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2013 One Round Mock With Discussion.
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EccentricFan


Joined: 05 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 6:44 pm    Post subject: 2013 One Round Mock With Discussion. Reply with quote

First off, the all important team order. It's based solely off the over/under on wins for the season. With ties I left it in the same order Vegas reported them. So there's no point arguing with me over that.

For the actual picks, I encourage you to rip my mock to shreds. I'm neither a college football guru nor an expert on your team, so I do expect some pretty blatant errors despite all the hours I put into research. Hopefully I'll learn something I can use to improve on my next one.

At the very least, I'm over 60% certain I didn't give the same player to more than one team. Laughing

1. Jaguars - Matt Barkley, QB - If the Jaguars are picking first, I doubt they'll be able to pass up Matt Barkley.

2. Colts - Robert Woods, WR - A good combination of BPA and need. The Colts pick up another weapon to give Luck.

3. Browns - David Amerson, CB - The first difficult decision of the draft. If the Browns sit at number 3, they're going to have to do some serious soul searching. Do they use a #1 pick on a QB two years in a row? I think it's a close call, and if Barkley fell to them I doubt they'd be able to resist. But given the option of taking the second QB on the board at the #3 pick, they go with the top CB instead.

4. Vikings - Tyler Wilson, QB - The Vikings gave Ponder another shot after adding Kalil for protection, and still ended up picking fourth. The Vikings could keep trying to build around Ponder, but with a showing like this, I have them taking a chance on Tyler Wilson becoming a franchise QB instead.

5. Buccaneers - Star Lotulelei, DT - Buccaneers are in a tough spot here. They'd have loved to take David Amerson, but he's already off the board, and it's a bit early for options such a RT or safety, especially given the talent available. I expect they'd try to trade down here, but I'm not doing trades in this mock. Stuck at #5, they'd give the honey badger a sniff or two, but in the end, I expect them to stick with their board and take the top DT. It might not be their largest need, but they can certainly put him to use right away.

6. Rams - D.J. Fluker, OT - Thanks to their trade with the Redskins, they get two pick in a row. With the first one, they address their offensive line and take D.J. Fluker. At the very least he's an extremely skilled RT, and could potentially be moved to LT. With a performance like this, it will be hot seat year for Sam Bradford, but whoever they end up as the Rams QB in 2014, they'll be better protected with this pick.

7. Rams - Keenan Allen, WR - This was an extremely difficult pick for me to make. There just weren't any options I was thrilled with. The rams address WR, RB, and CB last year, and it would be a lot easier if I had some way of knowing which picks would excel and which would disappoint. OLB would be option, but I don't think there are any worthy of this pick that would fit in the Ram's 4-3 system.

Anyway, Keenan Allen is higher on my board than any RB or the remaining CBs. And even if Quick surpasses all expectations, the Rams could still make good use of Keenan.

8. Cardinals - Jarvis Jones, OLB - Clark Haggans will be 36 going into this draft. Jarvis Jones is a blue chip talent who fits well with the Cardinals 3-4 defense. The Cardinals could certainly go with a QB here, but it's hard to pass up talent like this falling into their lap.

9. Raiders - Logan Thomas, QB - Honestly, my first thought would not have been to give the Raiders a QB here. Carson Palmer hasn't been putting up the kind of numbers that would generally indicate a QB whose job is at risk. Nevertheless, researching the issue I saw a lot of claims Palmer is a poor fit for Oakland's offense as he simply isn't mobile enough. Regressing to 7-9 as the over/under would indicate wouldn't favor him either, and there's no denying Palmer isn't as young as he used to be.

Logan Thomas reportedly can run at close to a 4.6 40, so he could give the Raiders the mobile QB and being fresh from the draft will be young enough that he might be the long term answer to the position.

10. Seahawks - Sean Porter, OLB - This pick was another challenging one, simply because there are so many conflicting opinions on what the Seahawk's actual needs are. That said, OLB does seem to be the most consistent answer. I still think he's something of a reach here, but not a big one. And I do believe he's the best option for the position in the Seahawk's defense in the draft.

11. Bills - Sam Montgomery, DE - Finally at my Bills, and I've just confirmed how much I hate the way this draft fell for them. After adding all the talent they did, and having an easy schedule this year, they only went from picking 10th to 11th. At this point they'd want to look for a replacement for Fitzpatrick, but for the second year in a row, three QBs have gone in the top 10.

Giving Fitz a new weapon with a WR would be the number two choice, but two of them have been taken as well, and it looks to be a pretty steep drop to #3. OLB is a larger need than DE, but even their best option there got snapped up one spot before them. The best RB in the draft is still on the board, so maybe I should change my pick to that, given this is Buddy Nix picking. But Spiller jokes aside, I believe they'd add another option to plug in opposite Mario Williams.

Mark Anderson is a pass rushing specialist, but that's about it. Chris Kelsay will be turning 34 during the 2013 season and isn't any good at the pass rush. If Sam Montgomery can put on some weight, he'd be a good option to at the very least add into a rotation to keep the DE fresh, and has a good chance to be a significant upgrade as a starter.

12. Titans - Barrett Jones, OL - The Titans will consider a Safety here, but I think they'll choose to instead go with the versatile Barrett Jones. He's done well at both Guard and Tackle and looks to be getting experience at Center this year. Where exactly the Titans choose to put him may depend on how that experiment goes, but given the Titan's needs at OL, they'll be thankful for the options in addition to the talent.

13. Dolphins - Justin Hunter, WR - I believe this is a reach, but not an eye popping one. I'd look for them to try to trade down a little before making the selection of they could, but even here there were worse reaches this year, as I do think Hunter is first round talent, if late first round. If they want Tannehill to succeed, they need to get him some targets. Ochocinco may help, but not in the long term.

Given that you'll probably see the next two WRs off the board before their next pick, I say they'll take their man and ignore the commenters saying it was poor value.

14. Panthers - Johnathon Hankins, DT - The Panthers are quite happy with how this draft fell. Hankins is great value at pick 14 and fits a need.

15. Bengals - Marcus Lattimore, RB - I don't think BenJarvus has enough talent to convince the Bengals to pass on the top RB in the draft at #15. Especially since he's right up there as one of the top talents left on the board.

16. Chiefs - Manti Te'o, ILB - The bad news is all the first round quality QBs are already off the board, so any fans hoping for an upgrade to Cassel will have to hope someone falls to them at the second round, as I don't think the chiefs are so desperate as to reach for one here, seeing as they did improve from 2012. Although I wouldn't be surprised if they tried to trade up in round 2 to jump teams like the Cardinals and Bills that might also be the market for QB.

The good news is, they don't really have any major weaknesses elsewhere, so they draft for value without worry. I believe Manti Te'o is a good value pick here that would be a nice tool for the Chiefs to use.

17. Jets - Chris Faulk, OT - I'm beginning to regret trying to pick what's best for each team instead of forcing the draft the direction I want to go. Granted the dolphins suffered a bit with the Bills, but the Jets are getting pretty good value at a major area of need. Teams will have to say goodbye to exploiting Wayne Hunter at RT.

18. Cowboys - T.J. McDonald, S - There was a lot of talk about Dallas being interested in Mark Barron. Smokescreen or not, they may find themselves with the chance to grab the best Safety in the 2013 draft.

19. Bears - Ricky Wagner, OT - Wagner is going to be playing LT this year, and if he shows promise, the Bears could grab him, hoping to upgrade J'Marcus Webb.

20. Falcons - Tyler Eifert, TE - Might be a little high for a Tight End, but the Falcons have the need, and Tyler Eifert does look to have talent. It should make for a nice fit.

21. Chargers - Tyrann Mathieu, CB - Quentin Jammer will be 34 before the 2014 season starts, and conerbacks don't generally have top class longetivity at their position. So I feel cornerback is the best choice given they have a couple of good options here. The question comes down to if they prefer the size of the 6'2 Johnthan Banks (whose name I had to triple check the spelling on) or the raw talent of the 5'9 Tyrann Mathieu.

If Chargers fans believe their team has other priorities, then correct me, but I went with the Honey Badger.

22. Lions - Johnthan Banks, CB - Quite likely the Lions take whichever CB the Chargers pass on. In this case that's Johnthan Banks. He'd be nice addition to the Lion's defensive backfield.

23. Giants - Jake Matthews, OT - The giants addressed their Offensive line too late in the 2012 draft for me to have confidence they won't be looking at it again come 2013. There are still a few options left close enough in talent that it's even more of a shot in the dark than is the case with the rest of this draft which one will come out ahead after this season. I went with Jake Matthews. Eli Manning with extra protection would make the Giants even more dangerous, even if he didn't help open up the run game.

24. Broncos - Barkevious Mingo, DE - Not exactly an area of weakness, but then again, where do they have a major weakness? There's been some success to the strategy of having a good collection of DEs to rotate in and keep them fresh, and given this is the best value left of the board, the Broncos decide to take him. Already having a strong defense, it's popular in a lot of drafts to help Peyton on the offense.

In this draft though, I consider any RBs, WRs, or TEs to be reaches. I could give Denver help on the line, but I'm going BPA.

25. 49ers - Luke Joeckel, OT - Do the 49ers really need anything? An elite QB and they'd be a top favorite to win the superbowl. They're not likely to find one to upgrade Alex Smith here though, so I went with OT. Anthony Davis did give up 10 sacks in 2011, so they might give him some competition.

26. Ravens - Brandon Jenkins, OLB - One area the Ravens could still stand to improve on is the pass rush. I don't think Brandon Jenkins will have any trouble transitioning from a 4-3 DE to a 3-4 OLB and helping with just that.

27. Steelers - Eric Reid, S - They may try for a Nose Tackle if Alameda Ta'amu doesn't work out. Even then, they have better value at safety which they did even less to address in the 2012 draft. It might not stick out at you as a Steelers need, but Ryan Clark will turn 34 during the 2013 season and Troy Polamalu isn't too far behind him.

Getting younger at the position seems like a good idea.

28. Saints - Jackson Jeffcoat, DE – Not picking until the third round hurt the saints, but in 2013 they'll have a chance to address their defensive line, and Jackson Jeffcoat should help them quite nicely with that.

29. Eagles - Xavier Rhodes, CB – The draft has fallen quite like the Eagles probably wanted it to. Even late in the first round, I'm just not seeing value at another safety or OLB going. Still, eagles could actually be in the market for a new cornerback in 2013, and I don't project Xavier to be a reach here.

30. Texans - Oday Aboushi, OT – The Texans want to find a replacement for salary cap casualty Eric Winston. Even with four offensive tackles already of the board, I think there's one more option left with first round talent.

31. Patriots - Kawann Short, DT – I don't know if anyone but Belichick knows how much 4-3 vs 3-4 he'll be doing in 2013. Based on his draft this year, it looks like he's leaning towards 4-3, and if so, Kawann Short would add talent and youth to the tackle position at a great value for the 31st pick.

32. Packers - Montee Ball, RB – Understandably the Packers went defense in a big way in the 2012 draft. I have them using the final pick of the first round to at least touch base with their offense again. Half back one area their offense could still be improved upon, which makes Montee Ball a logical choice.


Last edited by EccentricFan on Fri Jun 15, 2012 6:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Bad meets Evil


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tyler Wilson > Matt Barkley
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bucstopshere


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

if we are picking top 5, QB is obviously the problem.....
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EccentricFan


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bad meets Evil wrote:
Tyler Wilson > Matt Barkley


Heh, I don't know if there's ever been a draft where you could get even 90% of the population to agree on who was the best quarterback. When 2013 comes around I may very well agree with you, but Tyler has to prove to me he can improve his focus under pressure.

There's no such thing as a sure thing in the draft, but I'm not a gambler, and I'll pick the safe option over the boom or bust upsides every time. For now, the consensus seems to be in my favor, for as little as that's worth. Laughing
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EccentricFan


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucstopshere wrote:
if we are picking top 5, QB is obviously the problem.....


Perhaps so. I just didn't immediately jump at QB for them as I have more respect for Josh Freeman than I do for the likes of QBs such as Ponder, Sanchez, Skelton, Kolb, Gabbert and Henne. I was even going to be so kind as to rate him above Fitzpatrick, and I actually think Fitz is better than most people give him credit for.

I'm not sure it changes anything. I'd put him right around Carson Palmer in my ratings and I was hesitant to give the raiders the third QB at 9. That's despite this mock actually having them regressing all the way from 17th to 9th pick instead of simply staying in the same spot.

Whatever order you personally put the QBs in, would you want your team reaching for the third QB off the board in the number 5 spot? And while they wouldn't have this as foreknowledge, the Buccaneers are in a very good position to go for the number 4 QB if I extend this to a second round as I hope to do eventually.
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green24


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would give the Jets Mingo at 17. If Vlad Ducasse doesn't turn into a viable starter by here, the RT is more likely to be addressed through FA.
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EccentricFan


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 8:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

green24 wrote:
I would give the Jets Mingo at 17. If Vlad Ducasse doesn't turn into a viable starter by here, the RT is more likely to be addressed through FA.


If I started considering the FA as a potential to fill in holes, this whole mock would be out the door. Nevertheless, you do have me musing making the change. I have Mingo higher on my board than Chris Faulk, so from a purely BPA standpoint, he's the better choice.

On the other hand, the Jets just drafted an OLB in the third round. I generally like to give teams a honeymoon period on their high round draft picks and assume everyone struck gold on every pick until after we've seen them play in the NFL.
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ninjaneer


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Right now, Im on the Landry Jones to Dallas bandwagon. Drafting a QB high in 2013 would give him a good chance to learn behind Romo and Orton for a couple years (ala Rogers) and push for a starting job by 2015...I say this with the expectation that Dallas will be picking towards the end of round one...
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You had me at Marcus Lattimore. Would be thrilled with that pick...
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 5:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wagner isn’t a next level LT…he is a less talented Gabe Carimi IMO and the Bears don’t view him as a LT so I doubt they would look at Wagner as one…with the way your board is sitting we should go with one of the best defensive playmaker available…Mingo, Banks, Reid, Rhodes or my personal favourite Kawann Short would all be better picks IMO.
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 6:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Would much rather take Tyler Bray or Wilson (even Logan Thomas) over Barkley, but since Gene's job is tied to Blaine Gabbert, give us one of Woods or Mingo.
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Could be a solid Vikings pick, it really depends on the progression of Ponder, if he shows any improvement, I don't see the team giving up on him, even with picking 4th there could be a myriad of reasons for it. DT and WR right now are the most likely Vikings picks.
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EccentricFan


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Madmike90 wrote:
Wagner isn’t a next level LT…he is a less talented Gabe Carimi IMO and the Bears don’t view him as a LT so I doubt they would look at Wagner as one…with the way your board is sitting we should go with one of the best defensive playmaker available…Mingo, Banks, Reid, Rhodes or my personal favourite Kawann Short would all be better picks IMO.


Now this is the sort of interesting commentary I like, but why don't you feel Wagner is a LT? Is it arm length? I'm find it next to impossible to find that stat for players at this early stage.

The fact he hasn't proven he can does weigh on my rating of him. Still, teams will take tackles who have never played the left side and try to move them there. Wagner is going to get experience this year, and scouts will be able to judge for themselves. Barring a physical limit of short arms ala Reiff, I think it's a bit early to outright say he can't do it.

Regardless, I believe I've been convinced to switch the Jets to Mingo, which would change the Bears' pick to Chris Faulk. Feel any better about him?
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EccentricFan


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its A Sabotage wrote:
Would much rather take Tyler Bray or Wilson (even Logan Thomas) over Barkley, but since Gene's job is tied to Blaine Gabbert, give us one of Woods or Mingo.


Would Gene still have his job if the Jaguars finish last this year? That's not sarcasm, I'm honestly not in touch with the job security of all the GMs around the league.

Anyway, as I've already mentioned, I value safety. Barkley does not look to be the next Andrew Luck, but he's by far the least likely 1st round QB candidate to completely crash and burn. I'll sometimes do it later in the round, but we're talking the #1 pick, I am simply not going to spend it on a pick with lots of bust potential.

At least not unless I'm picking for a GM that proved they like that kind of risk, ala Tannenbaum. Is one of the Tylers or Logan Thomas likely to surpass Barkley this season? Yes. But I don't know which one, and for now each of them has too many question marks for me to have them first off the board.
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Madmike90


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

EccentricFan wrote:
Madmike90 wrote:
Wagner isn’t a next level LT…he is a less talented Gabe Carimi IMO and the Bears don’t view him as a LT so I doubt they would look at Wagner as one…with the way your board is sitting we should go with one of the best defensive playmaker available…Mingo, Banks, Reid, Rhodes or my personal favourite Kawann Short would all be better picks IMO.


Now this is the sort of interesting commentary I like, but why don't you feel Wagner is a LT? Is it arm length? I'm find it next to impossible to find that stat for players at this early stage.

The fact he hasn't proven he can does weigh on my rating of him. Still, teams will take tackles who have never played the left side and try to move them there. Wagner is going to get experience this year, and scouts will be able to judge for themselves. Barring a physical limit of short arms ala Reiff, I think it's a bit early to outright say he can't do it.

Regardless, I believe I've been convinced to switch the Jets to Mingo, which would change the Bears' pick to Chris Faulk. Feel any better about him?


I don’t feel Wagner has the feet or overall movement skills to play on the blindside…having watched him play RT when Carimi was at Wisconsin I think that is his natural position and as I said before I don’t feel he is as talented as Carimi was coming out…Wagner certainly didn’t dominate the way Carimi did at LT last year for the Badgers altho he was solid…if the Bears don’t view Carimi as a LT then I can’t see any reason to view Wagner as one…Faulk would be a little better as I feel he does have a shot to play LT in a PBS at the next level…as much as it is slightly blind faith right now I don’t feel LT will be as big an issue by next year’s draft…Martz scheme made our Oline look far worse than it really was…with Mike Tice being more conservative we should see an improvement in Webb’s (or Chris Williams) play at LT which would allow us to continue the turnover on defence.
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