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Collect media predictions of the Vikings record in 2014
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2247
PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 4:17 pm    Post subject: Collect media predictions of the Vikings record in 2014 Reply with quote

In general, I think Vikings fans and analysts who've followed the team closely are more optimistic about their chances this year than most general media or writers who haven't followed them closely.

You can use this thread to collect preseason predictions for the Vikings record in 2014.

Don't copy-paste full articles, just link to them and quote a relevant paragraph or two, plus the record. Please list the writer's affiliation / qualifications along with their predictions. If they give the NFC North standings, include where the Vikings finish compared to the rest of the division.

Here are a few to start off:

Pete Prisco, senior NFL columnist for CBS sports: http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/writer/pete-prisco/24683167/predicting-every-nfl-game-heres-how-the-season-plays-out

Vikings finish 4-12, 4th in the division, losing their first 8 games in a row (first win vs Washington Nov 2nd)

...

Bill Barnwell and Robert Mays, from Grantland, NFC North preview podcast: http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-grantland-nfl-podcast-2014-nfc-north-preview/

They discuss the Vikings potentially finishing as high as 11-5, if Bridgewater starts most of the year, before agreeing they'll more likely end up roughly 8-8

...

Andy Benoit, MMQB: http://mmqb.si.com/2014/08/01/nfl-minnesota-vikings-2014-team-preview/

No specific record given, but expects similar performance to last year:

Quote:
New coach, new venue (frigid TCF Bank Stadium) but same old Vikings. They have a decent roster that, unfortunately, is highly questionable at the most important position.


...

Football Outsiders almanac (available to purchase from their website)

Mean projection 7.4 wins
Postseason odds: 23.8%
Super Bowl odds: 2.4%

0-4 wins: 13%
5-7 wins: 39%
8-10 wins: 37%
11+ wins: 11%
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Benjamin Morris at FiveThirtyEight, projecting records using Vegas point spreads: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2014-nfl-preview-great-players-and-gambling-problems-in-the-nfc-north/

Quote:
Expected wins: 6.5
Playoff probability: 17 percent (9 percent to win the NFC North)
Super Bowl win probability: 1 percent


That's the worst projection for the 4 teams in the NFC North.

They have a chart showing a range of outcomes ... http://espnfivethirtyeight.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/paine-feature-2014vikingsprojection.png

...on which the VIkings have a better chance of winning 4 games (10.1%) than 9 (9.2%), and the highest chance of winning 6 games (13.9%).
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ESPN Magazine:

Quote:
NFL on ESPN ‏@ESPNNFL 47m

2014 @ESPNMag NFC North Predictions:
1. @Packers 12-4
2. @ChicagoBears 9-7
3. @Lions 7-9
4. @Vikings 4-12
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Everyone going against the odds of the 4-0 preseason.

People like to say it's not a precursor of what to expect for the season, but the numbers don't lie.

78% of the teams that have had an undefeated preseason went on to be 8-8 or better.
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Everyone going against the odds of the 4-0 preseason.

People like to say it's not a precursor of what to expect for the season, but the numbers don't lie.

78% of the teams that have had an undefeated preseason went on to be 8-8 or better.


And the 2008 Detroit Lions turned it into an 0-16 season
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2014 7:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Klomp wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
Everyone going against the odds of the 4-0 preseason.

People like to say it's not a precursor of what to expect for the season, but the numbers don't lie.

78% of the teams that have had an undefeated preseason went on to be 8-8 or better.


And the 2008 Detroit Lions turned it into an 0-16 season

Which is the argument everyone brings up. 1 out of however many perfect preseasons

I'll take the 78%
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Pelissero says they could finish 8-8 if the defense improves (video): http://www.usatoday.com/media/cinematic/video/14702617/nfc-north-preview-packers-a-super-bowl-contender/

...

Scott Bantel from SB Nation, on Yahoo Sports, puts them 6-10, with 70% confidence in the pick: http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl-division-preview-nfc-north-200118900.html

Quote:
Reasons for Optimism:

Adrian Peterson - ...

Mike Zimmer - I love Mike Zimmer. I love his attitude. I love his work ethic. And I love his approach to the game. His players play for him and he will bring attitude and accountability. He will make the Vikings better as a team, even if their record does not improve greatly. One thing is for sure, under Zimmer's watch, the Vikings defense will not be ranked 31st overall like they were in 2013. When Zimmer arrived in Cincinnati in 2007, he took over the 27th ranked defense and improved them to 12th in 2008, 4th in 2009, 15th in 2010, 7th in 2011, 6th in 2012 and 3rd in 2013.

Teddy Bridgewater - ...

Cordarelle Patterson - ...

Reasons to be Cautious:

The Vikings Offense - This team will still be starting a rookie QB or a poor QB and their offensive weapons, while good, still pale in comparison to their division foes. Jennings is decent, but was more of a product of Aaron Rodgers and Kyle Rudolph is not a difference maker at the TE position.

QB Position - This is a league of QBs and if you have one, you are good. If you don't have a QB, you struggle. As much as I like Bridgewater, 1) he may not even start, and 2) he is still a rookie. In a division that features Rodgers, Stafford and Cutler, the Vikings are at a clear disadvantage at the QB position.

The Defense - The defense will be better under Zimmer, but they are still going to be in the bottom half of the league and in the NFC North, they will be tasked with stopping some of the most potent offenses in the NFL twice a year.

Rookie Head Coach - As much as I like Zimmer, he is a rookie head coach with as many head coaching wins as me. Combine a rookie coach with a rookie QB and a poor defense in a league filled with potent offenses and you don't get a recipe for success.

Overall:

I believe the Vikings will be better under Zimmer and could surprise a lot of teams, but I don't see them being able to make a legit playoff run. Could they get up towards the .500 mark? Sure. Doing so would be possible and would put them in play for second in the division, but I don't see any scenario where this team makes the playoffs.


...

Some off-brand site called The Sports Post with a very entertaining preview by Scott Quinn: http://thesportspost.com/blogs/view/2014-nfl-preview-nfc-north-packers-bears-vikings-lions

Intro alone is very good:

Quote:
Some things you should know about the NFC North:

-- The fourth best team (Minnesota) might be the best team in the AFC South or AFC North.
-- At least half of its backup quarterbacks (Matt Flynn, Matt Cassel) could start for the Texans. Or the Jaguars.
-- The eighth best wide receiver in this division (Greg Jennings) might be the best wide receiver in the AFC East. The fourth best running back (Reggie Bush) would start on more than half of the teams in the leagues.
-- If you were building a front seven from scratch and could only use one division, you might very well choose the NFC North (Ndamukong Suh, Clay Matthews, Jared Allen, Chad Greenway, Lance Briggs, the list goes on and on).
Despite all of this talent, the team that won this division last year went 8𤪗 and lost its star quarterback for almost half of the season.

This is a weird division. The quarterbacks are injury prone. The coaches don抰 know how to manage games. They collapse left and right; there抯 not much rhyme or reason to anything they do. It might be the best division in football, it might be impossible to watch. We have no earthly idea going into any given season. We have no earthly idea going into any given week. Keep that in mind as we break this division down. It抯 the most malleable division in football.


Projects the Vikings at 5-11:

Quote:
Poor Minnesota. Last year the Vikings had a golden opportunity to steal a division title, but it抯 Minnesota so of course they have to suck once every two or three years. This year they might actually be decent, but the rest of the division is so good it won抰 matter. If the Vikings suck cycle had just been off by one more year we could抳e seen Matt Cassel in the playoffs again. I feel gypped.

Instead, we get to watch Teddy Bridgewater underthrow the spectacular Cordarrelle Patterson in an eerily Dalton-ian fashion. Poor Patterson. I抦 starting to wonder if he was just doomed to waste the beginning of his career with bad quarterbacks. Not only is he in Minnesota, but the wide receivers taken around him in both directions are stuck with Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jake Locker抯 backup and E.J. Manuel. There was no scenario that didn抰 involve him ending up in a bad situation.

The defense has a chance to be this year抯 token 搒nuck into the top 10 despite having no names unit strictly because Mike Zimmer is a miracle worker. Look at the Cincinnati defense. Did you know who Geno Atkins was coming out of school? Michael Johnson? Vontaze Burfict was known specifically for being an idiot. Zimmer takes guys with talent and turns them into stars. That doesn抰 sound particularly impressive until you remember how many resources teams waste trying to find defensive playmakers. Bill Belichick has wasted something like 57 second round picks on cornerbacks (half of which have been named Butler or McCourty) and still had to go get Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner.

It抯 not a bad team, especially when you consider that Adrian Peterson might secretly be a Greek god and playing outdoors in the winter in Minnesota will kill at least three Tom Coughlins per game. But Teddy Bridgewater is a rookie, there抯 quite of bit of concern on the injury front and the rest of this division is too tough.


...

The brilliant parody PFT Commenter's 32 "hot takes" puts the Vikings as one of the few teams that won't finish 8-8 or 2-14: http://www.sbnation.com/2014/8/28/6075033/32-hot-takes-for-the-2014-nfl-season

Quote:
Vikings - There going to win like 5 games. (5-11)
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Frank Costello


Joined: 01 Mar 2009
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Location: in 2009, Vikings>Saints
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We have just as much talent if not MORE than Philly and KC before they hired their new coaches last year.

We're going to surprise a lot of people this year, bank it.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Alex Marvez for Fox Sports: http://www.foxsports.com/north/story/2014/07/30/2014-preview-vikings-quarterback-secondary-issues-will-determine-season

Quote:
Adrian Peterson was once able to carry Minnesota's anemic offense. Expecting that again in 2014 may be asking too much. Peterson turned 29 in March and is coming off an injury-tainted season in which he no longer looked like the NFL's best running back. The Vikings need better play at quarterback, whether it's from retread veteran Matt Cassel or 2014 first-round pick Teddy Bridgewater. At least the defense should be better especially on third downs under new head coach Mike Zimmer. Prediction: 6-10.


Last edited by Krauser on Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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DJpillz317


Joined: 21 Oct 2012
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 10:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Frank Costello wrote:
We have just as much talent if not MORE than Philly and KC before they hired their new coaches last year.

We're going to surprise a lot of people this year, bank it.

Damn right Frank, 10-6 w/ playoffs starting Cassel; 11-5 or 12-4 with an NFC title run if we roll with Teddy! Very Happy
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Prediction: Derek Carr = next Brandon Weeden; Zach Mett will be a good starter; Manziel will be a STAR.
Blake Bortles is going to be a Viking
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MIN is the easy selection for 4th in the Division.
I'm expecting us to be in the running for 2nd.

The team is very different.
Different QB (2 better ones)
Better Agressive Offense
Better Agressive Defense
Personel wise we're stronger.

More importantly we've likely improved more then other teams in the division comparitively.
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Frank Costello


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think we might struggle a little early on in finding our true identity as a team.


But once our D gels, look out. Our offense has the ability to be top 10. So when you add those both up, an exciting season is in the works !
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CriminalMind


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2014 11:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its our best roster/coaches since Farve Part I Year
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rivers McCown puts the Vikings 3rd in the NFC North, at 9-7: https://twitter.com/riversmccown/status/506810784928649216/photo/1

...

Ben Goessling of ESPN pegs them for 7-9: http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/138134/nfl-nation-season-predictions

Those predictions were all made by home team reporters -- worst record is 6-10 (4 teams), so 7-9 is relatively pessimistic.
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Virginia Viking


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2014 11:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rarely do these predictions from football "experts' come to fruition. There are several teams that will be disappointments (I think Green Bay will be one of those this year...I don't trust their line to keep Rodgers healthy)....and their are teams that surprise everyone...ala' the Colts in 2012 and the Chiefs in 2013. I think the Vikings can potentially be a surprise team. Things that the experts see as questions, I see as potential pluses:
1. New Coaches. I think Zimmer will bring the defense into the upper half of the league...and maybe even a top 10. Turner has a great record of turning offenses around in his first season. It's season 2 and beyond where he has difficulty.
2. Adrian Peterson. Every time people begin question him, he comes out swinging. If healthy, he will have a very productive year. Maybe not 2,000 yards, but around 1400 with more touchdowns and more activity in the passing game.
3. Playing out doors. The way Zimmer is building the defense, they are going to be aggressive and bruising. The D-Line will hurt some people in the Minnesota cold!!
4. Receivers and TE's. I look for Rudolph to bounce back big time in this offense. Greg Jennings is going to be a reliable chain mover...and Patterson will be the big play guy who will make folks forget that guy who got traded to Seattle a couple of years ago?? I think it was Percy something?? Wink
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