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Pastor Dillon


Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 12200
Location: Mountain Home, Arkansas
PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:20 pm    Post subject: 2016 Free Agents Reply with quote

Looking ahead to next off season, because its the week before training camp and we need something else to talk about, and you notice that the Texans are set up nicely

we have 12 million or so in cap space, but we can get more by releasing some guys.

We only have 3 guys that are starters that will be free agents, and i dont think any of them will command a very big deal. We have lost players every year for several years, but perhaps we finally keep all out guys

Brandon Brooks, Ben Jones and Jarod Crick are the 3 starts...plus our 2 kickers

then we have some fringe starters like Stevie Brown, Mike Mohamad, Nate Washington

all in all i think we take a step forward in 2015, and in 2016 we will be contenders.
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Wolf6151


Joined: 11 Feb 2008
Posts: 2923
Location: Pearland, Texas
PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:31 pm    Post subject: Re: 2016 Free Agents Reply with quote

Pastor Dillon wrote:
Looking ahead to next off season, because its the week before training camp and we need something else to talk about, and you notice that the Texans are set up nicely

we have 12 million or so in cap space, but we can get more by releasing some guys.

We only have 3 guys that are starters that will be free agents, and i dont think any of them will command a very big deal. We have lost players every year for several years, but perhaps we finally keep all out guys

Brandon Brooks, Ben Jones and Jarod Crick are the 3 starts...plus our 2 kickers

then we have some fringe starters like Stevie Brown, Mike Mohamad, Nate Washington

all in all i think we take a step forward in 2015, and in 2016 we will be contenders.


I think we try to re-sign all the highlighted names though Ben Jones is borderline and dependant on how he plays this season. I think there's a better than average chance that this will be the last year for Cushing and Foster as well. Cushing isn't cost effective for his productivity and Foster has lots of mileage and diminishing returns.
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Texansfan713


Joined: 24 Dec 2009
Posts: 34940
Location: Houston
PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 2:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I expect Brooks and Jones to play very well in their contract years. Resigning them (especially Brooks) in a must as you cant go anywhere without a good OL. Given that they dont play tackle, they will command less than Newton IMO.

I think Washington is only here for this year to mentor Strong. Next year I see Strong taking a leap forward to possibly starting next to Hopkins with Shorts in the slot.
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lumberjackchris


Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 5856
PostPosted: Mon Jul 27, 2015 5:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Spotrac is right, then we have 8 mil in cap space this season. If that is in fact true, Brooks will be signed to a decent extension prior to the start of the season.
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 6052
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 11:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good thread. I'll go a step further. As we evolve our understanding of the cap and how contracts are structured it's time to look at more than end dates on contracts. The real end date is when the value of a player is less than what the cap relief cutting that player could bring in other players or in retaining our own. Generally, the final year(s) on non-rookie deals are a total mirage as I told you the day AJ signed his 7 year contract in 2010 that there was no way AJ was going to be worth $16 million in 2015 which was blasphemy to most at the time, but ultimately I was proven to be correct. So with that in mind, which players are likely to not be around in 2016 or at least be leveraged into a "restructure or be cut" pay cut.

1) Arian Foster - I was actually a bit surprised that we didn't go after a true heir apparent in the draft considering Arian's injury history and turning 30 next year. This is essentially a contract year for Arian as he's NOT going to be retained for $9.3 million next year when cutting him provides $7 million in cap space. Arian's contract was one of the last of the big RB contracts before the bottom dropped out of RB salaries. Only 8 Rbs average over $9 million per season while the next 16 average around $3 million. Arian may still be elite, but the math is pretty simple when you can draft an Eddie Lacy or Laveon Bell and get 4 quality years of sub $1 million seasons out of them then move on to the next. It's easy to forget the revolving door of garbage we had between Dom Davis and Arian, but Arian is going to be a victim of a system he helped create by showing that you can find star RBs even outside the draft better yet high priced free agents. Glad he got paid as his wife is gunna take him for a fortune, and he'll catch on somewhere next year, but I doubt he's not going to be a Texan.

2) Cushing. Everything we hear is great, but the only negatives you hear in July are when coaches are trying to send a public message for a player to get in shape. Handing a long-term roider like Cushing $21 million guaranteed a year early despite coming off his first major injury was amongst the dumbest deals Rick has ever done. The 2nd injury was a cheap shot, but it rendered his 2013 & 2014 seasons amongst the worst pay to perfomance ratio's in the game and that Cushing is STILL the 3rd highest paid ILB in the game shows just how out of whack this contract was even if the 2nd injury didn't happen. That finally clears up after 2015 when we can cut him and at least save $2.2 million and get out from under paying an ILB who doesn't get to the QB and can't catch most RBs on the edge better yet cover a TE for $9.5 million+ for the next 4 seasons.

3) Hoyer - make no mistake, that Hoyer's deal is a "prove it" deal. We get out with zero cap hit next year vs. $5.2 million, so he's either the starter who took us to the playoffs and is signed long-term or he's gone.

Hopkins is going to make some serious bank after 2016 (or likely 2017 due to 5th year option), but aside from that the Texans have no impending major salaries to worry about going forward, so I agree that we are well positioned to retain any of our own players and to be major players in free agency next offseason should we choose to. I suspect that if the Mallett/Hoyer patchwork solution doesn't take us far this year, I wouldn't rule out us going after a guy like Phillip Rivers, Brees, Bradford, or Foles.

I can't imagine the Seahawks letting Russell Wilson get away, but there seems to be enough posturing to make it a remote possibility and we would be one of the few teams that would both present a solid system fit, built to win now, and have the cash to make him the highest paid player in the game. We can debate whether he is worth it on another day, but considering we have two playoff wins over Cincy to our credit to show for 13 years of bucking the system in trying to win with QBs without any playoff experience, it has to be at least on the table.
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canyon1


Joined: 17 Feb 2007
Posts: 631
Location: Austin, TX
PostPosted: Tue Jul 28, 2015 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think as long as OB is our head coach the days of having a primary RB are gone... He seems like he is going to continue the trend of draft a RB late that was a highly touted recruit out of high school but not a lot of wear n tear on their tires .. look at Blue and Hilliard. Most people don't think Hilliard will make the roster but I'm almost certain that we will keep 4 RB's this year. So start looking a teams the use more than one RB in a PRO system to be targets for us from now on. So LSU, Alabama, Wisconsin and Arkansas are a few teams that come to mind. So someone that fits the mold is someone like Kenyan Drake from Alabama for next years draft. He was a highly ranked recruit but plays behind Henry so he doesn't get a lot of touches. So I agree that I think this might be Fosters last year with the team unless he becomes cheaper. Duane Brown might be someone that will be asked to sign an extended deal but less money year to year basis. Hoyer I think will be gone after this year. Maybe even traded like Fitzpatrick and Keenan were. A heavy emphasis needs to be put on the o-line next off season. We dont necessarily need a complete overhaul like the Rams did with i think a total of 4-5 new offensive lineman but three would be a good number to go along with are current starting five.

Does anyone else think we might be a little thin in the trenches???
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