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Realistic Predictions for Patriots this Regular Season
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Pats#1


Joined: 19 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:17 am    Post subject: Realistic Predictions for Patriots this Regular Season Reply with quote

Well I think we can all agree that expectations are very high for this upcoming season...after coming off another ( Crying or Very sad ) superbowl loss to the giants, its looks like they have at least tried to address some of the teams weaknesses.

I think the team will again be the offensive powerhouse it usually is with the defense pretty much playing the same role as last season, don't give up too many points, but maybe a bit better...hopefully.

I think we can also all agree that the Patriots very well could make it all the way again this season, so i'm just wondering what your guys' thoughts were on how the regular season pans out and why:

My Prediction: (Gave reasoning where thought it was necessary)

Week 1: @ Titans W
Week 2: Cardinals W
Week 3: @ Ravens W (Defense isn't the same without Suggs)
Week 4: @ Bills W
Week 5: Broncos W (Will be a close game, 24 - 31
Week 6: @ Seahawks W
Week 7: Jets W
Week 8: @ Rams W
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Bills W
Week 11: Colts W
Week 12: @ Jets W
Week 13: @ Dolphins W
Week 14: Texans L (Foster establishes run and opens up field for Schaub, Texans defense holds strong) 21 - 17

Week 15: 49ers L (Same situation as week before)
Week 16: @ Jags
Week 17: Dolphins

I think both games they lose are honestly a toss up....but I don't want to predict an undefeated season.
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Sciz


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have no reason to believe that the Patriots aren't better than every team they play against next season.
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Pats#1


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sciz wrote:
I have no reason to believe that the Patriots aren't better than every team they play against next season.


I completely agree...I just don't want to be that guy that predicts an undefeated season, and crazy stuff always happens. Those were the two teams that I thought could give them the biggest problems tho, since they were so well balanced.

Ravens would be another one, but Suggs being gone is going to definitely hurt them.
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Jaymun


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

13-3, with 2 losses coming from 2 of: Broncos, Texans, Niners, Ravens. The other loss coming from any divisional game.
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Pats#1


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 1:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaymun wrote:
13-3, with 2 losses coming from 2 of: Broncos, Texans, Niners, Ravens. The other loss coming from any divisional game.


If Peyton can run the offense as successfully in Denver as he did in Indy, and stay healthy (biggest ?), then that team will definitely be dangerous with the solid defense they have....I honestly don't think he is going to be as good as people think tho. I think its going to take time to get everyone to mesh correctly, and I'm scared to see what happens when he takes his first big hit from behind.

Texans and Niners I see being more dangerous than the Ravens...simply because we face the Ravens early in the season and they won't have their best defensive player on the field. With the pressure from Suggs gone, I think Brady will be able to keep the Ravens defense at bay.

I completely agree with one of the divisional games now that you mention it. There are always crazy things that happen, and with playing the bills and jets twice, its a definite possibility one of those games just isn't the Pats day.
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BP


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:22 am    Post subject: Re: Realistic Predictions for Patriots this Regular Season Reply with quote

Week 1: @ Titans W (If Locker starts and really improves off of last year, I could see this being a pretty good opening game.)
Week 2: Cardinals W (Pats defense has to stand up)
Week 3: @ Ravens W (By week 3, the Pats should have their heads screwed on pretty tight. The Ravens however probably wont.)
Week 4: @ Bills L (First look at the new Bills in person. This is the game I'm most looking forward to, I like the current Pats/Bills rivalry. My bet is on a Bills upset.)
Week 5: Broncos W (Upset in the lurks maybe later in the playoffs, but by week 5 Peyton Manning still wont be ready to handle the heavy hitting stuff Belichick will throw at him. Not to mention McDaniels will have revenge on his mind for a little added motivation to the game plan.)
Week 6: @ Seahawks W (Injuries could play a bigger role in this game with the travel to the West Coast affecting the rest of the players. If Marshawn Lynch is playing, Matt Flynn has been starting, and Sidney Rice is holding up OK after his shoulder surgeries then combine that with Seattles tough defense, I give them a winning chance.)
Week 7: Jets L (Run game will be hard to stop and Sanchez will be having his best year to date.)
Week 8: @ Rams W
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Bills W (Coming off the bye, should be an easy win. By this point Buffalo has or will start to lose steam from their early season success.)
Week 11: Colts W (Again, more competitive than you'd think right now, given the Colts are completely rebuilding, but the defense is too porous and the offense too young to really hold up through 4 quarters with a contender like New England.)
Week 12: @ Jets W (Grudge match, Pats are peaking at the right time wile New York maintains balance with its playing level.)
Week 13: @ Dolphins W
Week 14: Texans W (I think the Texans are a walking wounded bunch and their talent doesn't match that of the Patriots, especially with depth this late in the season.)
Week 15: 49ers W (I see a lot of talent added on offense but not a lot of chemistry and Harbaugh getting away from the philosophy that made his teams successful prior to 2012. Pats are well enough equipped to=o meet the challenge of the San Francisco defense.)
Week 16: @ Jags W
Week 17: Dolphins L (Rested starters, late season game, Dolphins are actually a formidable sub-.500 team without Garrad starting.)
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Pats#1


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:31 pm    Post subject: Re: Realistic Predictions for Patriots this Regular Season Reply with quote

BP wrote:
Week 1: @ Titans W (If Locker starts and really improves off of last year, I could see this being a pretty good opening game.)
Week 2: Cardinals W (Pats defense has to stand up)
Week 3: @ Ravens W (By week 3, the Pats should have their heads screwed on pretty tight. The Ravens however probably wont.)
Week 4: @ Bills L (First look at the new Bills in person. This is the game I'm most looking forward to, I like the current Pats/Bills rivalry. My bet is on a Bills upset.)
Week 5: Broncos W (Upset in the lurks maybe later in the playoffs, but by week 5 Peyton Manning still wont be ready to handle the heavy hitting stuff Belichick will throw at him. Not to mention McDaniels will have revenge on his mind for a little added motivation to the game plan.)
Week 6: @ Seahawks W (Injuries could play a bigger role in this game with the travel to the West Coast affecting the rest of the players. If Marshawn Lynch is playing, Matt Flynn has been starting, and Sidney Rice is holding up OK after his shoulder surgeries then combine that with Seattles tough defense, I give them a winning chance.)
Week 7: Jets L (Run game will be hard to stop and Sanchez will be having his best year to date.)
Week 8: @ Rams W
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: Bills W (Coming off the bye, should be an easy win. By this point Buffalo has or will start to lose steam from their early season success.)
Week 11: Colts W (Again, more competitive than you'd think right now, given the Colts are completely rebuilding, but the defense is too porous and the offense too young to really hold up through 4 quarters with a contender like New England.)
Week 12: @ Jets W (Grudge match, Pats are peaking at the right time wile New York maintains balance with its playing level.)
Week 13: @ Dolphins W
Week 14: Texans W (I think the Texans are a walking wounded bunch and their talent doesn't match that of the Patriots, especially with depth this late in the season.)
Week 15: 49ers W (I see a lot of talent added on offense but not a lot of chemistry and Harbaugh getting away from the philosophy that made his teams successful prior to 2012. Pats are well enough equipped to=o meet the challenge of the San Francisco defense.)
Week 16: @ Jags W
Week 17: Dolphins L (Rested starters, late season game, Dolphins are actually a formidable sub-.500 team without Garrad starting.)


Much Different prediction than mine but I gotta say that all those losses are more than capable of happening.

I honestly think that if the Jets had the right locker room mind set and everyone meshed well, this would be a very good team, but that's not the case, and I have a feeling that Tebow mania will only make things worse.

Seattle is definitely going to be tougher than a lot people would suspect I'm guessing as well. They seem to be improving a bit, their stadium is crazy to play at, and they always have that big upset mindset coming into these big games. They definitely have a tendency to raise their play when facing great teams.

The Bills I can see happening, but only under the circumstances they lost last year. Brady and offense have a ridiculous amount of lousy turnovers only to lose by a small margin. The defense of the Bills definitely should be better this year, but I don't see Fitz and the Bills O keeping pace with Brady and company.

Dolphins I kind of agree - I say no matter what Brady and the starters play the first half, giving New England a comfortable to score lead, and then the backups come in and it turns into a close exciting game.

However, if the Pats 15-0 at that point....you know good ole BB and TB won't be looking to play it safe Twisted Evil (We can only hope they're in that position)
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 9:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

somewhere between 11-5 and 14-2 health permitting.

The defense and running game have a lot to prove and are the difference between a one-and-done playoff run as the #3 or #4 seed and a clear cut #1 AFC team who can make a deep run in January.
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samgurl775


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sciz wrote:
I have no reason to believe that the Patriots aren't better than every team they play against next season.
Yeah, I'm usually the negative nancy around here and I agree. Barring some major injuries or regression I think 14-2 is where we'll be.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 28, 2012 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

12-4 is the floor for this team, I think, barring an injury plague. The schedule is extremely favorable.
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FakingInjuries


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

14-2

We have a very good team IMO.

I like the mix of youth and veterans on Defense.
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BradyFan12


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Anyone want to guess on defensive statistics?

Total points against? (10-15th best in league)
Total sacks? (Gonna be bold and say we get top 10 in sacks)
Total interceptions? (5-10th best in league)

Even turnover ratio? Id say our turnover ratio remains high again as it is one of our best stats every year. I'll go with +7 when its all said and done.
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dhunt2402


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
somewhere between 11-5 and 14-2 health permitting.

The defense and running game have a lot to prove and are the difference between a one-and-done playoff run as the #3 or #4 seed and a clear cut #1 AFC team who can make a deep run in January.


So let me get this straight. By your reckoning

Crappy running game + bottom 3 defense + injuries = One and done as the 3 or 4 seed?

Did I not just describe the 13-3, #1 seed, Super Bowl runner up 2011 Patriots?

Do you see why yours is a ridiculously pessimistic prediction?
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dhunt2402


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think 15-1 is very doable, and 16-0 not at all out of the question. Said something similar before 07, it just feels really, really good. The defense will be able to pull it together, with the way they were playing at the end of last year (even with all the injuries) plus the infusion of talent this offseason, along with hopefully bounceback years from the likes of McCourty, Chung, etc. Brandon Lloyd is going to be a star, and apart from injuries and maybe the retirement of Waters I have almost no concerns about the offense.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 29, 2012 2:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dhunt2402 wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
somewhere between 11-5 and 14-2 health permitting.

The defense and running game have a lot to prove and are the difference between a one-and-done playoff run as the #3 or #4 seed and a clear cut #1 AFC team who can make a deep run in January.


So let me get this straight. By your reckoning

Crappy running game + bottom 3 defense + injuries = One and done as the 3 or 4 seed?


Do you see why yours is a ridiculously pessimistic prediction?


The defense last year was 15th in points and 3rd in takeaways. It is possible the team gives up more points and fewer yards.

The running game was poor, true, but we saw how that hurt them in the playoffs (specifically the Super Bowl) and we don't have any assurance it will be better. Also, the offensive line looks shakier right now (Mankins injured, mediocrity at C, Vollmer still banged up, Waters not here and who knows how much he has left)

You're ignoring the fact that other teams improve as well. You think the #3 or #4 seed is totally unlikely? Really? You think the Patriots are significantly better than the rest of the AFC field? Especially if the defense is crap again?

I don't think it's ridiculously pessimistic to think that a team which has a great passing game, weak running game and porous defense is unlikely to be a strong playoff contender. Just because some teams have those flaws and can get to the AFCCG (or NFCCG) or the Super Bowl doesn't mean that it's likely.

Also, the team last year managed to avoid serious long-term injuries to the most important players on the team (Brady, Wilfork, Mayo, Welker, Gronkowski).

If they stay healthy, and the defense improves, I expect the Pats to be in great position to get home-field advantage for the playoffs. I'm fairly optimistic about that.

But let's not act as if this team is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the AFC field if they're operating with a subpar running game and a bad D.

Quote:

Did I not just describe the 13-3, #1 seed, Super Bowl runner up 2011 Patriots?


No you didn't.

I'm also going to suggest that the Patriots run last year was fairly unlikely and the odds of taking a similarly constructed team to the #1 seed and Super Bowl are probably slim on a year-to-year basis. Andre Carter was really the only "star" player they lost to a big injury. Leigh Bodden maybe is in that class. But their starting DB's and LB's were mostly healthy (as far as you can be in the NFL, Spikes missed a few games and Mayo got dinged up early on). The non-Carter DL who were important stayed healthy. The WR corps was healthy. The TE's were mostly healthy (minus Gronk's AFCCG injury and Hernandez getting dinged up a couple of times). Brady was healthy. The team's best OL (Waters, Light, Solder, Mankins) were mostly or totally healthy through the season. The RB's were mostly healthy. As far as key players lost to injury, the Patriots were in better shape than most Super Bowl teams (and most playoff teams).

Edit: as for the 1 and done, and seeming "so pessimistic" - last year's Steelers (top 10 passing offense, top defense), 2010 Saints, 2009 Packers, 2008 Falcons & Colts....etc etc.

Good teams can get bounced in the 1st round of the playoffs. The 2012 Giants were probably a worse team than a lot of the playoff teams last year and they managed to go all the way.

Saying a team is potentially 1 and done (see 2011 Patriots) is more a suggestion that luck is a huge factor in the playoffs and even good teams get knocked out. If the team has a lot of key injuries or if the defense is horrific, there's plenty of reason to think that their margin for error to survive in the playoffs is even thinner than it usually is.

Edit #2: I'm also going to point out that saying 11-5, #3 seed and a loss in the first round of the playoffs as a "worst case scenario" isn't really that pessimistic. I think it's likely they get to at least the AFCCG (health permitting) and IMO it's crazy and unrealistic to think that the worst case scenario is a 1st round bye and a playoff win.
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