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Draft class is more than one pick
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BigBen7


Joined: 01 Jan 2006
Posts: 21861
Location: England
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:38 am    Post subject: Draft class is more than one pick Reply with quote

Draft class is more than one pick

http://news.steelers.com/article/75798/
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treat88


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 6722
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 10:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

From the article quoted above,

Quote:
In total, the Steelers have made 34 second-day draft picks since 2000, and from those they have found four starters


This makes me wonder two things:

#1 What is the league average for finding second-day starters?

#2 Why would Colbert want to acquire more mid-round picks if he has such a poor success rate?

To me it continues to reinforce the wisdom of aggressively trading up in rounds 1 and 2.
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StillersFury


Joined: 01 Jan 2007
Posts: 3965
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

2 Points

-1st Point Steelers suck on 2nd day of drafts

11 players drafted AFTER Orein Harris made major contributions for teams last year

2nd Point...Those draft lists dont include UDFAS

Parker Vinnie Krieder Harrison Reed Washington Madison
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gseabrook26


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
Posts: 1961
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

treat88 wrote:
From the article quoted above,

Quote:
In total, the Steelers have made 34 second-day draft picks since 2000, and from those they have found four starters


This makes me wonder two things:

#1 What is the league average for finding second-day starters?

#2 Why would Colbert want to acquire more mid-round picks if he has such a poor success rate?

To me it continues to reinforce the wisdom of aggressively trading up in rounds 1 and 2.

I agree that there's no need to have multiple picks in rounds 5-7. However, would you prefer trading up in the first and having to likely give up a 2nd rounder, or trading down in the first, picking up a 3rd round and then trading our 2 3rds for a 2nd or a 3rd and a 2nd to move up in the 2nd round?
If it was up to me I'd trade down then trade up. We might not even have to give up our 2 3rds if we get an extra from a trade down. If we packaged our first 4th and our 2nd we could move up into the late first, early 2nd, and if we packaged our 3rd and our first 5th we could move up into the late 2nd, early 3rd.
Im really hoping by the end of day 1 we have 4 players drafted and on day 2 we'd still have a couple mid rounders that have a chance at making the team.
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treat88


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 6722
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 11:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

StillersFury wrote:
-1st Point Steelers suck on 2nd day of drafts


I'd really love to see something that compares our average success rate, measured in terms of second-day picks becoming starters, vs league average.

It may be the perception of all fans that their team sucks at Day 2 picks simply because they so rarely pan out.

Quote:
If it was up to me I'd trade down then trade up.


The only player I would move up for is Jamaal Anderson and I would only give up our third to do it.

If that is not successful or feasible, down and up works for me. I really want two impact players and a 2nd year starter if we can swing it.
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coalregion


Joined: 05 Apr 2007
Posts: 124
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I won't be surprised to see more younger players/rooks get a shot with tomlin. cowher seemed bullheaded (reid vs coke returning punts) when it came to puttin players on the field.
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jebrick


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
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Location: Indianapolis
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just picked out 2 very good teams to look at their day 2 averages. I did this because you want to emulate the good teams not not the bad. These are draft picks on the roster in 2006 or starters that have left. These are day 2 picks only.

On Roster is a non-starter on the roster for 2006.

Baltimore Ravens: On Roster: 10 Starters:7* Total picks: 37
including Ovie Mughelli,Chester Taylor,Adalius Thomas all left via FA

NE Patriots: On Roster: 6* Starters: 8* Total Picks: 41
Including Dan Klecko,Tully Banta-Cain,David Givens who have left in FA or trade.

I knew that Baltimore did a good job drafting so the numbers did not surprise me. For NE the amount of starters and the quality of the starters that they get late are amazing.

Ravens had 19% of day 2 picks become starters in the time frame.
NE had 19.5%
Steelers had 11.75%
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Last edited by jebrick on Tue Apr 24, 2007 3:08 pm; edited 1 time in total
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 2:58 pm    Post subject: hmm Reply with quote

coalregion wrote:
I won't be surprised to see more younger players/rooks get a shot with tomlin. cowher seemed bullheaded (reid vs coke returning punts) when it came to puttin players on the field.


The only reason willie parker and ben got shots because the people in front of them got hurt
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FourThreeMafia


Joined: 28 Sep 2006
Posts: 63655
Location: East of Sixburgh
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 3:17 pm    Post subject: Re: hmm Reply with quote

STELRFAN wrote:
coalregion wrote:
I won't be surprised to see more younger players/rooks get a shot with tomlin. cowher seemed bullheaded (reid vs coke returning punts) when it came to puttin players on the field.


The only reason willie parker and ben got shots because the people in front of them got hurt


Umm, Willie won the starting job in the 2005 offseason. He ran over the Buffalo Bills in the last game of 2004, and won the job going into 2005. He split alot of time with Staley and Bettis, but he was still the main back.

And Ben wouldve been in by midseason of 2004, because we probably wouldve been 2-6 at that point with Maddox behind center.
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jebrick


Joined: 10 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 3:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Now lets look at some bad teams. Cards and Lions I would say are the worst run teams.

Steelers 11.75%
Cards have 3 out of 31 for 9.7%
Lions are 3 out of 29 for 10.3% (Lions could be 13.8 if R. Droughns was counted in their starters but I think they cut him so he never started for them.)

The big difference for me is the amount of day 2 picks. NE had 41 and Baltimore had 38.

My bet is that the Steelers re on the low end of the league average for day 2 picks becoming starters but that may take more time than I have to make.
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Irish 11


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Joined: 14 Feb 2006
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 3:54 pm    Post subject: Re: hmm Reply with quote

FourThreeMafia wrote:
STELRFAN wrote:
coalregion wrote:
I won't be surprised to see more younger players/rooks get a shot with tomlin. cowher seemed bullheaded (reid vs coke returning punts) when it came to puttin players on the field.


The only reason willie parker and ben got shots because the people in front of them got hurt


Umm, Willie won the starting job in the 2005 offseason. He ran over the Buffalo Bills in the last game of 2004, and won the job going into 2005. He split alot of time with Staley and Bettis, but he was still the main back.

And Ben wouldve been in by midseason of 2004, because we probably wouldve been 2-6 at that point with Maddox behind center.


http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2145853&CMP=OTC-DT9705204233

Quote:
With Bettis and Duce Staley sidelined, second-year running back Willie Parker will start the season-opener Spet. 11 against the Tennessee Titans.


Parker got the starting nod due to injury, but he played so well early in the season that he kept the starting job.

I agree that Ben probably would've been the starter by midseason in 2004 though, Maddox was off to a horrid start.
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STELRFAN


Joined: 13 Feb 2007
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:46 pm    Post subject: Re: hmm Reply with quote

FourThreeMafia wrote:
STELRFAN wrote:
coalregion wrote:
I won't be surprised to see more younger players/rooks get a shot with tomlin. cowher seemed bullheaded (reid vs coke returning punts) when it came to puttin players on the field.


The only reason willie parker and ben got shots because the people in front of them got hurt


Umm, Willie won the starting job in the 2005 offseason. He ran over the Buffalo Bills in the last game of 2004, and won the job going into 2005. He split alot of time with Staley and Bettis, but he was still the main back.

And Ben wouldve been in by midseason of 2004, because we probably wouldve been 2-6 at that point with Maddox behind center.


the reason i said that was because ole bill refused to play guys who had potential but not experience and willie didnt win the job jerome and duece got hurt he was the only healthy back available then when he deystroyed the titans bill knew he had to keep him in their and of course he deserved to be.

and as much as i like ben he was 3rd on the depth chart remember ? charlie got hurt so he was the only qb available with knowledge of the system some what so bill put him in that also was history. it didnt matter if the black and gold was 2-6 cowher if maddox and batch were healthy would not have put the kid in.
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Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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treat88


Joined: 03 Mar 2006
Posts: 6722
PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jebrick wrote:
Now lets look at some bad teams. Cards and Lions I would say are the worst run teams.

Steelers 11.75%
Cards have 3 out of 31 for 9.7%
Lions are 3 out of 29 for 10.3% (Lions could be 13.8 if R. Droughns was counted in their starters but I think they cut him so he never started for them.)

The big difference for me is the amount of day 2 picks. NE had 41 and Baltimore had 38.

My bet is that the Steelers re on the low end of the league average for day 2 picks becoming starters but that may take more time than I have to make.


So in the small sample size we have we have a low of 9.7% and a high of 19.5%. Assuming that is representative, and using a 15 % average success rate with 4 Day 2 picks per draft, a team can expect to find approximately 2 Day 2 starters every 3 years.

A team would be doing exceptionally well to find 1 Day 2 starter per draft.
Pretty poor odds even for the best run organizations.
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FourThreeMafia


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 4:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I forgot about those injuries to Bettis and Duce, but I remember at the end of the 2004 season, I was in the Army and my boy went to that Buffalo game and I talked him after it, and I told him Willie Parker would get alot of playing time in 2005...I was right.

Still, even if Duce and Bettis werent injured, I cant see how Willie wouldnt have won the job. Bettis was on his last legs and Duce was the NFL's ugliest cheerleader his entire tenure here. And he beat out Verron Haynes. who alot of people wanted to start over Parker.

EIther way, things worked out. I think Parker is better as a tandem back, not the feature back. Parker needs another back to help carry the load, and while I like Davenport, I dont think he is the answer. He isnt going to wear defenses down like Bettis did.
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STELRFAN


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 24, 2007 5:03 pm    Post subject: hmm Reply with quote

No davenport is kind of like an all purpose guy he does things very well hes just not great at any of them. And dont have him returning kicks anymore get a speedy return man back there but i would like to see him on third downs though willie could use some help but it might be a day 2 guy
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Jamal Lewis seems to be a real uphill runner now. That's a problem. Downhill runners are preferred. Maybe he is running in the wrong direction. Espn DJ Gallo
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