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Kellerman


Joined: 16 May 2010
Posts: 3551
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.
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Freakout


Joined: 05 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
SteelKing728 wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I was just going of The Gnat's analysis. I think it was done over a 10 year period and receivers had the highest bust rate by far.


Yeah, but say our team's biggest weakness on draft day is WR, We need to make that pick with confidence. Being scared to make a move at WR won't get this team anywhere. Be confident in the pick, and let him play, but be patient.

As for this draft class, I obviously like Justin Hunter in the 1st, but If we can't get him (and I doubt Woods or Allen will be in our reach), I think someone like Marquees Wilson or Cordalle Patterson would be available in round 2. With our current WR situation, I think we could work them in early into the offense, and be successful.

Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't draft a receiver. I'm just saying when it comes to the first round you can't afford to miss, and this team would be better off drafting a player like Kawann Short IMO.


DT has a fairly high first round bust rate too. Especially those taken outside the top 10.


Yup and I know that I am souring on Short. I just don't see enough athletic ability that I would want out of a 4-3 UT. He is lacking that burst once he gets into the backfield. Still a good player but not really someone I would take in the first round.

Star and Hankins are the only two DT's I would take in round one.
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rpmwr19


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Joined: 23 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.
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Lil Uno


Joined: 17 Sep 2007
Posts: 7726
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.


That statement is outdated. Dating back to 2008 there are 2 or 3 legit #1 or #2 WRs to come out of those. Based on the 2008-2012 drafts, the 1st round is actually the money spot.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lil Uno wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.


That statement is outdated. Dating back to 2008 there are 2 or 3 legit #1 or #2 WRs to come out of those. Based on the 2008-2012 drafts, the 1st round is actually the money spot.

Is that a trend or mirage though? Only using four years of data vs. ten or so?
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Lil Uno


Joined: 17 Sep 2007
Posts: 7726
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Lil Uno wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.


That statement is outdated. Dating back to 2008 there are 2 or 3 legit #1 or #2 WRs to come out of those. Based on the 2008-2012 drafts, the 1st round is actually the money spot.

Is that a trend or mirage though? Only using four years of data vs. ten or so?


Valid point.

Here is the 1st and 2nd round receivers since 08.

1st Round:
Darius Heyward-Bey
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Percy Harvin
Hakeem Nicks
Kenny Britt
Demarius Thomas
Dez Bryant
A.J. Green
Julio Jones
Jonathan Baldwin

2nd Round:
Donnie Avery
Devin Thomas
Jordy Nelson
James Hardy
Eddie Royal
Jerome Simpson
Desean Jackson
Malcolm Kelly
Limas Sweed
Dexter Jackson
Brian Robiske
Mohamed Massaqoui
Arrelious Benn
Golden Tate
Torrey Smith
Greg Little
Titus Young
Randall Cobb


It could just be a mirage as the 2011 class had a solid crop of 2nd round guys, but I still put my money on the first round.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought Torrey Smith was a 1st rounder?

It is hard to argue that since 08 the 1st round is clearly better.
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Worm Guts


Joined: 22 Jan 2006
Posts: 841
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Lil Uno wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.


That statement is outdated. Dating back to 2008 there are 2 or 3 legit #1 or #2 WRs to come out of those. Based on the 2008-2012 drafts, the 1st round is actually the money spot.

Is that a trend or mirage though? Only using four years of data vs. ten or so?


Common sense would say 1st rounders should have a lower bust rate than 2nd rounders. It won't be the case every year, but I'd guess over the long term it will bear out.
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LostRoadStone


Joined: 06 Jul 2012
Posts: 1001
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
I thought Torrey Smith was a 1st rounder?

Nope. 2nd round, 58th overall.
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rpmwr19


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Joined: 23 Dec 2006
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Location: Stillwater, MN
PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Lil Uno wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Kellerman wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.


We didn't need to pick a 1st round QB either, after all Romo, Brady and Brees weren't either.

It's the same for any position. You don't need to pick any player in the 1st round, but you can bet that the most talented, the best prospects, are in the 1st round.

For all the talk of bust rate, the bust rate for any position is still the lowest in the 1st round. It's where most of the best players are found.

2nd round receivers have a lower bust rate than first rounders.


That statement is outdated. Dating back to 2008 there are 2 or 3 legit #1 or #2 WRs to come out of those. Based on the 2008-2012 drafts, the 1st round is actually the money spot.

Is that a trend or mirage though? Only using four years of data vs. ten or so?


Common sense would say 1st rounders should have a lower bust rate than 2nd rounders. It won't be the case every year, but I'd guess over the long term it will bear out.

Common sense would say that, statistics haven't.

I'm really trying to find The Gnart's analysis in which he broke down, position by position, bust rate for each position per round for an extended period of time.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LostRoadStone wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I thought Torrey Smith was a 1st rounder?

Nope. 2nd round, 58th overall.

Hmm, what a great pick ha.
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Lil Uno


Joined: 17 Sep 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
I thought Torrey Smith was a 1st rounder?

It is hard to argue that since 08 the 1st round is clearly better.


I thought he was as well, but he was 2nd rounder.

I believe scouts are just becoming more disciplined in their scouting. They are doing a great job of weeding out the overated guys and finding the sleepers. Thats why we see some of the early top prospects fall during the draft process. Jeff Fuller from this year is a good example. Commonly mocked in the Top 15 at this point last year, he ended up going undrafted.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lil Uno wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I thought Torrey Smith was a 1st rounder?

It is hard to argue that since 08 the 1st round is clearly better.


I thought he was as well, but he was 2nd rounder.

I believe scouts are just becoming more disciplined in their scouting. They are doing a great job of weeding out the overated guys and finding the sleepers. Thats why we see some of the early top prospects fall during the draft process. Jeff Fuller from this year is a good example. Commonly mocked in the Top 15 at this point last year, he ended up going undrafted.

Very, very good point.
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Worm Guts


Joined: 22 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Common sense would say that, statistics haven't.

I'm really trying to find The Gnart's analysis in which he broke down, position by position, bust rate for each position per round for an extended period of time.


I don't know if that's true or not, but I'd still expect 1st rounders to be better.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 15, 2012 9:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worm Guts wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Common sense would say that, statistics haven't.

I'm really trying to find The Gnart's analysis in which he broke down, position by position, bust rate for each position per round for an extended period of time.


I don't know if that's true or not, but I'd still expect 1st rounders to be better.


I'm not sure if I have the numbers saved anywhere, but from 1999 to 2009 (did this two years ago I think) WR was the worst position to draft in round one. And it had a large disparity because I was rating round one players are top 10 at their position versus the later rounds simply as multi-year starters, but the success rate of first round receivers during that time period was 37%, and I believe it was around 50% in round two if not higher. OT and CB I believe had the best success rate in round one, not including kicker where they was only one drafted during that time frame.
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