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Things Other Than the Redskins Thread 4.0
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 12:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28, in the past, I have just mocked you and shook my head at your Wizards' fandom. You have pointed out that with Wall back, they're playing much better and that this points to 2013 to be a great season.

You may be right, but the fundamentals of the team don't really support that concept.

Before I begin, let me first off state that I am by no means a basketball guy. I barely watch the sport, in no small part to realizing that the local team is a doomed franchise. As such, I'm going to rely heavily on other sites to evaluate player value. If you wish to dispute the values from the sites I reference, take it up with them.

Let's start with the most recent transaction the Wizards made: the Jordan Crawford deal. Now, Crawford was unhappy with the amount of playing time he was getting. The last time he started was on December 22nd because:
The AP (on Dec 26) wrote:
Crawford was late to Wednesday's shootaround according to a team source. Before the game, Wittman said that Crawford was benched for a violation of team rules.


Okay, so he was a bit of a chucklehead, and probably needed to be disposed of. However, in exchange for Crawford, the Wizards got a 31 year old backup guard who tore his ACL a week before the trade went down and a 35 year old backup center who had scored 37 points the entire season to go along with 74 personal fouls. Yes, two fouls for every point scored.

The good news is that they're contracts are expiring at the end of this season, and shipping Crawford means that they're saving $2.6M in cap space for 2013. That's good and all ...

Except the reason they have to make such pennies-on-the-dollar moves is because of their other big move of the 2013 offseason: namely trading Rashard Lewis for Emeka Okafor and Trevor Ariza. Now, it made sense back in June because: A) you dumped Rashard Lewis' insanely big contract, and B) you got two decent locker room presence guys to pair up with Wall.

Of course, the combination of Okafor and Ariza essentially ate all of the salary cap space you saved by dealing Rashard Lewis to the Hornets (who promptly bought Lewis out ten days later ... and then he signed with the Heat 11 days after that (and seems likely to win a NBA Championship ring because of it)). However, you did end up with a starting center and a starting small forward.

Oh wait, no, you ended up with a starting center and a backup small forward since the Wizards made Martell Webster the starting small forward for most of the season (a guy they picked up right before the season for an one year deal of $1.6M or $1.75M (sources differ in his salary)). Yes, you cannot factor that Webster would be available on August 29, when you made the deal on June 20. Still, the guy making 25% of your trade target is starting over him. Ouch.

Which leads to the next problem: Ariza has a player option for the 2013 season. This occurs at the same time Webster's one year deal expires. That's right, it's possible that the Wizards could have zero small forwards come 2013 that were on the roster in 2012. Now, apparently Webster has said that he wants to come back and the Wizards have made it somewhat clear that they want him back. This could in turn make Ariza decide to jump ship. He would only be 28 on June 30th (his birthday), and HoopsWorld has him as their 5th best small forward free agent should he decide to jump.

Of course, if he doesn't jump, the Wizards end up in a sticky situation with Webster. They're up against the cap. (*) Should Ariza stay (and he has 7.7M reasons to stay), Webster might have no choice but to sign on somewhere else. That would be a problem since Ariza would be an unrestricted free agent in 2014. Given that Washington has become a place you flee from as opposed to go to, you have to figure Ariza wouldn't come back in 2014.

Which gets to the next problem: the other free agents (depth chart courtesy of RotoWorld).

A.J. Price (#2 PG): free agent this year
Leandro Barbosa (#3 PG): free agent this year
Garrett Temple (#2 SG): free agent this year (ESPN lists him as restricted, but RotoWorld and Spotrac list him as unrestricted; HoopsWorld doesn't list him at all for some reason)
Cartier Martin (#3 SG): free agent this year
Martell Webster (#1 SF): free agent this year
Jason Collins (#3 C): free agent this year

We've already discussed the roster dead weight of Collins and Barbosa, as well as possibly losing their starting small forward (or backup if Ariza decides to book). However, look at those guards. All of your backups underneath Wall and Beal are heading out the door. Sure, Wall and Beal are your linchpins and the guys you would build around, but even they need breathers. I mean, they've never had any injuries or anything ...

Sure, you can go get other free agents to replace them except all four themselves were dirt cheap replacements (none cost more than $850K). You've got no depth and no chemistry. Good times!

Oh, but wait, what about 2014?

John Wall (#1 PG): restricted free agent in 2014-15
Trevor Ariza (#2 SF): free agent in 2014-15 (if he doesn't terminate his contract early)
Trevor Booker (#2 PF): restricted free agent in 2014-15
Jan Vesely (#3 PF): team option in 2014-15
Chris Singleton (#4 PF): team option in 2014-15
Emeka Okafor (#1 C): free agent in 2014-15 (if he doesn't terminate his contract early)
Kevin Seraphin (#2 C): restricted free agent in 2014-15


A couple of things:
- One of the few good things for 2014 will be to excise the mistake that was the 2011 draft. Only Ernie Grunfeld would even consider keeping either Vesely or Singleton on the roster.
- Wall has been sniffing around for a max deal contract or a max extension. Now, ignoring whether he should get it, he probably will because the Wizards have built their franchise around him. But he's said he'd be "hurt" if he had to play under the restricted tag. Probably a negotiating ploy, but still something to keep in mind. A lot of sites I've seen have been really down on Wall, but it seems the main reason why is that he wasn't a superstar from the jump and had to grow into his role (as well as deal with a toxic wasteland of a locker room when he was drafted and a bunch of injuries) ... hmm, maybe that max deal isn't such a good idea?
- Booker looks to be a league average/replacement level power forward. Keeping him at the restricted level makes sense, if you haven't found someone to replace him in either the 2013 or 2014 draft.

However, the biggest problem there? Okafor. Didn't I mention that like Ariza he can also terminate his contract this offseason?

Now you may ask yourself, why in the world would he give up $14.5M dollars as there is little to no chance he could make that this year somewhere else? This is true. However, Okafor will be 31 in September, which means he would be 32 in September of 2014. What's the going rate for a 32 year old center in the NBA these days?

Now, multiple sites have him as a top free agent (HoopWorld's 6th best C, SI's 28th best overall free agent, DimeMag's 26th best overall), so he probably could get a deal that goes three or four years and gives him $30-40M across the life of the contract. That would be better than having the money stop in a year.

Okay ... let Okafor walk and you have Kevin Seraphin, who looks like a solid young ... power forward. He's 6'9", which is a great size for a #4, but is a bit short for a true center. Sure you can roll with that, but that's dangerous. Even if you keep him, you only have one center on the roster if Okafor jumps ship and you let Collins go (as you should).

In short, here's your entire roster come 2015 (and you don't bother keeping Vesely or Singleton):
John Wall (assuming you paid him)
Bradley Beal
Nene Hilario
Kevin Seraphin

And Nene will be a 34 year old free agent the following year, if you haven't already dealt him and his $13M a year contract.

Now, if you had a good drafting GM, you could get some good young talent to surround Wall and Beal with. Alternatively, if you are lucky, you could end up at the top of the draft boards and just pick the best available player. Of course, Grunfeld is a horrible GM, and the Wizards are doing everything in their power to win games when it doesn't matter and actually hurts their long term prospects.

They're not going to be attract top free agents this year because they don't have the cap space unless Ariza and/or Okafor choose to leave. Even if both do leave, that gives further credence to the fact that Washington is a place you flee from, not go to. There's a stink around the franchise that most free agents don't want to get on their nice suits.

All that said, let's say everything comes up roses for the Wizards in this offseason (Ariza and Okafor leave, Webster stays, they get a top center to replace Okafor in the draft and deal Nene for future pick or young players). Let's say that they keep on the pace that they have since Wall came back (Jan 12) with no fall off after losing two three major players and adding others. What will that net them?

At best, the 4th seed because even with all of that, they won't have the talent to run with the Heat consistently. Right now, they're 21-16 since Wall's return, which would be good for a 0.568 record or a five seed. Barring a massive health issue for Jame and/or Wade, it's unlikely they'll be able to compete for the top spot in the Southeast division.

And that's if everything comes up perfectly. Remember, the Wizards have their own Cerrato in Grunfeld. And given that Wall's return has made things look upwards (even if it is a mirage), I suspect his job is safe.




(*) Okay for the record, I have no idea how the cap in the NBA works. It's a soft cap since you can go over it and pay a luxury tax. And you can somehow go over it but not pay a luxury tax by marking a player with one of a series of exemptions. And apparently you can wash your hands of bad deals from time to time with amnesties (though that might have been a one time thing with the new CBA?). All in all, a very weird situation. Still, the Wizards are up against it and it doesn't look like Leonis wants to pay the tax.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 26, 2013 9:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Geeze Woz! I'll have to get back to you on that one, holly cow man. Laughing
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Jeezy Fanatic


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 11:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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SeanTayorsaPIMP


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 1:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy
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Redskins24-7


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SeanTayorsaPIMP wrote:
Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy


And his second. Wink
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London Fletcher: 16 GP, 111 tackles, 2 sacks
Pierre Garçon: 16 GP, 113 catches, 1346 yards, 5 TDs
Roy Helu, Jr: 16 GP, 62 rushes, 274 yards, 4 TDs; 31 catches, 251 yards
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mike23md


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Redskins24-7 wrote:
SeanTayorsaPIMP wrote:
Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy


And his second. Wink


Strasburg gets his 1st win. Soriano with his 1st save.

I hope this season was just like last.
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Redskins24-7


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mike23md wrote:
Redskins24-7 wrote:
SeanTayorsaPIMP wrote:
Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy


And his second. Wink


Strasburg gets his 1st win. Soriano with his 1st save.

I hope this season was just like last.


Regular season, I hope you mean! I think we all would prefer a slightly different ending overall!
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RIP SuperSkinFan
London Fletcher: 16 GP, 111 tackles, 2 sacks
Pierre Garçon: 16 GP, 113 catches, 1346 yards, 5 TDs
Roy Helu, Jr: 16 GP, 62 rushes, 274 yards, 4 TDs; 31 catches, 251 yards
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 3:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Redskins24-7 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
Redskins24-7 wrote:
SeanTayorsaPIMP wrote:
Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy


And his second. Wink


Strasburg gets his 1st win. Soriano with his 1st save.

I hope this season was just like last.


Regular season, I hope you mean! I think we all would prefer a slightly different ending overall!


They beat the Marlins....dont get 2 excited just yet!!!! GO BRAVES!!!
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mike23md


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
Redskins24-7 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
Redskins24-7 wrote:
SeanTayorsaPIMP wrote:
Jeezy Fanatic wrote:
Nats season is back Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy


Haha and Bryce Harper homers at his first at bat. Very Happy


And his second. Wink


Strasburg gets his 1st win. Soriano with his 1st save.

I hope this season was just like last.


Regular season, I hope you mean! I think we all would prefer a slightly different ending overall!


They beat the Marlins....dont get 2 excited just yet!!!! GO BRAVES!!!


BOOO
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daboyle250


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 01, 2013 5:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sean Taylor would've turned 30 today... Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

http://blog.redskins.com/2013/04/01/remembering-sean-taylor-on-30th-b-day/


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DCRED wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
I'm still cleaning up the stains in my pants! Laughing
Ewwww.
worse thing is they've been there since Shanahan was fired
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

daboyle250 wrote:
Sean Taylor would've turned 30 today... Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad

http://blog.redskins.com/2013/04/01/remembering-sean-taylor-on-30th-b-day/

wow! Unbelievable. He would have still been his prime. Sucks to think what would have been.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 12:31 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
The good but actually bad news: They'll probably steal some of those games that they shouldn't.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/wizards-top-bulls-90-86-014341433--nba.html

Currently that puts them as the 10th worst team in the NBA, and thus holding an only 4% chance at getting one of the top three draft positions.

I'm calling it now: should the Wizards not get a top three pick, they're taking Rudy Gobert, center out of France.
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Brian23


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 4:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Woz wrote:
The good but actually bad news: They'll probably steal some of those games that they shouldn't.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/wizards-top-bulls-90-86-014341433--nba.html

Currently that puts them as the 10th worst team in the NBA, and thus holding an only 4% chance at getting one of the top three draft positions.

I'm calling it now: should the Wizards not get a top three pick, they're taking Rudy Gobert, center out of France.


I feel like Ted is the epitome of the worst owner in DC, if not one of the worst out there. Sure, he's "patient" but all the moves his teams make (or refuse to make) always seem to revolve around building hype and making them money.

At least Snyder is willing to look like an [inappropriate/removed] for his franchise to win.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
Woz wrote:
Woz wrote:
The good but actually bad news: They'll probably steal some of those games that they shouldn't.


http://sports.yahoo.com/news/wizards-top-bulls-90-86-014341433--nba.html

Currently that puts them as the 10th worst team in the NBA, and thus holding an only 4% chance at getting one of the top three draft positions.

I'm calling it now: should the Wizards not get a top three pick, they're taking Rudy Gobert, center out of France.


I feel like Ted is the epitome of the worst owner in DC, if not one of the worst out there. Sure, he's "patient" but all the moves his teams make (or refuse to make) always seem to revolve around building hype and making them money.

At least Snyder is willing to look like an [inappropriate/removed] for his franchise to win.
Snyder screws over everyone, the fans and everything else around DC to get what he wants. It didn't take Ted very long to rebuild the Caps and have them winning the presidents cup, the wizards have rather quickly rebuilt through the draft and could have the best young back court in the nba. I'd take Ted over Danny any day of the week.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 03, 2013 9:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Lerners over everyone
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