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JaguarCrazy2832


Joined: 28 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Like I've said before, if his career is limited to 6 years, but he plays like Von Miller or one of the best during that time, I'm fine with taking him. I'm usually really cautious with these kind of things, but with him I don't care about it. I think he can be a special player.


6 years doesnt seem like alot for a high pick though, and asking him to be a DPOY candidate is alot too(although you hope that where youd draft him)
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Like I've said before, if his career is limited to 6 years, but he plays like Von Miller or one of the best during that time, I'm fine with taking him. I'm usually really cautious with these kind of things, but with him I don't care about it. I think he can be a special player.


6 years doesnt seem like alot for a high pick though, and asking him to be a DPOY candidate is alot too(although you hope that where youd draft him)


There are people in the HOF with only 6 years of high production and 6 years would be about the size of his rookie contract. Either way, the number is essentially arbitrary. I only used it because that's how long Marcus McNeill lasted. Like I said before though, Chris Samuels lasted nearly a decade.
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Mr. V


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 26, 2012 5:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr. V wrote:
I don't think looking beyond 4 or 5 years when drafting a player makes sense.

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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mr. V wrote:
I don't think looking beyond 4 or 5 years when drafting a player makes sense.


I don't think it makes much sense to take a pure short-term view with the draft though.

It depends heavily on the position and particular player in question, but often enough, it takes players 3-4 years to really 'hit their stride' in the NFL. Some guys will step right in as impact players, yes...but certainly not all. Looking at the short term is what you do with FA signings, not draft picks imo.


This isn't particularly relevant to Jarvis Jones though, as he is a special case. We'd obviously be hoping for an immediate impact starter that high in the draft, but we'd also be talking about a potentially uncertain future. There's no guarantees with any player...anybody can have their career cut short unexpectedly and Jones could well have a decade long career without much issue...but Jarvis Jones' condition does add a more concrete level of uncertainty to how long he is likely to last, above and beyond what you'd worry about with a typical 'healthy' player.

It very well could end up being worth it, but there is an added element of risk to it. In some ways, it's similar to a player with serious 'character issues'. It doesn't automatically cross them off some GMs' big boards, but it does add an extra measure of uncertainty to the players' future and makes them a 'riskier' pick, and a risk to have an abruptly shortened career if they can't get their act together.

But like i said...he's a potentially special enough player that i'd be talking with a lot of doctors, and i'd want to have my own 'experts' looking over his medical records to decide just how much of a risk it's likely to be.
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Mr. V


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tugboat wrote:
Mr. V wrote:
I don't think looking beyond 4 or 5 years when drafting a player makes sense.


I don't think it makes much sense to take a pure short-term view with the draft though.

It depends heavily on the position and particular player in question, but often enough, it takes players 3-4 years to really 'hit their stride' in the NFL. Some guys will step right in as impact players, yes...but certainly not all. Looking at the short term is what you do with FA signings, not draft picks imo.


This isn't particularly relevant to Jarvis Jones though, as he is a special case. We'd obviously be hoping for an immediate impact starter that high in the draft, but we'd also be talking about a potentially uncertain future. There's no guarantees with any player...anybody can have their career cut short unexpectedly and Jones could well have a decade long career without much issue...but Jarvis Jones' condition does add a more concrete level of uncertainty to how long he is likely to last, above and beyond what you'd worry about with a typical 'healthy' player.

It very well could end up being worth it, but there is an added element of risk to it. In some ways, it's similar to a player with serious 'character issues'. It doesn't automatically cross them off some GMs' big boards, but it does add an extra measure of uncertainty to the players' future and makes them a 'riskier' pick, and a risk to have an abruptly shortened career if they can't get their act together.

But like i said...he's a potentially special enough player that i'd be talking with a lot of doctors, and i'd want to have my own 'experts' looking over his medical records to decide just how much of a risk it's likely to be.


I'm not saying you look only short term, although some GMs might because they're trying to keep their job. If you think the risk is worth taking and Jones can provide you 5 good years, the max amount of years you are guaranteed to have him in teal, then you pick him. I don't think the risk is worth it because there are other players with similar talent and caliber imo. No point in looking past the first contract though because there is no guarantee that the player is still playing for you.
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sadjag


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
sadjag wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Like I've said before, if his career is limited to 6 years, but he plays like Von Miller or one of the best during that time, I'm fine with taking him. I'm usually really cautious with these kind of things, but with him I don't care about it. I think he can be a special player.
I would be fine with 6 years. But from what I understand one hit / one awkward landing and his career is OVER. With this teams history I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.


That could be said with any player though, regardless of their medical conditions.

All the guys that become injury prone here had no injury issues before. MAYBE THE OPPOSITE WOULD BE TRUE TOO.
The possibility of this happening to jarvis though is much greater because of his condition. IMO that risk drops his value enough that I wouldn't take him top 5.

I could be wrong though from what I understand he is one awkward hit / landing away from never playing again or even walking. all of the above statements are based off that assumption. Noone is denying that he is not talented or good enough too be picked top 5. Trust me I'm a gator fan Jarvis DOMINATED us the last two years. kids a monster
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sadjag wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
sadjag wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Like I've said before, if his career is limited to 6 years, but he plays like Von Miller or one of the best during that time, I'm fine with taking him. I'm usually really cautious with these kind of things, but with him I don't care about it. I think he can be a special player.
I would be fine with 6 years. But from what I understand one hit / one awkward landing and his career is OVER. With this teams history I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.


That could be said with any player though, regardless of their medical conditions.

All the guys that become injury prone here had no injury issues before. MAYBE THE OPPOSITE WOULD BE TRUE TOO.
The possibility of this happening to jarvis though is much greater because of his condition. IMO that risk drops his value enough that I wouldn't take him top 5.

I could be wrong though from what I understand he is one awkward hit / landing away from never playing again or even walking. all of the above statements are based off that assumption. Noone is denying that he is not talented or good enough too be picked top 5. Trust me I'm a gator fan Jarvis DOMINATED us the last two years. kids a monster


Like I said before though, that could happen to anyone. Chris Samuels played 9 years with it. David Pollack didn't have it and he broke a vertebrae and had to retire after a year.
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sadjag


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
sadjag wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
sadjag wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Like I've said before, if his career is limited to 6 years, but he plays like Von Miller or one of the best during that time, I'm fine with taking him. I'm usually really cautious with these kind of things, but with him I don't care about it. I think he can be a special player.
I would be fine with 6 years. But from what I understand one hit / one awkward landing and his career is OVER. With this teams history I wouldn't touch him with a ten foot pole.


That could be said with any player though, regardless of their medical conditions.

All the guys that become injury prone here had no injury issues before. MAYBE THE OPPOSITE WOULD BE TRUE TOO.
The possibility of this happening to jarvis though is much greater because of his condition. IMO that risk drops his value enough that I wouldn't take him top 5.

I could be wrong though from what I understand he is one awkward hit / landing away from never playing again or even walking. all of the above statements are based off that assumption. Noone is denying that he is not talented or good enough too be picked top 5. Trust me I'm a gator fan Jarvis DOMINATED us the last two years. kids a monster


Like I said before though, that could happen to anyone. Chris Samuels played 9 years with it. David Pollack didn't have it and he broke a vertebrae and had to retire after a year.
And then I said, The possibility of this happening to jarvis though is much greater because of his condition. IMO that risk drops his value enough that I wouldn't take him top 5.

That higher possibility drops his value in my eyes. If there's a .05% chance on every play that any player could have a career ending injury but with Jarvis it's a 5% chance that has too be taken into his draft value.

At the same time I am no expert on Spinal Stenosis and I did not know other players have had long careers with it. But I wouldn't compare them apple to apples Jarvis' condition might be alot worse than Chris Samuels or it could be alot better. I'm sure alot of this will be addressed come draft time.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 27, 2012 11:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Unless he has the anti-christ protruding from his spine, I would still take Jarvis Jones pretty high.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

the only way to make that pick really worth it though if he plays 6 years is for him to go freakin nuts though, seems risky
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
the only way to make that pick really worth it though if he plays 6 years is for him to go freakin nuts though, seems risky


Isn't that the case with most first round selections?
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
the only way to make that pick really worth it though if he plays 6 years is for him to go freakin nuts though, seems risky


Isn't that the case with most first round selections?


i guess, but its weird bc we are talking about someone that already has a concern with his neck
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like i've said...guarantee me 5 or 6 years of ELITE play from the guy and it's a no brainer, obviously.

But i think it's overly presumptuous to assume that he's even going to have 5 or 6 full seasons in the league. Much less at a ProBowl calibre.


It's entirely possible that he could...but as far as i know, it's 50/50 at best. The guys with access to his medical history and current health status will be able to narrow those odds one way or the other potentially...but it's still a VERY significant risk added on top of the risk associated with any draft pick.

And then you add in that the guy is really a 3-4 rush LB...Sure Von Miller has been a phenom in Denver, but that doesn't guarantee that Jarvis Jones will be able to make a similar transition to a very different role.

In part, beyond the risk associated with any pick, you have to add the serious health concerns, and THEN you still have to add the potential scheme fit concerns. Which to me, means you have to consider what happens with the coaching staff after this season. It Mel Tucker is here, i just don't see him as a flexible enough DC to make use of Jones as a Von Miller type. It's just layers upon layers of risk.

The guy is just such a great prospect on the field though. It's hard to say no. But i'm really starting to think we're better off going a different direction.
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Mr. V


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is no guarantee though.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arizona Player of the Game: RB Ka'Deem Carey
Nevada Player of the Game: DB Duke Williams
Utah State Player of the Game: CB Will Davis
Toledo Player of the Game: WR (also RB/Ret) Bernard Reedy

No one really surprising. Will Davis did a good job keeping Alfonzo Russell quiet.

Carey & Davis were both VERY impressive today.

Arizona WR Austin Hill continues to show that he will be an interesting prospect in the 2014 or 2015 draft.
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