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Redskins sign former Bucs Kicker Kai Forbath; Cut K Cundiff
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SeanTayorsaPIMP


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

footy_29 wrote:
Cundiff....really? Of all the kickers you would seek to replace him with, it's Cundiff.

I would rather have kept Rackers if the plan was to replace him at all costs.


This is my exact thoughts. I mean Billy Cundiff??? Rackers and Gano seem like much better options. Josh Brown is out there, he would've been a better signing...I'm very puzzled by this move.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Awesome! My dad called this one when I told him how I didn't understand why they would cut Rackers in favor of Gano so soon!

This is one hell of a signing. I now have confidence we can win more close games.
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

footy_29 wrote:
Quote:
Cundiff, 32 made only 76 percent (28 of 37) of his field goals last season. He was 8-of-15 from beyond 40 yards. He is 1-for-9 from 50 yards or longer over the last three seasons. Gano, meanwhile, was 4-of-6 from 50 yards or longer in 2011.


http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/redskins-watch/2012/aug/28/redskins-change-kickers-replace-graham-gano-billy-/

Just for context, this is the type of kicker we are getting. Like Suisham, he shanks the long ones, and look how that has worked out for the Steelers and Ravens when they needed those kicks in the playoffs.


Exactly...we will get burned by this. Guaranteed.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Awesome! My dad called this one when I told him how I didn't understand why they would cut Rackers in favor of Gano so soon!

This is one hell of a signing. I now have confidence we can win more close games.


Why on earth would you have any more confidence with Cundiff than you would with Gano?

They're essentially the same kicker ... except Cundiff is ten years older and has a weaker leg (which affects both field goals and kickoffs).

If you wanted a different kicker, they should have stayed with Rackers.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thaiphoon wrote:
footy_29 wrote:
Quote:
Cundiff, 32 made only 76 percent (28 of 37) of his field goals last season. He was 8-of-15 from beyond 40 yards. He is 1-for-9 from 50 yards or longer over the last three seasons. Gano, meanwhile, was 4-of-6 from 50 yards or longer in 2011.


http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/redskins-watch/2012/aug/28/redskins-change-kickers-replace-graham-gano-billy-/

Just for context, this is the type of kicker we are getting. Like Suisham, he shanks the long ones, and look how that has worked out for the Steelers and Ravens when they needed those kicks in the playoffs.


Exactly...we will get burned by this. Guaranteed.


Not taking that bet.
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e16bball


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 2:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

As everyone knows, I was a pretty big Gano fan, so I can't say I'm in love with this move.

But I feel as if fans are selling Cundiff a little short here. To deal with some of the stats footy posted:

Quote:
Cundiff, 32 made only 76 percent (28 of 37) of his field goals last season. He was 8-of-15 from beyond 40 yards. He is 1-for-9 from 50 yards or longer over the last three seasons. Gano, meanwhile, was 4-of-6 from 50 yards or longer in 2011.


The "8/15 beyond 40 yards last season" and "1/9 from 50 yards or longer since 2009" stats are a little misleading, because he was 1/6 from 50+ last season. Which means that between 40-49 yards last season, he was 7/9 (78%). And for the referenced 3-year span, he's 17/20 on kicks from that distance (85%). That places him among the league's elite in that distance, as I believe he is 2nd-most accurate among all outdoor kickers over those 3 years. For ALL kicks within 50 yards, then, it means he was 26/31 (84%) last season in his "poor" year and 71/80 (89%) over those 3 seasons.

Additionally, he has 15 more TBs than any other K in the league over the past two seasons. He's done that despite playing 28 of his 31 games outdoors, which of course would tend to deflate his overall TB numbers. He's a weapon on KOs, and more than half the time we can expect opponents to be starting on the 20-yard line with no chance at a return.

Finally, the conception people seem to have of Cundiff as a "choker" appears to be based solely on the miss last season against NE. Over the past 3 regular seasons, he is 9/9 on FGs kicked when the game was "late and close" (as defined by Yahoo!). In fact, he hasn't missed a regular season kick in the 4th quarter or OT at all since returning to the NFL in 2009.

Which leaves us with the playoff kick. Including that miss, he's 12/14 (86%) as a postseason kicker, and he was riding an 11 consecutive playoff FGM streak until that kick. I watched that game live --- and for full disclosure sake, I hate the Ravens and couldn't care less about Billy Cundiff --- and while it was a terrible kick, John Harbaugh absolutely blew that situation. Obsessed, I'm sure, with the concept of "icing" his own kicker, he refused to call a timeout even though Cundiff was tremendously late coming out onto the field and wasn't even in reasonable position to kick until there were 4 seconds left on the play clock. The snap was rushed (and it wasn't great), the hold was rushed (and it was pretty poor --- the laces were not out), and the kick was rushed. All while they had a timeout sitting in their pocket. Absolute idiocy.

ASIDE: For anyone who thinks this is revisionist history now that we have Cundiff, the following was my Facebook status on January 22, 2012: "So does this mean Billy Cundiff is going to become a cross-dressing police lieutenant bent on revenge against Dan Marino and a dolphin...I mean, Sam Koch and John Harbaugh?"
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e16bball wrote:
As everyone knows, I was a pretty big Gano fan, so I can't say I'm in love with this move.

But I feel as if fans are selling Cundiff a little short here. To deal with some of the stats footy posted:

Quote:
Cundiff, 32 made only 76 percent (28 of 37) of his field goals last season. He was 8-of-15 from beyond 40 yards. He is 1-for-9 from 50 yards or longer over the last three seasons. Gano, meanwhile, was 4-of-6 from 50 yards or longer in 2011.


The "8/15 beyond 40 yards last season" and "1/9 from 50 yards or longer since 2009" stats are a little misleading, because he was 1/6 from 50+ last season. Which means that between 40-49 yards last season, he was 7/9 (78%). And for the referenced 3-year span, he's 17/20 on kicks from that distance (85%). That places him among the league's elite in that distance, as I believe he is 2nd-most accurate among all outdoor kickers over those 3 years. For ALL kicks within 50 yards, then, it means he was 26/31 (84%) last season in his "poor" year and 71/80 (89%) over those 3 seasons.

Additionally, he has 15 more TBs than any other K in the league over the past two seasons. He's done that despite playing 28 of his 31 games outdoors, which of course would tend to deflate his overall TB numbers. He's a weapon on KOs, and more than half the time we can expect opponents to be starting on the 20-yard line with no chance at a return.

Finally, the conception people seem to have of Cundiff as a "choker" appears to be based solely on the miss last season against NE. Over the past 3 regular seasons, he is 9/9 on FGs kicked when the game was "late and close" (as defined by Yahoo!). In fact, he hasn't missed a regular season kick in the 4th quarter or OT at all since returning to the NFL in 2009.

Which leaves us with the playoff kick. Including that miss, he's 12/14 (86%) as a postseason kicker, and he was riding an 11 consecutive playoff FGM streak until that kick. I watched that game live --- and for full disclosure sake, I hate the Ravens and couldn't care less about Billy Cundiff --- and while it was a terrible kick, John Harbaugh absolutely blew that situation. Obsessed, I'm sure, with the concept of "icing" his own kicker, he refused to call a timeout even though Cundiff was tremendously late coming out onto the field and wasn't even in reasonable position to kick until there were 4 seconds left on the play clock. The snap was rushed (and it wasn't great), the hold was rushed (and it was pretty poor --- the laces were not out), and the kick was rushed. All while they had a timeout sitting in their pocket. Absolute idiocy.

ASIDE: For anyone who thinks this is revisionist history now that we have Cundiff, the following was my Facebook status on January 22, 2012: "So does this mean Billy Cundiff is going to become a cross-dressing police lieutenant bent on revenge against Dan Marino and a dolphin...I mean, Sam Koch and John Harbaugh?"
thank you E! Its damn great to have you back. One of the best posts I've seen in a while. Hittin people with the truth! I could have never came up with such advanced stats but I know Cundiff is a clutch kicker who's more accurate than any kicker we've had inn the past 10-15 years, his leg is as strong as Gano's and he's an elite kicker who performs well in pressure situations and the playoffs. Great breakdown of the Balt v NE miss also, that was on Harbaugh and the special teams coach, they blew that entire late game situation after Lee Evans dropped what should have been the game winning TD.
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e16bball


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So to sum up the above, since returning to the league in 2009, Cundiff is 71/80 (88.8%) on kicks from within 50 yards and 1/9 on kicks from 50+. For the sake of comparison, his performance on kicks within 50 yards is well above the league average of 85.5% over that 3-year period. In fact, Cundiff has been about as accurate from 40-49 (85%) as the average kicker is on all kicks from inside 50 yards, which includes of course the chip shots (85.5%).

Clearly, we should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs with Cundiff. But here's the secret, my friends. We should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs ANYWAY, no matter who our kicker is.

Last year was an amazing year for long-distance kicking, but over the past 5 seasons, attempting a 50-yard FG has yielded a 57.1% success rate (315/551). Relying on basic expected value, then, you would assume an attempted FG from 50+ yards is worth about +1.7 points to the kicking team (as they have a 57% chance of scoring 3 points and a 43% chance of scoring 0 points). But what this fails to consider are the other consequences of attempting such a FG, namely: (1) forgoing your chance at converting the 4th down and driving for a TD or closer FG attempt; (2) giving the opponent excellent field position if you miss; and (3) giving the ball back to the opponent with a KR and with more clock even if you make it.

Based on extensive research of the success rates of FGs and the conversion rates at certain yards-to-go situations, at least one source has concluded that at the 33-yard line (i.e., the point where you would be attempting a 50-yard FG), you should only attempt a FG on 4th down if you are facing more than 9 yards to go. If you want to play around with this concept more, or if you doubt my relaying of the information, check out Brian Burke's 4th down calculator over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Obviously, this is just for the "average" team, and a team that is tremendous defensively and inept offensively (or vice versa) might have different point expectancies than the average team. But I see nothing about the 2012 Redskins that would lead me to believe we'll be anything resembling an outlier on either side of the ball.

Will having Cundiff as our kicker make Shanny more likely to go for it instead of attempting a risky 50-yard FG? I don't know. For all I know, it might make him more likely to punt, which would be the worst outcome of all. But the point I'm trying to make remains: The only thing that Cundiff struggles at (50+ yard FGs) is something we should rarely be doing anyway.
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Thaiphoon


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e16bball wrote:
So to sum up the above, since returning to the league in 2009, Cundiff is 71/80 (88.8%) on kicks from within 50 yards and 1/9 on kicks from 50+. For the sake of comparison, his performance on kicks within 50 yards is well above the league average of 85.5% over that 3-year period. In fact, Cundiff has been about as accurate from 40-49 (85%) as the average kicker is on all kicks from inside 50 yards, which includes of course the chip shots (85.5%).

Clearly, we should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs with Cundiff. But here's the secret, my friends. We should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs ANYWAY, no matter who our kicker is.

Last year was an amazing year for long-distance kicking, but over the past 5 seasons, attempting a 50-yard FG has yielded a 57.1% success rate (315/551). Relying on basic expected value, then, you would assume an attempted FG from 50+ yards is worth about +1.7 points to the kicking team (as they have a 57% chance of scoring 3 points and a 43% chance of scoring 0 points). But what this fails to consider are the other consequences of attempting such a FG, namely: (1) forgoing your chance at converting the 4th down and driving for a TD or closer FG attempt; (2) giving the opponent excellent field position if you miss; and (3) giving the ball back to the opponent with a KR and with more clock even if you make it.

Based on extensive research of the success rates of FGs and the conversion rates at certain yards-to-go situations, at least one source has concluded that at the 33-yard line (i.e., the point where you would be attempting a 50-yard FG), you should only attempt a FG on 4th down if you are facing more than 9 yards to go. If you want to play around with this concept more, or if you doubt my relaying of the information, check out Brian Burke's 4th down calculator over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Obviously, this is just for the "average" team, and a team that is tremendous defensively and inept offensively (or vice versa) might have different point expectancies than the average team. But I see nothing about the 2012 Redskins that would lead me to believe we'll be anything resembling an outlier on either side of the ball.

Will having Cundiff as our kicker make Shanny more likely to go for it instead of attempting a risky 50-yard FG? I don't know. For all I know, it might make him more likely to punt, which would be the worst outcome of all. But the point I'm trying to make remains: The only thing that Cundiff struggles at (50+ yard FGs) is something we should rarely be doing anyway.


Well, this makes me feel better. Still not happy we went with the older leg, but this makes me feel better. I'm with you in when to kick a FG (9 yards to go). When you're on the 33, you should be going for it on 4th down.
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dante9876


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e16bball wrote:
So to sum up the above, since returning to the league in 2009, Cundiff is 71/80 (88.8%) on kicks from within 50 yards and 1/9 on kicks from 50+. For the sake of comparison, his performance on kicks within 50 yards is well above the league average of 85.5% over that 3-year period. In fact, Cundiff has been about as accurate from 40-49 (85%) as the average kicker is on all kicks from inside 50 yards, which includes of course the chip shots (85.5%).

Clearly, we should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs with Cundiff. But here's the secret, my friends. We should not be attempting many 50-yard FGs ANYWAY, no matter who our kicker is.

Last year was an amazing year for long-distance kicking, but over the past 5 seasons, attempting a 50-yard FG has yielded a 57.1% success rate (315/551). Relying on basic expected value, then, you would assume an attempted FG from 50+ yards is worth about +1.7 points to the kicking team (as they have a 57% chance of scoring 3 points and a 43% chance of scoring 0 points). But what this fails to consider are the other consequences of attempting such a FG, namely: (1) forgoing your chance at converting the 4th down and driving for a TD or closer FG attempt; (2) giving the opponent excellent field position if you miss; and (3) giving the ball back to the opponent with a KR and with more clock even if you make it.

Based on extensive research of the success rates of FGs and the conversion rates at certain yards-to-go situations, at least one source has concluded that at the 33-yard line (i.e., the point where you would be attempting a 50-yard FG), you should only attempt a FG on 4th down if you are facing more than 9 yards to go. If you want to play around with this concept more, or if you doubt my relaying of the information, check out Brian Burke's 4th down calculator over at Advanced NFL Stats.

Obviously, this is just for the "average" team, and a team that is tremendous defensively and inept offensively (or vice versa) might have different point expectancies than the average team. But I see nothing about the 2012 Redskins that would lead me to believe we'll be anything resembling an outlier on either side of the ball.

Will having Cundiff as our kicker make Shanny more likely to go for it instead of attempting a risky 50-yard FG? I don't know. For all I know, it might make him more likely to punt, which would be the worst outcome of all. But the point I'm trying to make remains: The only thing that Cundiff struggles at (50+ yard FGs) is something we should rarely be doing anyway.


I would listen to you over anyone on breaking down kickers and the Orioles. You just know your stuff when it comes to them.
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AntiSuperstar


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 4:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't believe this.
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e16bball


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One other thing worth noting about Cundiff is that 8 of his 9 misses last season went wide right (the last was short from 50 yards). Not that I particularly trust the Redskins with special teams coaching acumen, but if there was some mechanical issue causing him to push kicks like that, correcting it might mean a quick return to his 2010 success.

I'm no expert, but I'm thinking of it like when you're doing something specific (and consistent) wrong with your golf swing and getting specific (and consistent) bad results. Sometimes one small adjustment can, quite literally, straighten things out for you.

Food for thought, at least.
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 28, 2012 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The age old question, go for the solid kicker or the long range bomber. I've always sided for consistency. The 33 yard line equals a 50 yard kick. Say it's 4th and 3 at the 33. The best kickers are 50% at that range (I know Akers was 7-9 that's just nuts). In that situation I'd rather the ball in that guy Griffins hands then some kickers foot anyday. Lost a lot of games on missed field goals past few years, hopefully this and an improved blocking unit turns some into Ws
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 8:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That kick he missed against New England at the end of the Playoff game --just read he said about 7 things went wrong and it was very rushed , unlike all his previous kicks in those situations.
Surely-- he could have called timeout himself and got things settled. Why didn't he - ?? He's like the QB in that situation ,,if all isn't correct --call the timeout !
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 29, 2012 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

e16bball, I like how you elided the fact that Cundiff has been bouncing around the NFL since 2002. Yes, you mentioned that since his return to the NFL, he's had pretty good stats. However, what is the total picture on our new kicker?

Cundiff, 2002-9
FG: 78-106, 73.5% overall [30-30 (100%) <30, 21-30 (70.0%) 30-39, 20-31 (64.5%) 40-49, 4-12 (33.3%) 50+]
KO: 209 kicks, 62.2 avg, 11 touchbacks (5.2%)

Then the odometer on Cundiff rolls around to 30 and you get:
Cundiff, 2010
FG: 26 of 29, 89.7% overall [11-11 (100%) <30, 8-9 (88.9%) 30-39, 7-8 (87.5%) 40-49, 0-1 (0.0%) 50+]
KO: 79 kicks, 71.1 avg, 40 touchbacks (50.6%)

He follows up his career year with:
FG: 28-37, 75.7% overall [9-9 (100%) <30, 10-12 (83.3%) 30-39, 7-9 (77.8%) 40-49, 1-6 (16.7%) 50+]
KO: 76 kicks, 67.8 avg, 44 touchbacks (57.9%)

Of course, the touchback number is raised for 2011 due to kickoffs from the 35 instead of the 30.

So, we now have a 32 year old kicker who was able to add over 7 yards per kick on his kickoffs after he turned the big 3-0 (69.5 avg over the last two years vs. 62.2). 30.3% of his field goals since 2010 have been inside of 30 yards. To his credit, he has never missed a close field goal like that, something Gano cannot claim. However, his "kicker range" kicks (30-49) reverted somewhat to his mean last year as did his kickoff average.

Basically: can a guy have a significant rebirth of his career after the age of 30? Sure, it's possible. Do we want to bet on this long-term? That's a dicey prospect in my mind. Was he better than Gano? Given that the coaching staff apparently had no confidence in Graham (bringing in Rackers and then immediately cutting Gano when Cundiff was available), I guess we'll find out.
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