Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

7-9 would be disappointing.
Goto page 1, 2  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> San Francisco 49ers
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
P-Willy52


Joined: 22 Dec 2008
Posts: 693
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 8:28 pm    Post subject: 7-9 would be disappointing. Reply with quote

Just browsing around and came across and article talking about statistical analysis having us at only 7 wins for the season.

Now while I don't buy much stock into the article, I figured some around the forum would enjoy the watch/read...

http://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_21114098

The video is 10 mins long, but worth watching if your into sabermetrics.

Did bring up some interesting points on the heath of our team, but I feel the FO and coaching staff has gotten the team to a point where losing players would not be the death of us. We have experience now and should be deep enough to overcome injuries(knock on wood they don't occur) that should happen through out the season.
_________________

1-0
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Psychlone


Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Posts: 3873
Location: Marin County, CA.
PostPosted: Fri Jul 20, 2012 9:03 pm    Post subject: Re: 7-9 would be disappointing. Reply with quote

P-Willy52 wrote:
Just browsing around and came across and article talking about statistical analysis having us at only 7 wins for the season.

Now while I don't buy much stock into the article, I figured some around the forum would enjoy the watch/read...

http://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_21114098

The video is 10 mins long, but worth watching if your into sabermetrics.

Did bring up some interesting points on the heath of our team, but I feel the FO and coaching staff has gotten the team to a point where losing players would not be the death of us. We have experience now and should be deep enough to overcome injuries(knock on wood they don't occur) that should happen through out the season.

"Fight against the power of regression towards the mean" But what is the mean? How is this mean achieved? In the long run, regressing towards the mean means historical records will pull towards .500. Beyond that, their just using isolated cases of teams with spikes in wins. Does that factor in other relavant factors? Ceteris Paribus is the assumption that determines their mean. Our new coaching staff alone is an independant variable (did those other teams have new coaches? new good coaches?) in this statistical model. Thats a huge relavant factor for us? If they factored in teams with spikes, and also improved their coaching staff, the sample size would be so small the numbers would be irrelevant. And turnovers... is that random or does coaching and scheming have anything to do with that?
BLAH...
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Chrissooner49er


Joined: 03 Feb 2005
Posts: 4062
Location: Tulsa, OK
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:12 pm    Post subject: Re: 7-9 would be disappointing. Reply with quote

Psychlone wrote:
P-Willy52 wrote:
Just browsing around and came across and article talking about statistical analysis having us at only 7 wins for the season.

Now while I don't buy much stock into the article, I figured some around the forum would enjoy the watch/read...

http://www.mercurynews.com/49ers/ci_21114098

The video is 10 mins long, but worth watching if your into sabermetrics.

Did bring up some interesting points on the heath of our team, but I feel the FO and coaching staff has gotten the team to a point where losing players would not be the death of us. We have experience now and should be deep enough to overcome injuries(knock on wood they don't occur) that should happen through out the season.

"Fight against the power of regression towards the mean" But what is the mean? How is this mean achieved? In the long run, regressing towards the mean means historical records will pull towards .500. Beyond that, their just using isolated cases of teams with spikes in wins. Does that factor in other relavant factors? Ceteris Paribus is the assumption that determines their mean. Our new coaching staff alone is an independant variable (did those other teams have new coaches? new good coaches?) in this statistical model. Thats a huge relavant factor for us? If they factored in teams with spikes, and also improved their coaching staff, the sample size would be so small the numbers would be irrelevant. And turnovers... is that random or does coaching and scheming have anything to do with that?
BLAH...

Eh?

As I tell my students: "there is a reason I am not a math teacher!"

I'm a geography teacher. Razz
_________________
fa·nat·ic (f-ntk)
A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause.
Draft wishes:1st-Beckham/Cooks,Fuller/Verrett;2nd-T. Murphy,Moncrief,Su'a-Filo,M. Smith;3rd-Abbrederis,Ben Gardner,J.Watkins,T. Reilly...
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SoCalNiner


Moderator
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 23105
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I believe we were predicted only have 7 wins with that formula last year, so I'm not worried.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rejuvenation


Joined: 20 Sep 2010
Posts: 1763
Location: Delaware
PostPosted: Sat Jul 21, 2012 10:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sure would love to know why everyone seems so obsessed with burying our team all of a sudden as if there isn't a snowball's chance in hell we can be a playoff team again. From a particular group of fans of an AFC team on this site to various sports articles proclaiming doom before the season has even started.

By no means do I expect us to get 13 wins again. Heck I expected 10 less than that last year at worse but getting to 9-10 wins this year isn't a stretch. That and it isn't like we have a team with a top 15 QB to fear in this division that is going to torch us. We brought back almost all of our players and coaches while making some improvements to the team's weaknesses. As long as we manage a playoff spot I'm good even if that gets done with only 9 wins this time around.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
49ersfan


Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 6613
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rejuvenation wrote:
Sure would love to know why everyone seems so obsessed with burying our team all of a sudden as if there isn't a snowball's chance in hell we can be a playoff team again. From a particular group of fans of an AFC team on this site to various sports articles proclaiming doom before the season has even started.

By no means do I expect us to get 13 wins again. Heck I expected 10 less than that last year at worse but getting to 9-10 wins this year isn't a stretch. That and it isn't like we have a team with a top 15 QB to fear in this division that is going to torch us. We brought back almost all of our players and coaches while making some improvements to the team's weaknesses. As long as we manage a playoff spot I'm good even if that gets done with only 9 wins this time around.


If your talking about the poster OneJayHawk (a chiefs fan), he has every right to his opinion. But i know he posted on another forum (same username) that Aldon Smith was a bad pick/F type grade and the 49ers had one of the worst drafts in the NFL last year. Or if you're talking about the Ravens fans (several have us regressing in NFL gen boards) well i'm pretty sure none of them predicted us to win even 10 games, let alone 13 games. Regardless, i don't think its anything personal, but i disagree with them to an extent.

And i can see regression, but not a total regression. The key is Harbaugh. I feel even more confident in Harbaugh because he has 8 years of quality college coaching experience, where his skills/traits transferred to the NFL (improved QB play, sound fundamentals all around, well prepared, good choice of assistant coaches).

Consider our playoff experience too- we beat a red-hot Saints team, than lost in OT to the NYG, a team that had won their previous 4 games with a combined score of 121-54. Flash in the pan/one hit wonder teams tend to fizzle in the playoffs against tougher competition. So i don't think he's a one-hit NFL wonder like say, a - Jauron, Todd Haley, Eric Mangini, or Jim Mora Jr. (all coaches who's teams regressed after breakout seasons, with a combined 1 playoff win between them, that against a 8-8 Rams team in 2004 by Mora Jr.)

I think a few players might regress individually. But this is a well-coached, well-prepared, fundamentally sound team that beats teams by exploiting their weaknesses. I gave my prediction- 11-5, 8 wins worst case, 13 best case. So i see regression, but 7 wins? I really doubt it, especially because we always get 4 or 5 wins in our division anyways. We'll find out who's right soon though, i can't wait for the season and games to start and let the on field play speak for itself, one way or the other.
_________________
-Not taking this off until the 49ers win #6
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
CoryH


Joined: 08 Apr 2008
Posts: 818
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 2:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ersfan wrote:
Rejuvenation wrote:
Sure would love to know why everyone seems so obsessed with burying our team all of a sudden as if there isn't a snowball's chance in hell we can be a playoff team again. From a particular group of fans of an AFC team on this site to various sports articles proclaiming doom before the season has even started.

By no means do I expect us to get 13 wins again. Heck I expected 10 less than that last year at worse but getting to 9-10 wins this year isn't a stretch. That and it isn't like we have a team with a top 15 QB to fear in this division that is going to torch us. We brought back almost all of our players and coaches while making some improvements to the team's weaknesses. As long as we manage a playoff spot I'm good even if that gets done with only 9 wins this time around.


If your talking about the poster OneJayHawk (a chiefs fan), he has every right to his opinion. But i know he posted on another forum (same username) that Aldon Smith was a bad pick/F type grade and the 49ers had one of the worst drafts in the NFL last year. Or if you're talking about the Ravens fans (several have us regressing in NFL gen boards) well i'm pretty sure none of them predicted us to win even 10 games, let alone 13 games. Regardless, i don't think its anything personal, but i disagree with them to an extent.

And i can see regression, but not a total regression. The key is Harbaugh. I feel even more confident in Harbaugh because he has 8 years of quality college coaching experience, where his skills/traits transferred to the NFL (improved QB play, sound fundamentals all around, well prepared, good choice of assistant coaches).

Consider our playoff experience too- we beat a red-hot Saints team, than lost in OT to the NYG, a team that had won their previous 4 games with a combined score of 121-54. Flash in the pan/one hit wonder teams tend to fizzle in the playoffs against tougher competition. So i don't think he's a one-hit NFL wonder like say, a - Jauron, Todd Haley, Eric Mangini, or Jim Mora Jr. (all coaches who's teams regressed after breakout seasons, with a combined 1 playoff win between them, that against a 8-8 Rams team in 2004 by Mora Jr.)

I think a few players might regress individually. But this is a well-coached, well-prepared, fundamentally sound team that beats teams by exploiting their weaknesses. I gave my prediction- 11-5, 8 wins worst case, 13 best case. So i see regression, but 7 wins? I really doubt it, especially because we always get 4 or 5 wins in our division anyways. We'll find out who's right soon though, i can't wait for the season and games to start and let the on field play speak for itself, one way or the other.


I like this post.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
steadypimpin


Joined: 01 Jan 2009
Posts: 9560
Location: Rockville, Maryland
PostPosted: Sun Jul 22, 2012 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This team is stacked. The only way I see us going 7-9 is if Alex Smith doesn't improve on his last years success. I think that even though he did well last year, he is still the biggest factor in our success. He is the biggest question mark out of all our starters.
_________________

Thanks to IDOG_det on the sig!
2011 & 2012 NFC West Champs!!!
Xbox: Steadypimpin49
"Keep choppin' wood"
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SFaithful97


Joined: 08 Mar 2007
Posts: 2975
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 2:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Statistical analysis does not determine the outcome of games. We have a good/great coaching staff that does a great job of putting our playmakers in position to perform at their best. If last year is anything to go off of, we will be the better prepared team a vast majority of the time, and that is why we did so well last year.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SoCalNiner


Moderator
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 23105
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steadypimpin wrote:
This team is stacked. The only way I see us going 7-9 is if Alex Smith doesn't improve on his last years success. I think that even though he did well last year, he is still the biggest factor in our success. He is the biggest question mark out of all our starters.


I'd say the offensive line is. If Alex can just replicate his 2011 year, then we're good. However, if Boone fails at his new guard position, then we could be screwed.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
49ersfan


Joined: 21 Apr 2007
Posts: 6613
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SoCalNiner wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
This team is stacked. The only way I see us going 7-9 is if Alex Smith doesn't improve on his last years success. I think that even though he did well last year, he is still the biggest factor in our success. He is the biggest question mark out of all our starters.


I'd say the offensive line is. If Alex can just replicate his 2011 year, then we're good. However, if Boone fails at his new guard position, then we could be screwed.


We're going to need him to improve. Can't count on a +28 TO ratio again, that means the margin of error to win games shrinks. I'm not necessarily worried with bulk passing yards as much as i am with 3rd down conversions and redzone conversions.
_________________
-Not taking this off until the 49ers win #6
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
SoCalNiner


Moderator
Joined: 13 Nov 2007
Posts: 23105
PostPosted: Mon Jul 23, 2012 3:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

49ersfan wrote:
SoCalNiner wrote:
steadypimpin wrote:
This team is stacked. The only way I see us going 7-9 is if Alex Smith doesn't improve on his last years success. I think that even though he did well last year, he is still the biggest factor in our success. He is the biggest question mark out of all our starters.


I'd say the offensive line is. If Alex can just replicate his 2011 year, then we're good. However, if Boone fails at his new guard position, then we could be screwed.


We're going to need him to improve. Can't count on a +28 TO ratio again, that means the margin of error to win games shrinks. I'm not necessarily worried with bulk passing yards as much as i am with 3rd down conversions and redzone conversions.


Considering we were horrible on 3rd down and redzone conversions last year, I'd say if we can even improve it by a little it would be a giant step for us.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Psychlone


Joined: 15 Mar 2008
Posts: 3873
Location: Marin County, CA.
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 12:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Another article (Grantland) for the masochists. Wink
The Niners Won't Strike Gold in 2012

Quote:
But even if Harbaugh's every bit as good as I think he is, it wouldn't be a surprise to see his team slip in 2012. I put Harbaugh in a class with two other head coaches tactically, and they each had a similar fall. Bill Belichick followed a 5-11 debut season with the Patriots by leading New England to a stunning 11-win season, one that ended with a Super Bowl win. The year after, Belichick's team went through a disappointing 9-7 campaign that saw them miss the playoffs. Sean Payton's Saints, meanwhile, pulled off their stunning 10-6 NFC South win during Payton's debut season with the team, one that ended in the NFC championship game. After that season, they retreated to 7-9 and spent two years in the wild before winning the Super Bowl in 2009. It's not like Payton was a terrible coach for those two years, either. This year, coaches will adjust a bit to Harbaugh. His bag of tricks — the sneaky offsides move, the unexpected onside kicks — won't work quite as well. The 2012 49ers can simultaneously have a great coach and still be disappointing.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8237657/san-francisco-repeat-last-season-greatness
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
oldman9er


Joined: 24 Oct 2006
Posts: 40151
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think a one week BAN for Mr. Psychlone is appropriate right about now...



_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
big9erfan


Joined: 26 Feb 2007
Posts: 14426
PostPosted: Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Psychlone wrote:
Another article (Grantland) for the masochists. Wink
The Niners Won't Strike Gold in 2012

Quote:
But even if Harbaugh's every bit as good as I think he is, it wouldn't be a surprise to see his team slip in 2012. I put Harbaugh in a class with two other head coaches tactically, and they each had a similar fall. Bill Belichick followed a 5-11 debut season with the Patriots by leading New England to a stunning 11-win season, one that ended with a Super Bowl win. The year after, Belichick's team went through a disappointing 9-7 campaign that saw them miss the playoffs. Sean Payton's Saints, meanwhile, pulled off their stunning 10-6 NFC South win during Payton's debut season with the team, one that ended in the NFC championship game. After that season, they retreated to 7-9 and spent two years in the wild before winning the Super Bowl in 2009. It's not like Payton was a terrible coach for those two years, either. This year, coaches will adjust a bit to Harbaugh. His bag of tricks — the sneaky offsides move, the unexpected onside kicks — won't work quite as well. The 2012 49ers can simultaneously have a great coach and still be disappointing.

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8237657/san-francisco-repeat-last-season-greatness


Every case is different. Yes, they will know Harbaugh's tricks a little bit more. But we have our entire defense back, and that is rare. And we've added tons of weapons on offense and have an entire off season to flesh out the playbook that was stunted by lack of a preseason last year. 13-3 will be hard to duplicate. But there's no reason I can see not to expect a very good year. Key injuries are always a wild card of course.
_________________


Last edited by big9erfan on Mon Aug 06, 2012 10:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> San Francisco 49ers All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2  Next
Page 1 of 2

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group