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FF's "Official" Top 100 Players List(2011) Debate
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 43872
PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 3:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RashaanSalaami wrote:


With how quickly players can become irrelevant, I don't think it holds much merit to discuss something from 3 years ago when McBriar has CLEARLY outpunted Jones over the past 2 seasons. I'm not saying the difference is HUGE, but it clearly exists.

I deleted the numbers from my spreadsheet so I don't feel like recalculating everything, but for argument's sake, if you just included Jones' 2008 season into the mix, McBriar would still have the better NET, I20:TB ratio, I20%, FC%, yards per return, and EASILY the better return yards per punt.

I'm sorry, but McBriar is CLEARLY the better punter here. The numbers all point that way. The only thing really in your favor is Gross Avg. and that's really about as effective as measuring linebackers with tackles or receivers with yards per catch.


McBriar would NOT have a better net. And return yards per punt is a pretty worthless stat for comparing punters. It's like trying to use the overall defense's yards per game numbers for individual players.

I think if you really take the numbers in context and look at them, you'd realize that Jones is the better Punter.
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RashaanSalaami


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 4:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
RashaanSalaami wrote:


With how quickly players can become irrelevant, I don't think it holds much merit to discuss something from 3 years ago when McBriar has CLEARLY outpunted Jones over the past 2 seasons. I'm not saying the difference is HUGE, but it clearly exists.

I deleted the numbers from my spreadsheet so I don't feel like recalculating everything, but for argument's sake, if you just included Jones' 2008 season into the mix, McBriar would still have the better NET, I20:TB ratio, I20%, FC%, yards per return, and EASILY the better return yards per punt.

I'm sorry, but McBriar is CLEARLY the better punter here. The numbers all point that way. The only thing really in your favor is Gross Avg. and that's really about as effective as measuring linebackers with tackles or receivers with yards per catch.


McBriar would NOT have a better net. And return yards per punt is a pretty worthless stat for comparing punters. It's like trying to use the overall defense's yards per game numbers for individual players.

I think if you really take the numbers in context and look at them, you'd realize that Jones is the better Punter.


No. Donnie Jones' NET would still have only been 40.9 which is less than McBriar's 41.1. I wasn't including McBriar's 08 numbers because that would have required more calculations. I was roughly eyeballing Jones' 08 numbers to see if they were strong enough to give him the nod in any category compared to what I had already calculated for McBriar from the past 2 seasons.

I don't understand what numbers there are to put into context. Which numbers, aside from GROSS punting, gives Donnie Jones the nod as the better punter? I've laid all the numbers out and they all tilt in McBriar's favor. The only real one you have on your side is Gross, which everyone knows is a ridiculous number to use for comparison. It disregards punters who sacrifice hang time for distance.

Secondly, Return Yards per Punt is not even CLOSE to using defensive yardage to compare defensive players. Punters have by far the most importance on the punting unit. It obviously doesn't all fall on the punter, but a good punt really de-emphasizes the need for a good return unit. I understand that it's not a perfect stat, but it does pin a lot on the punter. If that were the only number in McBriar's favor, I'd understand where you're coming from, but it's not.

I could admit if there was an argument to be made in favor of Jones, but you're simply wrong on this one and bias has you blind here. You haven't provided one decent argument in favor of Jones aside from Gross punting, which is not an argument at all.
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 43872
PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

RashaanSalaami wrote:


No. Donnie Jones' NET would still have only been 40.9 which is less than McBriar's 41.1. I wasn't including McBriar's 08 numbers because that would have required more calculations. I was roughly eyeballing Jones' 08 numbers to see if they were strong enough to give him the nod in any category compared to what I had already calculated for McBriar from the past 2 seasons.


There's no way McBriar has him beat in net punting average:
Jones:
2010 - 40.0 net punting average
2009 - 41.7 net punting average
2008 - 41.1 net punting average

McBriar:
2010 - 41.7 net punting average
2009 - 39.9 net puting average
2008 - 38.8 net punting average

Quote:
I don't understand what numbers there are to put into context. Which numbers, aside from GROSS punting, gives Donnie Jones the nod as the better punter? I've laid all the numbers out and they all tilt in McBriar's favor. The only real one you have on your side is Gross, which everyone knows is a ridiculous number to use for comparison. It disregards punters who sacrifice hang time for distance.


Lets talk about context, how about the fact that Donnie Jones was on a team that picked #1 in 2009 and a team who picked #2 on 2008? Both teams had awful offenses. In 2010, Mat McBriar was on a bad team. Lets compare McBriar's 2010 to Jones's 2008 and 2009:

Mat McBriar:
2010 - 47.9 average, 41.7 net average, 22 in the 20, 8 touchbacks and 7 FCs

Donnie Jones:
2009 - 46.8 average, 41.7 net average, 34 in the 20, 10 touchbacks and 12 FCs
2008 - 50.0 average, 41.1 net average, 20 in the 20, 7 touchbacks and 7 FCs

Look at how big of a hit McBriar's in the 20 punts took a hit and look how his touchbacks shot up. He also had BY FAR the best net average of his career. In that context, I think Donnie Jones is better.

Now then, comparing Jones in 2010 on a decent team(albeit still with a weak offense) and McBriar in 2009 on a great team:

Mat McBriar:
2009 - 45.1 average, 39.9 net average, 38 in the 20, 3 touchbacks and 23 FCs

Donnie Jones:
2010 - 45.5 average, 40.0 net average, 32 in the 20, 4 touchbacks and 21 FCs

McBriar is better in this regard but look at how Donnie's touchbacks fall way down, his FCs shoot up and his net average is still 40 or more.

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.

Quote:
Secondly, Return Yards per Punt is not even CLOSE to using defensive yardage to compare defensive players. Punters have by far the most importance on the punting unit. It obviously doesn't all fall on the punter, but a good punt really de-emphasizes the need for a good return unit. I understand that it's not a perfect stat, but it does pin a lot on the punter. If that were the only number in McBriar's favor, I'd understand where you're coming from, but it's not.


Yea, it is. I linked you to Ted Ginn's 78 yard PR TD this year against the Rams. It was a 54 yard punt with great hang time and the Rams had 2 gunners within 5 yards of him when he caught the punt and both fell down. The coverage unit means just as much as the Punter does. Look at Mike Scrifres, imo he's a top 5 Punter and probably top 3 in terms of hang time and yet his return unit had 28 returns for OVER 500 yards.

Quote:
I could admit if there was an argument to be made in favor of Jones, but you're simply wrong on this one and bias has you blind here. You haven't provided one decent argument in favor of Jones aside from Gross punting, which is not an argument at all.


I've provided arguments but you're not interested in them. You're so hung up on data here but you're trying to compare unlike situations and call them like. You're totally disregarding any outside variables that clearly exist.
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djmixer30


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

i have some differences in opinions on some guys but at least you don't have Arian Foster in front of MJD... good job to all the panelist you killed NFLN's list.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 9:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.
exist.


You're neglecting something that should be INCREDIBLY obvious though, as well. You can't simply talk about punts inside the 20 without also mentioning the total punts. You compared McBriar's 09 to Jones's 2010, for instance. Well, Jones had 32 TBs, and McBriar had 38. Not too far off, right? Well, Jones punted 94 times, while McBriar punted only 72. So in 2009, OVER HALF of McBriar's punts were inside the 20, while in the year you saw as comparable, Jones's 09, he was at about a third.

Regardless of the ability of the two teams, I find it difficult for an argument to be made that McBriar has had more of ANY kind of punting opportunity than Jones.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.
exist.


You're neglecting something that should be INCREDIBLY obvious though, as well. You can't simply talk about punts inside the 20 without also mentioning the total punts. You compared McBriar's 09 to Jones's 2010, for instance. Well, Jones had 32 TBs, and McBriar had 38. Not too far off, right? Well, Jones punted 94 times, while McBriar punted only 72. So in 2009, OVER HALF of McBriar's punts were inside the 20, while in the year you saw as comparable, Jones's 09, he was at about a third.

Regardless of the ability of the two teams, I find it difficult for an argument to be made that McBriar has had more of ANY kind of punting opportunity than Jones.


This clearly contradicts the earlier point in your post. There, you try to bring up percentage then you return to dispute overall opportunities. Which one do you want to focus on?
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.
exist.


You're neglecting something that should be INCREDIBLY obvious though, as well. You can't simply talk about punts inside the 20 without also mentioning the total punts. You compared McBriar's 09 to Jones's 2010, for instance. Well, Jones had 32 TBs, and McBriar had 38. Not too far off, right? Well, Jones punted 94 times, while McBriar punted only 72. So in 2009, OVER HALF of McBriar's punts were inside the 20, while in the year you saw as comparable, Jones's 09, he was at about a third.

Regardless of the ability of the two teams, I find it difficult for an argument to be made that McBriar has had more of ANY kind of punting opportunity than Jones.


This clearly contradicts the earlier point in your post. There, you try to bring up percentage then you return to dispute overall opportunities. Which one do you want to focus on?


...They're tied in together. Both relate to total punts. You wanted to say that being on a better offense, McBriar had more opportunities to place punts inside the 20, I was refuting that because somewhere in the 30+ extra punts that Jones got over McBriar, he probably passed any extra opportunities McBriar had gotten by pure gross punts.

Where is the contradiction? You just seem to be refusing to argue back...perhaps because you can't?
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.
exist.


You're neglecting something that should be INCREDIBLY obvious though, as well. You can't simply talk about punts inside the 20 without also mentioning the total punts. You compared McBriar's 09 to Jones's 2010, for instance. Well, Jones had 32 TBs, and McBriar had 38. Not too far off, right? Well, Jones punted 94 times, while McBriar punted only 72. So in 2009, OVER HALF of McBriar's punts were inside the 20, while in the year you saw as comparable, Jones's 09, he was at about a third.

Regardless of the ability of the two teams, I find it difficult for an argument to be made that McBriar has had more of ANY kind of punting opportunity than Jones.


This clearly contradicts the earlier point in your post. There, you try to bring up percentage then you return to dispute overall opportunities. Which one do you want to focus on?


...They're tied in together. Both relate to total punts. You wanted to say that being on a better offense, McBriar had more opportunities to place punts inside the 20, I was refuting that because somewhere in the 30+ extra punts that Jones got over McBriar, he probably passed any extra opportunities McBriar had gotten by pure gross punts.

Where is the contradiction? You just seem to be refusing to argue back...perhaps because you can't?


I'm pointing out the holes in your theory. I'll still argue that he didn't but if you want to argue that, go ahead but then don't try and use % in the 20 as a stat for your case because that clearly contradicts your point. In that stat, you're dismissing any sort of gross numbers.

Oh and Jones didn't punt 30+ more times. McBriar had 72 punts compared to Jones having 94 punts. That's 22 more punts.
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The LBC wrote:
Harper41 wrote:
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But would he do it in a Sharknado?
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Jakuvious


Joined: 06 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 10:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
Jakuvious wrote:
jrry32 wrote:

Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.
exist.


You're neglecting something that should be INCREDIBLY obvious though, as well. You can't simply talk about punts inside the 20 without also mentioning the total punts. You compared McBriar's 09 to Jones's 2010, for instance. Well, Jones had 32 TBs, and McBriar had 38. Not too far off, right? Well, Jones punted 94 times, while McBriar punted only 72. So in 2009, OVER HALF of McBriar's punts were inside the 20, while in the year you saw as comparable, Jones's 09, he was at about a third.

Regardless of the ability of the two teams, I find it difficult for an argument to be made that McBriar has had more of ANY kind of punting opportunity than Jones.


This clearly contradicts the earlier point in your post. There, you try to bring up percentage then you return to dispute overall opportunities. Which one do you want to focus on?


...They're tied in together. Both relate to total punts. You wanted to say that being on a better offense, McBriar had more opportunities to place punts inside the 20, I was refuting that because somewhere in the 30+ extra punts that Jones got over McBriar, he probably passed any extra opportunities McBriar had gotten by pure gross punts.

Where is the contradiction? You just seem to be refusing to argue back...perhaps because you can't?


I'm pointing out the holes in your theory. I'll still argue that he didn't but if you want to argue that, go ahead but then don't try and use % in the 20 as a stat for your case because that clearly contradicts your point. In that stat, you're dismissing any sort of gross numbers.

Oh and Jones didn't punt 30+ more times. McBriar had 72 punts compared to Jones having 94 punts. That's 22 more punts.


No...because the gross is what gives you the percentage. What the hell kind of good would it do for me to come in and just say "well...Jones punts more." That's useless. That's basically what you're saying I'd have to do to not "contradict myself"?

And I mistyped, there. Meant to hit a 2, not a 3.
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RashaanSalaami


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 10, 2011 11:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
There's no way McBriar has him beat in net punting average:
Jones:
2010 - 40.0 net punting average
2009 - 41.7 net punting average
2008 - 41.1 net punting average

McBriar:
2010 - 41.7 net punting average
2009 - 39.9 net puting average
2008 - 38.8 net punting average


McBriar's 2 year NET: 41.1
Jones' 3 year NET: 40.9

That was my initial calculation for argument's sake. Now it obviously looks stupid to make those comparisons, but it was initially to minimize the amount of work I'd need to do. Regardless, 3 years ago doesn't really make a huge difference anymore. You don't use that performance for other players, so why should you for McBriar vs. Jones? It doesn't make any sense to me.

Quote:
Lets talk about context, how about the fact that Donnie Jones was on a team that picked #1 in 2009 and a team who picked #2 on 2008? Both teams had awful offenses. In 2010, Mat McBriar was on a bad team. Lets compare McBriar's 2010 to Jones's 2008 and 2009:

Mat McBriar:
2010 - 47.9 average, 41.7 net average, 22 in the 20, 8 touchbacks and 7 FCs

Donnie Jones:
2009 - 46.8 average, 41.7 net average, 34 in the 20, 10 touchbacks and 12 FCs
2008 - 50.0 average, 41.1 net average, 20 in the 20, 7 touchbacks and 7 FCs

Look at how big of a hit McBriar's in the 20 punts took a hit and look how his touchbacks shot up. He also had BY FAR the best net average of his career. In that context, I think Donnie Jones is better.

Now then, comparing Jones in 2010 on a decent team(albeit still with a weak offense) and McBriar in 2009 on a great team:

Mat McBriar:
2009 - 45.1 average, 39.9 net average, 38 in the 20, 3 touchbacks and 23 FCs

Donnie Jones:
2010 - 45.5 average, 40.0 net average, 32 in the 20, 4 touchbacks and 21 FCs

McBriar is better in this regard but look at how Donnie's touchbacks fall way down, his FCs shoot up and his net average is still 40 or more.


Why does this make a difference? Shane Lechler plays for a perennial garbage team and it makes no difference for him. For a while Andy Lee was a great punter and he played for an anemic offense. Same goes for Brian Moorman.

In the context of a career, Donnie Jones is a better punter, but that's not the point of this list. That's the point you're missing here. Jones is more consistent over his career maybe, but McBriar was better over a 1 and 2 year span.

Quote:
Basically, you've been pretty unfair in your statistical breakdown. It would be like trying to compare 2 great HBs but one has an elite OL and one has a bad OL and acting as if all is fair. It's not. Donnie has him beat in average and net average because he was on bad teams and was normally punting from his own territory while McBriar has punts in the 20 because he was on a good team and had more opportunities there.


As noted above, the quality of the team shouldn't make a huge impact for punters. I don't think the comparison is like that at all.

Quote:
Yea, it is. I linked you to Ted Ginn's 78 yard PR TD this year against the Rams. It was a 54 yard punt with great hang time and the Rams had 2 gunners within 5 yards of him when he caught the punt and both fell down. The coverage unit means just as much as the Punter does. Look at Mike Scrifres, imo he's a top 5 Punter and probably top 3 in terms of hang time and yet his return unit had 28 returns for OVER 500 yards.


The coverage unit clearly means something, but it's not as if the Cowboys have a great unit, or the Rams. The Chargers unit was especially bad and that shows by the anomalies in Scifres' numbers. Still, the punter is the biggest factor on that unit.

Listen, I'd kill to have Jones or McBriar on the Packers, but I'm just saying McBriar has outperformed Jones in the recent years and as such, McBriar is a better punter RIGHT NOW than Jones.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ok, you say team quality doesn't effect numbers. Lets put that to a test, I'll compare the I20 percentage for the Punter on the best team(in regular season) and the Punter on the worst team going back 5 years.
2010:
Best Team - Zoltan Mesko - 32.8%
Worst Team - Jason Baker - 23.2%

2009:
Best Team - Pat McAfee - 32.8%
Worst Team - Donnie Jones - 37.8%

2008:
Best Team - Craig Hentrich - 31.0%
Worst Team - Nick Harris - 26.7%

2007:
Best Team - Chris Hanson - 29.5%
Worst Team - Brandon Field - 13.0%

2006:
Best Team - Mikes Scifres - 50.7%
Worst Team - Shane Lechler - 24.7%

I think that proves a lot. Especially looking at 2006. Donnie Jones was the only one immune to the curse. Even the great Shane Lecher couldn't overcome it.

I also would like to show I20 to TB ratio:
2010:
Best Team - Zoltan Mesko - 19 to 5
Worst Team - Jason Baker - 22 to 7

2009:
Best Team - Pat McAfee - 21 to 6
Worst Team - Donnie Jones - 34 to 10

2008:
Best Team - Craig Hentrich - 27 to 13
Worst Team - Nick Harris - 24 to 6

2007:
Best Team - Chris Hanson - 13 to 6
Worst Team - Brandon Fields - 10 to 6

2006:
Best Team - Mike Scifres - 35 to 2
Worst Team - Shane Lechler - 19 to 19

It doesn't seem to have QUITE as much of an effect here but I think the Scifres and Lechler numbers do speak for themselves. I'd also say if you broke it down to top 5 and bottom 5, the data would really start to show much more of an effect.
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RashaanSalaami


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

First off, it's more likely that bad teams will just have bad punters.

Second of all, the I20%, I can see a decent correlation. Good teams are more likely to have good offenses who will be more likely to be punting from better field position making it easier to drop a punt in the 20. Still, I like the I20:TB stat a lot better, for which you have a lesser correlation. And if you look at the ratios from best to worst this year, you have the following teams (in order):

SEA
WAS
PHI
NYJ
BAL
STL
MIA
OAK
MIN
TEN
ATL
CLE
GB
CHI
CIN
NE
HOU
JAC
NO
TB
KC
ARI
CAR
IND
DET
SF
DAL
DEN
BUF
NYG
PIT
SD

I can't see much of a trend in that on quick glance. You have good teams at the top and good teams at the bottom. There are more bad teams located toward the bottom, but again that could also be explained by the fact that bad teams are more likely to have bad players.

Finally, you mentioned outside factors which I failed to consider. Here's one:

Mat McBriar:
2010
Outdoors: 5 games, 47.9 avg, 10:6 I20:TB ratio
Indoors: 11 games, 48.0 avg, 12:2 ratio
2009
Outdoors: 8 games, 43.4 avg, 19:2 ratio
Indoors: 8 games, 46.7 avg, 19:1 ratio

Outdoors Avg (13 games): 47.2
Indoors Avg (19 games): 45.7

Donnie Jones:
2010
Outdoors: 5 games, 42.9 avg, 11:1 ratio
Indoors: 11 games, 47.1 avg, 21:3 ratio
2009
Outdoors: 6 games, 45.2 avg, 12:4 ratio
Indoors: 10 games, 48.1 avg, 22:6 ratio

Outdoors Avg (11 games): 44.1
Indoors Avg (21 games): 47.5

McBriar seems better at striking the ball in uncontrolled conditions.
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jrry32


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 1:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I art confused. Yes, McBriar has an average that's 1.6 better per punt but Jones has a ratio of 23 to 5 compared to McBriar's of 29 to 8. So gross punting average favors McBriar but I20 to TB ratio favors Jones.
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MaddHatter


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 11, 2011 8:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 and RS - It might make more sense to create a new topic to debate punters seeing as neither McBriar or Jones made the Top 100 list (nor seem to be getting consideration to break into it) and seems to have really derailed discussion and debate related to the players that did make this list.

BlaqOptic - where do we stand in regards to revising the Top 100 and finalizing it?
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