position is a key bit in analyzing this decision. After the fact, the argument in favor of Rivera's call seemed to revolve around the idea that the Panthers were able to down the ball at the 1-yard line, giving Carolina the best possible punting outcome before the long drive. The problem with that logic is that you can't assume whatsoever before the play that a Panthers punt will be downed on the 1-yard line, since such a great punt is far from guaranteed. Carolina's gunner was inches away from touching the goal line, producing a touchback that would have been of little value. There's a shot of downing the ball at the 1-yard line, of course, but you can't plug it in as one of Rivera's choices. Instead, you have to take the average of all the possibilities from the punt and use that as your baseline in making the decision. ESPN Stats and Info checked that and found that a punt from the 50-yard line3 will produce an average of 31 yards, giving Atlanta the ball at their own 19-yard line.
Still wouldn't have had a problem with it had it been a touchback.

*shrug*

The problem with that counterargument is that it presumes only favoring the decision because of the result.
That's because from a statistical standpoint that is the only way you could favor the decision.
Not wholly subsumed by the need to make all my coaching decision based on statistics.
That's absurd. Every decision should be based on what gives the team the best chance to win.
I never said otherwise.


So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
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baconrad3


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
mse326 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Bacon, I really can't make myself more clear here, but since you can't comprehend I guess I'll just restate my arguement AGAIN for the 50th darn time on THIS page...

Ron Rivera made THE RIGHT call. Why?

HIS PLAN: Pin the Falcons deep with a punt, make them drive at the very least 50 yards (starting at the 20 with a touchack) and at the very most 70 yards (starting at the 1) to beat them with a little over a minute left and no timeouts.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: His punter pinned the team at the one (fantastic job by the punter, exactly how Rivera planned it). Then on the very next play the DB's get beat and they allow a huge gain (THIS IS NOT RIVERA'S FAULT). How do you NOT understand that part? All the coach can do is draw something up, he can't execute it, but the way he drew it up was perfect until the PLAYERS failed to execute.

But apparently I need to reiterate my point in several ways, so here, watch this and tell me how this is Ron Rivera's fault:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU5IO0BOoqM

Also, if you want to just judge the calls: Both of them would've been the right call. THE THING I AM ARGUING IS THAT ONE OF THEM WAS THE WRONG CALL! Does that make sense? Probably not, but if you don't understand that, that's not my problem.

In the end, I 100% back the decision in theory to punt the ball and make the other team's offense drive 70 yards to beat you as opposed to going for it on 4th and 1 when you just fumbled and if you fail, the other team has to go 30 yards instead of 70.

Got it?


I understand perfectly what your point in this post is.

It's just that you have been completely flip-flopping with your argument the entire time.

Both can't be the right call.

I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear. You can ignore statistics and logic all you want. Keep arguing if you want, too, because I won't be responding. There's no point in going any further with this debate. Your mind is clearly just frazzled.

I'm not surprised that you think that either call is the right call, seeing how you also have two different favorite teams.


Why can't they both be the right call? Does one of the calls HAVE to be wrong solely because it didn't work? They both seem pretty logical:

If you go for it; you can end the game right there, but you run the risk of not making it and making it easy for the offense.

If you punt it; you can make the opposing offense go twice as farther down the field but if your defense fails, you lose.

I do love your last paragraph; I must be wrong because I root for 2 teams (No, I do NOT have 2 favorite teams). Good argument!


At some point you'll realize not one person has said it was wrong because it didn't work. It's wrong because it decreases his teams chance of winning.

And yes only 1 can be right in this case. Because the decision should be what gives your team the best chance. The decision he made doesn't and is therefore wrong.

The only time where both can be right is if they are pretty much equal in terms of win probability.


Page 7, Bacon said it was wrong because the Panthers lost.

What is the percentage of teams driving down the field, starting at their own 1-yard line with no timeouts and a minute left in the game, needing a FG to win?


Haha, I'd love for you to show me where I said that.

*Sits back and puts hands over head waiting*
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mse326


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
mse326 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Bacon, I really can't make myself more clear here, but since you can't comprehend I guess I'll just restate my arguement AGAIN for the 50th darn time on THIS page...

Ron Rivera made THE RIGHT call. Why?

HIS PLAN: Pin the Falcons deep with a punt, make them drive at the very least 50 yards (starting at the 20 with a touchack) and at the very most 70 yards (starting at the 1) to beat them with a little over a minute left and no timeouts.

WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED: His punter pinned the team at the one (fantastic job by the punter, exactly how Rivera planned it). Then on the very next play the DB's get beat and they allow a huge gain (THIS IS NOT RIVERA'S FAULT). How do you NOT understand that part? All the coach can do is draw something up, he can't execute it, but the way he drew it up was perfect until the PLAYERS failed to execute.

But apparently I need to reiterate my point in several ways, so here, watch this and tell me how this is Ron Rivera's fault:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DU5IO0BOoqM

Also, if you want to just judge the calls: Both of them would've been the right call. THE THING I AM ARGUING IS THAT ONE OF THEM WAS THE WRONG CALL! Does that make sense? Probably not, but if you don't understand that, that's not my problem.

In the end, I 100% back the decision in theory to punt the ball and make the other team's offense drive 70 yards to beat you as opposed to going for it on 4th and 1 when you just fumbled and if you fail, the other team has to go 30 yards instead of 70.

Got it?


I understand perfectly what your point in this post is.

It's just that you have been completely flip-flopping with your argument the entire time.

Both can't be the right call.

I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear. You can ignore statistics and logic all you want. Keep arguing if you want, too, because I won't be responding. There's no point in going any further with this debate. Your mind is clearly just frazzled.

I'm not surprised that you think that either call is the right call, seeing how you also have two different favorite teams.


Why can't they both be the right call? Does one of the calls HAVE to be wrong solely because it didn't work? They both seem pretty logical:

If you go for it; you can end the game right there, but you run the risk of not making it and making it easy for the offense.

If you punt it; you can make the opposing offense go twice as farther down the field but if your defense fails, you lose.

I do love your last paragraph; I must be wrong because I root for 2 teams (No, I do NOT have 2 favorite teams). Good argument!


At some point you'll realize not one person has said it was wrong because it didn't work. It's wrong because it decreases his teams chance of winning.

And yes only 1 can be right in this case. Because the decision should be what gives your team the best chance. The decision he made doesn't and is therefore wrong.

The only time where both can be right is if they are pretty much equal in terms of win probability.


Page 7, Bacon said it was wrong because the Panthers lost.

What is the percentage of teams driving down the field, starting at their own 1-yard line with no timeouts and a minute left in the game, needing a FG to win?


Quote:
When Carolina chose to punt the ball, their odds of winning dropped from 83.5% to 57.4%, and that isn't even accounting for how good either teams were in this case.

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fretgod99


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.


But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
Page 7, Bacon said it was wrong because the Panthers lost.

What is the percentage of teams driving down the field, starting at their own 1-yard line with no timeouts and a minute left in the game, needing a FG to win?


Stop it! You can't assume that the punt would be downed at the one, anymore than you can assume the Falcons would get all the way down the field on their first play.

Also, there is no way you can argue for punting based of any percentages; the statistical evidence will be strongly in favor of going for it.

The only thing you can argue for punting is that Cam was too sad and emotional after fumbling to run as well as history suggests he should.
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fretgod99


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
baconrad3 wrote:
I am done. I really can't explain any further as to why Rivera's decision cost his team a win. It's pretty clear.
This is the problem with your argument. It didn't cost the Panthers the win. You can argue their probability of winning was higher had they gone for it, but saying it caused the loss is a rather unwarranted and large logical leap.

Bottom line, you're grumpy because you lost a bet.
OK. Come in here and try and skew it all you want, but bottom line is that Rivera gave his team a substantially smaller chance to win by punting it. So if you want to say that that didn't cost his team the game, then so be it.
I'm not skewing anything. It's a simple statement of fact.

What was more costly? The decision not to go for it or the fumble? The decision not to go or the horrendous coverage by Nakamura? Etc. Which decision was the one the cost the Panthers the game? Can't really pinpoint it because it's a ridiculous discussion.
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fretgod99


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
Didn't say you can't criticize it. Said I didn't have a problem with the decision. Bacon thinks it's the worst decision any football coach has ever made in the history of ever. I think it was a fair judgment call, whether the stats favor going for it or not.

Team neutral is irrelevant. The stats are specifically situational. The odds probably favored going for it. I don't have a problem with him punting it. That's all. That's all I've been saying the entire thread. I don't see there being a wrong or right answer in this situation and I said as much to the guy I had a conversation with about this while watching it go down live. You make a decision and count on your players to do their job, regardless of what that decision is.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not his fault his dumb secondary let a sure INT by Ryan turn into a great grab by White. It can't all be on the coaches, the players need to execute.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
Didn't say you can't criticize it. Said I didn't have a problem with the decision. Bacon thinks it's the worst decision any football coach has ever made in the history of ever. I think it was a fair judgment call, whether the stats favor going for it or not.

Team neutral is irrelevant. The stats are specifically situational. The odds probably favored going for it. I don't have a problem with him punting it. That's all. That's all I've been saying the entire thread. I don't see there being a wrong or right answer in this situation and I said as much to the guy I had a conversation with about this while watching it go down live. You make a decision and count on your players to do their job, regardless of what that decision is.


Hyperfole FTW Rolling Eyes .

It's arguably the worst coaching decision of the season. But all time? No sir. Thanks for playing though.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
Didn't say you can't criticize it. Said I didn't have a problem with the decision. Bacon thinks it's the worst decision any football coach has ever made in the history of ever. I think it was a fair judgment call, whether the stats favor going for it or not.

Team neutral is irrelevant. The stats are specifically situational. The odds probably favored going for it. I don't have a problem with him punting it. That's all. That's all I've been saying the entire thread. I don't see there being a wrong or right answer in this situation and I said as much to the guy I had a conversation with about this while watching it go down live. You make a decision and count on your players to do their job, regardless of what that decision is.


See I don't get the bolded. If the odds favor going for it then that is the only right decision.
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 02, 2012 1:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

baconrad3 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
fretgod99 wrote:
mse326 wrote:
So you aren't subsumed with making decisions based on statistics that clearly show which decision gives you a better chance of winning even though you should always make the decision that gives your team the best chance of winning?

Do you think the stats are wrong?
Wholly. Statistics are relevant. Statistics are a useful tool. Coaches also have to have a feel for their team and the game. If a coach reads a situation and thinks, despite statistical wisdom, his team has a better chance at winning because of X factor or Y variable, I don't have a problem with it.

It's a judgment call. There's no black-and-white right or wrong answer in this type of situation. Ergo, I'm not beholden to statistics.
But there is literally no basis for that here.

The stats say team neutral you have about a 25% better chance if you go for it.

The all of the strengths and weaknesses of the teams make the gap bigger.
-Panthers are better short yardage than any other team
-Falcons aren't great at defending it
-Panthers defense sucks
-Falcons have a great quick strike offense

If there is even a remotely logical reason that would shift that massive gap I'm all ears. I'm not going to give deference just because he is a HC. If we did that then we could never criticize a decision. He didn't make a reasoned decision, he made a scared decision.
Didn't say you can't criticize it. Said I didn't have a problem with the decision. Bacon thinks it's the worst decision any football coach has ever made in the history of ever. I think it was a fair judgment call, whether the stats favor going for it or not.

Team neutral is irrelevant. The stats are specifically situational. The odds probably favored going for it. I don't have a problem with him punting it. That's all. That's all I've been saying the entire thread. I don't see there being a wrong or right answer in this situation and I said as much to the guy I had a conversation with about this while watching it go down live. You make a decision and count on your players to do their job, regardless of what that decision is.
Hyperfole FTW Rolling Eyes .

It's arguably the worst coaching decision of the season. But all time? No sir. Thanks for playing though.
You're right. I totally wasn't playing that for effect. I am sufficiently chastened. I shall return to my humble abode and weep gently into my pillow, yearning for the peaceful embrace of sleep to calm my abused and fragile ego.
_________________

MrDrew wrote:
Can somebody give me a good reason there's not a giant statue to fret somewhere?
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