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How Luck enters the game. No, not Andrew.

 
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:19 pm    Post subject: How Luck enters the game. No, not Andrew. Reply with quote

Luck (randomness) is a huge factor in investment returns, irrespective of manager. “Most of the annual variation in [one’s investment] performance is due to luck, not skill,” according to California Institute of Technology professor Bradford Cornell in a view shared by all experts (Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman talks about it in this video, for example). Even more troublesome is our perfectly human tendency to attribute poor results to bad luck and good results to skill. In investing, we generally underestimate luck.

Luck is really important in football too. There is no substantive difference from a performance standpoint when a throw is tipped by a receiver and lands harmlessly on the turf, when it hits a defender who drops it, when it hits a defender who intercepts it and when it hits another receiver for a touchdown. In those instances, luck is very important to the outcome of the game. Similarly, while fumbles relate to skill from a defensive standpoint (stripping the ball effectively, for example), recovering fumbles is largely a matter of luck (for example, where and how the ball bounces).

http://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2012/09/18/luck-skill-and-jim-harbaugh/


have the Vikings benefited from luck, or been hurt by a lack thereof?

discuss.
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PurpleMugen


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not a big believer in "luck," good or bad, when it comes to competitions, or at least, even if it does play a role, I don't like to dwell on it one way or the other.

Tipped balls, for instance, usually occur because a defender got his hand in place to cause the disruption. Credit has to be given to the defender for causing said disruption, whether they had intended to or not; the play was made, bottom line. Ultimately, the team that exhibits more skill and performs better is the one that typically wins the game. Even if you do make considerations for the amount of "luck" that may have been involved at a certain point or another, there's no point in dwelling on it or even considering it for the future. Those things are out of your control. You focus instead on what you can control, and that is consistency in quality performance.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Investing, just like football, takes a significant amount of skill to be able to be more "right" than "wrong". Basically, if you have skill, you will be in a better position to take advantage of any "luck" that comes your way.

Its no secret, good teams have great players. I think "luck" really has a more significant impact on the playoff teams than anyone else. Poor teams are poor and that is not because of luck. However, good teams are good for a reason but greatness can largely be influenced by who had "luck" on their side.
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HighHopes


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Luck comes more in the form of the draft honestly. Of course its not all luck, but how many players have come in and had the physical tools but not the mental tools. I think its almost impossible to tell if a college player can do the NFL mentally.

I think the physical scouting also is a bit luck based.
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milanb


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know.

I think that the Vikings deserved to win the first game and lose the second game of the season this year.

Last year? Hmm.


  • They lost the home game against the Lions because a late hit on a kick return took them out of FG range. Then in the 2nd Lions game at Detroit the refs missed what should have been an easy facemask call on the last play. If the Vikings get that call they get one more play with the ball on the half-yard line. So yeah, I would say the Vikings were unlucky not to have won at least one of those games.
  • The Vikings needed a questionable holding call and a missed FG to beat Carolina.
  • The Vikings would probably have won easily at home against the Bears but for a couple of botched FG attempts and a freakish INT on a ball that Percy caught but popped out of his hands as he was going to the ground.


Historically you can look at a missed FG by Gary Anderson in the 1998 NFC Championship game, and a some brutal officiating in 2009, but I don't know if you can attribute both losses to bad luck.
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Last edited by milanb on Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 20, 2012 2:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HighHopes wrote:
I think Luck comes more in the form of the draft honestly. Of course its not all luck, but how many players have come in and had the physical tools but not the mental tools. I think its almost impossible to tell if a college player can do the NFL mentally.

I think the physical scouting also is a bit luck based.


It might be luck in terms of who falls to you on draft day. However, being able to consistently draft well usually reflects on the coaches being able to work with that talent and develop them into good players for their system.

Teams who have a track record of busts (look at the Lions pre-2007) have busts for a reason. The players they drafted were no doubt talented, but often, those Lions teams simply didnt have the coaches to make the most of that talent.

Many say Bill Belichick lucked into Tom Brady and often, many will say Tom Brady lucked into Bill Belichick. Maybe the Pats were lucky that they took in a head coach who failed once at the job, and were able to find a HOF QB in round 6.
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