3-4 DE's, by the #'s

Waldo · Joined: 29 Nov 2006 Posts: 22679 Location: The ATL

Round 2 of my numbers study, defensive ends.

I found that there is good data for the '04 draft, so my database has been fully updated from that draft.

This encompasses every single player that was drafted to play 3-4 DE from '04-'10, some UDFA's, plus all that I could find that switched teams, plus most of this year's prospects.

All prospects are color coded by a simple rating system:

Gray text is assumed values, for when data isn't available (not used much, but it has its uses). Dark violet text is pro day data. All other data is combine data (I used combine data wherever possible).

Houston players yet to switch to a 3-4 are unrated, like rookies (hopefully I got 'em all).

Slow Pokes:

This is the first filter for prospects. Here there was way more correlation with the quality of the 10 than the quality of the 40, so 10 times were used.

My speed rating formula:
100*(1-(10 Time/(0.0114*(Wt/Ht)+1.1785)))

Was used, every prospect scoring -1.00 or less is in this group. Slow players are low success players, at least in the defensive front 7, here is no different. This is a very strong trend, I would personally avoid any in the slow group unless I was REALLY sure about them otherwise.

I came up with a 3-4 DE specific metric, formula that seems unusually effective. There was a correlation between the SS and the 3C, but not necessarily both, being good at one or the other seemed good enough. So I came up with the 3-4 DE simple agility rating formula, which is:

Agility Rating = 4.80 - SS + 7.80 - 3C

Which has a better correlation than either the 3 cone or the short shuttle individually.

The players above are sorted by their agility rating.

There is one player who is fast enough, but unusually unagile, but I didn't bother to print out his #'s, Kade Weston of NE.

.....

From there I split them into 3 different player types based on their mass. The DE types, the UT types, and the NT types. The first group split off was the NT group.

NT Types:

What defines a NT type? I used weight/height, if over 50.0, they are a jumbo DE or NT sized.

I split this group off early because their success seems at best vaguely related to the success of other groups.

The NT group is sorted by their explosive power rating, the same formula used for 3-4 OLB's.

Explosive power rating = (Vert + 3.5*Broad)*(Wt/Ht) / 3000

There isn't really a good way to rate this group apparent yet, I just kinda threw them all together and picked a sort that seemed appropriate, Ngata is #1 by many different sorts.

Low Explosion DE Types:

There are an unusual number of these guys this year.

What defined a DE types was anything less than 47.0 in the simple mass formula listed above (seemed like an appropriate place).

This group also had less than 1.00 in the explosive power rating formula.

There is some success in this group, and no outright busts, though there aren't any elite players either. Some good ones though. Many of these guys are pretty good at getting to the QB.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

I don't have an issue with drafting any player in this group, especially those guys at top.

High Explosion, Low Agility DE Types:

This group used the same sizing criteria as the low explosion DE types, however everybody in this group scored 1.00 or better in the explosive power rating formula.

Oddly enough, there doesn't seem to be as much success here, but there is a good reason it seems. upcoming will be a different group that filters the cream of the crop off of this group. This group all performed relatively poorly in the agility drills, all have an agility rating of <0.50.

With no prospects this year, this group isn't all that interesting.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

Low Explosion UT Types:

The UT types are defined as being between 47.0 and 50.0 in the simple mass formula. All of these guys scored less than a 1.00 in the explosive power formula.

Overall the rules for the DE types and the UT types seem the same. Both are broken into the same groups.

This is overall a very boom or bust group.

This group is sorted by the agility rating formula.

Unlike the DE types, there have been no high explosion, low agility UT types drafted or tried at 3-4 DE in the last 7 years.

Superior Prospects:

This group is assembled without regards to size. Every player in this group passed the speed filter, has a explosive power rating greater than 1.00, and an agility rating greater than 0.50. The only measurables not considered for inclusion in this group are arm length, bench reps, and 40 time (10 time is, 40 is used in lieu of the 10).

This is a group of across the board good athletes for the position.

There is a lot of success here. However it is a group that also averages 1.5 prospects per year. These guys are RARE.

Summary:

I think there are two strong trends here. Guy that are slow in the 10 don't make good 3-4 DE's. Guys that are very good across the board, have a very good chance of working out. Other guys are a bit hit or miss, however guys with good cone and shuttle times seem to do better.

Links:

3-4 OLB's, by the #'s
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HawaiiFan808 · Joined: 05 Jan 2009 Posts: 2907 Location: Honolulu, HI

Mike Neal looks like a steal now. Great post Waldo, as usual. Very Happy

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N. Collins Fan · Joined: 16 Feb 2007 Posts: 6700 Location: Twin Cities

The greatest trend I see is that drafting this position is anyone's best guess. Not a lot of hits. Probably why these guys go in big numbers every year.
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