Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

2013 Offseason Top 5 Priorities?
Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Houston Texans
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
EliteTexan80


Most Valuable Poster
Joined: 30 Apr 2007
Posts: 38122
Location: Three time Mr. fanTASTic!
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:25 am    Post subject: 2013 Offseason Top 5 Priorities? Reply with quote

So, while listening to 610 Radio on my morning commute, there were some interesting names brought up in terms of who is slated to become a FA this offseason:

1. Connor Barwin (starting OLB)
2. Duane Brown (starting LT)
3. Rashard Butler (slated to start at RT)
4. Antoine Caldwell (slated to start at RG)
5. James Casey (starting FB/backup TE)
6. Shaun Cody (starting NT)
7. Brice McCain (#3 CB)
8. Matt Schaub (starting QB)
9. Glover Quin (starting SS)

(I know I'm forgetting someone...)

Anywho, a few questions:

1. How would you order the importance of these players? (1-5)
2. Who here is the one player that we simply cannot afford to lose?
3. Of your top 5, what names do you see NOT being re-signed next offseason?


My answers:

1:
- Matt Schaub
- Duane Brown
- Glover Quin
- Connor Barwin
- Brice McCain

2: Brown. There is a contingency on Matt Schaub, in that he has to stay healthy; I have him #1 because teams can win with an above average/average LT, but an above average QB is absolutely vital to win a SB. (The only instance in which there was a sub par QB win it all was the Ravens in 2000, and the Bucs in 2002...) Brown is young and never has been a health concern, so he is the most important with ALL things considered.

3. Interestingly enough, I can see a world where Connor Barwin is allowed to walk. The Texans drafted a contingency plan with Whitney Mercilius, and while I understand that we like to be three deep at the OLB rotation, it seems like another aside to that is that we like to have a rookie at the #3 OLB role. Barwin is a dynamic pass rusher, and if he were to have another 10+ sack season, I can see Mario-esque offers coming down the pipeline for him. Very well deserved, yes...but do we have the money to make such a commitment? We had to shave off some starting players to get some scratch under the cap, and we have an interesting 2014 on the dockett as well, with Brian Cushing and Antonio Smith looking for new money.

Much like the Brown contingency in point #2, I can see where an injured/underperforming Matt Schaub is allowed to go if he doesn't perform up to standards. But, right NOW...Barwin might price himself out of our range, and with Brooks Reed and Mercilius ready to take on the mantle and a DEEP draft for 3-4 OLBs in 2013, I can see Barwin as the guy they let walk. Not because we don't WANT him, but because we can't AFFORD him.
_________________

iPwn, Kempes and Flaccomania: The official sig makers for THE ET80!
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
kenney


Joined: 24 Dec 2006
Posts: 11920
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:34 am    Post subject: Re: 2013 Offseason Top 5 Priorities? Reply with quote

Answer 1. Order of players in terms of importance:
1. Schaub
2. Brown
3. Barwin (until we see what we have in Mercilus)
4. Quin
5. McCain
6. Casey
7. Cody

Answer 2: Probably Brown. Great left tackles are hard to come by.

Answer 3: Order of players in terms of who I'd like to them to keep:
1. Barwin
2. Casey
3. Brown
4. Quin
5. Schaub
6. McCain
7. Cody

Wright is probably correct that we won't be keeping Barwin, which makes me angry, because he's one of my favorite players, he's going to be a dominant OLB, and because I have a lot of reservations about offering a new contract to an over-30, often injured QB, no matter how good he is when he's on the field.
_________________
davidpalmer714 wrote:
Kenney>Everyone else on here
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5521
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Schaub will get locked up long-term this offseason as long as he doesn't completely fall on his face. The scary part is if he and the team finally breaks through and checks "never has won in the playoffs" off his list with a deep run, he's going to command an $50-$70 million deal as believe it or not, he's been a bit underpaid here (Romo is a fair comp at 6 years/$67 million, Sanchez got 5/$58, Cutler 5/$50 while crazy deals like both Manning's, Ryan/Bradford, whatever Brees gets will skew the scale up).

If D. Brown repeats last years performance, he will bank in the $35-$40 million range. Remember, he will be viewed as a ZBS guy which limits his options and market value, but I'd still be shocked if the Texans didn't lock him up especially after shedding Winston's salary in a clear concession of Myers and Brown being the pieces they were willing to pay to keep.

I can't see any scenario where Barwin gets any "Mario-esque" offers. Mario got the money he did because of the mystique around being a #1 overall pick who is 6' 6" 290 with speed and 53 career sacks and the perception that he still has the potential to become a dominant player at DE. Connor Barwin enters the season with 15 career sacks and even if he top double digits again, I doubt he'll command much more than $35-$40 million as he'll be viewed as an OLB or DE tweener and Kamerion Wimbley only commanded $35 this year with a similar track record.

Butler & Caldwell are getting 1 year tryouts and considering how hard they are already getting pushed by Newton and Brooks, I think the in-house succession plan is already in place unless they blow our socks off.

Glover Quin. He may be decent in our system, but the market value for safeties who specialize in tackling and aren't playmakers is relatively low. Personally, I'd still rather see us draft a playmaking SS and move Quin back to the nickle.

Cody, Casey, McCain are all working class replaceable parts IMO. If we don't do anything more creative with Casey this year, I'd rather just get a seek a permanent replacement at FB and draft TE high next year. Remember he'll be 29 going into 2013.

If you believe John Clayton's math, the Texans have about $25 million in cap space in 2013 to work with and 2014 should see a bump in the cap when the new TV deals kick in (but we're talking about 6-7% escalation, not the crazy numbers people were throwing around by looking at the overall value of the TV rights deal instead of the annual increases and dividing by the 50% the players get which will be offset somewhat by declining revenues in some other areas).
_________________


12 Year Texans Season Ticket Holder
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5521
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 12:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thus:
Core 20% players
1. Schaub
2. D. Brown
3. Barwin

Borderline Core / 70% working class
4. Quin (depending on price and 2012 performance)

Working Class / borderline 10% churn:
1 or 2 may secure spots as working class worth retaining while 3-5 will get churned as replaceable parts we won't overpay for.
5. Butler
6. Cody
7. Casey
8. McCain
9. Caldwell

If the Texans fail to go deep in the playoffs this year, there will be considerable pressure to go for outside free agents like 2011 and WR2and CB2 strike me as the most likely spots to be addressed via free agency and I'd be shocked if TE isn't high on our draft list with ODs age, injury history, and salary.
_________________


12 Year Texans Season Ticket Holder
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5521
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 1:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Troy Nolan may have been the other guy you were thinking about that will be a 2013 FA. Totally replaceable part IMO and that may be this year considering Quintin Demps had pushed him to the bench last year.

Speaking of Quintin Demps, he is also a 2013 FA and if he makes the team again deserves at least being in the UDFA conversation if low rent guys like Nolan and McCain are.

Tim Jamison is also a 2013 FA worthy of mentioning considering he is a JJ Watt / Antonio Smith injury away from starting.

We also probably need to include Bradie James on the list since he's a 2012 starter who is only here on a 1 year deal. Kinda strange to hand the playcalling job to a guy who could cycle off in a year instead of Cushing who is clearly here long-term. Not going to shock me to see him prove quite valuable this year and earn a final 2-3 year deal with us.

Of course, in reality the 2nd biggest FA we have this offseason is Wade Phillips who's departure would certainly impact our offseason strategy and market value of our defensive FAs. Technically he is under contract until thru the 2013 season, but remember the Cowboys still paid him the difference between his HC and DC salary last year and his health prevented him from him getting a shot this year. Wade isn't in it for the money but a 50% pay cut this season isn't "nothing" either and he clearly still wants one last crack at running a team and getting a ring. If the Texans repeat last years performance, some team with a solid offense will look to bring in Wade to shore up the defense quickly and get them to the next level (Atlanta or SD would be nice "full circle" possibilities if they flop again this year).
_________________


12 Year Texans Season Ticket Holder
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
Posts: 4380
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Matt Schaub
2. Duane Brown
3. Connor Barwin
4. James Casey (I think he's going to be a nightmare for defenses this year, and it's hard to find guys that can do that)
5. Glover Quin

2. I'd agree that Duane Brown is more important than Schaub who's struggled to stay healthy. Yates almost took us to the AFC Championship last season.. I'm sure there are other QBs that can compete for championships with the Texans defense too.

3. Texans seem to be able to replace OLBs pretty efficiently via the draft.. and its a good way to maintain a relatively inexpensive pass rush. I could see A LOT of these guys not being around.. especially if we win a championship this season
Pray
_________________

LORK88
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5521
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
2. I'd agree that Duane Brown is more important than Schaub who's struggled to stay healthy. Yates almost took us to the AFC Championship last season..


Huh? Yates contributed 11 completions in the playoff win vs the Bengals which was clearly a defensive slaughter with JJ Watt contributing as many TDs as Yates and then lost a 13-20 game to the Ravens where all he had to be was mediocre and not the god awful mess he was with a 28 QBR and 3 ints in a game where he was throwing 5 yard passes all day and exposed his spaghetti arm in the clutch. All Yates did was exceed low expectations against two defenses with terrible secondaries in Atlanta and Cinn, then stink things up vs. a 5 win Panther defense and get restricted to dumpoffs in a loss against the worst team in the NFL last year (Colts) that we destroyed 34-7 behind Schaub. Nothing about TJ Yates "almost took us to the AFC Championship last season" as if you paired him with the defenses here in 07-10 he would be little more than Curtis Painter / Dan Orlovsky while Matt Schaub has been responsible for 32 wins in 4.5 seasons and played well enough to win a dozen more. I might give TJ Yates credit for helping us win 1 game last year (Cinn 1) while not doing anything to lose a couple others (Cinn 2, Atlanta). If Duane Brown helped keep TJ Yates upright for a living, we would be a 6 win team this season at best.

The day an LT is more important than the QB he protects is the day the Dolphins (Jake Long) and Browns (Joe Thomas) make the playoffs behind Chad Henne and Colt McCoy. I grew up with Dan Dierdorf as a perennial Pro Bowler which was great except Jim Hart was the QB he was protecting. The Ravens might have more than 1 Super Bowl if Jonathan Ogden had better QBs to protect. For the record, Duane Brown is a ZBS specific LT who has never been to a Pro Bowl that doesn't belong in the same paragraph as Long or Thomas better yet Ogden or Dierdorf. He's definitely on the verge of being mentioned with the top 6-10 LTs in the league, but not ahead of our QB who is top 10 all-time QBR right now. Remind me who the LTs were for the Giants, Packers, Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts vs. their QBs the past 6 Super Bowls. I'm probably forgetting about someone, but Ogden may be the last dominant LT for a Super Bowl champ and that was a decade ago now.
_________________


12 Year Texans Season Ticket Holder


Last edited by Apollo Stallion on Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:50 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
mse326


Moderator
Joined: 19 Jan 2008
Posts: 15876
Location: mike23md on the sig
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Order of importance
1. Matt Schaub
2. Duane Brown
3. Connor Barwin
4. Glover Quin
5. Brice McCain

Must resign
Easilly Matty. You need a QB in this league and we don't have one. I don't see anything in Yates that tells me he's any better than a backup. Of course health is an issue and if he misses significant time again I may rethink this and go Brown.

Most likely not to resign
Honestly I think we keep all 5. Brown will cost a pretty penny if he repeats but we can't have 3/5 turnover and we really don't have a replacement at the ready. Quin and McCain are more valuable to us than most and I think are generally underrated around the league because they lack the flashy stats. I guess Barwin is the most likely considering we do have a "replacement" in Mercilus, but I still think he stays.
_________________

#JDI
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
treece300e


Joined: 29 Jul 2011
Posts: 404
Location: Nampa, ID
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
Order of importance
1. Matt Schaub
2. Duane Brown
3. Connor Barwin
4. Glover Quin
5. Brice McCain

Must resign
Easilly Matty. You need a QB in this league and we don't have one. I don't see anything in Yates that tells me he's any better than a backup. Of course health is an issue and if he misses significant time again I may rethink this and go Brown.

Most likely not to resign
Honestly I think we keep all 5. Brown will cost a pretty penny if he repeats but we can't have 3/5 turnover and we really don't have a replacement at the ready. Quin and McCain are more valuable to us than most and I think are generally underrated around the league because they lack the flashy stats. I guess Barwin is the most likely considering we do have a "replacement" in Mercilus, but I still think he stays.


I agree that Quin and McCain are more valuable than they get credit for, however, it also seems that rookie Safeties can usually come in and adapt pretty quickly. McCain is solid for what he does, but I also think that we have a stable of CBs, and 1-2 should be able to take over his role if necessary. I won't downplay their contribution, but I do think that they might be relatively easy to replace via depth or draft.

Jury is still out on Barwin; I don't think he'll be a one-year wonder, but he doesn't have a long track record of success. I think it'd be ideal to try and sign him early this year and hope that he continues to produce. With the agents and knowledge of the business, I doubt he'd sign anything cheap, though.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jch1911


Joined: 21 Mar 2009
Posts: 3572
Location: West Palm Beach, FL
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LMAO... I was about to expend energy in typing my reply but I think Apollo nailed it for the most part.

(1) I think I hold GQ in higher stead because although he doesn't cause a lot of TO's, he also doesn't make tons of mistakes (take a cue, KJ). GQ wraps on his tackles and doesn't get beat deep often IIRC.

(2) Our QB position

Probable Market for Schaub Next Season
Will likely need a QB: AZ
Might be looking for a QB: BUF; JAX; KC; OAK; MN

I think BUF, KC, & OAK would all be going rookie QB rather than a vet.

So the market for Schuab might not be that lucrative. But as a man who sells multi-million dollar homes once told me, it only take one (buyer). Then again, after he comes off leading the Texans to their first ever SB championship this season, teams will be lining up at his door. Wink

As a sidenote, I am doing a sim right now in another thread and one of my main targets was a franchise signal caller (drafted Aaron Murray of Georgia in the 3rd round - he is short, but seems to be tailor made for WCO). I think the Texans may also end up drafting a QB next year as a few good prospects will probably slide in next year's draft - plus it serves as a great negotiating tool.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Texansfan713


Joined: 24 Dec 2009
Posts: 29353
Location: Houston
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

1. Order of importance

1. Matt Schaub
2. Duane Brown
3. Glover Quin
4. Connor Barwin
5. Brice McCain

*The top 4 is first. I am not really worried about McCain unless our young cornerbacks (Harris, and CarMichael) are horrible and shows no sign of improving, and this is Kareem's last shot with us so if he takes a step back too then McCain would be even more of an important resigning.

2. Matt Schaub may be our most important free agent we have next season, but I am with ET when he says that we can't afford to lose Duane Brown. LT is one of the hardest positions in the NFL to play and Duane Brown has proven to be a top 10 LT in this league. We can't afford to lose him. Kubiak does a pretty good job at coaching QB's and if we lose Schaub then I am confident he can get good QB play from another guy.

3. Out of the 5 guys I have listed Connor Barwin will be the toughest for us to resign simply because if he keeps on doing what he is doing at the OLB position we probably won't be able to afford him and add to the fact that we drafted Mercilus and Mercilus can have an op to do what Brooks Reed did last season or even more, do what Aldon Smith did off the bench. We could afford to let Barwin go and just draft another pass rushing specialist to go with Reed and Mercilus.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
amazingandre


Joined: 16 Dec 2007
Posts: 13945
Location: Elkhorn, WI
PostPosted: Mon Jun 11, 2012 9:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Duane Brown is MUCH more important than Schaub, Matt would cry and break if Brown walked and we replaced him with garbage. Schaub is way too fragile to NOT lock up Brown first...........

Brown
Schaub
Barwin





everyone else
_________________
]
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
lumberjackchris


Joined: 14 Apr 2011
Posts: 4484
PostPosted: Wed Jun 13, 2012 11:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amazingandre wrote:
Duane Brown is MUCH more important than Schaub, Matt would cry and break if Brown walked and we replaced him with garbage. Schaub is way too fragile to NOT lock up Brown first...........

Brown
Schaub
Barwin





everyone else



Completely agree Ax2 and will have some more tough decisions next offseason, and i've already seen some guys say, "well if Smith has another offseason like this next year, he needs to be fired" And my response is why? The reason we have to many tough decisions is that we are hitting on our draft picks, especially the high ones and with the more hit's you have to more contracts you have to give out and there is simply not enough money. So if that means losing Barwin to keep Brown and Schaub next year so be it cause I trust the front office in their early round picks that Mercilus will be a stud and I dont know about yall but Ill do whatever it takes to keep Schaub, cause I look at the Cardinals, Redskins, and Dolphins among others who have struggled for a decade+ to find a franchise QB and we have one.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
Posts: 4380
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Quote:
2. I'd agree that Duane Brown is more important than Schaub who's struggled to stay healthy. Yates almost took us to the AFC Championship last season..


Huh? Yates contributed 11 completions in the playoff win vs the Bengals which was clearly a defensive slaughter with JJ Watt contributing as many TDs as Yates and then lost a 13-20 game to the Ravens where all he had to be was mediocre and not the god awful mess he was with a 28 QBR and 3 ints in a game where he was throwing 5 yard passes all day and exposed his spaghetti arm in the clutch. All Yates did was exceed low expectations against two defenses with terrible secondaries in Atlanta and Cinn, then stink things up vs. a 5 win Panther defense and get restricted to dumpoffs in a loss against the worst team in the NFL last year (Colts) that we destroyed 34-7 behind Schaub. Nothing about TJ Yates "almost took us to the AFC Championship last season" as if you paired him with the defenses here in 07-10 he would be little more than Curtis Painter / Dan Orlovsky while Matt Schaub has been responsible for 32 wins in 4.5 seasons and played well enough to win a dozen more. I might give TJ Yates credit for helping us win 1 game last year (Cinn 1) while not doing anything to lose a couple others (Cinn 2, Atlanta). If Duane Brown helped keep TJ Yates upright for a living, we would be a 6 win team this season at best.

The day an LT is more important than the QB he protects is the day the Dolphins (Jake Long) and Browns (Joe Thomas) make the playoffs behind Chad Henne and Colt McCoy. I grew up with Dan Dierdorf as a perennial Pro Bowler which was great except Jim Hart was the QB he was protecting. The Ravens might have more than 1 Super Bowl if Jonathan Ogden had better QBs to protect. For the record, Duane Brown is a ZBS specific LT who has never been to a Pro Bowl that doesn't belong in the same paragraph as Long or Thomas better yet Ogden or Dierdorf. He's definitely on the verge of being mentioned with the top 6-10 LTs in the league, but not ahead of our QB who is top 10 all-time QBR right now. Remind me who the LTs were for the Giants, Packers, Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts vs. their QBs the past 6 Super Bowls. I'm probably forgetting about someone, but Ogden may be the last dominant LT for a Super Bowl champ and that was a decade ago now.


I duno.. I guess I see the QB position as sort of a plug and play position in our offense. Yates did pretty well as a rookie with NO OFFSEASON.. AND hardly any practice reps.

Also, I think it's safe to say that if we're going to win a championship, it'll be with great defense and a great run game.

I thought Yates showed exceptional pocket presence, and he didn't make too many stupid mistakes. Give him another year to learn, and I think he'd be ready to start in year 3 of his career.

On the other hand, I don't think you're going to find another Duane Brown quite so easily, AND we just locked up Foster for a while. AND Brown is essential in keeping an INJURY PRONE Schaub upright.

Just my opinion, I think Brown is #1 priority.
_________________

LORK88
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail
DreDay80


Joined: 09 Jan 2012
Posts: 1983
PostPosted: Thu Jun 14, 2012 9:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In what world is a LT more important than a top 10 QB?
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Houston Texans All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next
Page 1 of 5

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group