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What NHL Playoff Matchups are most likely upsets?
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BirdsFan06050


Joined: 02 Jan 2007
Posts: 19676
PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbtb135 wrote:
The only thing I'd buy is that he's moving from great coaching/system in Phoenix that has Mike Smith looking better than Mike Smith has ever looked/is supposed to be. Which is to say he benefited from what was around him, then went to Philly and lost Pronger. The rest are just excuses.

You're vastly overrating how bad Fleury has been down the stretch, and vastly underrating how bad Bryz was to start the year. You almost don't even mention Bryz's first half to start, but want to knock a "bad stretch" that Fleury has had that, well, really isn't all that bad. It's like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.

I don't think it's that simple. I think his struggles overall for the first 30+ games had more to do with a "new environment". He wasn't just a little off, he was downright bad for stretches. Similar to Ryan Miller this year.

Again with these double standards. You're saying that's average at best, then you should be lambasting Bryz for his .895 save percentage over his first 32 starts instead of making excuses for him. You're saying .913 is average at best, then .895 should be bench-worthy. Budaj-territory. New town or not.

That's weighted by 3 bad starts, though. He had 3 games of a 3+ GAA in his last 17 starts. I know they control the puck well, but that's still pretty good. It averages out to about 2.29, but it gets worse the closer to the end of the year it gets. If you go his last 5 games, it's bad. Then again, Bryz gave up 6 goals in his last 2 games too. See, both sides of the coin isn't so hard! Laughing

Again, how are you focusing on 2 bad games against the Islanders when your goalie averaged HORRIBLE stats on his first 30? It's mind-boggling.

Baffling is a good word to describe this. We'll see how it plays out. I'd offer a sig-bet, but I don't even know where to begin with the parameters....


You could point to Smith and say it's the system, but he's a very talented goalie and scouts had been saying for years that he'd eventually develop into a true #1. He's big, athletic, and tremendous with the puck on his stick. Obviously Tippet's system helps, but it's a lot more complex than you're making it out to be. Bryz was a good goaltender in Anaheim regardless, and has showcased his talent and ability at times this season as well, so it's moot.

I don't believe I'm overreacting to Fleury's poor stretch of games or understating Bryz's early season struggles. Just because I provided a list of excuses for his early season struggles, it does not erase the fact that Bryz was awful for the first half of the season by any stretch of the imagination. Do you need me to repeat that? Yes, Bryz was terrible for a stretch of 30+ games. Miller's poor stretch is a good comp.

My point, which you seem to be missing, is that one is entering the post-season on a high note, and the other was very inconstant post ASG. That's all I've been saying from the very beginning of this debate. One poor game against the Rangers, in which he was recovering from a small foot fracture, does not change the former.

I'm not sure exactly what we'd be sig-betting...
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dbtb135


Joined: 22 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
You could point to Smith and say it's the system, but he's a very talented goalie and scouts had been saying for years that he'd eventually develop into a true #1. He's big, athletic, and tremendous with the puck on his stick.


I doubt even you buy that. He had potential, yeah. Great. So do other goalies who never panned out. Smith looked every bit as good as he was supposed to be, but also way better than he's ever looked before this year. Helping him achieve this would indicate the system helps, right? How is conceding a GIVEN like pulling teeth with you? Smith looked like a legit #1 goalie for the first time in his career in Phoenix. Are you to imply that the two aren't connected?

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
Obviously Tippet's system helps, but it's a lot more complex than you're making it out to be. Bryz was a good goaltender in Anaheim regardless, and has showcased his talent and ability at times this season as well, so it's moot.


Dude, just quit. You're trying way too hard now. How are you skewing "he benefited from the system" to "he's never been a good goalie"? His numbers were worlds better last year, so I guess the system had SOME effect?

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
I don't believe I'm overreacting to Fleury's poor stretch of games or understating Bryz's early season struggles. Just because I provided a list of excuses for his early season struggles, it does not erase the fact that Bryz was awful for the first half of the season by any stretch of the imagination. Do you need me to repeat that? Yes, Bryz was terrible for a stretch of 30+ games. Miller's poor stretch is a good comp.


If you're going to bash Fleury for inconsistency and his "poor finish", then you should have similarly bashed Bryz for a bad first half. But it was spun positively. Well, he WAS the 1st star in March and he's in a new environment. I'm not saying it's blatant homerism, but it's not exactly subtle either when you gloss over a HORRIBLE first half and keep skewering 2-3 bad games that Fleury had.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
My point, which you seem to be missing, is that one is entering the post-season on a high note,


You mean his 6 goals allowed in the last 2 starts?

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
and the other was very inconstant post ASG.


Again, his last 17 starts average stats that are well above the league-average. His numbers for March are very good. It seems like a reach, to be quite honest...

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
That's all I've been saying from the very beginning of this debate. One poor game against the Rangers, in which he was recovering from a small foot fracture, does not change the former.

I'm not sure exactly what we'd be sig-betting...


There's no way to statistically quantify a notable goalie advantage.
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dbtb135


Joined: 22 Oct 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

playmaker8267 wrote:
On the prediction San Jose will beat St. Louis, there are a few factors here:

- San Jose is desperate. There's no other way to say it. I don't know how they avoided a massive facelift last spring, but if they flame out again, this core is done. I think we'll see the best of Burns and Boyle, and up front I think the Sharks have enough sandpaper (Galiardi, Pavelski, Winnik) and pure willpower (Marleau, Couture) to beat St. Louis.


San Jose has been desperate before. They're noted "chokers" and continue to not make a Cup final despite some really great teams. I do find it kind of odd that they've got this bad reputation of fumbling it all away in the playoffs and not getting the job done, but they're also argued as having a lot more experience. It's a double-edged sword. Yeah, they have experience, and they also have experience going out before they should...

playmaker8267 wrote:
- Momentum. San Jose leapfrogged LA on the strength of an overtime goal the other night. St. Louis lost four of their last five regular season games, including two in overtime. The Sharks have won seven of their last ten.


Some of the best teams in the playoffs had poor finishes. I'd still be afraid of facing the Pens. The Blues had a TON of momentum going into their last playoffs, and were killing it down the stretch just to make the playoffs. Then they ran into a more talented Vancouver team and were quietly swept. Momentum going into the playoffs is overrated. This isn't the NFL. Momentum with-in the series is invaluable though. Carrying one over to the other is tough.
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love how you act like I'm not giving you an inch with whatever this debate has turned into, and then try and act like Bryz didn't end the year on a high note because he gave up "6 goals in 2 games" when in fact he gave up 5 of those in one of the games and won the other game while allowing just one goal. Not to mention the fact that he broke a bone in his foot and played through the pain in both of those games. Bryz was playing better than Fleury down the stretch. That's not really debatable, which has been my point this ENTIRE time.

Also, are you implying that Bryz was only a good goalie because of Tippet's system? I would disagree with you vehemently if you did feel that way about Bryz, but you are entitled to your opinion. My only point with Smith was that he always had the potential and tools to be a #1. And, yes, his stats this season and Phoenix's system are without a doubt related. I didn't mean to imply other wise, only what I was just repeated.
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bluesfreak74


Joined: 21 Feb 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
bluesfreak74 wrote:
Since when is Bryzgalov a big time goalie? He's [inappropriate/removed] the bed the last two years in the playoffs and didn't exactly light the world on fire in the Olympics (he was TERRIBLE against Canada when they got eliminated).


He was the runner-up to the Vezina, bud.

And yeah, let's judge a goalie off of a grand total of 12 starts. Brilliant sample size. Rolling Eyes


Your point?

Big time is how he plays when it really matters like the playoffs and so far he's been terrible. Two of the three goals tonight were pretty weak.
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BLick12


Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 11:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well after Game 1:

BF: 1
All other suckers: 0

Bryz was pretty solid in game 1. Not much he could do on any of those goals, the 3rd one took a kind of fluky bounce and even hit the butt of his goal stick. But I loved the way he battled back and he made some tremendous saves to keep the Flyers in it.

Fleury made some incredible saves as well, but Briere's second goal was awful (he may have been screened by Crosby) and the rebound on the OT winner was pretty lousy also.

If it wasn't apparent before game 1, this series is gonna be awesome. Cool
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johndeere1707 wrote:

Another Ginger QB in the AFC North.

Looking forward to the "No Soul Bowl" twice a year
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bluesfreak74


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Crosby goal was weak..
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BLick12


Joined: 12 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bluesfreak74 wrote:
Crosby goal was weak..


Uh... it was a great shot from in close... off the cross bar and in, not too many goalies are going to get that. Not to mention a blunder on Grossmann's behalf.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-sUfnHBBXUE
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johndeere1707 wrote:

Another Ginger QB in the AFC North.

Looking forward to the "No Soul Bowl" twice a year
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flyers0909


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 1:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bluesfreak74 wrote:
Crosby goal was weak..


Crosby should have never gotten his stick on the puck and it was a perfect shot. Give it a rest dude. The defense didn't give Bryz any help in the first but he stepped up from there on out and gave his team a chance to comeback and eventually win in overtime.
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bluesfreak74 wrote:
Crosby goal was weak..




I would love to have seen any goalie stop that backhander...

Bryz stood on his head after the initial stanza, making save after save on odd-man rushes and 3 power-plays in the 2nd and 3rd periods. He gave the team the opportunity to come back and take that game, and was one of our best players without question.

He also can't be blamed for any of the goals really, other than maybe the 3rd one, but that was really flukey.
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Last edited by BirdsFan06050 on Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:35 am; edited 1 time in total
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 12, 2012 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

BLick12 wrote:
Well after Game 1:

BF: 1
All other suckers: 0

Bryz was pretty solid in game 1. Not much he could do on any of those goals, the 3rd one took a kind of fluky bounce and even hit the butt of his goal stick. But I loved the way he battled back and he made some tremendous saves to keep the Flyers in it.

Fleury made some incredible saves as well, but Briere's second goal was awful (he may have been screened by Crosby) and the rebound on the OT winner was pretty lousy also.

If it wasn't apparent before game 1, this series is gonna be awesome. Cool


I really just don't get the disrespect so many people have towards Bryz around the league, as if just because he's goofy, and MANY goalies in history have been, that would somehow imply that he's not a good goalie.

I've only tried to point out from the very beginning that he has been a great goalie in the past, his save pct in the post-season is actually .917 for all of those claiming that he's been such a god-awful post-season player, and just because he struggled initially with the Flyers, that doesn't change the fact that he has the ability to be a game-changer.

Fleury certainly does too, but as we saw last night, he made some remarkable saves, only to struggle and seem uncomfortable in net down the stretch, especially after Briere's second tally.

So far though, this series has been all it was hyped to be. Can't wait for Friday.
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bluesfreak74


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 2:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
bluesfreak74 wrote:
Crosby goal was weak..




I would love to have seen any goalie stop that backhander...

Bryz stood on his head after the initial stanza, making save after save on odd-man rushes and 3 power-plays in the 2nd and 3rd periods. He gave the team the opportunity to come back and take that game, and was one of our best players without question.

He also can't be blamed for any of the goals really, other than maybe the 3rd one, but that was really flukey.


I mean it'd be nice to see what picture you posted. Laughing

Goalies should make that save. It was a pretty soft back hander, you have to make those saves in the playoffs. Quit with the excuses, we know you have a serious man crush on him, but you have to be take off the blinders sometimes.

Didn't get to see the game tonight, but 5 goals? Ouch.

1st goal was a hard one

2nd goal he's got to make that save

3rd one I can't tell if it was deflected from the highlight view on NHL.com

4th one he made initial save but left a JUICY rebound out that can't happen, could have been helped by Defense a bit, but you can't let up rebounds like that. Especially after your team scores.

5th was just god awful. i thought the puck was gonna stop by time it got to him.

I guess though all five of those goals weren't his fault.

He did make some great saves like the Letang one really was a great save, but then he'll give up goals he has to make.

Not sure how you are confident in Bryz. You never seem to know what type of goalie you are going to get.
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flyers0909


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 4:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever we're up 2-0 in the series, he made some key stops to keep us in the game along with letting up some horrible goals. Either way I'll take being up 2-0 taking the series back to Philly.
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RainbowCarebear


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 6:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

5th goal was a giant soft one. 2nd isn't pretty, but the rest I blame on the defense not Bryz.

2-0 heading back to Philly Very Happy
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 14, 2012 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The 5th goal was soft, no doubt about it. However, his save on Letang in all likelihood changed the outcome of last nights game, and that was probably his best save in a Flyers uniform. I know on the stat sheet it appears that he had a bad game, but he battled and made some key saves that kept us in the game. He also shut the door once Jagr gave us the lead.

The other guy gave up 7, so it's moot. Pittsburgh looks like a mess defensively, and right now they can't handle our depth and talent. It's not just the defenders like Lovejoy, but the forwards too. Both Sid and Malkin blew defensive coverages that led to two SHG for the Flyers. I said that if they didn't correct these mistakes that they would get exposed by a club that's as potent offensively as the Flyers, and so far that's happening.
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