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What NHL Playoff Matchups are most likely upsets?
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BirdsFan06050


Joined: 02 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 7:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steelcurtain29 wrote:
So one would take Bryzgalov, someone who has struggled all year sans one month, over Marc-Andre Fleury, someone who has consistently been a great playoff goaltender with not only plenty of playoff experience, but put up some excellent numbers against the Flyers in two different winning series?

Strange.... Think


I never said anything remotely of the sort...

To sum up my point in a more simpler manner: Bryz has stellar post ASG numbers, and Fleury has struggled a bit down the stretch. There certainly isn't a big goalie advantage here when all things are considered, especially since both of these guys fluctuate occasionally from terrible to fantastic. Furthermore, just to play devil's advocate I could counter your argument with the fact that Bryz is a former Vezina runner-up and has displayed more consistency in previous seasons than Fleury ever has during his career. His playoff numbers aren't good, but at the same time he has never been on a true contender in the playoffs until right now sans a few starts with Anaheim. We'll see how he responds.

Also, Fleury's numbers against those previous Flyers teams are completely and utterly irrelevant, or have you not noticed the club's offensive turnover and transformation.

Nonetheless, I'd still personally give the slight edge to Fleury because of past playoff success. It's a slight one albeit.
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dbtb135


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Purpes17 wrote:
What does St. Louis have to do to get respect? Win one series? Win 2?


Well, judging by our last playoff appearance and our team being irrelevant for years, I'd say two. But everyone here would be happy to get over the 1 hump. I just don't see the Sharks being as good if we play anywhere near the level we have since Hitch took over.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
To sum up my point in a more simpler manner: Bryz has stellar post ASG numbers, and Fleury has struggled a bit down the stretch. There certainly isn't a big goalie advantage here when all things are considered, especially since both of these guys fluctuate occasionally from terrible to fantastic.


Again, it's REALLY hard to play off Bryz's first half, while also saying that Fleury struggled down the stretch. He didn't even have a bad month, or few weeks. He had a couple of bad games, but it wasn't anything horrible. Bryz didn't exactly close out the year on fire either.

Fleury hasn't fluctuated that much this year at all. He had 1 month with a sub-.909 sv% and 1 month over 2.50 GAA, not counting April because it was so short. And neither of those #s were anywhere near Bryz's numbers for a whole half a season. He's really been consistent the past 2 years. His rep of inconsistency is a little outdated, back when he was making moronic plays on the puck and giving up ungodly bad rebounds. He still gives up some juicy rebounds, but he's really tightened his game up by anyone's standards.
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TheOleBallCoach


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 10, 2012 11:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's too bad the Kings didn't win and get to play the Blues, who I think they'd upset.

Not buying Sharks over Blues. Never have bought into the Sharks. Blues in six.

I think the Sens will give the Rangers a scare, maybe even to a seventh game, but I don't see them winning that series ultimately.
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dbtb135 wrote:
Purpes17 wrote:
What does St. Louis have to do to get respect? Win one series? Win 2?


Well, judging by our last playoff appearance and our team being irrelevant for years, I'd say two. But everyone here would be happy to get over the 1 hump. I just don't see the Sharks being as good if we play anywhere near the level we have since Hitch took over.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
To sum up my point in a more simpler manner: Bryz has stellar post ASG numbers, and Fleury has struggled a bit down the stretch. There certainly isn't a big goalie advantage here when all things are considered, especially since both of these guys fluctuate occasionally from terrible to fantastic.


Again, it's REALLY hard to play off Bryz's first half, while also saying that Fleury struggled down the stretch. He didn't even have a bad month, or few weeks. He had a couple of bad games, but it wasn't anything horrible. Bryz didn't exactly close out the year on fire either.

Fleury hasn't fluctuated that much this year at all. He had 1 month with a sub-.909 sv% and 1 month over 2.50 GAA, not counting April because it was so short. And neither of those #s were anywhere near Bryz's numbers for a whole half a season. He's really been consistent the past 2 years. His rep of inconsistency is a little outdated, back when he was making moronic plays on the puck and giving up ungodly bad rebounds. He still gives up some juicy rebounds, but he's really tightened his game up by anyone's standards.


Bryz was adjusting to a new team, city, defense, system, market, etc. Yea, he struggled. But the guy has proven in the past to be a big-time goalie, and his statistics speak for themselves. Half a season of poor play doesn't change the fact that he can be a game-changer. My only point regarding his play post ASG is that he's entering the playoffs on a better note than Fleury, who has had some dreadful games in the past several weeks. I'm not denying that he struggled early on, but at this point in the season I feel that he's finally been able to make the necessary adjustments and get fully comfortable in his environment.

That argument about Fleury is slightly outdated as he's a very, very good goalie and has made significant improvements, but he's still fairly inconsistent IMO. Just looking at the stats alone from this season, he posted a .913 save percentage, which is average at best, and in his final 11 starts he had just a 2.83 GAA and .900 save percentage. There are times where he lets up ridiculously soft goals and then other moments where he's making some of the most athletic saves you will ever see from a goalie. This was very evident down the stretch, specifically against the Islanders. He had some horrible games plain and simple. Not all of it was his fault, and, as I pointed out previously, their team defense has really struggled lately too. Their players have noted this to reporters as well.

Regardless, your original statement remains baffling to me as I see the match-up much closer to a toss-up than a big advantage.
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bluesfreak74


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 12:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Since when is Bryzgalov a big time goalie? He's [inappropriate/removed] the bed the last two years in the playoffs and didn't exactly light the world on fire in the Olympics (he was TERRIBLE against Canada when they got eliminated).
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dbtb135


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
Bryz was adjusting to a new team, city, defense, system, market, etc.


The only thing I'd buy is that he's moving from great coaching/system in Phoenix that has Mike Smith looking better than Mike Smith has ever looked/is supposed to be. Which is to say he benefited from what was around him, then went to Philly and lost Pronger. The rest are just excuses.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
Yea, he struggled. But the guy has proven in the past to be a big-time goalie, and his statistics speak for themselves. Half a season of poor play doesn't change the fact that he can be a game-changer. My only point regarding his play post ASG is that he's entering the playoffs on a better note than Fleury, who has had some dreadful games in the past several weeks.


You're vastly overrating how bad Fleury has been down the stretch, and vastly underrating how bad Bryz was to start the year. You almost don't even mention Bryz's first half to start, but want to knock a "bad stretch" that Fleury has had that, well, really isn't all that bad. It's like you're talking out of both sides of your mouth.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
I'm not denying that he struggled early on, but at this point in the season I feel that he's finally been able to make the necessary adjustments and get fully comfortable in his environment.


I don't think it's that simple. I think his struggles overall for the first 30+ games had more to do with a "new environment". He wasn't just a little off, he was downright bad for stretches. Similar to Ryan Miller this year.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
That argument about Fleury is slightly outdated as he's a very, very good goalie and has made significant improvements, but he's still fairly inconsistent IMO. Just looking at the stats alone from this season, he posted a .913 save percentage, which is average at best,


Again with these double standards. You're saying that's average at best, then you should be lambasting Bryz for his .895 save percentage over his first 32 starts instead of making excuses for him. You're saying .913 is average at best, then .895 should be bench-worthy. Budaj-territory. New town or not.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
and in his final 11 starts he had just a 2.83 GAA and .900 save percentage.


That's weighted by 3 bad starts, though. He had 3 games of a 3+ GAA in his last 17 starts. I know they control the puck well, but that's still pretty good. It averages out to about 2.29, but it gets worse the closer to the end of the year it gets. If you go his last 5 games, it's bad. Then again, Bryz gave up 6 goals in his last 2 games too. See, both sides of the coin isn't so hard! Laughing

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
There are times where he lets up ridiculously soft goals and then other moments where he's making some of the most athletic saves you will ever see from a goalie. This was very evident down the stretch, specifically against the Islanders. He had some horrible games plain and simple.


Again, how are you focusing on 2 bad games against the Islanders when your goalie averaged HORRIBLE stats on his first 30? It's mind-boggling.

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
Regardless, your original statement remains baffling to me as I see the match-up much closer to a toss-up than a big advantage.


Baffling is a good word to describe this. We'll see how it plays out. I'd offer a sig-bet, but I don't even know where to begin with the parameters....
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steelcurtain29


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

flyers0909 wrote:
Where did anyone said they'd take Bryz over Fleury?


BillsGuy82 wrote:
Id go Bryz over Fleury

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steelcurtain29


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 2:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BirdsFan06050 wrote:
I never said anything remotely of the sort...


Who said my comment was to you?
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flyers0909


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

steelcurtain29 wrote:
flyers0909 wrote:
Where did anyone said they'd take Bryz over Fleury?


BillsGuy82 wrote:
Id go Bryz over Fleury


Sorry sc29, I just assumed you were talking to BF, completely missed what BillsGuy said. My bad.
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playmaker8267


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the prediction San Jose will beat St. Louis, there are a few factors here:

- San Jose is desperate. There's no other way to say it. I don't know how they avoided a massive facelift last spring, but if they flame out again, this core is done. I think we'll see the best of Burns and Boyle, and up front I think the Sharks have enough sandpaper (Galiardi, Pavelski, Winnik) and pure willpower (Marleau, Couture) to beat St. Louis.
- St. Louis is largely inexperienced. Yes, I remember Jaroslav Halak for Montreal and Ken Hitchcock's experience is evident. Even David Backes has experience for Team USA in 2010. Guys the Blues depend on though, guys like David Perron, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo, have little to zero playoff experience. The four St. Louis players I mentioned have a combined eight games of playoff experience.
- Momentum. San Jose leapfrogged LA on the strength of an overtime goal the other night. St. Louis lost four of their last five regular season games, including two in overtime. The Sharks have won seven of their last ten.

The Blues could easily win the series. I'm just predicting San Jose. To answer the question when do the Blues get "love:" when they win a playoff series. I don't know if that will happen this year.
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bluesfreak74


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 1:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

playmaker8267 wrote:
On the prediction San Jose will beat St. Louis, there are a few factors here:

- San Jose is desperate. There's no other way to say it. I don't know how they avoided a massive facelift last spring, but if they flame out again, this core is done. I think we'll see the best of Burns and Boyle, and up front I think the Sharks have enough sandpaper (Galiardi, Pavelski, Winnik) and pure willpower (Marleau, Couture) to beat St. Louis.
- St. Louis is largely inexperienced. Yes, I remember Jaroslav Halak for Montreal and Ken Hitchcock's experience is evident. Even David Backes has experience for Team USA in 2010. Guys the Blues depend on though, guys like David Perron, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alex Pietrangelo, have little to zero playoff experience. The four St. Louis players I mentioned have a combined eight games of playoff experience.
- Momentum. San Jose leapfrogged LA on the strength of an overtime goal the other night. St. Louis lost four of their last five regular season games, including two in overtime. The Sharks have won seven of their last ten.

The Blues could easily win the series. I'm just predicting San Jose. To answer the question when do the Blues get "love:" when they win a playoff series. I don't know if that will happen this year.


You are forgetting guys like Arnott, Langenbrunner, and McDonald who have all won cups. Plus guys like Nichol (40 Games) and Huskins (47 Games won a cup too) have gone deep into the playoffs.

Perron was one of the few guys that showed up in the Vancouver series in '09.

I think the "inexperience" part is way over blown. If the Blues lose in the first round, it won't be because of their experience, it'll be because they got out worked.
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playmaker8267


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 3:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There's absolutely experience on the Blues, but I would say eight of the top ten Blues leaders in TOI are relative playoff noobs. How much experience will really be on the ice for St. Louis during the most crucial moments of the game?
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bluesfreak74


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

playmaker8267 wrote:
There's absolutely experience on the Blues, but I would say eight of the top ten Blues leaders in TOI are relative playoff noobs. How much experience will really be on the ice for St. Louis during the most crucial moments of the game?


The top two lines (forward wise) have been in the playoffs before. Petro who I'm not worried about is paired with Huskins who has plenty of experience. Shattenkirk is with Jackman who is vet who's been in the playoffs before.

Nearly this whole team has been in the playoffs before including multiple players who have won the cup. Some have more experience than others but most of them have been there before so they know what to expect even if it's been very little.

Here is the lineup for the Blues to start fwiw, expect Hitch to change lines though:

Perron-Backes-Oshie
Steen-Berglund-McDonald
Sobotka-Arnott-Stewart
Reaves-Nichol-Langenbrunner

Huskins-Pietrangelo
Jackman-Shattenkirk
Russell-Polak

Halak
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bluesfreak74 wrote:
Since when is Bryzgalov a big time goalie? He's [inappropriate/removed] the bed the last two years in the playoffs and didn't exactly light the world on fire in the Olympics (he was TERRIBLE against Canada when they got eliminated).


He was the runner-up to the Vezina, bud.

And yeah, let's judge a goalie off of a grand total of 12 starts. Brilliant sample size. Rolling Eyes
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BirdsFan06050


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 11, 2012 6:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

steelcurtain29 wrote:
BirdsFan06050 wrote:
I never said anything remotely of the sort...


Who said my comment was to you?


My apologies as well.
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