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SoS's Fantasy Questions: Atlanta Falcons

 
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SaveourSonics


Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45415
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 10:45 pm    Post subject: SoS's Fantasy Questions: Atlanta Falcons Reply with quote

How's it going guys!? I'm sure many of you know me as the rambunctious Seattle homer that posts way too much.

Well in my spare time during this time of the season I usually run a Fantasy Football Advice thread for those of you that are into that kinda thing. Check out the 2012 thread I'll be making soon!

Anyways, I just had a few questions to ensure that I'm not ignorant with any advice I provide this offseason. That's why I've come up with a batch of clarifying questions for all 32 teams and getting my facts straight. Thanks to everyone that helps in advance!

Questions
1. Michael Turner started to slow down at the end of last season. Do you guys expect him to be a top 7 fantasy back again this season or will we start to see him regress? Should fantasy owners be looking out for Rodgers or Snelling if Turner doesn't perform?

2. Roddy White vs Julio Jones has been debated heavily recently. Which one would you rather own? Considering White is a volume receiver, how do you expect the targets to be divided between the two?

3. Do you guys expect Tony Gonzalez to once again be a top 7 fantasy TE?
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matt2roddy


Joined: 21 Dec 2011
Posts: 946
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) I wouldn't draft Turner until round 7. We have said multiple times that we are trying to limit Turners touches this year. Although I do question the legitimacy of that statement, many people including myself think that JacQuizz Rodgers will break out this year meaning WR won't have to give Turner as many carries anyway
2) I would take Julio over Roddy now. Both are excellent options. Julio will have more yards + TDs. Roddy will have more receptions.
3) I'd probably expect 700 yards and 7 TDs from Tony because of Harry Dougls' increased role in our new offense.
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CrazyFalcon84


Joined: 30 Jul 2011
Posts: 174
Location: New Jersey
PostPosted: Tue Jun 12, 2012 11:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Turner will most likely regress but he is still a top back i will say he will be top 7. He might not be that big of a work horse but he will gain rest and hav better runs and better games. Look out for Rodgers only if it is a PPR type of league because he will get most if not all of the catches from the backfield n i think he can make some big plays.

2) I like both WR but if i had 2 take one i will go with Roddy because of experience n he is the #1 guy...Julio will be a great fantasy WR because he makes big plays but i just see Roddy having a better year in fantasy exspecially if it is a PPR league.

3)Tony will hav a smaller role but he is still a top 7 TE because i just don't see 7 other TE that will hav a better year than him. Laughing

All of my answers is just based off my personal opinion n i hope it helps.
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Willthethrill_H


Joined: 15 Jan 2012
Posts: 641
Location: Birmingham, AL
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. I would happily have Turner as my second back. And would take a shot on JaQuizz in a late round as a week to week flex play.

2. As much as I want both to be the top 2 receivers in the nfl, it's not possible. I think Julio had a good year last year considering his injury. And Roddy underachieved by far. I can't pick between the two but when it comes to risk vs reward, Julio has a much higher reward with a slight risk, while Roddy is a much safer pick but won't have as good a chance at a huge 180 yard 2 TD game.

3. Tony is still healthy and well disciplined. He was a great TE last year, and will still be Matt's favorite target in the redzone. And he might drop 1 of every 50 good passes.
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adam9


Joined: 06 Jan 2011
Posts: 14064
Location: Kennesaw, GA
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 9:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt2roddy wrote:
1) I wouldn't draft Turner until round 7. We have said multiple times that we are trying to limit Turners touches this year. Although I do question the legitimacy of that statement, many people including myself think that JacQuizz Rodgers will break out this year meaning WR won't have to give Turner as many carries anyway
2) I would take Julio over Roddy now. Both are excellent options. Julio will have more yards + TDs. Roddy will have more receptions.
3) I'd probably expect 700 yards and 7 TDs from Tony because of Harry Dougls' increased role in our new offense.

This is pretty much how I feel. On all 3 subjects..
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Olympia Martin


Joined: 04 Dec 2005
Posts: 6176
Location: N.Y.
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 1:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here is my take coming from a multiple league multiple title winning fantasy guru. Haha.

1) I won't touch Turner. Let someone else have him. Think of it this way when RB's approach the dreaded end the dropoff can be so significant. I think back to the days I took Shaun Alexander 7th overall. Its too much risk. Let someone else take that risk on. What we know about Turner is his carries will decrease significantly. I think his upside is 1100 yards and 10 TD's. No receiving threat at all. He'll come out during all passing situations. Basically he is a 15 carry back with goal line duties. Not enough upside. As a #4 RB maybe. Find a good matchup and he could be useful. He is going to be a guy that blows up for 135 and 2td's on week and next week has 56 yards. Too variable for me. If you are in a PPR league he might not even be a top 20 back let along a top 7 RB. Snelling and Rodgers will eat into his carries this year but i don't know which one I would want. Both are probably waiver wire acquisitions to me at this point. Bank on that and bank of Turner not approaching the top 10 for sure in RB points.

2. Roddy vs. Julio is interesting. Roddy had a down year last season despite his targets. I think Roddy performs to the same level as he did in 2011. Julio at full strength will likely have a better YPC average but less receptions. Possibly more TD's but that is too difficult to predict. This would be the last season I would say take your pick. You know what Roddy will give you. He is consistent. Julio just has that upside factor. I don't think Julio's floor is much lower than Roddy's so I might go with Julio. Every year going forward I think you will see a changing of the guard and Julio will provide more explosive plays and becomes the better fantasy option.

3. Gonzo's year last season was predicated on TD's. Dirk Koetter's new offense will likely lean on the WR's in the red zone. I think Gonzo drops back into the top 10-12 range amongst fantasy TE's.
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SaveourSonics


Joined: 20 Apr 2008
Posts: 45415
Location: Sleepless in Seattle
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting, thanks. Yea, I wasn't high on Gonzo going into this season.
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
Posts: 1849
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Turner is still a good #2 option on any fantasy team. I would draft him in the 4-6 round range. He still will get his TDs and should get over 1100 yards. I wouldn't consider him top 7, probably top 15 which still isn't too bad. I wouldn't really consider picking up Snelling or Quizz in standard leagues. They will get their touches, especially Quizz according to the coaches, but they won't be fantasy relevant unless Turner goes down.

2) If you want to go with the safe pick get Roddy. Ryan and him have chemistry, and Roddy's been extremely consistent over the years. Julio I think will have more touchdowns, but may be more inconsistent. He carries a higher risk but has the potential to be a top 3 fantasy receiver as well.

3) Gonzo once again will be a reliable fantasy TE. He never seems to regress, and I don't think he will this year too much. Ryan will always look for him on 3rd downs and in the redzone.
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D0 TH3 D3W


Joined: 13 Jul 2008
Posts: 826
Location: South Florida
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 4:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Olympia Martin wrote:
Here is my take coming from a multiple league multiple title winning fantasy guru. Haha.

1) I won't touch Turner. Let someone else have him. Think of it this way when RB's approach the dreaded end the dropoff can be so significant. I think back to the days I took Shaun Alexander 7th overall. Its too much risk. Let someone else take that risk on. What we know about Turner is his carries will decrease significantly. I think his upside is 1100 yards and 10 TD's. No receiving threat at all. He'll come out during all passing situations. Basically he is a 15 carry back with goal line duties. Not enough upside. As a #4 RB maybe. Find a good matchup and he could be useful. He is going to be a guy that blows up for 135 and 2td's on week and next week has 56 yards. Too variable for me. If you are in a PPR league he might not even be a top 20 back let along a top 7 RB. Snelling and Rodgers will eat into his carries this year but i don't know which one I would want. Both are probably waiver wire acquisitions to me at this point. Bank on that and bank of Turner not approaching the top 10 for sure in RB points.

2. Roddy vs. Julio is interesting. Roddy had a down year last season despite his targets. I think Roddy performs to the same level as he did in 2011. Julio at full strength will likely have a better YPC average but less receptions. Possibly more TD's but that is too difficult to predict. This would be the last season I would say take your pick. You know what Roddy will give you. He is consistent. Julio just has that upside factor. I don't think Julio's floor is much lower than Roddy's so I might go with Julio. Every year going forward I think you will see a changing of the guard and Julio will provide more explosive plays and becomes the better fantasy option.

3. Gonzo's year last season was predicated on TD's. Dirk Koetter's new offense will likely lean on the WR's in the red zone. I think Gonzo drops back into the top 10-12 range amongst fantasy TE's.

I agree with everything this man said. On point, sir.
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FalconAttack


Joined: 06 Jan 2008
Posts: 381
Location: Atlanta
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 9:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If I have a late pick in my 12/team draft...

Arrow 1) Roddy
Arrow 2) Julio
Arrow 3) M Turner
Arrow 4) B Lloyd
Arrow 5) M Ryan

For it is written 2012 is the year of the Falcons.
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Willthethrill_H


Joined: 15 Jan 2012
Posts: 641
Location: Birmingham, AL
PostPosted: Fri Jun 15, 2012 11:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

FalconAttack wrote:
If I have a late pick in my 12/team draft...

Arrow 1) Roddy
Arrow 2) Julio
Arrow 3) M Turner
Arrow 4) B Lloyd
Arrow 5) M Ryan

For it is written 2012 is the year of the Falcons.


Lloyd won't be a 4th rounder in my opinion. He was above average in Denver and Saint Louis. With Tom Brady and how much they are passing, I wouldn't be surprised to see him as a top 7 reciever. The only things to consider are how many targets will get vs. Welker and Gronk.
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sammymvpknight


Joined: 22 Feb 2005
Posts: 3399
PostPosted: Wed Jun 27, 2012 8:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

1) Year after year people are expecting to drop off and the Falcons move to a pass base attack. The problem is that Ryan isn't that kind of QB. He is a good QB when Turner is playing well. Quiz looks like a decent scat back, but he is not a full-time runner and will likely be used on 3rd downs and distance downs. I don't see that affecting Turner because Turner has never been a third down back. Nothing new. What hurts Turner is his age and the fact that he has never contributed in the passing game. In a PPR league he is a weak #2...but I would say that he is still a pretty strong #2 in standard leagues.

2) Jones is the better WR. Bar none. He has the ability to catch a 10 yard pass and break it all the way. That is key in the Falcons offense where Matt Ryan is still an awful downfield passer. I see Julio as a legit #2 WR this year...as is Roddy...but with Julio a bit higher because of his big play ability.

3) I still see Gonzo as a top 7 TE...but he won't put up the numbers he put up last season. I see Jones' role expanding and he will get lots of the middle of the field looks that Gonzo got last year, and I see him also stealing a few TDs away from Gonzo. Gonzo is as old as dirt...but the guy is a freak of nature and I wouldn't take age much into consideration until he actually starts showing his age. I would take him as a weak #1 or strong #2.
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