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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
My issues with WR is that I doubt that a WR taken 14-20 is a legit starter in the next year, maybe 2. With Peterson and Allen not getting younger, I'd want an impact starter in round 1. To me, that is DT or OF or S, maybe CB at that point.

If you are going to be a conservative, run first team on O, you need better run blocking than they are getting now, imo. And, there are some great OG in the first round.

IF they could get a legit starting WR at that point, I'd take him. But I have my doubts on that.


It is a thin WR draft class, and I know you have advocated signing Dwayne Bowe. I wouldnt mind that signing at all if it didnt hurt the team financially or hindered the ability to resign other key free agents. Might be the stop gap at WR that could benefit this team.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All y'all who don't want a high pick on an OG, how do you feel about Randle McDaniel.....sometimes you get a great player at a position you are not expecting.

Heck, I'd still deal a first+ for Bowe and Flowers. KC sucks, they need picks to start over.....
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
My issues with WR is that I doubt that a WR taken 14-20 is a legit starter in the next year, maybe 2. With Peterson and Allen not getting younger, I'd want an impact starter in round 1. To me, that is DT or OF or S, maybe CB at that point.

If you are going to be a conservative, run first team on O, you need better run blocking than they are getting now, imo. And, there are some great OG in the first round.

IF they could get a legit starting WR at that point, I'd take him. But I have my doubts on that.


Of course we're a run-first team with Jenkins and Aromashodu as outside recievers. I'd lose my mind if we pick an OG in the 1st round, talk about reaching. Btw, AP seems to be doing pretty well on those inside runs. We're ranked in the top 10 for most team rushing stats, even tied for #2 for 20+ runs.

To contrast, we're ranked 26th in yards recieving, and dead last in avg yards/reception (9.9). BTW, ranked 8th in sacks and 9th in QB hits.

The run-blocking or the pass-blocking is not the problem. The lack of talented recievers is. Jerome Simpson had 725 yards with AJ Green drawing double coverage. He currently has 50 yard in 2 starts. Kyle Rudolph is a great redzone TE, on pace to score 12 TD's, but only 550 recieving yards on the season. Outside of Harvin, who is at his best when he is used as a 'weapon' rather than a 'regular' WR, we have no real consistent playmaker, no 1,000 reciever on the roster.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And the odds of a WR taken 14+ or later being even average next year are, what? 20%?
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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
There are a lot of positions available throughout the draft. OG, DT, OLB, CB all of these positions could be argued as positions that you can find talent everywhere in the draft. you've got to use an early pick and I can envision a scenario where OG is BPA in round 2 and MN taking one. Long-term, Johnson may not be in the Vikes plans at OG. He is signed through 2013, and will be 30 when he hits free agency. If I can get a player with more upside who has more potential to be a better player, I pull the trigger. If its the 2nd round or 4th round, I am not bothered if that OG prospect is truly a good looking prospect relative to some of the other prospects available.


30 is not old for an OG. Charlie Johnson is playing at a good level for a guard, it would be wise to re-sign him so he can hold that position down for the next few years. It gives you space to spend that pick on a bigger need like WR or DT, while giving you time to find and develop a late-round prospect like Fusco.

Anyway, I've said all I wanted to say, I feel we agree on most points, but the bottom line for me is that I just wouldn't feel comfortable spending a 2nd on a position that is pretty solid in my mind. While it would be a justifiable use, I feel there are better uses available for that pick.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
And the odds of a WR taken 14+ or later being even average next year are, what? 20%?


Just to back you up a little WR's have the highest bust rate in the first round out of any position. So unless you're absolutely sure about the kid I'd pass on a first round receiver.
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Last edited by rpmwr19 on Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

PrplChilPill wrote:
And the odds of a WR taken 14+ or later being even average next year are, what? 20%?


So you're saying there's an 80% chance that a reciever taken past #14 overall is worse than average? Sorry, but that's nonsense.

1st round: Allen, Hunter, Woods

1st-2nd round: Terrance Williams, Marquess Wilson, Cordarrelle Patterson

I get that WR is a boom/bust type of position, all that means is that you have to scout well and make the right pick.
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
PrplChilPill wrote:
And the odds of a WR taken 14+ or later being even average next year are, what? 20%?


Just to back you up a little WR's have the highest bust rate in the first round out of any position. So unless you're absolutely sure about the kid I'd pass on a first round receiver.


We'll eventually need some guys to throw it to. Can't keep putting off the position because of a high bust rate, that way we'll never get a WR.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kellerman wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
There are a lot of positions available throughout the draft. OG, DT, OLB, CB all of these positions could be argued as positions that you can find talent everywhere in the draft. you've got to use an early pick and I can envision a scenario where OG is BPA in round 2 and MN taking one. Long-term, Johnson may not be in the Vikes plans at OG. He is signed through 2013, and will be 30 when he hits free agency. If I can get a player with more upside who has more potential to be a better player, I pull the trigger. If its the 2nd round or 4th round, I am not bothered if that OG prospect is truly a good looking prospect relative to some of the other prospects available.


30 is not old for an OG. Charlie Johnson is playing at a good level for a guard, it would be wise to re-sign him so he can hold that position down for the next few years. It gives you space to spend that pick on a bigger need like WR or DT, while giving you time to find and develop a late-round prospect like Fusco.

Anyway, I've said all I wanted to say, I feel we agree on most points, but the bottom line for me is that I just wouldn't feel comfortable spending a 2nd on a position that is pretty solid in my mind. While it would be a justifiable use, I feel there are better uses available for that pick.


I do agree, it would be wise to resign Johnson if there isnt another alternative. This goes back to finding a more immediate level replacement, you dont necessarily have to resign Johnson when his deal is up. Johnson would probably command about $4M on a second contract, so if you can get a good looking draft prospect at a 1/4 of that salary, that isnt a bad deal and would set the team well financially.

You give Loadholt and Johnson big new extensions, in addition to Sullivan and Kalil commanding a lot of money, that is a alot of salary being invested into the Oline. Having a more immediate level prospect might allow the Vikes to let Johnson walk and save a decent amount of cap space in the process.
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Kellerman


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BTW, here's a list of wide recievers taken in the 1st round from 06 to 11 (last 5 drafts not counting this year).

Santonio Holmes
Calvin Johnson
Ted Ginn Jr.
Dwayne Bowe
Robert Meachem
Craig "Buster" Davis
Anthony Gonzalez
Darius Heyward-Bey
Michael Crabtree
Jeremy Maclin
Percy Harvin
Kenny Britt
Demaryius Thomas
Dez Bryant
AJ Green
Julio Jones

Jonathan Baldwin

I count 9 good to great starters, and 3 guys the jury is still out on (Bryant, Crabtree, Baldwin). Only 5 real busts.

That would be a 29% bust rate, and a hit rate of 53%, that's pretty much the norm for 1st round picks (a 50% hit rate that is). Just sayin' that wide-recievers in the 1st round have been working out pretty well recently.

Stay away from small guys with only one tool (speed) and you're fine.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Oct 13, 2012 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was just going of The Gnat's analysis. I think it was done over a 10 year period and receivers had the highest bust rate by far.
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PrplChilPill


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gotta cut three of those guys out, as they were taken in the top 10. But the stats are not bad. 6 good out of 17.
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SteelKing728


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
I was just going of The Gnat's analysis. I think it was done over a 10 year period and receivers had the highest bust rate by far.


Yeah, but say our team's biggest weakness on draft day is WR, We need to make that pick with confidence. Being scared to make a move at WR won't get this team anywhere. Be confident in the pick, and let him play, but be patient.

As for this draft class, I obviously like Justin Hunter in the 1st, but If we can't get him (and I doubt Woods or Allen will be in our reach), I think someone like Marquees Wilson or Cordalle Patterson would be available in round 2. With our current WR situation, I think we could work them in early into the offense, and be successful.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SteelKing728 wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I was just going of The Gnat's analysis. I think it was done over a 10 year period and receivers had the highest bust rate by far.


Yeah, but say our team's biggest weakness on draft day is WR, We need to make that pick with confidence. Being scared to make a move at WR won't get this team anywhere. Be confident in the pick, and let him play, but be patient.

As for this draft class, I obviously like Justin Hunter in the 1st, but If we can't get him (and I doubt Woods or Allen will be in our reach), I think someone like Marquees Wilson or Cordalle Patterson would be available in round 2. With our current WR situation, I think we could work them in early into the offense, and be successful.

Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't draft a receiver. I'm just saying when it comes to the first round you can't afford to miss, and this team would be better off drafting a player like Kawann Short IMO.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Oct 14, 2012 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
SteelKing728 wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
I was just going of The Gnat's analysis. I think it was done over a 10 year period and receivers had the highest bust rate by far.


Yeah, but say our team's biggest weakness on draft day is WR, We need to make that pick with confidence. Being scared to make a move at WR won't get this team anywhere. Be confident in the pick, and let him play, but be patient.

As for this draft class, I obviously like Justin Hunter in the 1st, but If we can't get him (and I doubt Woods or Allen will be in our reach), I think someone like Marquees Wilson or Cordalle Patterson would be available in round 2. With our current WR situation, I think we could work them in early into the offense, and be successful.

Don't need to pick a first round receiver. Packers don't have one, Bears don't have one, and neither do the Saints.

I'm not saying that we shouldn't draft a receiver. I'm just saying when it comes to the first round you can't afford to miss, and this team would be better off drafting a player like Kawann Short IMO.


DT has a fairly high first round bust rate too. Especially those taken outside the top 10.
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