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Northland
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
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Location: Ajax, Ontario
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 Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 9:48 am Post subject: The Arugument for A Balanced Offense |
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Check out the article by Bob Sturm. Uses a benchmark of 60 offensive plays a game and then goes further to see what our record is when we run the ball 25 times or more vs. running the ball less than 25 times. In other words what is our record with a balanced attack vs. an unbalanced one where we abandon our game plan? Shocking results.
"In fact, since the 2008 season began, they have a 1-19 record in games like Sunday, when they fall out of balance even less dramatically. "
'"Meanwhile, let's run the numbers again. This time, we don't change the numbers, we simply change the equations on the "greater than" to "less than". What are the results when the Cowboys stay balanced, force the defense to respect both threats, and run at least 25 times, while passing fewer than 35 times? Click here to see that list of games."
"22-3."
"Whoa. 1-19 (5% win percentage) versus 22-3 (88%). I think we may have some sort of theory here on how the Cowboys are most effective as an offense."
"But, when Witten and Dez Bryant are playing so poorly, and Romo is under duress, I just have a hard time understanding why Murray wasn't part of every single possession until the game was out of reach. He seemed to be a perfect remedy for these out of balance games, but on Sunday, his performance was rather limited."
http://sturminator.blogspot.ca/
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Rtnldave
Joined: 10 Feb 2008
Posts: 2344
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 11:29 am Post subject: |
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Well, it is week 2. Perhaps J.G. is still finding his groove as a coach. Granted Romo was under pressure a lot and Seattle was stuffing the run on us. But, it IS only week 2.
I posted a thread about not recognizing football anymore that uses a similar "stats to wins" ratio. I just do not understand the game anymore and how some teams are winning in spite of out-of-balance play calling, (see Iggles vs. Browns) winning the turnover battle favors the losing team!? You know, stuff like that.
But again, it is only week 2. I know every game counts but come on, no super bowl was won or lost in week 2 of September. |
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TheStarStillShines
Joined: 12 Oct 2004
Posts: 8260
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:04 pm Post subject: |
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Sturm must have been reading this forum because some of us were having this exact same debate and I used similar parameters (Murray with 20+ carries, Romo throwing more or less than 35 times).
And I don't buy that Garrett is trying to find his groove. He's been the offensive coordinator of this team for 5 years now. There's no excuse for him to constantly be so inconsistent with his playcalling and to constantly abandon the run early. The Seahawks weren't exactly stuffing the run, but rather the Boys never stayed with the running game. Neither the OL nor Murray were able to get into any type of rhythm with the ground attack.
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mco65
Joined: 04 Feb 2011
Posts: 534
Location: US
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 12:50 pm Post subject: |
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I don't think the formula is that simple. Many times a team will pass the ball 3/4 of the time to build a lead and then balance the stat line out by running the 10 times in a row late in the game. The stat line then shows 50/50 runs to pass but that doesn't really tell the story.
I saw very little difference in the Cowboys play calling from the Giants game to the Seahawks game up and until the midway point of the 3rd qtr.. I bet if you took the first 3 qtrs of the first 2 games and looked at the run/pass ratio the numbers would be closer than you think. It was not until the Cowboys fell 2 scores behind that they were forced to pass the ball almost everytime which skews the final stats..
Then we scream, why didn't run more! Well, because we got behind and couldn't run the ball and catch up at the same time.. |
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Texas_OutLaw7
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
Posts: 19393
Location: Cowboys Forum ROH Class of '12
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:11 pm Post subject: |
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| mco65 wrote: | I don't think the formula is that simple. Many times a team will pass the ball 3/4 of the time to build a lead and then balance the stat line out by running the 10 times in a row late in the game. The stat line then shows 50/50 runs to pass but that doesn't really tell the story.
I saw very little difference in the Cowboys play calling from the Giants game to the Seahawks game up and until the midway point of the 3rd qtr.. I bet if you took the first 3 qtrs of the first 2 games and looked at the run/pass ratio the numbers would be closer than you think. It was not until the Cowboys fell 2 scores behind that they were forced to pass the ball almost everytime which skews the final stats..
Then we scream, why didn't run more! Well, because we got behind and couldn't run the ball and catch up at the same time.. |
This was pretty much what I was going to articulate.
In the Seahawks game we didn't run the ball once in the 4th. Because we were obviously losing. We will rush more when we score more. Late games we will run a ton, and it will be effective as well. Just look at the Giants game. We had under 30 rushing yards in the 1st half and tripled it in the 2nd half.
This team is predicated upon passing to open up the run. Spread the defense out. Let them get worn out. And then go for the KO.
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TheStarStillShines
Joined: 12 Oct 2004
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:13 pm Post subject: |
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Vs. NYG
- 1st Quarter - 4 run, 6 pass
- 2nd Quarter - 5 run, 11 pass (I counted Romo's scramble as a passing play)
- 3rd Quarter - 5 run, 11 pass (counted Romo's scramble as a passing play)
- 4th Quarter - 10 run, 5 pass (although 3 running plays were kneel downs)
Total - 24 run, 33 pass
Vs. SEA
- 1st Quarter - 6 run, 15 pass (counted Romo's scramble as a passing play, and one running play was an end-around to Ogletree)
- 2nd Quarter - 5 run, 13 pass (1 run was a kneel down)
- 3rd Quarter - 4 run, 9 pass
- 4th Quarter - 0 run, 6 pass
Total - 15 runs, 43 passes
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TheStarStillShines
Joined: 12 Oct 2004
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:22 pm Post subject: |
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I don't think anyone expects a 1:1 run-pass ratio, but rather something closer to 40-60. But early in the Seahawks game, the ratio was above 1:2 and close to 1:3.
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Texas_OutLaw7
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
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Location: Cowboys Forum ROH Class of '12
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:24 pm Post subject: |
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| TheStarStillShines wrote: | | I don't think anyone expects a 1:1 run-pass ratio, but rather something closer to 40-60. But early in the Seahawks game, the ratio was above 1:2 and close to 1:3. |
I am good with a 1:2 ration run to pass in the first half. Hell the first QTs.
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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 1:48 pm Post subject: |
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Correlation =/= Causation
We don't win BECAUSE we run the ball 20+ times
We run the ball 20+ times because were winning
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CowboysTilIDie
Joined: 09 Jan 2012
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Location: Amarillo, TX
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:17 pm Post subject: |
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Interesting little tidbit from Todd Archer: http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys
| Quote: | | ** A lot of times when the Cowboys lose, people gripe about Garrett getting away from the run. The Cowboys ran it only 14 times (not including two Romo plays). They only ran 19 plays in the second half, so it’s difficult to run it when you don’t have it. What about after the Seahawks made it 20-7? DeMarco Murray got the ball on three of the first four plays and then the drive broke down. On first-and-10 from the Dallas 47, guard Nate Livings was beat quickly up the middle by Chris Clemons, who forced an early throw to the flat to Felix Jones, who was dropped for a 5-yard loss by K.J. Wright. On second down, Tyron Smith had a false start. Do you run it on second-and-20? Third-and-20? The next time the offense got the ball back, it was 27-7 with 7:51 to play. Of the Cowboys' 24 first-down plays vs. Seattle, 18 were pass plays, including the final three in garbage time. The six first-down running plays gained 14 yards. Should Garrett’s abandonment of the running game be boiled down to the one play that lost 5 yards on a pass to Jones? |
Makes some good points in that paragraph about the situations the offense was put in that basically disabled Garretts' ability to call a run play. Not excusing the lack of it but its a reason nontheless.
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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 41474
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 2:21 pm Post subject: |
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| CowboysTilIDie wrote: | Interesting little tidbit from Todd Archer: http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/cowboys
| Quote: | | ** A lot of times when the Cowboys lose, people gripe about Garrett getting away from the run. The Cowboys ran it only 14 times (not including two Romo plays). They only ran 19 plays in the second half, so it’s difficult to run it when you don’t have it. What about after the Seahawks made it 20-7? DeMarco Murray got the ball on three of the first four plays and then the drive broke down. On first-and-10 from the Dallas 47, guard Nate Livings was beat quickly up the middle by Chris Clemons, who forced an early throw to the flat to Felix Jones, who was dropped for a 5-yard loss by K.J. Wright. On second down, Tyron Smith had a false start. Do you run it on second-and-20? Third-and-20? The next time the offense got the ball back, it was 27-7 with 7:51 to play. Of the Cowboys' 24 first-down plays vs. Seattle, 18 were pass plays, including the final three in garbage time. The six first-down running plays gained 14 yards. Should Garrett’s abandonment of the running game be boiled down to the one play that lost 5 yards on a pass to Jones? |
Makes some good points in that paragraph about the situations the offense was put in that basically disabled Garretts' ability to call a run play. Not excusing the lack of it but its a reason nontheless. |
Not a big Archer fan but he's 100% on this one
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Northland
Joined: 10 Jan 2006
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Location: Ajax, Ontario
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:09 pm Post subject: |
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I think it is not so much what the league is doing, i.e. it is a passing game now as much as it is utilizing your personnel to their fullest advantage. Have good players and executing your game plan, whether it is pass or run focussed and good things should happen.
I look at Murray and think we have a runner who is capable of 20-25 touches a game and who will be very physical and punishing when he runs. That wears down a defense.
Lord knows I have expressed my concerns over the state of our offensive line both last year and this year in a sarcastic, cynical, and frustrated tone. I'm not going on another O Line rant. It's tired. But here is some more reality from last year. With a suspect O Line and a healthy fullback in Fiammetta we ran the ball very well. See some quotes from the attached article:
"In the four games that the fullback was the lead blocker for Murray, the running game gained an average of 145 yards in four games, for 6.5 yards per carry during that span.
"Without Fiammetta over the last 3 games, the running game has gained just 83 yards per game, and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry."
Some of the run success last year could be due to the opponent. But the numbers are impressive. In Vickers we have a FB who is capable of being this year's Fiammetta. He was signed for that wasn't he? If Vickers can lead block we could have the same positive running game that we had last year. That will no doubt open things up for the passing game. If we make life easier for Romo we stand a better chance of success.
All is not lost but it will boil down to gameplan, executing said gameplan, and staying the course barring something extreme.
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/12/06/cowboys-running-game-will-get-boost-with-fiammettas-return/#6ma4Cdi0OUrgS2cd.99
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Texas_OutLaw7
Joined: 27 Mar 2005
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:29 pm Post subject: |
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| Northland wrote: | I think it is not so much what the league is doing, i.e. it is a passing game now as much as it is utilizing your personnel to their fullest advantage. Have good players and executing your game plan, whether it is pass or run focussed and good things should happen.
I look at Murray and think we have a runner who is capable of 20-25 touches a game and who will be very physical and punishing when he runs. That wears down a defense.
Lord knows I have expressed my concerns over the state of our offensive line both last year and this year in a sarcastic, cynical, and frustrated tone. I'm not going on another O Line rant. It's tired. But here is some more reality from last year. With a suspect O Line and a healthy fullback in Fiammetta we ran the ball very well. See some quotes from the attached article:
"In the four games that the fullback was the lead blocker for Murray, the running game gained an average of 145 yards in four games, for 6.5 yards per carry during that span.
"Without Fiammetta over the last 3 games, the running game has gained just 83 yards per game, and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry."
Some of the run success last year could be due to the opponent. But the numbers are impressive. In Vickers we have a FB who is capable of being this year's Fiammetta. He was signed for that wasn't he? If Vickers can lead block we could have the same positive running game that we had last year. That will no doubt open things up for the passing game. If we make life easier for Romo we stand a better chance of success.
All is not lost but it will boil down to gameplan, executing said gameplan, and staying the course barring something extreme.
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/12/06/cowboys-running-game-will-get-boost-with-fiammettas-return/#6ma4Cdi0OUrgS2cd.99 |
Fundamentally, I would love us to be a ground-and-pound team. Circa the 90's. But we are not. That's not our identity. We can have great success rushing. We can impose our will rushing. But our identity comes through the passing game. As that goes, so does the offense.
Believe me, I was one of the principle supporters of why Fiammetta was valuable. I was really excited about vickers (and I still am). But this team to be successful needs to pass to open up the run.
We have very athletic offensive linemen. Tire out the defense and then make them run around trying to stop our running game. We will gash them.
We should play to our strengths.
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The price of progress is trusting the process.
Heart. Leadership. Passion. Will. |
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be WARE94
Joined: 22 Nov 2011
Posts: 1237
Location: Philadelphia
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:47 pm Post subject: |
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| Northland wrote: | I think it is not so much what the league is doing, i.e. it is a passing game now as much as it is utilizing your personnel to their fullest advantage. Have good players and executing your game plan, whether it is pass or run focussed and good things should happen.
I look at Murray and think we have a runner who is capable of 20-25 touches a game and who will be very physical and punishing when he runs. That wears down a defense.
Lord knows I have expressed my concerns over the state of our offensive line both last year and this year in a sarcastic, cynical, and frustrated tone. I'm not going on another O Line rant. It's tired. But here is some more reality from last year. With a suspect O Line and a healthy fullback in Fiammetta we ran the ball very well. See some quotes from the attached article:
"In the four games that the fullback was the lead blocker for Murray, the running game gained an average of 145 yards in four games, for 6.5 yards per carry during that span.
"Without Fiammetta over the last 3 games, the running game has gained just 83 yards per game, and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry."
Some of the run success last year could be due to the opponent. But the numbers are impressive. In Vickers we have a FB who is capable of being this year's Fiammetta. He was signed for that wasn't he? If Vickers can lead block we could have the same positive running game that we had last year. That will no doubt open things up for the passing game. If we make life easier for Romo we stand a better chance of success.
All is not lost but it will boil down to gameplan, executing said gameplan, and staying the course barring something extreme.
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/12/06/cowboys-running-game-will-get-boost-with-fiammettas-return/#6ma4Cdi0OUrgS2cd.99 |
didn't catch much of the game before the 4th quarter......did we get creative at all with the play calling? .....i know i am going completely off the subject but i enjoyed the tight end screen to philips last year.....i like little wrinkles like that......also.....do we even do play action anymore?
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[quote="Tzimisce"]Was Romo playing sarcastaball? | Plat wrote: | | "]i swear this guy be trolling |
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CowboysTilIDie
Joined: 09 Jan 2012
Posts: 2269
Location: Amarillo, TX
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| Posted: Tue Sep 18, 2012 3:51 pm Post subject: |
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| be WARE94 wrote: | | Northland wrote: | I think it is not so much what the league is doing, i.e. it is a passing game now as much as it is utilizing your personnel to their fullest advantage. Have good players and executing your game plan, whether it is pass or run focussed and good things should happen.
I look at Murray and think we have a runner who is capable of 20-25 touches a game and who will be very physical and punishing when he runs. That wears down a defense.
Lord knows I have expressed my concerns over the state of our offensive line both last year and this year in a sarcastic, cynical, and frustrated tone. I'm not going on another O Line rant. It's tired. But here is some more reality from last year. With a suspect O Line and a healthy fullback in Fiammetta we ran the ball very well. See some quotes from the attached article:
"In the four games that the fullback was the lead blocker for Murray, the running game gained an average of 145 yards in four games, for 6.5 yards per carry during that span.
"Without Fiammetta over the last 3 games, the running game has gained just 83 yards per game, and is only averaging 3.4 yards per carry."
Some of the run success last year could be due to the opponent. But the numbers are impressive. In Vickers we have a FB who is capable of being this year's Fiammetta. He was signed for that wasn't he? If Vickers can lead block we could have the same positive running game that we had last year. That will no doubt open things up for the passing game. If we make life easier for Romo we stand a better chance of success.
All is not lost but it will boil down to gameplan, executing said gameplan, and staying the course barring something extreme.
Read more at http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/12/06/cowboys-running-game-will-get-boost-with-fiammettas-return/#6ma4Cdi0OUrgS2cd.99 |
didn't catch much of the game before the 4th quarter......did we get creative at all with the play calling? .....i know i am going completely off the subject but i enjoyed the tight end screen to philips last year.....i like little wrinkles like that......also.....do we even do play action anymore? |
No, they were not creative at all.
And so far in 2012 we have ran FOUR play action passes. FOUR. Those four passes have totaled 40 yards and 1 TD.
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