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Trading down - rumor
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gregoreo22


Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 2652
Location: GB
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hauschild wrote:
If you guys wanna see the Packers improve sooner rather than later, you better get down on your knees and pray TT deals away the #5 pick.


I disagree. You think getting 2 potentially very good players is better than getting a big time playmaker? Descent players are easy to come by; we need playmakers.
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gregoreo22


Joined: 20 Dec 2005
Posts: 2652
Location: GB
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mgcc1949 wrote:
I wouldn't hate him if he was to able to get a good package out of it. No draft choice is a sure thing. Hawk may end up being the LB of all time. He may not.


but the fact that he could potentially be one of the best all time has to mean something--you don't see that kind of up-side in most players.
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msmre


Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20292
Location: Chicago, IL
PostPosted: Thu Feb 09, 2006 9:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hauschild wrote:
If you guys wanna see the Packers improve sooner rather than later, you better get down on your knees and pray TT deals away the #5 pick.


Yes, if you want to be a .500 team for the next 5-10 years, by all means trade the pick. With Favre, we needed complimentary players.

No, if you want to be Super Bowl bound this decade. You need genuinely great players, not great value players. We got great value from Gado, but do teams game plan around him. No. We got great value from Kampman, but do teams double him. No. We need a guy who is great independant of everything else or we will be stuck with mediocrity (which is an improvement) instead of winning.

You choose.

My main issue with trading down is that we give up control. What happens if we trade down and Huff, Hawk, and Mario are gone? Then we are stuck with Greenway, Maroney, or some other schlub like always. Part of the fear on this board has to do with the fact that it is difficult to admit that we are bad and actually need to restock the shelves.
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Gilbert Burger


Joined: 23 Dec 2005
Posts: 3145
Location: The 414
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 1:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just because we trade down doesn't mean we will not get a great playmaker or even an all pro. There were many great playmakers taken in the 2nd round last year. Shawne Merriman was the #12 pick last year and was CLEARLY the best player drafted.

Last year's 2nd round:
#45 Lofa Tatupu
#48 Odell Thurman
#56 Darrent Williams

Last year's 3rd round:
#70 Channing Crowder
#71 Alex Smith

Last year's 4th round:
#106 Kyle Orton
#109 Marion Barber
#110 Brandon Jacobs
#132 Chris Canty !

Now look at last year's top 10 picks:
1. Alex Smith: Looks underwhelming
2. Ronnie Brown: Should be real good
3. Braylon Edwards: Showed nothing to warrant this pick
4. Cedric Benson: Couldn't get on the field
5. Carnell Williams: Rookie OPOY, great pick
6. PacMan Jones: Looked awful at corner, good return man
7. Troy Williamson: Did nothing, and showed little
8. Antrell Rolle: Hurt, pretty much whole season
9. Carlos Rogers: Will be good player, decent rookie year
10. Mike Williams: Showed very little.

WHERE ARE YOUR CAN'T MISS PLAYMAKERS HERE? WE CAN FOR SURE MOVE OUT OF THE TOP 10 AND STILL COME AWAY WITH A QUALITY DRAFT!

The names included in the picks 11-20 are:
Demarcus Ware
Shawne Merriman
Derrick Johnson
Alex Barron
Marcus Spears
Thomas Davis

That is a much better group than the top 10 IMO.
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msmre


Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20292
Location: Chicago, IL
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Gilbert Burger wrote:
Just because we trade down doesn't mean we will not get a great playmaker or even an all pro. There were many great playmakers taken in the 2nd round last year. Shawne Merriman was the #12 pick last year and was CLEARLY the best player drafted.

Last year's 2nd round:
#45 Lofa Tatupu
#48 Odell Thurman
#56 Darrent Williams

Last year's 3rd round:
#70 Channing Crowder
#71 Alex Smith

Last year's 4th round:
#106 Kyle Orton
#109 Marion Barber
#110 Brandon Jacobs
#132 Chris Canty !

Now look at last year's top 10 picks:
1. Alex Smith: Looks underwhelming
2. Ronnie Brown: Should be real good
3. Braylon Edwards: Showed nothing to warrant this pick
4. Cedric Benson: Couldn't get on the field
5. Carnell Williams: Rookie OPOY, great pick
6. PacMan Jones: Looked awful at corner, good return man
7. Troy Williamson: Did nothing, and showed little
8. Antrell Rolle: Hurt, pretty much whole season
9. Carlos Rogers: Will be good player, decent rookie year
10. Mike Williams: Showed very little.

WHERE ARE YOUR CAN'T MISS PLAYMAKERS HERE? WE CAN FOR SURE MOVE OUT OF THE TOP 10 AND STILL COME AWAY WITH A QUALITY DRAFT!

The names included in the picks 11-20 are:
Demarcus Ware
Shawne Merriman
Derrick Johnson
Alex Barron
Marcus Spears
Thomas Davis

That is a much better group than the top 10 IMO.


So what you are saying that in the 2nd round, you have less than a 10 chance of finding a playmaker.

I am not sure that you watched the games this year becuase Davis is a bust and did not start, nor did he play. Spears did not start either.

In the top 10, Brown played very well, but shared carries with Ricky. Edwards was playing very well when he got hurt (again, not sure if you have cable, but he looked really good). Williams was ROY. Benson will start this year.

Looks like the top 10, has double the starters as the next ten.
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SterlingSharpe


Joined: 21 Jan 2006
Posts: 1957
Location: Frisco, Texas
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 11:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I see all sides to this issue and each side has a case. It is true, USUALLY your best players are found at the top of the drafts, and the Packers never get to select from this top, cream of the crop area. So we are fortunate to be able to land a guy with the potential of a Mario Williams or an A.J. Hawk.

That being said, the poster correctly pointed out just some of the recent studs who were found from picks #11-#20, as well as 2nd and 3rd, 4th round jewels. There are always some diamonds in the rough in those areas.

My point is this: Why is AJ Hawk such a lock for a can't miss prospect? What do we predict based on? Size? Speed? Performance so far? Or are we totally going off media hype?

It's proven that often times these scouts, GMs overrate the size and speed factor. Guys like Zach Thomas, Robert Mathis, London Fletcher, Bob Sanders, etc.. show that size doesn't determine if a guy can make plays or not, all those guys are Pro Bowlers this year. Thomas and Fletcher were #2 and #3 in the NFL this year in tackles and both of these LBers are under 6 feet tall.

Anyway, has anyone watched Ohio State games this year? Last I checked, they play in the Big Ten, the same conference as Iowa.
Iowa has a LB who made more tackles than Hawk did. Abdul Hodge led the Big Ten in tackles this season. He's a run stuffing machine and he might be there in early round two. If he's not, Ernie Sims most likely will be there and he has the same size as Thomas and Fletcher, but is even faster.

These would be reasons why we might be smart by trading down. If we can get an EXTRA player of this type of caliber, you'd have to do it. We have plenty of holes to fill and to get an extra starter who might make as many plays would be huge, plus rookies are cheaper and can more esily be molded into our system then a free agent.

But to predict what we would get from a particular team in a trade is the hardest part.


http://bigten.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2005-2006/confldrs.html#conf.wi2
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msmre


Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20292
Location: Chicago, IL
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tackles alone determine skill.

Example: Who is a better LB Lofa Tuputu or Nick Barnett?

Barnett had nearly 100 more tackles than Tuputu.

For the Hawk vs. Greenway analysis, I watched both Iowa and OSU games. If you look at overall production there is no comparison. Hawk is all over the field making tackles, getting sacks, and causing turnovers. Greenway is solid and a good tackler, but may not be as impactful as Hawk.
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MadWisconian


Joined: 02 Feb 2006
Posts: 1685
Location: Washington, D.C.
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Greenway is solid and a good tackler, but may not be as impactful as Hawk.


Then again, Hawk may just be Brian Bosworth all over again.

Quote:
Tackles alone determine skill.


Really? If one guy is on the field twice as much as another cause his offense stinks doesn't that dramatically affect his statistics?
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msmre


Joined: 01 Apr 2005
Posts: 20292
Location: Chicago, IL
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 2:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MadWisconian wrote:
Quote:
Greenway is solid and a good tackler, but may not be as impactful as Hawk.


Then again, Hawk may just be Brian Bosworth all over again.

Quote:
Tackles alone determine skill.


Really? If one guy is on the field twice as much as another cause his offense stinks doesn't that dramatically affect his statistics?


What I meant was that tackles do not determine skill.
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planc33


Joined: 01 Jul 2005
Posts: 138
Location: Barnes, Wi
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

msmre wrote:
MadWisconian wrote:
Quote:
Greenway is solid and a good tackler, but may not be as impactful as Hawk.


Then again, Hawk may just be Brian Bosworth all over again.

Quote:
Tackles alone determine skill.


Really? If one guy is on the field twice as much as another cause his offense stinks doesn't that dramatically affect his statistics?


What I meant was that tackles do not determine skill.


Really??? If tackles do not determine skill at the LB position, what the hell does? It is not the fault of the linebacker that his offense stinks. So what if that is the reason he has so many tackles, that just means he is controlling the only part of the game he can.


Last edited by planc33 on Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:04 pm; edited 1 time in total
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gbmurphy


Joined: 30 Dec 2005
Posts: 397
Location: Dallas
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hawk may in fact be Brian Bosworth....possibly. I think he's great though. But I also think that Mario Williams has a chance to give us our only great DL since Reggie White, and I am sure that Abdul Hodge has NFL Pro Bowl ability, and intensity. I just worry he will be snatched up before #37. I like the other guys too, D'Qwell, Carpenter, and Ernie Sims, but let's say I wouldn't bet as much of my Bodog money on them becoming Pro Bowlers as I would Abdul. D'Qwell I still might wager some cash though......great name for a linebacker too!
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hauschild


Joined: 23 Feb 2005
Posts: 14491
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trade Down!
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MadWisconian


Joined: 02 Feb 2006
Posts: 1685
Location: Washington, D.C.
PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
Really??? If tackles do not determine skill at the LB position, what the hell does? It is not the fault of the linebacker that his offense stinks. So what if that is the reason he has so many tackles, that just means he is controlling the only part of the game he can.


Not to put words in anyones mouth, but I think he means tackles alone do not determine whether one LB is better over the other. If that is an accurate interpretation, then I agree with that.

Quote:
Trade Down!


I agree. If msmre is correct that drafting is all about the skill of the GM, then the great Ted Thompson, who's supposedly a draft genius, should be able to determine which of those later 1st rounders and 2nd rounders will be the ones that turn out to be studs. Then we'll end up with more impact players.
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daintrain28


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Joined: 04 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hauschild wrote:
Trade Down!


Amen Haus!
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Gilbert Burger


Joined: 23 Dec 2005
Posts: 3145
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PostPosted: Fri Feb 10, 2006 3:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree. If msmre is correct that drafting is all about the skill of the GM, then the great Ted Thompson, who's supposedly a draft genius, should be able to determine which of those later 1st rounders and 2nd rounders will be the ones that turn out to be studs. Then we'll end up with more impact players.[/quote]

Agreed. I think if we pass the chance to pick up extra 1st day picks to draft AJ Hawk, we may live to regret it.
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