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Top QB's numbers for passing distances. ((UPDATED))
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KingofSTATS


Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Posts: 9262
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:38 pm    Post subject: Top QB's numbers for passing distances. ((UPDATED)) Reply with quote

So anyways in another thread someone said a certain QB dinks and dunks because his RB's and TE's always have alot of yds or receptions. But position has nothing to do with routes or distance a pass is thrown. So I decided to look at the census top 6 QB's and their numbers for attempts their last 3 full seasons (So I included Brady's 07 season)

My qualification was 10 yds </= dinking and dunking

11 yds >/= beginning to stretch the field.

If someone would like to see different distances or feels that these distances are not accurately depicting what "stretching the field" is and what "dinking and dunking" is. Let me know. I can revamp them.

Remember these splits are not for distance of play. They are how far the pass travels. I can do completions as well. But I think attempts is more indicative of how a QB attacks the field.

UPDATED** I added a PDE scoring system. (Passing Distance Efficiency) So beyond just looking at who goes further with their passes more frequently. I wanted to measure who is efficient also at doing it.

It's basically comp% * AVG * TD% / Int% + Passer rating. For the passes that travel 11 plus yds in the air.

I think 11 is sufficient distance, because it leaves two layers with potential for all 3 of the defense to impede the pass from the LOS to the target. Remember I am not suggesting anything by this data, other than the facts it displays, make of it what you want.

I will try to add on certain QB's per request. Such as Romo and Eli.








Ranks for QB's who go 11+ yds the most.

1. Rivers
2. Ben
3. Eli
4. Romo
5. Peyton
6. Rodgers
7. Brees
8. Brady
9. Schaub


Ranks for QB's who go 21+ yds the most

1. Rodgers
2. Rivers
3. Peyton
3. Eli
4. Ben
5. Brees
6. Romo
7. Brady
8. Schaub


Ranks for QB's who throw for 10 yds and shorter the least.

1. Rivers
2. Ben
3. Eli
4. Peyton
5. Romo
6. Rodgers
7. Brees
8. Brady
9. Schaub


Ranks for QB's with the best PDE for 11+ yds AVG for 3 years

#1. Brady
#2. Rivers
#3. Brees
#4. Romo
#5. Schaub
#6. Ben
#7. Rodgers
#8. Eli
#9. Peyton



Ranks for QB's with the best PDE for 21+ yds AVG for 3 years.

1. Brees
2. Romo
3. Schaub
4. Rivers
5. Ben
6. Brady
7. Rodgers
8. Eli
9. Peyton


Ranks for QB's with the best PDE for 21+ and 11+ combined avg for 3 seasons.


1. Brees
2. Brady
3. Rivers
4. Romo
5. Schaub
6. Ben
7. Rodgers
8. Eli
9. Peyton



OVERALL

Rivers = 13

Ben = 21

Brees = 25

Romo = 26

Brady = 33

Eli = 33

Rodgers = 34

Peyton = 39

Schaub = 39
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Last edited by KingofSTATS on Sat Oct 01, 2011 5:37 pm; edited 7 times in total
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TheVillain112


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You should include Rex Grossman... Laughing
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KingofSTATS


Joined: 29 Jan 2008
Posts: 9262
PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

P.S I always wanted to do a chart/spread sheet for QB's, but was too lazy. So don't hesitate to criticize if there is any flaw in it or if it's misleading, or inaccurate to correlation to the message, etc.
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KingofSTATS


Joined: 29 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 4:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheVillain112 wrote:
You should include Rex Grossman... Laughing


It wouldn't be fair to the other top 6 to have to live up to Rex's standards.
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wackywabbit


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 5:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yea, I think most of us already knew that Rivers goes down the field more often than other top QBs.
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mse326


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know quite how detailed the data is that you got this from but I would probably remove all screens (to RB's or otherwise).

I've just always seen that as different than dinking and dunking, but it may be me. My reasoning is that it isn't about the distance of the pass or going under the coverage, but inviting the defenders forward and supressing aggressiveness.

Again that may be me, and it also probably isn't going to make that much of difference either.

I'm also not sure that 10 yards is a great cutoff, but I can't say what I think is better so that's fine.

I'd also say throw aways shouldn't count since I don't think that's indicative at all either way of what is trying to be proved. Again don't know how detailed the data is.

Definitely interesting results.
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Steelerspower


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am not surprised that Roethlisberger and Rivers are the two best.
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KingofSTATS


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Steelerspower wrote:
I am not surprised that Roethlisberger and Rivers are the two best.


Ehh I just realized Ben's avg for 3 seasons of passes 10 yds or shorter is wrong. Formula did not carry over correctly.

I will fix that.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Didnt realize Brady's passes were so safe in 2010. maybe that explains the 4 INTs?
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KingofSTATS


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ehh all there avgs for 3 seasons are off. I forgot to drop down the formula 1 cell. My bad. I'll fix that right now!
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KingofSTATS


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
Didnt realize Brady's passes were so safe in 2010. maybe that explains the 4 INTs?


Crazy thing is it wasn't much safer than Brees in 2010 and he still had a ton of ints.
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KingofSTATS


Joined: 29 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 6:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mse326 wrote:
I don't know quite how detailed the data is that you got this from but I would probably remove all screens (to RB's or otherwise).

I've just always seen that as different than dinking and dunking, but it may be me. My reasoning is that it isn't about the distance of the pass or going under the coverage, but inviting the defenders forward and supressing aggressiveness.

Again that may be me, and it also probably isn't going to make that much of difference either.

I'm also not sure that 10 yards is a great cutoff, but I can't say what I think is better so that's fine.

I'd also say throw aways shouldn't count since I don't think that's indicative at all either way of what is trying to be proved. Again don't know how detailed the data is.

Definitely interesting results.


Yeah unfortunately the splits aren't that detailed, that it breaks down passes to RB's, TE's or WR's.

To me personally dinking and dunking implies certain distant passes, regardless if they are to a WR, RB or TE. Atleast to me. It denotes a short, safer higher percentage of passes.

It also doesn't show throw aways unfortunately either.

I'll probably do some more spread sheets like this for QB's and certain splits on type of passes they are throwing, in terms of where on the field they are throwing, routes if possible, formations. Also include comp% and passer rating for those as well.

Now that I broke the ice with doing this project finally I'm going splurge. KingofSpreadsheet. Laughing
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simpleminded


Joined: 18 May 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Who honestly believes that Rivers dinks and dunks more than any other QB? There's a reason his YPA Is significantly higher than any other QB's.

And it's worth mentioning that one of those tight ends he "dumps off" to is Antonio Gates, and I think it's safe to say that Gates is a different breed of tight end who stretches the field like no other in the business. There's a reason why teams sacrifice so many defenders to stop him. Traditional "security blanket" tight ends don't draw those kind of matchups.


P.S.
You were right about Sproles, we love him. Smile
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KingofSTATS


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

simpleminded wrote:
Who honestly believes that Rivers dinks and dunks more than any other QB? There's a reason his YPA Is significantly higher than any other QB's.

And it's worth mentioning that one of those tight ends he "dumps off" to is Antonio Gates, and I think it's safe to say that Gates is a different breed of tight end who stretches the field like no other in the business. There's a reason why teams sacrifice so many defenders to stop him. Traditional "security blanket" tight ends don't draw those kind of matchups.


P.S.
You were right about Sproles, we love him. Smile


Well someone believe he does, I wont say who. But I always wanted to do this project just to get an idea of where the top 6 stack up. So that poster's comment was just the extra incentive.

You are completely right about Gates. With him out Randy McMichael won't be used the same way Gates was, obviously. Doesn't have the ability and will be used more as a conventional TE in the passing game.

Told you, Sproles is a beast and I even see NO using him alot lined up out wide and running deeper routes and not just swing routes. Especially on NO's home turf, Sproles is going to be fun to watch there. Has that extra initial burst that other's lack.

Brees and Sproles... SD continues to contribute to the offense in New Orleans

Laughing
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BlaqOptic


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

simpleminded wrote:
Who honestly believes that Rivers dinks and dunks more than any other QB? There's a reason his YPA Is significantly higher than any other QB's.

And it's worth mentioning that one of those tight ends he "dumps off" to is Antonio Gates, and I think it's safe to say that Gates is a different breed of tight end who stretches the field like no other in the business. There's a reason why teams sacrifice so many defenders to stop him. Traditional "security blanket" tight ends don't draw those kind of matchups.


P.S.
You were right about Sproles, we love him. Smile


First of all I never said that Rivers doesn't go deep. 7 and 9 routes are a staple of the Chargers offense. However, what is also an equal part of that offense is that the 7 and 9 routes clear out the underneath routes for halfbacks and tight ends.

By no coincidence the people who break down the film seem to believe it as well given that last week they broke this down during "Playbook" and the commentator pointed it out during the broadcast of the Week 3 game.

You can claim it's Antonio Gates all you want but the reality is that twice Gates has only accounted for 700 yards in 2 of those 3 seasons and only 40% overall of the yardage from tight ends and halfbacks.

Your definition and mines of "Dinking and Dunking" differs. Distance of the throw to me does not matter. Obviously a 20 yard toss isn't a dink. Additionally a Halfback Screen and a Wide Receiver Screen isn't dinking and dunking because that's a set play. However consistently taking what the defense gives you does indeed count as "Dinking and Dunking" to me. An 11 yard throw to a halfback in the flat isn't a difficult throw(unless you're Ben damn Roethlisberger who doesn't get this concept). Nor is a 14 yard in as difficult as even a 15 yard post. So the distance of the throw is meaningless without considering the target and the route. Obviously throws 30, 40 yards down the line are different here.

Just because the throw was 11 yards downfield doesn't mean it was difficult nor a dink/dunk.

KoS didn't show anybody anything they didn't know here. Everyone knows that the Chargers defense is predicated on the 7 and 9 routes. What most people don't seem to understand is the same offense is also predicated on those routes clearing the underneath work for Rivers to hit the halfbacks and tight ends if he doesn't have the confidence in his wide receiver to win the jump ball situation/outrun the defender while it's in the air. When the routes clear out but he doesn't trust the guys he checks down to halfbacks and tight ends... A lot. This isn't conjecture. It's fact. With the space cleared out they tend to get a lot of YAC hence the high YPA.

.5 more YAC per Catch than Brady.
.8 more YAC per Catch than Roethlisberger.
2.1 more YAC per Catch than Manning.
.6 more YAC per Catch then Rodgers.
1.7 more YAC per Catch then Rivers.

In plain sight this might not seem like much but over 400-500+ passes it adds up to additional yardage...

But again... I've never said Rivers doesn't go deep. I even admitted it was a staple of the offense. Just that that same staple causes him to also throw short to halfbacks and tight ends a lot more than everyone else because of this reason.
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