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Wishful thinking draft

 
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cdavls17


Joined: 28 Jan 2007
Posts: 3150
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 3:31 pm    Post subject: Wishful thinking draft Reply with quote

If the bills stay put at 9 I think they will not have a shot at a top player. My guess is Bortles, bridgewater or Manziel, watkins, Evans, Mack, clowney and two OTs Mathews and Richardson all picked ahead. With that said the next top options are Lewan, Beckham Jr, Penn, and Ebron. They really don have a major glaring need this year. Bills can reach at lower tier guys like Lewan and Beckham. Penn isnt really an answer as Bills have top tier DTs and good depth. Some think Ebron is a good pick however with the bills a 1st run offense and the lack of ability of him blocking he just doesn't seem worth the 9th pick even if he is a good player. As per this quote I think this breaks down Ebron to a T:

Quote:
I think Ebron has been oversold as a prospect every step of the way. He's not performing as well as everyone says he can, and for some reason no one cares. We were told he was an outstanding receiver who could catch anything and make big plays, but he drops more than 1 out of every ten passes thrown his way. We were told he was a dominant athlete on par with Vernon Davis, and he turned in a good, but not outstanding Combine workout, getting beaten by guys like A.C. Leonard, Jace Amaro, and Colt Lyerla in those workouts. And then he pulled out of any positional drills due to "tweaking his hamstring." Yet everyone talks about how Ebron had a fantastic Combine and cemented himself as the top TE prospect in years. It's just confusing.

I just don't like guys who are the product of massive hype when I don't think they deserve it. Ebron is who he is - An average-sized tight end with outstanding separation skills and body control, who doesn't have good hands and isn't going to be a good inline blocker.


With that being said I think the Bills should move up even if giving up future picks. The bills front office is said to be all in on EJ so I see them giving atleast 2 more years with him. After Texans take Bortles at 1. I think the bills make a deal with the Rams giving up the 9th pick this year, a 5th round this year, 1st 2015 and a 2015 4th round that can be turned in to a 3rd depending on certain performances (if bills have a winning record or reach the playoffs in 2014). The bills give up enough but are still able to land 3 starters this year in the draft.

With the Texans drafting Bortles at 1, Bills draft:

2. Clowney DE USC
41. Carlos Hyde RB Ohio St
73. Marcus Roberson CB (not sure if he will be there but if not) Keith McGill
109. Martavis Bryant WR Clemson
224. Charles Siddoway OT Miss St

Im the minority on RT being such a huge need at the moment, with Hairston coming back I think bringing in another veteran like Winston could help the oline on the cheap. Bills re-signing Chandler and have Moaeki as well I dont see a TE being taken this year as well. The bills land a premier pass rusher who is said to be one of the best coming out of college in over a decade. The bills then get their future RB with Hyde whether they re-sign cj spiller or not he is still a need as Jackson is going to be 32 this year and will be a FA. Bills also land a solid CB that fixes the one weak link on defense. Bryant could be their red zone target they have been looking for.
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Trentwannabe


Joined: 28 Dec 2007
Posts: 3368
Location: Igloo, Canada
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 3:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bills get Clowney

Rams get:
Bills 2014 1st
Bills 2014 5th
Bills 2015 1st
Bills 2015 4/3rd.

I would take that. Especially if we added Hyde in the 2nd this year(going to try and do that in FFMD II). I tend to agree with you in that our "perceived needs" have guys on the roster who could easily fill the role.

TE: Moeaki and Chandler could fill the void
RT: Marrone seems to like Hairston and younger guys like Coughman/Colling to fill the void
WR: Have to see what Woods and Goodwin do in year 2.

This leaves our top two needs (or as the Bills could see it) as DE and LB. I would not be unhappy trading up for Clowney or taking Donald or Mosley at 9.
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cdavls17


Joined: 28 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I did forget about Mosley as being an option at 9 but with the spikes and rivers signing and bradham having a decent year I dont see them grabbing a LB this early but mosley is a solid player
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Tk3


Joined: 15 Feb 2007
Posts: 1961
PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Two opinions on this:

1. I severely doubt we can get from 9 to 2 for that price. Clowney is no QB, but he is the best defensive prospect since...... Suh maybe? The price will be high. RG3 went for #6 plus two more 1sts plus a 2nd. While Clowney will not command what RG3 did, he will be more than 9 + 1st + two late picks. However, if we CAN get that deal, I take it in a heartbeat.

2. Is Hyde the right guy to take toward the top of the 2nd? We have Spiller, and even with Freddy aging I have to imagine you take something other than a backup RB at that point. I don't see Hyde as the talent to be worth that.


I'd love Clowney, but I think calling that trade "Wishful thinking" doesn't do justice how long of a shot that would be.
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cdavls17


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 5:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TK3 I have said this before just like in life it all comes down to simple economics of supply and demand. You can base it off of RG3 or you can base it off of last years trade of Dion Jordan from 12 to pick 3 and the dolphins only gave up a 2nd to move up 9 spots. It all comes down to who are the interested parties to move up and who is willing to move down. I didnt do the texans as they have had months to figure out their plan if they want clowney to try and fit in their 3-4 scheme they already made up there mind. If they want a Qb then why make the move up to 1 and give up more picks? So I went with the Rams at 2, they have been known to make moves and were partners with the bills in last years draft.

Im not a rams follower but I can see the rams going for one of the LTs or Watkins at 2. Their defense is stacked and they need help on offense. The fact that they spent a high pick on Tavon Austin last year might sway their stance on placing another pick on a wr so Watkins might not be a top choice for them at 2.

Now you look at what other teams that would be willing to move up to take at 2, with bortles taken 1 of the top 2 to 3 qbs are gone. I could see maybe Cleveland trying to trade up to get a QB if they think Jags are going QB as their selection. So they would have to jump them. However I am not sure if they are willing to spend more picks as they are in rebuild mode with all of the changes in front office and coaching staff. I could see the falcons trying to trade up as they have done in the past but I know they have to straighten out their terrible oline so they might not be willing to trade up to get clowney. With that said I do not know of any other top 10 teams looking to move up to select a player.

So if the bills offer a trade with the rams and they want out of pick 2 and no other team wants in on that pick then they can get it for cheap, if falcons or browns want in then the price will be high. RG3 went for 3 1st round picks simply because of browns battling with redskins for him. The dolphins only gave up a 2nd round pick simply because no other team was willing to move up to get a player, so the raiders landed the best they could get. I basically came up with something that is in the middle of the two top trades the last 2 years and came up with something reasonable for both teams. This benefits the rams as they will hold 2 1st round picks this year and 2 next year.

As for Hyde I think he is a solid running back and could take over Fred jacksons role in 2014. Also Cj spiller and Fred Jackson have been injury alot the past few years so having another capable running back to take the full load if they both went down would be hyde. Yes they signed dixon but I see him as a goal line or short carry guy and mainly a special teamer as the special teams was one of the worst in the league and he had a solid career so far in this department. Im also thinking long term since Fjax and Spiller are FA if they have a guy like hyde then they wont have to worry so much come next offseason to resign either of them and having to overpay for their services. I think the RB position will be filled in this draft whether it is in round 2 is another question. If a WR like Kelvin Benjamin falls to them, CB or Rb like Hyde I think they have to go BPA at 41. The bills aren't really in a must need area yes they have flaws but not ones that are glaring.
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TommyC376


Joined: 08 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Don't want to trade up, nor do I think buffalo will trade up. We aren't a DE away from the playoffs, we have needs at RT, TE, DE, LB, FS, and possibly LG. Selling the farm for a player who was recently called "spoiled and lazy" by an unnamed NFL exec. I don't think it's true but for what it's worth I'm not an NFL exec. I also don't think Clowney will live up to all the yho he is getting. I think he will be a solid DE, but to me he seems to not got 100% on all the snaps discourages me.

Plus for that price there is no way we can move up to #2. If your scenario pans out, why wouldn't we try and trade back and pick up multiple picks and take Zach Martin with a mid teens pick to play RT. Or Beckham Jr. To me trading up makes no sense. If we were in desperate need for a WR, I could understand and see us trading up to #2 for Watkins, but with the DLine we have there is no need to seek the farm for a DE who will play second fiddle to Mario Williams.
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Tk3


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 8:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cdavls17 wrote:
TK3 I have said this before just like in life it all comes down to simple economics of supply and demand. You can base it off of RG3 or you can base it off of last years trade of Dion Jordan from 12 to pick 3 and the dolphins only gave up a 2nd to move up 9 spots. It all comes down to who are the interested parties to move up and who is willing to move down. I didnt do the texans as they have had months to figure out their plan if they want clowney to try and fit in their 3-4 scheme they already made up there mind. If they want a Qb then why make the move up to 1 and give up more picks? So I went with the Rams at 2, they have been known to make moves and were partners with the bills in last years draft.

Im not a rams follower but I can see the rams going for one of the LTs or Watkins at 2. Their defense is stacked and they need help on offense. The fact that they spent a high pick on Tavon Austin last year might sway their stance on placing another pick on a wr so Watkins might not be a top choice for them at 2.

Now you look at what other teams that would be willing to move up to take at 2, with bortles taken 1 of the top 2 to 3 qbs are gone. I could see maybe Cleveland trying to trade up to get a QB if they think Jags are going QB as their selection. So they would have to jump them. However I am not sure if they are willing to spend more picks as they are in rebuild mode with all of the changes in front office and coaching staff. I could see the falcons trying to trade up as they have done in the past but I know they have to straighten out their terrible oline so they might not be willing to trade up to get clowney. With that said I do not know of any other top 10 teams looking to move up to select a player.

So if the bills offer a trade with the rams and they want out of pick 2 and no other team wants in on that pick then they can get it for cheap, if falcons or browns want in then the price will be high. RG3 went for 3 1st round picks simply because of browns battling with redskins for him. The dolphins only gave up a 2nd round pick simply because no other team was willing to move up to get a player, so the raiders landed the best they could get. I basically came up with something that is in the middle of the two top trades the last 2 years and came up with something reasonable for both teams. This benefits the rams as they will hold 2 1st round picks this year and 2 next year.

As for Hyde I think he is a solid running back and could take over Fred jacksons role in 2014. Also Cj spiller and Fred Jackson have been injury alot the past few years so having another capable running back to take the full load if they both went down would be hyde. Yes they signed dixon but I see him as a goal line or short carry guy and mainly a special teamer as the special teams was one of the worst in the league and he had a solid career so far in this department. Im also thinking long term since Fjax and Spiller are FA if they have a guy like hyde then they wont have to worry so much come next offseason to resign either of them and having to overpay for their services. I think the RB position will be filled in this draft whether it is in round 2 is another question. If a WR like Kelvin Benjamin falls to them, CB or Rb like Hyde I think they have to go BPA at 41. The bills aren't really in a must need area yes they have flaws but not ones that are glaring.


Believe me, I get supply and demand.. Any my point of saying Clowney is the best defensive prospect since Suh is my way of saying the demand to trade up for him will be high..

I have seen reputable mock sites have the Falcons trading up to get him, which also suggests higher demand..

I guess my point is: What in the world makes you think this will be a "lower demand" trade slot when we are talking a once in a decade type of DE prospect?
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cdavls17


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 13, 2014 10:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tommy the bills need upgrades but not needs. As for trading the farm 4 picks in 2 years isnt farm and what player would be available in order to allow people to trade up to 9? There really isnt a top tier player left. Im also tired , of getting 2nd tier players that makes the bills a 2nd tier team. If a pass rusher who came out of high school as the #1 prospect and has kept that reputation for 3 years and is still arguably the best player in the draft why wouldnt you want to go for him? I dont even bother listen to these hacks on the radio or blogs about a source claiming he is lazy its all BS to stir the pot. The falcons and bills are said to be linked to clowney. I dont think a team outside of top 10 can afford to move up unless they give up 3 1st rd picks. Im tired of fans saying the bills arent a player away from a championship. You act like the bills are giving up all 6 picks this year. This is a huge stepping stone in the right direction. Tight end isnt a need they resigned chandler and have moeaki who they paid good money for. To draft one high if at all to me doesn't make much sense. As for RT I know marrone had high hopes for hairston last year and I think him and pears will be serviceable. To draft a 2nd tier OT at 9 is just silly they can land similar quality in the 2nd rd. The bills have the best shot at beating teams like the Patriots and broncos through defense then offense. You have to make up for not having an elite qb. The ravens did it, seahawks did it and san fran has been trying to do it. Bringing in a front 4 of clowney, williams, dareus, and williams can reak havoc on offenses
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BillsGuy82


Joined: 16 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 12:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Manuel needs proper protection so I doubt we take a RB that high. If we don't go Lewan,Robinson or Matthews at 9 we must go OLine at 41.
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thedishere


Joined: 22 Jan 2008
Posts: 765
Location: Ra Cha Cha
PostPosted: Mon Apr 14, 2014 1:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

this scenario Is not bad considering that Mario prefers to play LE So Clowney Can still play RE in our 4-3. That is a scary front four. I think being in the NFL will push Clowney to give his max effort every play because that is what it will take for him to stay in this league. I also think Marrone is a coach he can truly respect and could get the most out of a player like Clowney. I think Hairston can come in and play either LG or RT and I believe Marrone has some guys he has been developing who can step up to compete for the other position Hairston doesn't take (assuming he returns to pre-injury form). Which could lead to the Bills hold off on an OT until the later rounds. In this scenario I see FS being the top position to address with our next pick though especially loosing Byrd. If anything he is competition for Searcey and also gives us a solid third safety rotate to groom.
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