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Success of First Round Picks By Position

 
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elliot878


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Joined: 03 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 4:05 pm    Post subject: Success of First Round Picks By Position Reply with quote

Espn's page 2 offered up a great article that details drafts from 1989-2003 and judges the picks by position. It gives the position, players names taken in the first round by each year, and whether or not they were a bust. There is a criteria for a player being labelled a bust. Lucky for us the positions we seem to be keying on, within the forum, and hopefully that our front office are also keying on (DT, DE, S, LB) for a first round selection have very low bust rates, and also high pro-bowl rates for those players taken at the position. here's part of the summary:

Quote:
First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent


First-Round Pro Bowl Percentages
(Percentage of players making at least one Pro Bowl)
S -- 53 percent
DT -- 40 percent
LB -- 39 percent
RB -- 36 percent
DE -- 33 percent
QB -- 33 percent
WR -- 31 percent
OL -- 26 percent
CB -- 23 percent


http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=kluck/wrapup/070425&sportCat=nfl

take a look, i thought it was an interesting read, and a nice confidence booster if we do go to defense in the first round like we should.



i probly did a poor job explaining but if you take a look at the article its pretty self-explanatory. at the end of the summary it offers who (by their research and percentages) has the best chance at success out of this draft class.
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champ+jay+al=SB


Joined: 10 Mar 2007
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Location: Boulder
PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I read that, it was very interesting
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darkotto23


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Location: South Florida
PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 6:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very Happy Very Happy just another reason to get griffin at 21
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AnAngryAmerican


Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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Location: Loveland, CO
PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
First-Round Bust Percentages
QB -- 53 percent
RB -- 49 percent
WR -- 45 percent
DT -- 33 percent
OL -- 31 percent
DE -- 31 percent
CB -- 29 percent
LB -- 16 percent
S -- 11 percent


First-Round Pro Bowl Percentages
(Percentage of players making at least one Pro Bowl)
S -- 53 percent
DT -- 40 percent
LB -- 39 percent
RB -- 36 percent
DE -- 33 percent
QB -- 33 percent
WR -- 31 percent
OL -- 26 percent
CB -- 23 percent


That's interesting. I do wonder, however, what is their definition of a "bust?"

I think QB is the riskiest position - you get Peyton Manning or Ryan Leaf, Carson Palmer or Tim Couch, Troy Aikman or Joey Harrington, Brady Quinn or JaMarcus Russell.....
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big_palooka:

bhslinebacker wrote:
AAA is right, as he usually is.
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marktheshark


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Location: NYC
PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

darkotto23 wrote:
Very Happy Very Happy just another reason to get griffin at 21


Yeah dude!. Very Happy
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broncos67


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 8:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes I agree, I want Griffin or a lesser hyped DE at 21.
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darkotto23


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 10:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we should tell shanny this Very Happy
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AnAngryAmerican


Joined: 23 Apr 2006
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Location: Loveland, CO
PostPosted: Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

darkotto23 wrote:
Very Happy Very Happy just another reason to get griffin at 21


marktheshark wrote:
Yeah dude!. Very Happy


broncos67 wrote:
Yes I agree, I want Griffin or a lesser hyped DE at 21.


darkotto23 wrote:
we should tell shanny this Very Happy


I wouldn't get your hopes up guys. Of course I cannot be sure and even though for a long while I thought we would go S in the 1st, I don't see it happening. But you never know......
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big_palooka:

bhslinebacker wrote:
AAA is right, as he usually is.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

yea i dont see us taking a S first round either, maybe not even first day. who knows though, but i do expect a D or O line man round one to be honest. id prefer DT, but that article gave me some hope as to maybe even though were in a in between spot maybe we do end up with a guy who will succeed...at least history shows hope for success
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darkotto23


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 1:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i can happen since there is so much depth at DE

unless jaamal anderson falls to 21(which is very unlikely) I honestly dont see us geting a DE in the 1st after the top 3 DE's (adams,carriker and anderson)
the rest are pretty much the same, jarvis moss isnt that much better than victor abiamiri or tim crowder
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 26, 2007 6:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Then again, if you notice S is the only position that hasnt really been mentioned in all the discussions. Kinda makes me think that we might just pick up a S because no one expects us too.
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