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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 3:57 pm    Post subject: VR's End of Regular Season Mock Reply with quote

TOP NEEDS FOR 2013

Primary Needs

1. WR - Immediate starter
2. 1 Tech. DT – Immediate starter
3. OLB/MLB – Immediate starter; position depends on who stays between Erin Henderson and Jasper Brinkley
4. 3 technique DT – Immediate starter; I don’t anticipate Kevin Williams returning
5. OG – Potential starter
6. CB – Developmental starter

Secondary Needs

7. QB – Primary backup
8. OLB/MLB – Developmental depth/special teams; see note above
9. S – Developmental depth/special teams
10. TE – Depth
12. RB – Third down back/return specialist
13. DE – Developmental depth


OFFSEASON MOVEMENT


Players Released/Not Resigned

WR Jerome Simpson – UFA
WR Devin Aromashodu – UFA
WR Stephen Burton - Released
TE John Carlson – Released
OT Troy Kropog – Relased; RFA
G/C Joe Berger – UFA
DT Kevin Williams – Released
LB Erin Henderson – UFA
LB Larry Dean - Released
CB Marcus Sherels – ERFA; Released
S Andrew Sendejo – RFA; Released

Summary

Carlson isn’t released for salary reasons, he is simply released because he isn’t any good and has shown to be injury prone. Carlson has been taking reps away from Rhett Ellison, who I feel is a better player both as a blocker and receiver.

Henderson opts to sign a long-term contract with another team as the 4-3 OLB free agent class is real thin. Henderson isn’t someone I am interested in resigning to a multi-year contract, but surely, someone will have an interest. I actually don’t think Henderson would be a bad player in a more downhill style of defense, he just doesn’t have the range to play in this defense.

Williams’s play has really fallen off and it showed with the lack of pass rush in the middle of the defense and inconsistency in the run game. Anything more than $4,000,000 per season is too much for Williams at this point in his career. Williams has had a great career in Minnesota, but it is time to get younger and move on.

The remaining players not retained simply add no value to the roster going forward.


Free Agents Resigned

FB Jerome Felton – 4 years; $7,000,000
OT Phil Loadholt – 5 years; $24,000,000
OG Geoff Schwartz – 1 year; $950,000
LB Jasper Brinkley – 1 year; $1,500,000
LB Marvin Mitchell – 1 year; $850,000
CB A.J. Jefferson – 1 year; $1,260,000; RFA; Right of first refusal tender
S Jamarca Sanford – 2 years; $3,000,000

Salary Spent in 2013 = Approximately $12,000,000

Summary

Felton is deserving of a new long-term contract, he was brilliant as a lead blocker and needs to remain in the backfield while Peterson is in the peak of his career.

Loadholt had a very good season last year and should be a valuable part of the offensive line going forward. Quality Tackles rarely test the market, so I anticipate the Vikings working hard at getting this deal done before the start of free agency.

Schwartz is a solid reserve and at times outperformed Brandon Fusco at RG. Schwartz will get another offseason to try and unseat Fusco’s starting spot at RG.

Brinkley isn’t a terrible two down MLB option, and since he will be cheaper than Henderson, I would prefer to keep Brinkley. I doubt that Brinkley is the ideal long-term MLB for this team, so a cheap one-year contract should be sufficient.

Mitchell is a solid reserve who can play either OLB spot and MLB. Mitchell started two games in relief of Henderson and played just as well as Henderson. Mitchell will be given an opportunity to compete for the starting job at WLB.

Jefferson is a RFA who really played terribly to close the season. Jefferson needs to be relegated to inside CB only (essentially the dime CB) where he will be better able to keep plays in front of him. Jefferson does a good job sticking to his receiver but seems to struggle playing the ball.

Sanford is a team leader and respected veteran, and deserves a spot on the team as a top reserve and special teams ace. Sanford has shown glimpses of being a solid starter, but I don’t think it is his ideal spot. He might be good enough for 2013 but Safety is a spot that eventually needs an upgrade. For now, the platoon of Sanford and Mistral Raymond at SS will probably continue given that this team has too many other needs.


Contract Extensions

DE Jared Allen – 4 years; $40,000,000; Reduces 2013 cap hit by approximately $5,000,000

DE Everson Griffen – 4 years; $15,000,000; Increases 2013 cap hit by approximately $4,000,000

CB Antoine Winfield – 3 years; $15,000,000; Reduces 2013 cap hit by approximately $2,000,000

Salary Gained in 2013 = Approximately $3,000,000


Free Agents Acquired

WR Greg Jennings – 4 years; $38,000,000
DT Sammie Hill – 3 years; $9,000,000
QB Tarvaris Jackson – 1 year; $1,500,000
LB Jonathan Casillas – 1 year; $850,000

Salary Spent in 2013 = Approximately $15,000,000

The Vikings must add a top free agent WR and someone who can come in and make an immediate impact. The decision will really be between Jennings and Dwayne Bowe and my preference is for Jennings at this point. Jennings is from Michigan and played his entire career in Wisconsin, I anticipate a desire to stay within upper Midwest region leaving the Bears, Lions and Vikings as potential suitors. The Bears have other issues and the Lions don’t have the salary space to entertain an offer. Its possible that the Packers could use the franchise tag, but I have a hard time believing it given the salary implications, Jennings’s age and the depth the Packers currently have at WR. Jennings really does everything well and can give the Vikings a true #1 WR threat. Jennings is drawn to the opportunity of playing with a RB like Peterson, in which Jennings has already shown great admiration towards. Jennings injury history and age is concerning, so I expect a 4 year deal at around $9,000,000 per season to be adequate.

Hill is a good run defender and space eater but has been buried due to the talent the Lions have DT. For a 6-4 330 pound DT, Hill actually has a decent bit of athleticism and quickness. Hill would be a fantastic fit at the 1 technique DT spot and should replace Letroy Guion as the starter. Hill is still only 26 years old and I don’t anticipate there being a huge market for his services. Further, the Lions will be unable to make an offer like this given the limited salary space available for them in 2013.

Jackson is a familiar face who is likely to get released by the Bills with a new regime change. Jackson seemed to have issue with the Vikings when Brad Childress was running the franchise. Realizing that his opportunity as a starter has passed in the NFL and the respect Leslie Frazier is receiving around the league, Jackson decides to return to the Vikings where he is a clear upgrade over Joe Webb as the primary backup QB. Jackson won’t really compete with Christian Ponder as the starter, but should provide more veteran experience to at least push Ponder a little bit more than Webb was ever able too. While there are more attractive options like Matt Moore or Alex Smith, I feel that those two will get too expensive and sign with teams that can provide a more likely starting opportunity.

Casillas is just a camp body and likely reserve but from a physical standpoint, he is a fantastic fit for the cover 2 defense. Casillas is extremely athletic and slightly undersized and should be able to contribute on special teams and maybe push for a spot at WLB. Casillas has been out of place in the downhill defense that the Saints have typically employed since Casillas was drafted.


Pre-draft Trades

The Vikings trade WR Percy Harvin to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for a second round pick and a fourth round pick.

The Buccaneers could use a dynamic weapon at the slot WR position in there offense. With Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams receiving most of the attention on the outside, Harvin should thrive in the slot and as a dynamic weapon. I think Harvin is a good personality fit with the Buccaneers given that Greg Schiano is a tough as nails, no non-sence type head coach. Further, Harvin gets to return home to Florida, which could be an underrated issue in all of this. Perhaps Harvin just doesn’t like spending his time in Minnesota being an East Coaster all of his life.

I understand both sides of the argument for trading Harvin. However, the Vikings have two options in this situation: 1) trade him immediately for draft picks in 2013; or 2) work on a long-term contract. There is no alternative. This situation is very volatile with Harvin and acting immediately will position the Vikings to get the most value they can. If things really sour, it will become much more difficult to trade Harvin and more teams could become turned off. I put Harvin’s value as an early second round pick given his versatility and cheap rookie contract. Given the emergence of Jarius Wright in the slot, Harvin is expendable and trading him will give the Vikings the ability to address more glaring needs on the roster. If I am the Vikings, I would be very hesitant to offer Harvin DeSean Jackson type money given that he seems very discontent with his situation in Minnesota. Whether that be financial, role within the offense, or an issue with coaching, its simply too risky to break the bank for Harvin and hope that money resolves the issue.

I think Harvin’s role in the offense is often overrated. He is mainly a bubble screen receiver. In fact, roughly half of his receptions were behind the line of scrimmage. The Vikings have a hard enough time trying to get players away form the line of scrimmage, Harvin’s role as a bubble screen WR puts more pressure on Peterson to face more stacked boxes. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Peterson’s production greatly took off as soon as Harvin left the starting line up. I think the attention Harvin drew at the line of scrimmage was a huge factor and limited Peterson’s ability to break off long runs.

Wright showed more versatility in this offense than Harvin did as a downfield route runner and an underneath route runner, and seems to naturally have a better understanding of route trees. I am confident that Wright can be a more ideal slot WR for this offense. Wright also seems like he is a better character fit in the sense that Harvin is more demanding with the football, forcing Musgrave and Ponder to zone in on keeping Harvin happy by forcing him the ball. That again, restricts the offense entirely.


NFL Draft

Draft-day trades

The Vikings surrender a 7th round pick as part of the A.J. Jefferson trade.

The Vikings trade a first round pick (23) for a late first round pick (30) and a late third round pick.

The Vikings trade a third round pick (original) and a fourth round pick (via Detroit) for an early third round pick.

The Vikings trade QB Joe Webb to the Browns or Eagles (wherever Chip Kelly chooses) for an undisclosed draft pick in 2014.

1 (30) – Terrance Williams – WR – Baylor – via trade
2 – Kawann Short – DT – Purdue – via Tampa Bay
2 – Khaseem Greene – LB – Rutgers
3 – Markus Wheaton – WR – Oregon State – via trade
3 – Alvin Bailey – OG – Arkansas – via trade
4 – Will Davis – CB – Utah State – via Tampa Bay
4 – Hugh Thornton – T/G – Illinois
5 – Dennis Johnson – RB – Arkansas
6 – Zeke Motta – S – Notre Dame – via Tennessee

UDFA – Ryan Griffin – TE – Connecticut


FINAL ROSTER

QB (3) – Christian Ponder | Tarvaris Jackson | McCleod Bethel-Thompson
RB (3) – Adrian Peterosn | Toby Gerhart | Dennis Johnson
FB (1) – Jerome Felton
WR (5) – Greg Jennings | Terrance Williams | Jarius Wright | Michael Jenkins | Markus Wheaton | Greg Childs (PUP)
TE (3) – Kyle Rudolph | Rhett Ellison | Ryan Griffin
OT (4) – Matt Kalil | Phil Loadholt | Hugh Thornton | DeMarcus Love
OG (3) – Charlie Johnson | Alvin Bailey | Geoff Schwartz
C (2) - John Sullivan | Brandon Fusco

DE (4) – Jared Allen | Everson Griffen | Brian Robison | D’Aundre Reed
DT (5) – Kawann Short | Sammie Hill | Letroy Guion | Fred Evans | Christian Ballard
OLB (4) – Chad Greenway | Khaseem Greene | Marvin Mitchell | Jonathan Casillas
MLB (3) – Jasper Brinkley | Tyrone McKenzie | Audie Cole
CB (5) – Chris Cook | Josh Robinson | Antoine Winfield | A.J. Jefferson | Will Davis
S (5) – Harrison Smith | Mistral Raymond | Jamarca Sanford | Robert Blanton | Zeke Motta

ST (3) – Blair Walsh | Chris Kluwe | Cullen Loeffler


Starters/Primary Contributors

QB – Christian Ponder
RB – Adrian Peterson
FB – Jerome Felton
WR – Greg Jennings
WR – Terrance Williams
WR – Jarius Wright
TE – Kyle Rudolph
LT – Matt Kalil
LG – Charlie Johnson
C – John Sullivan
RG – Alvin Bailey
RT – Phil Loadholt

LE – Everson Griffen
DT – Sammie Hill
DT – Kawann Short
RE – Jared Allen
DL – Everson Griffen
WLB – Khaseem Greene (nickel MLB)
MLB – Jasper Brinkley
SLB – Chad Greenway (nickel OLB)
LCB – Josh Robinson
FS – Harrison Smith
SS – Mistral Raymond
RCB – Chris Cook
NCB – Antoine Winfield
DCB – A.J. Jefferson

K – Blair Walsh
P – Chris Kluwe
KR – Dennis Johnson
PR – Dennis Johnson | Jarius Wright



Needs filled:

1. WR - Immediate starter (Jennings/Williams)
2. 1 Tech. DT – Immediate starter (Hill)
3. OLB/MLB – Immediate starter; (Greene)
4. 3 technique DT – Immediate starter; (Short)
5. OG – Potential starter; (Bailey)
6. CB – Developmental starter; (Davis)
7. QB – Primary backup (Jackson)
8. OLB/MLB – potential starter; (Not filled; give Brinkley one more season)
9. S – Developmental depth/special teams; (Motta)
10. TE – Depth; (Griffin)
12. RB – Third down back/return specialist; (Johnson)
13. DE – Developmental depth; (Not filled, may need to find a replacement for Brian Robison in 2014)



Discuss!


Last edited by vikingsrule on Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:04 pm; edited 2 times in total
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 3:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just a couple quick things. Kevin Williams is not a UFA and cutting John Carlson isn't cost effective. We lose cap space and still have to fill a position. Give him another year to come into camp healthy and if he still doesn't pan out he's much easier to cut after next year.

Just put Ellison ahead of him on the depth chart and deactivate him if he doesn't perform.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Just a couple quick things. Kevin Williams is not a UFA and cutting John Carlson isn't cost effective. We lose cap space and still have to fill a position. Give him another year to come into camp healthy and if he still doesn't pan out he's much easier to cut after next year.


If you read my write up on Carlson, i mentioned that it was a performance based move not a salary one. Id rather make way for younger players than hope Carlson can stay healhy.

And I should switch Williams to being released in that case, which would be ideal, as i think his struggles were clear by seasons end.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did read the write up and still don't agree with him being released.
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[UMN]


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

no way TJack comes back to MN. too much bad blood, and he will want to go somewhere where he can at least try to compete for a starting job.

I assume Robison is gone after next year with signing Everson to a 4 year deal?
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
Just put Ellison ahead of him on the depth chart and deactivate him if he doesn't perform.


Id rather save bottom level roster spots for young players to groom. If Ellison replaces Carlson as the #2 TE as he should, id rather have that 3rd TE be a younger player with upside.
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't like the trade back. With the extra second they should be looking to move up for a LB or a DB. The WRs in this class are going to fall and be available where their 2nd is. I would love to see them add as many impact players as possible. I think a rookie DB or LB is going to have a bigger impact than a rookie WR, especially after signing Jennings.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[UMN] wrote:
no way TJack comes back to MN. too much bad blood, and he will want to go somewhere where he can at least try to compete for a starting job.

I assume Robison is gone after next year with signing Everson to a 4 year deal?


Jackson had bad blood with Childress, it might be different with Frazier, especially if many teams arent in pursuit. I highly doubt any team would give Jackson a serious opportunity at a starting job considering there are a few better starting options out there (Flynn, Cassel, Smith and Moore.)
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this providence


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trading Harvin at a loss only to come back with spending the bulk of your FA money on a WR and draft another with your first selection at the draft, in addition to using yet another valuable 3rd round pick on one doesn't seem like a step in the right direction. There's much more viable positions that need addressing, especially given what this team wants to accomplish on offense.

Not too sure what's with the Short interest around here either but oh well.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JDBrocks wrote:
I don't like the trade back. With the extra second they should be looking to move up for a LB or a DB. The WRs in this class are going to fall and be available where their 2nd is. I would love to see them add as many impact players as possible. I think a rookie DB or LB is going to have a bigger impact than a rookie WR, especially after signing Jennings.


See i think differently. I think the value in this draft is between picks 20-60. Id rather get as many picks in that area than move up.

There is only one 4-3 LB worht moving up for in T'eo. He will be gone by pick 10.

As for the WRs, there is very little difference bewteen the top 5. Whoever goes first and whoever goes sixth is very minimal in terms of talent and potential. This years WR class is very poor at the top. Its better to stay at pick 23 or trade down. I think 5 WRs go in round 1 and Hunter, Patterson and Allen look like potential top 20 picks to me.

DB could be an option, but I dont think Safety is a serious issue and any CB drafted will likely be behind Cook, Robinson and Winfield. Id rather use a 3rd or 4th rd pick on a CB for depth purposes. A first round CB probably wont see the field much barring injuries and I dont think the Vikes are going to give up on Robinson just yet.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

this providence wrote:
Trading Harvin at a loss only to come back with spending the bulk of your FA money on a WR and draft another with your first selection at the draft, in addition to using yet another valuable 3rd round pick on one doesn't seem like a step in the right direction. There's much more viable positions that need addressing, especially given what this team wants to accomplish on offense.

Not too sure what's with the Short interest around here either but oh well.


I dont think it should matter if Harvin was a first round pick and the Vikes get a 2nd rd pick.

Jennings plays a different position than Harvin, therefore you cant compare the two. Jennings is a clear upgrade over the Vikings outside WRs.

Williams is potentially an upgrade over the Vikings current #2 WR and can replace Jennigns as the #1.

Wright will be a good player in the slot.

Trading Harvin saves the team money, and gives the team an extra early rd 2 pick to add to the defense.


Last edited by vikingsrule on Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
JDBrocks wrote:
I don't like the trade back. With the extra second they should be looking to move up for a LB or a DB. The WRs in this class are going to fall and be available where their 2nd is. I would love to see them add as many impact players as possible. I think a rookie DB or LB is going to have a bigger impact than a rookie WR, especially after signing Jennings.


See i think differently. I think the value in this draft is between picks 20-60. Id rather get as many picks in that area than move up.

There is only one 4-3 LB worht moving up for in T'eo. He will be gone by pick 10.

As for the WRs, there is very little difference bewteen the top 5. Whoever goes first and whoever goes sixth is very minimal in terms of talent and potential. This years WR class is very poor at the top. Its better to stay at pick 23 or trade down. I think 5 WRs go in round 1 and Hunter, Patterson and Allen look like potential top 20 picks to me.

DB could be an option, but I dont think Safety is a serious issue and any CB drafted will likely be behind Cook, Robinson and Winfield. Id rather use a 3rd or 4th rd pick on a CB for depth purposes.


There is some strong DB talent in this draft too. We saw how Smith changed the defense this year as a rookie. Adding another impact defender seems to make more sense than drafting a player at a position known for taking time to develop and busting with a higher frequency than other positions.

Milliner, Banks, and Rhodes come to mind as guys that could surpass Robinson, and Winfield isn't going to be around forever.
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this providence


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

5 WRs in the first? Shocked

The only one I'd put a first round grade on would be Patterson. The rest have no business being selected there, IMO.
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vikingsrule


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

this providence wrote:
5 WRs in the first? Shocked

The only one I'd put a first round grade on would be Patterson. The rest have no business being selected there, IMO.


The combine will change that as it always does. Patterson and Hunter should perform exceptionally and there are a lot of WR needy teams.
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Freakout


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 06, 2013 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JDBrocks wrote:
vikingsrule wrote:
JDBrocks wrote:
I don't like the trade back. With the extra second they should be looking to move up for a LB or a DB. The WRs in this class are going to fall and be available where their 2nd is. I would love to see them add as many impact players as possible. I think a rookie DB or LB is going to have a bigger impact than a rookie WR, especially after signing Jennings.


See i think differently. I think the value in this draft is between picks 20-60. Id rather get as many picks in that area than move up.

There is only one 4-3 LB worht moving up for in T'eo. He will be gone by pick 10.

As for the WRs, there is very little difference bewteen the top 5. Whoever goes first and whoever goes sixth is very minimal in terms of talent and potential. This years WR class is very poor at the top. Its better to stay at pick 23 or trade down. I think 5 WRs go in round 1 and Hunter, Patterson and Allen look like potential top 20 picks to me.

DB could be an option, but I dont think Safety is a serious issue and any CB drafted will likely be behind Cook, Robinson and Winfield. Id rather use a 3rd or 4th rd pick on a CB for depth purposes.


There is some strong DB talent in this draft too. We saw how Smith changed the defense this year as a rookie. Adding another impact defender seems to make more sense than drafting a player at a position known for taking time to develop and busting with a higher frequency than other positions.

Milliner, Banks, and Rhodes come to mind.


I see both sides to this but I do not see them giving up on Robinson that fast. Which they would be doing if you take another CB that high and demote Robinson to being the dime guy.
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