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MaddHatter


Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:46 pm    Post subject: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??
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Last edited by MaddHatter on Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
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nugpimpen


Joined: 18 Feb 2006
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Location: 10 Miles South of Cleveland
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:05 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?


I noticed you guys are 3 point favs only. After the way you played in NY, i'm betting big on you.
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MaddHatter


Joined: 29 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm not really worried about who it is as much as the swing...

67% favorite for Boys but if Lynch gets 50yds 59% Hawks

That's a 26pt swing on something I almost guarantee will happen. If it was 150yds then sure, I see the swing but what did they have him rushing for at 67% Dallas?
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El ramster


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place.
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I'm beginning to like the rg3 trade
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MaddHatter


Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 44706
Location: ROH Class of 14
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

El ramster wrote:
Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place.


See my above post
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nugpimpen


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

El ramster wrote:
Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place.


Didn't think about that
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SWATcha


Joined: 10 Sep 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

El ramster wrote:
Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place.


So does the Saints D, especially Tracy Porter Laughing
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:41 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??


I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.

More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?

The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.
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El ramster


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:45 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??


I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.

More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?

The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.



But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out.
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mozwanted wrote:
I'm beginning to like the rg3 trade
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MaddHatter


Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 44706
Location: ROH Class of 14
PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:47 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??


I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.

More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?

The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.


I agree - like the state that the Boys are 6-0 when Murray gets 20 carries but vs the Giants I think he had 3 carries for 10yds Q1 and 5 for 10yds in Q2. Another 2 carries in Q3 before adding The other 10 carries in our last two drives when trying to kill the clock.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:56 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

El ramster wrote:
sp6488 wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??


I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.

More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?

The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.



But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out.


How does that counter what I'm saying at all? I essentially say this in my post (see bolded)...
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El ramster


Joined: 13 May 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 4:01 pm    Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
El ramster wrote:
sp6488 wrote:
MaddHatter wrote:
Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?

Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing

Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?

So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??


I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.

More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?

The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.



But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out.


How does that counter what I'm saying at all? I essentially say this in my post (see bolded)...


Laughing Well then cheers.
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mozwanted wrote:
I'm beginning to like the rg3 trade
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El ramster


Joined: 13 May 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So was this right or wrong? too lazy to be looking at the #'s..

But I was right Cool
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mozwanted wrote:
I'm beginning to like the rg3 trade
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