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What is your ideal (semi-realistic) draft day trade?
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UTMoc10


Joined: 18 Oct 2009
Posts: 3027
Location: Jackson, MI
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 11:17 am    Post subject: What is your ideal (semi-realistic) draft day trade? Reply with quote

We all love discussing trade up's and trade down's during the NFL Draft. I love crunching the numbers of the draft chart and wheeling and dealing picks to see what I can come up with. So instead of clogging the draft thread about prospects, I thought I'd start something new.

Let me preface this whole scenario by giving my brief thoughts on the class as a whole. This draft doesn't have much top end talent like some years, imo. It also doesn't have much of a talent gap from 5-15 or 16-40.
Saying that I'm not a massive fan of anyone I think will be available at #5. Lattimore's injury bug bothers me, I think Adams while a good S may have hit his ceiling already, not to mention we have Byard who was a good FS in college, Searcy who just took a pay cut and Cyprien who just signed, Hooker has limited production, Allen has shoulder issues, etc... #5 may be too much for a WR as well.
What this draft does have is pretty good depth specifically in areas we need such as DB, TE, WR because of this I'm all for trading down and collecting picks.

Right now the rumor is Cleveland and Jets are talking trade which makes me sad.
Jets wants #12, #33, #108 for #6 (+258 pts for Jets)
Cleveland wants to give up #12, #52, #145 for #6 (+13.5 pts for Jets)

If the Jets cave to Cleveland's price I'll be extremely surprised. I also think the Jets may be engaging in talks with the Browns as a smokescreen so they don't get jumped. So let's just say Cleveland catches wind NYJ really wants Trubisky and pull the trigger to move up to #5.

So... let's take a look back at our Titans->Browns draft day trade last year.
Cleveland gave up #8 (1400 pts) and #176 (21 pts.) to the Titans for
Titans #15 (1050 pts), #76 (210 pts) and a future 2nd (420pts.) They fleeced us for 249 pts. For reference 249 pts is equivalent to #68. So I'm going to try to aim for a 249 pt win for us this year.

Now, I would LOVE to take both of Cleveland's 2nd rounders but we would have to sweeten our side a little. So I got thinking, maybe #5, #83, #164, future 7th for #12, #33, #52.

Titans #5 (1700 pts) #83 (175 pts) #164 (25.8 pts) future 7th (8 pts) for
Cleveland #12 (1,200 pts) #33 (580 pts) #52 (380 pts) = difference of 251.2 pts. About as close as you can get to our deal last year.

Why would Cleveland give up both of their 2nd rounders? With the trade, Cleveland would have a stud in Myles Garrett, hopeful franchise QB in Trubisky, 2 3rd's (#65, #83) 1 4th (#108), 4 5ths (#145, #164, #175, #181), and 2 6ths (#185, #188) They would have plenty of ammo to trade back up into the 2nd round if they want and with the depth of the draft they could still come away with a starter or two in the 3rd round.

Now let's take some time to reset here.

Titans now have #12, #18, #33, #52, #100, #124, #214.

What about a trade down at #18? Glad you asked. Denver has been rumored to want a RB and Cook may very well be available at #18. The problem for Denver is a Dalvin Cook-Jamies Winston connection between them and #18. So John Elway comes calling and we make a deal.

Titans trade #18 (900 pts) and #100 (100pts) for
Broncos #20 (850 pts) and #82 (180 pts) +30 pts for Titans.

Time to reset again.

Titans START with #5, #18, #83, #100, #124, #164, #214 -4 picks in top 101
Titans END with #12, #20, #33, #52, #82, #101, #124, #214 -6 picks in top 101

There is still a possibility of trading down from #33 and picking up a late 3rd/early 4th but I'm going to stop there.

https://www.draftwired2.com:8443/apps/DraftWired I used this website as a basis for all of this. The trade gadget it awesome.
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titanrick


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Joined: 17 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read something yesterday about the possibility of us trading with Seattle. We would get their 1st round pick and Richard Sherman. They would move up to our (18) pick and get Spain thrown in. Seems to me like an outrageous deal in our favor, but if they're really trying not to pay Sherman, maybe that's the incentive to deal for them.
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Mesa_Titan


Joined: 20 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

titanrick wrote:
I read something yesterday about the possibility of us trading with Seattle. We would get their 1st round pick and Richard Sherman. They would move up to our (1Cool pick and get Spain thrown in. Seems to me like an outrageous deal in our favor, but if they're really trying not to pay Sherman, maybe that's the incentive to deal for them.


I would love this so, so much.
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VY


Joined: 26 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mesa_Titan wrote:
titanrick wrote:
I read something yesterday about the possibility of us trading with Seattle. We would get their 1st round pick and Richard Sherman. They would move up to our (1Cool pick and get Spain thrown in. Seems to me like an outrageous deal in our favor, but if they're really trying not to pay Sherman, maybe that's the incentive to deal for them.


I would love this so, so much.


Would be interesting for sure, though if Spain has another solid year he'll probably be in line for a hefty pay raise. Not on the level of Sherman but wouldn't come cheap.
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ragevsuall17


Joined: 26 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 6:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spain is not the level player Sherman is, but he's proven invaluable to the line and the whole offense. Schwenke filled in for him well, but he's also not an option anymore. It would leave us with a competition between two unproven players and /or a rookie.

Don't get me wrong... I make the trade in a heart beat, but it's not as lopsided as it seems on the surface. If Sherman is being valued as a mid 2nd rounder, it values Spain as a mid 3rd (which I think is fair for both given the value of their current contracts and likelihood of ease and cost of extensions).
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ttitansfan4life


Joined: 30 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Still going with a Cleveland trade. #5 for #12 and a 2nd.
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Ockham


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 8:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trade #5 to New Orleans for #11 and #32

Trade #18 and #100 to Cleveland for #33 and #52

Titans end up with:

#11
#32
#33
#52
#83
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Titans fan 617


Joined: 12 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 24, 2017 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

This drafts weird for me as a fan. We really need a CB bad IMO. We really don't know how Sims will do even though he had a good finish to end the season. Logan Ryan isn't really a number 1 so we really need a CB.

With that said for me I hope we trade with Cleveland to move back and gain a 2nd round pick. If we could take Davis at 12 and if some how OJ Howard fell to 18 that be a real good 1st round.

CB is suppose to be a deep draft so I'd hope with that 2nd round pick we hit on a CB
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FutureIsWhite


Joined: 19 Mar 2007
Posts: 208
PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 1:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As much as I would love to grab a second round pick or an early 3rd I think this Titans team should stick with 5/18 or try to trade down from 5 to 12 and grab one of the browns 2nds. This team is really a WR and Corner away from not only competing in the AFC south but the AFC as a whole. That being said id rather them draft 2 studs who could contribute right away rather then trade down and draft a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round guys hoping they hit and lets face it this franchise has been terrible at drafting 2nd round picks. This team is ready now..

Qb-Mariota(if he stays healthy he's a top ten qb )
RBS- top 3 running back duo in the league
TE(Top 5 tight end)
Line(Top line now that cowboys lost a few starters)
WRS( Mathews only proven guy right now)

Add Ross,davis,or Williams at 18 and the Titans just filled there only weakness on offense.

Defense
Front 7- could use an upgrade at MLB but overall this front 7 is a top 15 unit

Secondary- Love the Ryan pickup but this is clearly a big weakness for this team

This Defense has guys that are stars or above average (Casey,Orakpo,Morgan,Ryan,Williamson)
That being said if this team adds Lattimore or Adams at 5 we now filled our biggest need on the defense side of the ball.

So the only trade I can see or would want happening is

Titans trade 5 to Browns for 12 and 33

We could still get fill both needs at 12 and 18 while landing a early 2nd for luxury purposes.
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Justin615$


Joined: 02 Aug 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 6:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

#5 for #12 and #33 and if possibly a 3rd or 4th next year.
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ragevsuall17


Joined: 26 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ideal scenario for me would be both the Browns and Seahawks trades (if there is any truth to either).

Trade 5 for 12, 52, a 5th, and a 2nd next year
Trade 18 and Spain for 26 and Sherman.

We have the ammo to move up a few spots from 12 and get Williams or wait to draft Ross at 12.

Draft BPA at 26... someone like Reddick, Njoku, Baker, etc. (or someone who falls, a guy like Allen, Barnett, etc)

We could realistically walk away with 3 starters* after day 1... Williams, Reddick, and Sherman (and an extra 2nd in next year's draft).

We use the rest of the picks to fill needs at BPA, or target players who have drop (Jones?)
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TitanSS


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 10:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Am I the only one who doesn't want Sherman? He's on the downhill slope while our team is on the uphill rise. Sure, right now he's better than anything we have. In two years is he really more valuable to this team than Quinton Spain and whoever we could get in the 2nd round, or whatever he was valued at?

When Revis was a year younger than Sherman is now, he had to be released because the Bucs couldn't find a trade partner for a 16 mil avg salary, but we're giving a 2nd round value on a 14 mil avg salary for Sherman?
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TheDeeeeej


Joined: 02 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 11:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Any trade that involves Spain is bogus imo.

No way we mess with our OL for Sherman. Makes no sense.
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ragevsuall17


Joined: 26 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TitanSS wrote:
Am I the only one who doesn't want Sherman? He's on the downhill slope while our team is on the uphill rise. Sure, right now he's better than anything we have. In two years is he really more valuable to this team than Quinton Spain and whoever we could get in the 2nd round, or whatever he was valued at?

When Revis was a year younger than Sherman is now, he had to be released because the Bucs couldn't find a trade partner for a 16 mil avg salary, but we're giving a 2nd round value on a 14 mil avg salary for Sherman?


Assuming Spain is worth a 3rd... and believe the draft trade chart, Sherman values as a 2nd round player. Bottom line is we get a proven corner to play opposite Ryan for the next 3 years. And we don't lose a pick... we move down 8 spots in the 1st.

I mentioned how Spain has proven invaluable to offensive continuity, but he's not an elite level player. Schwenke filled in for him last year without a noticeable drop off in offensive production. Spain's biggest positive is that he's under cheap team control for the next 2 years... but if anyone thinks he's significantly above replacement level, I'll have to call you out for homerism.

Funny you mention Revis being cut, but fail to mention him being traded the year before (at that same age as Sherman) for a 1st and a 4th. You also failed to mention or consider the reasons for him being cut a year later... like how Lovie Smith was hired that offseason, and a top cover corner isn't a fit or need for a cover-2 defense, and couldn't justify 16M for that. You also fail to mention that he continued a great career with 2 more great seasons in NE and NY in 14 and 15.

But what am I think, right? Eliminate the immediate need for CB and keep 2 picks in the 1st? Makes no sense to give up a near replacement level player for that.
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VY


Joined: 26 Nov 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 25, 2017 12:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ragevsuall17 wrote:
Ideal scenario for me would be both the Browns and Seahawks trades (if there is any truth to either).

Trade 5 for 12, 52, a 5th, and a 2nd next year
Trade 18 and Spain for 26 and Sherman.

We have the ammo to move up a few spots from 12 and get Williams or wait to draft Ross at 12.

Draft BPA at 26... someone like Reddick, Njoku, Baker, etc. (or someone who falls, a guy like Allen, Barnett, etc)

We could realistically walk away with 3 starters* after day 1... Williams, Reddick, and Sherman (and an extra 2nd in next year's draft).

We use the rest of the picks to fill needs at BPA, or target players who have drop (Jones?)


So do you consider an OG replacement for Spain in the draft at 26 (like Lamp) or at 52? I'm not sure if T-Rex Tretola will ever be starting caliber, and it kind of seems like we'd be improving the defensive backfield at the expense of the line.

I think overall the plan could work out really well, I just worry about who steps in. Tretola and Lelito are unknowns at this point. Drafting one is always a possibility but doing so with a higher pick doesn't make much sense. Not much out there in FA, but maybe a camp cut could step in at replacement level.
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