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amazingandre


Joined: 16 Dec 2007
Posts: 13921
Location: Elkhorn, WI
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:27 pm    Post subject: General off-season plans Reply with quote

First off I am using overthecap.com to get my numbers and to create cap space. According to them after all our free agents to be come off the books we will 9.145 million in cap space.

Cuts:

Matt Schaub - 4 million saved
Owen Daniels - 4.5 million saved (as much as I prefer to keep him, you just save a lot of money and he is injured often plus not that good of a blocker)
Brice McCain - 850 k saved
Jon Weeks - 666 k saved
Cody White - 500 k saved


Extend and save:

Daniel Manning - If done right you can save about 1.5 million this season. Give him a 6 million dollar bonus over 3 years and vet minimum this season. Increase the salary the last 2 years (3.5 -4.5 per season)


That gives us 21.3 Million.

Sign Antonio Smith for 3 years. 3 million signing bonus, 9 million over 3 seasons (2.5, 3, 3.5)

That brings us down to 21.3 - (1+2.5) 17.8 million

I would do whatever it took to fill right tackle via free agency and I prefer a great player like Michael Oher. I would do 4 years 17 million (1, 3, 5, Cool. and a 4 million bonus. 2 million this season against the cap.
That makes him the 7th higher paid RT in the league.

That brings us down to 17.8 - (1+1) 15.8 million

I think we have to resign Wade Smith based on the depth and I think he will be a viable cheap option. I think we could do a similar deal as last time, but less years. Say 3 years 8 million. (1, 3, 4) 1.5 million bonus.
I would have no intention of keeping him the third year, but its not overly priced if we do.

That brings us to 15.8 - (1 + 1.5) 13.3

That will solidify our oline (Brown, Smith, Myers, Brooks, Oher). We still have great skill players, but QB and TE are needs. Plus we need a depth along the oline.

For defense I would prefer to sign a free agent corner. I don't know who, and I am sure it won't be a great player, but someone who can step in and play the slot since we axed McCain. Battle with Harris.
I think that will cost us about 3 million for the first year.

That leaves us 10.3 million left.

Our defense (assuming we stay 3-4) looks like this

Smith, free agent?, Watt
Mercilus, ?, Cushing, Reed
JJo, Manning, Swearinger, Jackson (a new corner in the slot)

We still have money for a pass rusher or inside line backer. Again, I would like a bigger NT in free agency, but not sure who. I do know we have money to get someone if we want. I think we can get a good linebacker in the draft.
It seems easier to have success right away as a linebacker compared to NT.

This leaves QB, TE, ILB, pass rusher, NT as our biggest needs (although you can replace one of those in free agency) heading into the draft.

Although I am not 100% in love with Teddy, I think we have to take him. This draft went from being deep in qbs to being weak. Teddy is the best and you have to grab him.

Fill in your needs with the draft and hope a new coaching staff improves our team. I think they will, they can coach up our talent and the new additions will improve our team too.
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texandominance


Joined: 22 Sep 2007
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Location: Duluth, Mn
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cutting Schaub after June 1st leaves gives us 11 million this next year instead of 4 million
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texandominance


Joined: 22 Sep 2007
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Location: Duluth, Mn
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we keep him on the roster next year because a $4 million gain for cutting him is not as beneficial as having a veteran on the roster that can step in and win a game if we need and also mentor a young QB.

Cutting Case will save us half a mil and cutting Yates will save use 600k. I think it's a much better option to cut Yates and keep Schaub. But I'm probably the small minority.

There is just too much dead money in cutting a QB after you gave him a big contract.
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dsorc


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
Posts: 2170
Location: St. Louis
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 11:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While I understand the value of keeping Schaub as the veteran mentor, it's just not worth it money wise. You can find a vet mentor QB for close to league minimum. If you think Schaub is your backup, its hard to justify paying him 15M. It's 4M saving next year plus 17M the year after.

As for the other moves in andre's offseason plan. Not sure about the rest o the cuts. If we cut OD, we have no starting TE since Graham is a FA. McCain, Weeks, and White are all minor savings. All could lose their jobs in camp but not sure they're straight up cuts. Keep in mind, minimum salary for a rookie is 420k counteracting these small savings. Somebody has to take the roster spot of the cut player.

I like the idea of extending Manning to try to reduce his cap hit and I would love to re-sign Antonio Smith. I think Antonio will get closer to the 5 million Justin Smith got and maybe even more. I absolutely love the idea of targeting RT in FA. Good crop of OTs and RTs are relatively cheap. I would not re-sign Wade Smith as he seems to be slowing down. I would much rather replace him with one of Quessenberry, Jones, or Newton.

Not sure too much about the defense. There will be a scheme change since nobody else run a 1-gap 3-4. That's going to determine our moves there.
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amazingandre


Joined: 16 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dsorc wrote:
While I understand the value of keeping Schaub as the veteran mentor, it's just not worth it money wise. You can find a vet mentor QB for close to league minimum. If you think Schaub is your backup, its hard to justify paying him 15M. It's 4M saving next year plus 17M the year after.

As for the other moves in andre's offseason plan. Not sure about the rest o the cuts. If we cut OD, we have no starting TE since Graham is a FA. McCain, Weeks, and White are all minor savings. All could lose their jobs in camp but not sure they're straight up cuts. Keep in mind, minimum salary for a rookie is 420k counteracting these small savings. Somebody has to take the roster spot of the cut player.

I like the idea of extending Manning to try to reduce his cap hit and I would love to re-sign Antonio Smith. I think Antonio will get closer to the 5 million Justin Smith got and maybe even more. I absolutely love the idea of targeting RT in FA. Good crop of OTs and RTs are relatively cheap. I would not re-sign Wade Smith as he seems to be slowing down. I would much rather replace him with one of Quessenberry, Jones, or Newton.

Not sure too much about the defense. There will be a scheme change since nobody else run a 1-gap 3-4. That's going to determine our moves there.


while I agree about Owen, his salary and injuries don't justify keeping him., Unless we extend and reduce his cap (which is possible since its his last season next year).....
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dsorc


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I went deeper into the cap numbers and I think you're right Andre. OD is a likely cap casualty given our overall cap situation. One thing you did not include that I was looking at is the cost of draft picks where having the 1st picks is actually a bad thing. If you sum up the average per year for the first pick of each round last year, the total is about 10M. Now the salaries increase over time but realistically, I think we have to assume draft picks will cost us ~8M on next year's cap with half of that going to the first pick. That means that almost all of our current cap spaces is going to go to the draft picks. If we want to make FA moves we need to make a corresponding cut.

Our cap situation looks better in 2015 if Schaub is cut but that's largely because Schaub has such a large cap hit. The moves we make this offseason will need to keep in mind that Watt, Kareem, and Manning would be in the last year of their deals. There is value in extending Manning right away but extensions for Kareem and Watt will not save us money in 2014. This gives us 2 avenues, cut Schaub early and keep the salaries in 2014 to the minimum like you did. Payments can then grow after Schaubs dead money goes out. Option 2 would be to make Schuab a June 1st cut, prorating his dead money. That would give us more space this year and we would keep payments for FAs flatter. Any extra space probably goes to Watt's extension.
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So against signing Antonio Smith, but would bring back Wade Smith as it keep continuity with OL, and I just have a feeling that the new coach will switch the defense back to 4-3 so you can put Mercilus opposite of Watt.

Just pray that we don't get Shanny as the new HC, and would be happy with either Lovie or Whisenhunt. John Clayton said that Rick Smith worked with Whisenhunt for 2 years if that means anything, and that McNair wants to talk to David Shaw even though he has said that he is coming back to Stanford. I guess McNair wants to see if he can money whip him to see if he will change his mind.
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PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 5:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Wade Smith is a backup now and we should only bring him back if he's willing to get paid like it. I like bringing in Oher. Resigning Smith will probably be tough I agree with dsorc. Overall good plan
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lumberjackchris


Joined: 14 Apr 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The new cap estimates are out

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/11/2014-cap-is-projected-to-be-126-3-million/

a project 3.3 mil raise in this years cap
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/12/12/ben-tate-houston-texans-acupuncture/

Interesting article about Ben Tate and his recovery from the broken ribs
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dsorc


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 9:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here's my attempt at a mock offseason. Money is tight so I tried to look for cheap FAs with upside. My only early cut is Schaub (with a June 1st designation) which gives about 9M in cap space. A couple of others (Bullock, Bonner, Lemon, and Victorian) would likely lose their spots in camp.

HC: Lovie Smith (and thus a switch to the Tampa-2)
OC: Cam Cameron - I wanted a different but somewhat proven OC that wouldn't entail a lateral move. I think we should ditch the idea of being a run-first offense. The rules almost beg for a pass-first offense.

FA (Assume flat cap hit for simplicity. Total cap hit ~10.65M):
DE Antonio Smith - Signed to a deal a little under Justin Smith (4yr 20M instead of 3yr 16.7M)
NT Terrence Cody - 2yr 4.5M like Roy Miller. Cody has not been getting used in Baltimore as a result of a scheme change in favor of speed. Even though we would be going to a 4-3, a run stuffing DT that can win you short downs is a good thing.
WLB Taylor Mays - 1yr 1.4M like Jonathan Casillas. Yes he is supposed to be a safety but he actually saw time at LB this year due to injuries in Cincinnati. He's best in the box and he was always a good hitter. If the DL can keep him clean as the WLB he can just focus on flying around and hitting people. I also though about moving Swearinger to WLB for similar reasons.
RT Anthony Collins - Cap hit of about 2M like Winston but longer deal. Collins has already been covered in another mock offseason. In general, he's done a good job when asked but should hopefully be flying under the radar right now. Some of the best RT options, like Oher, will probably be trying to get a deal as a LT and therefore more money.

Draft
1. QB Teddy Bridgewater
2. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - a bit off the wall. Would start as the #2 and then take over for OD.
3. CB Louchez Pourifoy - Lots of 2nd round CBs so I'm expecting at least one of them drops here.
4. DT Derick Hopkins - Needed depth
5. RB Marion Grice- Really was just looking for a RB that could also be a receiving threat.
6. FB/TE Trey Burton - James Casey clone. Again, I was thinking of a more pass-heavy offense so having a FB that can do more than just block would be nice.
7. WR Jeff Janis - Found this name in the draft board. Idea here would be to go for a small school WR with tools that could potentially be used as a deep threath

Depth Chart
QB: Bridgewater, Keenum Yates
RB: Foster, D. Johnson, Grice
FB: Burton
WR: Johnson, Hopkins, Posey, Martin, Janis
TE: Daniels, Sefarian-Jenkins, Griffin
LT: Brown, Newton
LG: Quessenberry , Kupper
OC: Myers, Jones
RG: Brooks, White
RT: Collins, B. Williams

LE: A. Smith, Jamison
UT: Watt, Der. Hopkins
NT: Cody, Crick
RE: Mercilus, Trevardo
SLB: Reed, Tuggle
MLB: Cushing, Mohamed
WLB: Mays, Tarpinian
CB: Joseph, Jackson, Puorifoy, McCain, Harris, Bouye
FS: Manning, Pleasant, Starling
SS: Swearinger, Keo

LS: Weeks
P: Lechler
K: cheap vet or UDFA

-I would have Quess and Newton competing for the LG spot
-On passing downs, take out the NT for a CB, shift Antonio inside and bring Reed to DE.
-There's a whole bunch of guys at the bottom of the depth chart that could be replaced by UDFAs or minimum salary vets.
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jch1911


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PostPosted: Fri Dec 20, 2013 11:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dsorc wrote:
WLB Taylor Mays He's best in the box and he was always a good hitter. If the DL can keep him clean as the WLB he can just focus on flying around and hitting people. I also though about moving Swearinger to WLB for similar reasons.
RT Anthony Collins -Collins has already been covered in another mock offseason. In general, he's done a good job when asked but should hopefully be flying under the radar right now. Some of the best RT options, like Oher, will probably be trying to get a deal as a LT and therefore more money.

Draft
1. QB Teddy Bridgewater
2. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - a bit off the wall. Would start as the #2 and then take over for OD. I think Griffin is showing potential to be OD2 down the road.
3. CB Louchez Pourifoy - Lots of 2nd round CBs so I'm expecting at least one of them drops here. Would be nice pickup in the 3rd. Needs to be coached up, but has the tools for the new NFL.
6. FB/TE Trey Burton - James Casey clone. Again, I was thinking of a more pass-heavy offense so having a FB that can do more than just block would be nice. I like this kid too

Depth Chart
LT: Brown, Newton Shocked Hell to the nnawwww
CB: Joseph, Jackson, Puorifoy, McCain GONE, Harris, Bouye


Not in love with Lovie Wink I like the guy as a DC... not as a HC. Also, not sure about the switch to a Tampa 2.

If we do move to a 4-3, I think you hit on one of the most surprising options as a WLB (Mays). To be honest, I did it all the time in Madden (I know real life ain't Madden...) He was a BEAST at WLB (avg. like 8 sacks, 24 PDs, 10 ints.). It was so sick that you knew it was Madden. The downside was FBs could wipe him out on running plays EASILY.

I think we agree on Collins and will not be surprised one bit if he ends up in his hometown as our new RT.

Interesting suggestion about Newton as a G. I think he would fit the right side more. But NO way in heck would I put that guy at LT. He is bad enough as a RT.

Also, I would love to re-sign the Ninja, but I think he realizes that this is his last shot at a BIG contract and he his played well enough to earn one (Browns possibly as they have the money and need better pass rushing along the front)

Oh yeah... no way McCain should be here next year: per rotoworld & PFF
[Ike Taylor] is PFF's No. 104 corner among 109 qualifiers in 2013. Only Antonio Cromartie, Leonard Johnson, Derek Cox, Brice McCain, and Cortland Finnegan have graded out worse.

Thanks for the effort & time you put in. If you get a chance, I would love for your input on my off-season plan - especially the cap #s.
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dsorc


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Dec 21, 2013 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another OT was probably needed in my plan, moving Newton to LG and pushing Kupper out of the roster. Chris White is also a likely cut. Newton has definitely failed at RT but is still decent depth. Most teams don't have the luxury of having a backup OT that they would feel really comfortable with at LT.

I thought about cutting McCain but that's not a big savings. I say take him to training camp and let the chips fall where they may. If Victorian/Bouye can beat McCain, then cut him. But those are PS guys so I'm not betting on them right now.
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="dsorc"]Here's my attempt at a mock offseason. Money is tight so I tried to look for cheap FAs with upside. My only early cut is Schaub (with a June 1st designation) which gives about 9M in cap space. A couple of others (Bullock, Bonner, Lemon, and Victorian) would likely lose their spots in camp.

HC: Lovie Smith (and thus a switch to the Tampa-2)
OC: Cam Cameron - I wanted a different but somewhat proven OC that wouldn't entail a lateral move. I think we should ditch the idea of being a run-first offense. The rules almost beg for a pass-first offense.

FA (Assume flat cap hit for simplicity. Total cap hit ~10.65M):
DE Antonio Smith - Signed to a deal a little under Justin Smith (4yr 20M instead of 3yr 16.7M)
NT Terrence Cody - 2yr 4.5M like Roy Miller. Cody has not been getting used in Baltimore as a result of a scheme change in favor of speed. Even though we would be going to a 4-3, a run stuffing DT that can win you short downs is a good thing.
WLB Taylor Mays - 1yr 1.4M like Jonathan Casillas. Yes he is supposed to be a safety but he actually saw time at LB this year due to injuries in Cincinnati. He's best in the box and he was always a good hitter. If the DL can keep him clean as the WLB he can just focus on flying around and hitting people. I also though about moving Swearinger to WLB for similar reasons.
RT Anthony Collins - Cap hit of about 2M like Winston but longer deal. Collins has already been covered in another mock offseason. In general, he's done a good job when asked but should hopefully be flying under the radar right now. Some of the best RT options, like Oher, will probably be trying to get a deal as a LT and therefore more money.

Draft
1. QB Teddy Bridgewater
2. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins - a bit off the wall. Would start as the #2 and then take over for OD.
3. CB Louchez Pourifoy - Lots of 2nd round CBs so I'm expecting at least one of them drops here.
4. DT Derick Hopkins - Needed depth
5. RB Marion Grice- Really was just looking for a RB that could also be a receiving threat.
6. FB/TE Trey Burton - James Casey clone. Again, I was thinking of a more pass-heavy offense so having a FB that can do more than just block would be nice.
7. WR Jeff Janis - Found this name in the draft board. Idea here would be to go for a small school WR with tools that could potentially be used as a deep threath

Depth Chart
QB: Bridgewater, Keenum Yates
RB: Foster, D. Johnson, Grice
FB: Burton
WR: Johnson, Hopkins, Posey, Martin, Janis
TE: Daniels, Sefarian-Jenkins, Griffin
LT: Brown, Newton
LG: Quessenberry , Kupper
OC: Myers, Jones
RG: Brooks, White
RT: Collins, B. Williams

LE: A. Smith, Jamison
UT: Watt, Der. Hopkins
NT: Cody, Crick
RE: Mercilus, Trevardo
SLB: Reed, Tuggle
MLB: Cushing, Mohamed
WLB: Mays, Tarpinian
CB: Joseph, Jackson, Puorifoy, McCain, Harris, Bouye
FS: Manning, Pleasant, Starling
SS: Swearinger, Keo

LS: Weeks
P: Lechler
K: cheap vet or UDFA

-I would have Quess and Newton competing for the LG spot
-On passing downs, take out the NT for a CB, shift Antonio inside and bring Reed to DE.
-There's a whole bunch of guys at the bottom of the depth chart that could be replaced by UDFAs or minimum salary vets.

Like the HC/OC choices, and liked bringing in Collins.

Your draft after the 1st round is a head scratcher.

Pourifoy-know someone from UF, and he tells me he is a thug and overrated
TE in the 2nd round? How about some DL help since we are giving up 8 YPC or outside line backer as Taylor Mays is just a special teamer.
Don't really know any of the players after the 3rd round as I haven't started research for the draft. Still early to be doing Mock Drafts as we don't even know where we will be picking.
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dsorc


Joined: 16 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 23, 2013 1:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

buckwild wrote:

Like the HC/OC choices, and liked bringing in Collins.

Your draft after the 1st round is a head scratcher.

Pourifoy-know someone from UF, and he tells me he is a thug and overrated
TE in the 2nd round? How about some DL help since we are giving up 8 YPC or outside line backer as Taylor Mays is just a special teamer.
Don't really know any of the players after the 3rd round as I haven't started research for the draft. Still early to be doing Mock Drafts as we don't even know where we will be picking.

Florida fans have been very dissapointed with Pourifoy but the kid at least has the measurables. Their will likely be other 2nd round corners available at the top of the 3rd so not worried there.

I did not re-sign Graham, because I couldn't find the money for it. And you'll have to excuse me if I'm not handing the keys over to Ryan Griffin just yet. Also as a factor of not re-signing Graham and OD being on a 1 year deal, Sefarian-Jenkins would get 1 year as the #2 and then would be asked to be the #1 TE.

I tried to fix the DL in FA so that's why i didn't go after it early in the draft.

We disagree on Taylor Mays which is fine.
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