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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 41594
Location: Dallas, TX
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 Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 2:46 pm Post subject: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%??
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Ware Stat Tracker: 27 Pressures, 9 Hits, 10 sacks, 4 FF, 7 TFL (thru 8 games)
Last edited by MaddHatter on Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:17 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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nugpimpen
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 12554
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:05 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right? |
I noticed you guys are 3 point favs only. After the way you played in NY, i'm betting big on you.
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| simonwayne wrote: | | I am the hero the basketball forum needs. Just not the hero that everybody wants right now, and thats okay. |
RIP |
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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 41594
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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I'm not really worried about who it is as much as the swing...
67% favorite for Boys but if Lynch gets 50yds 59% Hawks
That's a 26pt swing on something I almost guarantee will happen. If it was 150yds then sure, I see the swing but what did they have him rushing for at 67% Dallas?
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El ramster
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 25943
Location: Sam Bradfords Bed!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:12 pm Post subject: |
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Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place.
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| Dus10 wrote: | | Note to self: Do not lose a sig bet to Rammy. |
| Mossburg wrote: | | Spurs D to Pacers D is feathers to razor blades. |
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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 41594
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| El ramster wrote: | Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place. |
See my above post
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Ware Stat Tracker: 27 Pressures, 9 Hits, 10 sacks, 4 FF, 7 TFL (thru 8 games) |
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nugpimpen
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 12554
Location: Cleveland, Ohio
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:13 pm Post subject: |
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| El ramster wrote: | Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place. |
Didn't think about that
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| simonwayne wrote: | | I am the hero the basketball forum needs. Just not the hero that everybody wants right now, and thats okay. |
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SWATcha
Joined: 10 Sep 2008
Posts: 1596
Location: Sacto, CA.
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:16 pm Post subject: |
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| El ramster wrote: | Seattle is very hard to beat at home.. Very Very hard.
Romo has Nightmares of that place. |
So does the Saints D, especially Tracy Porter 
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sp6488
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 6262
Location: MD
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%?? |
I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.
More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?
The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis.
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| Tzimisce wrote: | I'm sorry you're drowning in a sea of delusion.
I won't be sorry when the Ravens finish 8-8. |
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El ramster
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 25943
Location: Sam Bradfords Bed!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:45 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| sp6488 wrote: | | MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%?? |
I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.
More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?
The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis. |
But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out.
_________________
| Dus10 wrote: | | Note to self: Do not lose a sig bet to Rammy. |
| Mossburg wrote: | | Spurs D to Pacers D is feathers to razor blades. |
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MaddHatter
Joined: 29 Nov 2006
Posts: 41594
Location: Dallas, TX
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:47 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| sp6488 wrote: | | MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%?? |
I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.
More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?
The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis. |
I agree - like the state that the Boys are 6-0 when Murray gets 20 carries but vs the Giants I think he had 3 carries for 10yds Q1 and 5 for 10yds in Q2. Another 2 carries in Q3 before adding The other 10 carries in our last two drives when trying to kill the clock.
_________________
Ware Stat Tracker: 27 Pressures, 9 Hits, 10 sacks, 4 FF, 7 TFL (thru 8 games) |
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sp6488
Joined: 14 Mar 2005
Posts: 6262
Location: MD
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 3:56 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| El ramster wrote: | | sp6488 wrote: | | MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%?? |
I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.
More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?
The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis. |
But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out. |
How does that counter what I'm saying at all? I essentially say this in my post (see bolded)...
_________________
| Tzimisce wrote: | I'm sorry you're drowning in a sea of delusion.
I won't be sorry when the Ravens finish 8-8. |
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El ramster
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 25943
Location: Sam Bradfords Bed!
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| Posted: Wed Sep 12, 2012 4:01 pm Post subject: Re: IBM Countdown Daily Analytics |
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| sp6488 wrote: | | El ramster wrote: | | sp6488 wrote: | | MaddHatter wrote: | Anyone catch some of the crazy Accuscore numbers they have?
Cowboys 67% favorite vs Seattle
But...
Seattle 59% favorite if Lynch gets 50yds rushing
Well we know he will, so that's basically saying Seattle is favored - right?
So why a 26pt swing over 50yds rushing? What did they think he'd rush for at 67%?? |
I'm not sure necessarily how they factor this in, but my thought about this analytic and citing of rushing stats in general is that you have a cause-effect issue. A lot of teams have very good records when they rush 25+ times, even better with 30+. It's not that many carries bode well (i.e. lets try to get as many carries as possible), moreso that it indicates that a team is running down clock (already winning) and also sustaining drives, whether that be running or passing for the majority of the yards. Just a little thing that gets me.
More specific to this question, there are 16 games in which Lynch has posted 50 rushing yards for Seattle. In those games, they are 9-7. So, maybe they are basing it on that?
The problem with datamining/analytics in football is that there are some very loose correlations between a lot of stats and victory. Much of the time, more passing yards mean a team is losing (just one of numerous examples). Some stats can be effective for prediction (i.e. in baseball, most teams that have 20 hits in a game win), but in general, especially in football it's very hard to do this sort of analysis. |
But rushing Attmps can be skewd though. It doesn't always indicate that a team has a power running game or a great one per say. When I see that I think one thing for certain teams.. Most teams run a lot more trying to milk the clock. They have a 10+ lead trying to grind it out. |
How does that counter what I'm saying at all? I essentially say this in my post (see bolded)... |
Well then cheers.
_________________
| Dus10 wrote: | | Note to self: Do not lose a sig bet to Rammy. |
| Mossburg wrote: | | Spurs D to Pacers D is feathers to razor blades. |
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El ramster
Joined: 13 May 2008
Posts: 25943
Location: Sam Bradfords Bed!
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| Posted: Sun Sep 16, 2012 10:40 pm Post subject: |
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So was this right or wrong? too lazy to be looking at the #'s..
But I was right 
_________________
| Dus10 wrote: | | Note to self: Do not lose a sig bet to Rammy. |
| Mossburg wrote: | | Spurs D to Pacers D is feathers to razor blades. |
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